Profile - To The Moon

shshsh1

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- shshsh1shshsh1
  ·2022-05-18
  Seeking alpha again haha
  The Twitter-Tesla Downturn Is Merely The Start
  SummaryTesla's stock has suffered as a result of Elon Musk's planned Twitter acquisition and the potential for stock stales.Tesla has also been caught up with the overall tech stock sell-off, there's
  The Twitter-Tesla Downturn Is Merely The Start
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- shshsh1shshsh1
  ·2022-05-12
  Yet again.. seeking alpha lol
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- shshsh1shshsh1
  ·2022-05-08
  Oh it's from seekingalpha lol
  Tesla: Overvalued By 85.26% And Not A Technology Company
  SummaryMake no mistake, Tesla is a phenomenal company that has accomplished the unthinkable as it broke through extreme barriers of entry to disrupt the auto industry.Just because Tesla is a successfu
  Tesla: Overvalued By 85.26% And Not A Technology Company
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- shshsh1shshsh1
  ·2022-03-01
  Paid content?
  Tesla Is Still Fundamentally Overvalued
  Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock has lost about one-third of its value since hitting an all-time high of $1,222/share at the start of November.Tesla stock opened on Feb. 28 at $815. That’s still a market cap
  Tesla Is Still Fundamentally Overvalued
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- shshsh1shshsh1
  ·2022-02-10
  Lol. Not too long ago seeking alpha was saying pltr was $5..
  Palantir Is Set To Beat Free Cash Flow Expectations, Here's Why
  SummaryPalantir is expected to submit its earnings card on Thursday, February 17, 2022.Momentum in t
  Palantir Is Set To Beat Free Cash Flow Expectations, Here's Why
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- shshsh1shshsh1
  ·2022-02-05
  Didn't seeking alpha have an article saying pltr is only worth $5?
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- shshsh1shshsh1
  ·2022-01-24
  Wasn't seeking alpha saying the target is 5 dollars
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- shshsh1shshsh1
  ·2022-01-06
  Sti to lead the way
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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alpha again haha","listText":"Seeking alpha again haha","text":"Seeking alpha again haha","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9023387328","repostId":"1142044909","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1142044909","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1652887633,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1142044909?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-18 23:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Twitter-Tesla Downturn Is Merely The Start","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142044909","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryTesla's stock has suffered as a result of Elon Musk's planned Twitter acquisition and the potential for stock stales.Tesla has also been caught up with the overall tech stock sell-off, there's ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Tesla&#39;s stock has suffered as a result of Elon Musk&#39;s planned Twitter acquisition and the potential for stock stales.</li><li>Tesla has also been caught up with the overall tech stock sell-off, there&#39;s a cost to be viewed as a tech company.</li><li>Tesla has the risk of being popular among popular tech workers, which have suffered more heavily than other market workers.</li><li>We see Tesla as grossly overvalued and more likely to underperform from the market downturn.</li></ul><p>Tesla&#39;s (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock has suffered recently with the company&#39;s market cap dropping to less than $900 billion, after pressure from Elon Musk&#39;s Twitter (TWTR)investment and potential stock sales. Investors might be fooled into thinking that this short-term downturn from stock sales represents an investment opportunity, however, as we&#39;ll see, Tesla still remains significantly overvalued.</p><p>Tesla Volume Ramp</p><p>Tesla&#39;s ability to continue succeeding is based on ramping volume and succeeding with new models.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f7055187c8a6996ce847e2854565136\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla Volume Ramp - Tesla Investor Presentation</p><p>The company has been ramping up volume although its Shanghai factory has suffered from COVID-19 volatility. However, it&#39;s worth noting that the company&#39;s factories and focused capacity for the Model S/X/3 are effectively done. The company could ramp up the Model Y or other future projects, however, it shows the company sees demand for other vehicles as peaked.</p><p>An example of this can be seen on Tesla&#39;s website. The cheapest Model 3 has an estimated delivery date of Aug-Nov 2022. The top end has a Jun-Aug 2022 delivery date. The top end Model Y is Jul-Sep 2022. The company&#39;s backlog has decreased substantially from its prior backlogs, and especially with the potential for a weaker market, we see that weakness continuing.</p><p>With competition increasing significantly, we view Tesla&#39;s volume ramp as slowing down. It&#39;s telling that the company doesn&#39;t have any new factories planned for its Model 3/S/X.</p><p>Tesla Energy Storage/Alternatives</p><p>Tesla has numerous alternative businesses including energy storage and other alternative businesses.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c143000d4559bfef8336756f8721db1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla Alternative Businesses - Tesla Investor Presentation</p><p>The company&#39;s energy storage business is the bright spot in its alternatives business. The company has seen deployments increase 90% YoY. However, the company does have some risks to the business here. First, energy storage is a worse use of capital from a profit perspective versus building cars. Tesla itself has admitted that before.</p><p>That means that as long as there&#39;s volume demand for the company&#39;s cars, the company&#39;s energy storage will take a back seat. Second is the company&#39;s solar business. We&#39;ve discussed this before, but this business is negligible. It&#39;s decreasing in size, has a single-digit market share and no competitive advantage.</p><p>Tesla Insurance</p><p>Another development for Tesla is the company&#39;s announcement that it&#39;s launching an insurance business.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50de3780f98ffea0bd1f72d3395fe103\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Insurance Underwriting Results - PMR Law</p><p>Insurance isn&#39;t a high profit margin business. It relies on the generation of the float and the potential investments of the float to generate returns. A substantial insurance business can take advantage of a continuous float to invest and generate long-term returns without a significant negative impact to that float.</p><p>The takeaway here is that insurance companies operate off of scale. Travelers is the 10th largest insurance company in the world, insures more than 2 million vehicles. Even with 100% of U.S. Tesla owners getting insurance through Tesla, the company won&#39;t reach that number. More so, even if it did, the insurance business would only be valued at a few billion $ based on peers.</p><p>Warren Buffett whose Berkshire Hathaway owns GEICOrecently commented they don&#39;t expect Tesla to outperform here, given their data is mostly the same as the current insurers. Here, we believe the opposite is true. Not only will Tesla not outperform but the company could lose money or, in the event of a mistake, hurt a brand. We see three unique downsides for the company.</p><p>(1) Multi-line discount. Most major insurers offer to bundle home insurance with multiple cars, home insurance, umbrella insurance, etc. Tesla can&#39;t offer those discounts to customers meaning that offering competitively priced insurance will be more difficult.</p><p>(2) Reputation. It&#39;s no secret that Americans hate their insurance providers. Unfortunately, the premise of maximizing profits for the insurer is different from maximizing profits for the insuree. And oftentimes those competing interests come to clash at a tough time. Tesla will need to outperform its customers because of the reputational risk.</p><p>Someone who has a bad experience with Tesla insurance might leave Tesla overall. No one buys a different car because they dislike Progressive.</p><p>(3) Start Up Cost. Insurance is a crowded market without a high barrier to entry. However, Tesla will be spending substantial money to startup and join the industry. The company will be spending cost with no guarantee of returns, which is a risk for the company&#39;s future shareholder returns.</p><p>Tesla and Tech, A Unique Downside</p><p>We want to take the opportunity to highlight what we see as a unique risk for Tesla. The company is a massively popular car among tech industry employees. The carmaker has a &gt;10% market share in California versus a 2% market share in the United States. It&#39;s well known in the hub of the technology industry how popular the company&#39;s cars are.</p><p>However, we see this as a unique potential downside for Tesla. The company&#39;s cheapest cars clock in at 2x the cheapest car from the traditional low-cost manufacturers (Honda and Toyota) as the company has struggled to meet expectations. Even versus luxury manufacturers such as BMW and Mercedes, the company&#39;s cheapest car is more expensive.</p><p>More so, the tech industry has suffered. After leading the bull market for the last 5 years, the market is now down roughly 25%. Given Tesla&#39;s unique positioning to tech industry employees, we expect the downturn will hurt the demand for the company&#39;s products, especially higher end products.</p><p>Tesla Isn&#39;t Recession Proof</p><p>Tesla has reasonably strong cash and cash equivalents at roughly $18 billion. However, the car industry is incredibly capitally intensive, and losses ramp up significantly during a market downturn.</p><p>Through the 2008 recession, U.S.carmakers lost $10s of billions. Capitol obligations can be difficult to avoid in the industry with factories needing to be kept running because the cost of shutting them off is even more expensive. However, that doesn&#39;t mean that they&#39;re making a profit. Tesla hasn&#39;t actually had to face a market downturn yet.</p><p>We expect there are two factors here that will again make Tesla less likely to survive a recession.</p><p>(1) People cut spending during a recession. Tesla is effectively a luxury brand at its pricing. In 2008, Toyota outperformed. During an upcoming recession, we expect Tesla to similarly underperform in line with luxury brands. They also might be less willing to try the uncertainty of an electric vehicle.</p><p>(2) Capital growth. Tesla is focused on growing substantially, and as we saw above, has numerous factories that it&#39;s planning to build. Those capital obligations without production could cause the company to have higher losses than companies only maintaining existing factories. That risk is worth paying close attention to.</p><p><b>Thesis Risk</b></p><p>The largest risk to our thesis is that Tesla is a unique company that has a proven ability to outperform. The company, in many ways, defined electric vehicles as a segment, especially luxury vehicles, and the company&#39;s competitors have struggled to compete. There&#39;s no guarantee that the company can&#39;t continue increasing market share and returns.</p><p>Conclusion</p><p>Tesla is now 40% below its 52-week highs. The company&#39;s weakness was exacerbated by Elon Musk&#39;s ownership and his pledging of the company&#39;s stock against his Twitter acquisition. That sell-off accelerated as a result of the general technology sell-off in the markets. Despite this underperformance, we see that as just the start.</p><p>The company is showing peak demand with no additional factories planned for the Model S/X/3. Most vehicle purchases can see delivery with is shorter delays than other manufacturers&#39; vehicles such as Toyota&#39;s RAV4. We also view the company&#39;s position in the tech markets as a unique risk to its business model. As a result, we continue to recommend against investing in Tesla.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Twitter-Tesla Downturn Is Merely The Start</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Twitter-Tesla Downturn Is Merely The Start\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-18 23:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4512479-twitter-tesla-downturn-is-merely-start><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryTesla's stock has suffered as a result of Elon Musk's planned Twitter acquisition and the potential for stock stales.Tesla has also been caught up with the overall tech stock sell-off, there's ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4512479-twitter-tesla-downturn-is-merely-start\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","TWTR":"Twitter"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4512479-twitter-tesla-downturn-is-merely-start","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142044909","content_text":"SummaryTesla's stock has suffered as a result of Elon Musk's planned Twitter acquisition and the potential for stock stales.Tesla has also been caught up with the overall tech stock sell-off, there's a cost to be viewed as a tech company.Tesla has the risk of being popular among popular tech workers, which have suffered more heavily than other market workers.We see Tesla as grossly overvalued and more likely to underperform from the market downturn.Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock has suffered recently with the company's market cap dropping to less than $900 billion, after pressure from Elon Musk's Twitter (TWTR)investment and potential stock sales. Investors might be fooled into thinking that this short-term downturn from stock sales represents an investment opportunity, however, as we'll see, Tesla still remains significantly overvalued.Tesla Volume RampTesla's ability to continue succeeding is based on ramping volume and succeeding with new models.Tesla Volume Ramp - Tesla Investor PresentationThe company has been ramping up volume although its Shanghai factory has suffered from COVID-19 volatility. However, it's worth noting that the company's factories and focused capacity for the Model S/X/3 are effectively done. The company could ramp up the Model Y or other future projects, however, it shows the company sees demand for other vehicles as peaked.An example of this can be seen on Tesla's website. The cheapest Model 3 has an estimated delivery date of Aug-Nov 2022. The top end has a Jun-Aug 2022 delivery date. The top end Model Y is Jul-Sep 2022. The company's backlog has decreased substantially from its prior backlogs, and especially with the potential for a weaker market, we see that weakness continuing.With competition increasing significantly, we view Tesla's volume ramp as slowing down. It's telling that the company doesn't have any new factories planned for its Model 3/S/X.Tesla Energy Storage/AlternativesTesla has numerous alternative businesses including energy storage and other alternative businesses.Tesla Alternative Businesses - Tesla Investor PresentationThe company's energy storage business is the bright spot in its alternatives business. The company has seen deployments increase 90% YoY. However, the company does have some risks to the business here. First, energy storage is a worse use of capital from a profit perspective versus building cars. Tesla itself has admitted that before.That means that as long as there's volume demand for the company's cars, the company's energy storage will take a back seat. Second is the company's solar business. We've discussed this before, but this business is negligible. It's decreasing in size, has a single-digit market share and no competitive advantage.Tesla InsuranceAnother development for Tesla is the company's announcement that it's launching an insurance business.Insurance Underwriting Results - PMR LawInsurance isn't a high profit margin business. It relies on the generation of the float and the potential investments of the float to generate returns. A substantial insurance business can take advantage of a continuous float to invest and generate long-term returns without a significant negative impact to that float.The takeaway here is that insurance companies operate off of scale. Travelers is the 10th largest insurance company in the world, insures more than 2 million vehicles. Even with 100% of U.S. Tesla owners getting insurance through Tesla, the company won't reach that number. More so, even if it did, the insurance business would only be valued at a few billion $ based on peers.Warren Buffett whose Berkshire Hathaway owns GEICOrecently commented they don't expect Tesla to outperform here, given their data is mostly the same as the current insurers. Here, we believe the opposite is true. Not only will Tesla not outperform but the company could lose money or, in the event of a mistake, hurt a brand. We see three unique downsides for the company.(1) Multi-line discount. Most major insurers offer to bundle home insurance with multiple cars, home insurance, umbrella insurance, etc. Tesla can't offer those discounts to customers meaning that offering competitively priced insurance will be more difficult.(2) Reputation. It's no secret that Americans hate their insurance providers. Unfortunately, the premise of maximizing profits for the insurer is different from maximizing profits for the insuree. And oftentimes those competing interests come to clash at a tough time. Tesla will need to outperform its customers because of the reputational risk.Someone who has a bad experience with Tesla insurance might leave Tesla overall. No one buys a different car because they dislike Progressive.(3) Start Up Cost. Insurance is a crowded market without a high barrier to entry. However, Tesla will be spending substantial money to startup and join the industry. The company will be spending cost with no guarantee of returns, which is a risk for the company's future shareholder returns.Tesla and Tech, A Unique DownsideWe want to take the opportunity to highlight what we see as a unique risk for Tesla. The company is a massively popular car among tech industry employees. The carmaker has a >10% market share in California versus a 2% market share in the United States. It's well known in the hub of the technology industry how popular the company's cars are.However, we see this as a unique potential downside for Tesla. The company's cheapest cars clock in at 2x the cheapest car from the traditional low-cost manufacturers (Honda and Toyota) as the company has struggled to meet expectations. Even versus luxury manufacturers such as BMW and Mercedes, the company's cheapest car is more expensive.More so, the tech industry has suffered. After leading the bull market for the last 5 years, the market is now down roughly 25%. Given Tesla's unique positioning to tech industry employees, we expect the downturn will hurt the demand for the company's products, especially higher end products.Tesla Isn't Recession ProofTesla has reasonably strong cash and cash equivalents at roughly $18 billion. However, the car industry is incredibly capitally intensive, and losses ramp up significantly during a market downturn.Through the 2008 recession, U.S.carmakers lost $10s of billions. Capitol obligations can be difficult to avoid in the industry with factories needing to be kept running because the cost of shutting them off is even more expensive. However, that doesn't mean that they're making a profit. Tesla hasn't actually had to face a market downturn yet.We expect there are two factors here that will again make Tesla less likely to survive a recession.(1) People cut spending during a recession. Tesla is effectively a luxury brand at its pricing. In 2008, Toyota outperformed. During an upcoming recession, we expect Tesla to similarly underperform in line with luxury brands. They also might be less willing to try the uncertainty of an electric vehicle.(2) Capital growth. Tesla is focused on growing substantially, and as we saw above, has numerous factories that it's planning to build. Those capital obligations without production could cause the company to have higher losses than companies only maintaining existing factories. That risk is worth paying close attention to.Thesis RiskThe largest risk to our thesis is that Tesla is a unique company that has a proven ability to outperform. The company, in many ways, defined electric vehicles as a segment, especially luxury vehicles, and the company's competitors have struggled to compete. There's no guarantee that the company can't continue increasing market share and returns.ConclusionTesla is now 40% below its 52-week highs. The company's weakness was exacerbated by Elon Musk's ownership and his pledging of the company's stock against his Twitter acquisition. That sell-off accelerated as a result of the general technology sell-off in the markets. Despite this underperformance, we see that as just the start.The company is showing peak demand with no additional factories planned for the Model S/X/3. Most vehicle purchases can see delivery with is shorter delays than other manufacturers' vehicles such as Toyota's RAV4. We also view the company's position in the tech markets as a unique risk to its business model. As a result, we continue to recommend against investing in Tesla.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":427,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9064107072,"gmtCreate":1652285665996,"gmtModify":1676535069479,"author":{"id":"4102503291622030","authorId":"4102503291622030","name":"shshsh1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3822ceefb8038dc7ae984cff6c96ebab","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4102503291622030","authorIdStr":"4102503291622030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yet again.. seeking alpha lol","listText":"Yet again.. seeking alpha lol","text":"Yet again.. seeking alpha lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9064107072","repostId":"2234623829","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":410,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9062986056,"gmtCreate":1651987375775,"gmtModify":1676535009895,"author":{"id":"4102503291622030","authorId":"4102503291622030","name":"shshsh1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3822ceefb8038dc7ae984cff6c96ebab","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4102503291622030","authorIdStr":"4102503291622030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh it's from seekingalpha lol","listText":"Oh it's from seekingalpha lol","text":"Oh it's from seekingalpha lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9062986056","repostId":"1131831539","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1131831539","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1651980653,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1131831539?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-08 11:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Overvalued By 85.26% And Not A Technology Company","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131831539","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryMake no mistake, Tesla is a phenomenal company that has accomplished the unthinkable as it broke through extreme barriers of entry to disrupt the auto industry.Just because Tesla is a successfu","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Make no mistake, Tesla is a phenomenal company that has accomplished the unthinkable as it broke through extreme barriers of entry to disrupt the auto industry.</li><li>Just because Tesla is a successful company that is causing automotive titans to change from combustible engines to EVs doesn&#39;t mean Tesla&#39;s stock is a good investment today.</li><li>100% of gross profit and net income is generated from the automotive sector as Tesla&#39;s other businesses lose money, making them an automobile manufacturing company, not a technology company.</li><li>I compared Tesla&#39;s metrics to the auto industry and big tech and the results are the same, Tesla&#39;s valuation is egregious.</li></ul><p>It&#39;s rare to find companies that have cult-like followings with loyalists willing to pay any price for its stock. The debate regarding Tesla, Inc.&#39;s (NASDAQ:TSLA) valuation continues to be a topic of conversation between the bulls and the bears. Oneside argues that TSLA&#39;s financial growth and future prospects, including FSD, insurance, and robotaxis, justify the current $902.12 billion valuations, while others argue that the current financials and cult-like following have led to a massive overvaluation in TSLA&#39;s stock.</p><p>I tip my hat to Elon Musk, as his accomplishments are second to none. When others called him crazy, Mr. Musk chose one of the hardest industries to compete in, started TSLA from the ground up, went to battle against the auto manufacturers, and succeeded. TSLA is one of the rare success stories that has truly shaped an industry, and the barriers of entry that were overcome are astonishing. TSLA didn&#39;t have the capital, manufacturing, credibility, or the infrastructure that its competitors did, yet they found a way to succeed. If the odds weren&#39;t enough which TSLA faced, they accomplished their goals without a combustible engine and pioneered an entirely new sector within the automotive industry.</p><p>Just because TSLA is a great company, it doesn&#39;t mean TSLA has a great stock, or it isn&#39;t overvalued. I am not bearish on TSLA the company because I believe they still have a long runway of growth ahead of them, but I am bearish on the valuation. Prior to leaving a comment on why I am wrong, please read the article and think about the metrics I am citing; then, I will happily discuss any viewpoints about the analysis.</p><p><b>Tesla Vs. The World In The Automotive Sector</b></p><p>It feels like TSLA vs. the world whenever TSLA is discussed. Discussing who makes a better automobile is a matter of opinion, and everyone is correct because it&#39;s their opinion. If person A thinks TSLA makes the best car and person B thinks Mercedes Benz makes the best car, they are both correct. Debating over this is pointless, so let&#39;s look at the raw numbers.</p><p>TSLA has a larger market cap than the combination ofToyota(TM),Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY),Daimler(OTCPK:DDAIF),BMW(OTCPK:BMWYY),General Motors(GM),Ford(F),Honda(HMC),Ferrari(RACE),Nissan(OTCPK:NSANY),Subaru(OTCPK:FUJHY),Volvo(OTCPK:VOLAF), andMazda(OTCPK:MZDAY). TSLA&#39;s market cap is currently $986.92 billion, while the combination of these 12 companies is $777.41 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff930d2442bf282c1bd880cca408eb94\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steven Fiorillo</p><p>The P/S ratio is often cited to justify the valuation. The combination of TM, VWAGY, DDAIF, BMWYY, GM, F, HMC, RACE, NSANY, FUJHY, VOLAF, and MZDAY has generated $1.38 trillion in revenue over the TTM, putting their P/S at 0.56, while TSLA has generated $62.19 billion in revenue and has a 15.87 P/S.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9b9661fde232925a758c38fd2e93f36\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha</p><p>As a combined entity, these 12 companies have generated $118.29 billion in net income, while TSLA has produced $8.4 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d25806eb839eb9ca2b4ef3c24218048c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha</p><p>TSLA is a great company, but its current valuation has become overly inflated. TSLA&#39;s market cap is $209.52 billion larger than these 12 auto manufacturers, yet the combination of the 12 auto manufacturers generates $1.32 trillion more in revenue and $109.89 billion more in net income.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1b686de4009ca733ff9651ce0d9fcaf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha</p><p>Looking at the market caps, one would assume that TSLA has a dominant majority over its competitors in auto sales within the U.S. According to the2021 data, TSLA sold 2.02% of all vehicles in the U.S. TSLA&#39;s market cap reflects a level of dominance that is non-existent.</p><p>Realistically, TSLA will have a hard time disrupting the sector further due to the price point of their vehicles. The reality is that, unless TSLA can sell a car that rivals a Honda or Toyota, doubling its market share is going to be a daunting task. It&#39;s just math. TSLA doesn&#39;t have a product for the masses, and while it may continue to grow in the luxury segment, the amount of growth that can be achieved is limited due to the pricing power of the consumer.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/442ffe151dd83bc524785857925f9797\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>www.goodcarbadcar.net</p><p><b>Tesla Isn&#39;t A Technology Company And Shouldn&#39;t Be Valued As One</b></p><p>The valuation rebuttal has always been that TSLA isn&#39;t an automobile company, rather, it&#39;s a technology company.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbc9ccb2cb8a0e7d40804db24e183214\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla</p><p>Page 23 ofTSLA&#39;s Q1 2022 slide deck from their earnings call is their statement of operations. Once again, 100% of TSLA&#39;s gross profit and net income are derived from automobiles. Energy generation and storage lose money as it generates $616 million in revenue while the cost of this revenue is $688 million. The same goes for Services and others, as this segment generates $1.279 billion in revenue while the cost of this revenue is $1.286 billion. This doesn&#39;t even factor in operating expenses.</p><p>TSLA manufacturers state of the art automobiles, but this doesn&#39;t classify them as a technology company, nor should they be classified as one. Since this is always the rebuttal and technology companies trade at larger earnings multiples, I will compare TSLA to Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), and Meta Platforms (FB) and illustrate why TSLA is still drastically overvalued if the market was still to provide it with a tech multiple.</p><p>Prior to the comparisons, I want to frame the analysis by providing each company&#39;s market cap:</p><ul><li>AAPL $2.69 Trillion</li><li>MSFT $2.17 Trillion</li><li>GOOGL $1.62 Trillion</li><li>AMZN $1.28 Trillion</li><li>TSLA $986.92 Billion</li><li>FB $604.62 Billion</li></ul><p>I am going to start with growth because this is always the key metric bulls point out. Since the close of 2018, which is 3.25 fiscal years, TSLA has grown its revenue from $21.46 billion to $62.19 billion.</p><p>This is absolutely remarkable, but it doesn&#39;t place TSLA in the upper epsilon of technology companies. Over the same period, FB grew its revenue by $63.83 billion, which is more than what TSLA produced in the TTM. FB grew its revenue by more than what TSLA produces and generates just about double the revenue ($119.67 billion), yet TSLA has a larger market cap. For everyone who has used growth as their investment premise, FB having a market cap that&#39;s $382.30 less than TSLA nullifies that aspect of the bull thesis. AMZN&#39;s market cap is only $294.33 billion larger than TSLA, yet they generated $477.75 billion in revenue and grew their revenue by $341.76 billion in this period. Using revenue growth for TSLA doesn&#39;t support the valuation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c0fbd4eb93f026c4575ee8f77f53e4b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha</p><p>Next, I will turn to profits because, at the end of the day, businesses are in the business of making money. Once again, TSLA has done a fantastic job of monetizing its business and, in 3.25 short years, has gone from losing -$976 million to make $8.4 billion in the TTM for an increase of $9.38 billion. FB has produced $37.34 billion in profit in the TTM, and its net income grew by $15.23 billion over this period. Using growth doesn&#39;t support the valuation when FB has a market cap that&#39;s $382.30 less than TSLA and grew its profits in this period by almost double what TSLA has generated in the TTM.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9716477607711ee0b6d4f77eb24c890\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha</p><p>The new metric bulls are using in their thesis is TSLA&#39;s free cash flow (FCF). Once again, TSLA has done an excellent job, going from -$221 million of FCF in 2018 to $6.93 billion of FCF in the TTM. Many companies would love to grow their annual FCF by $7.15 billion over a 3.25-year period, and this should be applauded.</p><p>Let&#39;s look at FB once again, since TSLA&#39;s valuation isn&#39;t based on its core segment as an automobile manufacturer. FB has grown its FCF over the previous 3.25 years by $23.45 billion, more than 3x TSLA&#39;s growth, and has generated $39.81 billion of FCF in the TTM. FB generated roughly 5.75x more FCF than TSLA and grew its FCF by more than 3x what TSLA produces, yet FB has a market cap that&#39;s almost $400 billion less than TSLA. Growth within the financials does not support TSLA&#39;s valuation, which is a breath away from $1 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/902a7074eda9e8f2f2765e0833423d2c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha</p><p>Today you&#39;re paying a 113.81 P/E for TSLA. Paying a larger multiple for a company that&#39;s growing its earnings quickly is normal, but TSLA isn&#39;t growing by larger amounts than FB, and FB trades at a 16.66 P/E. I have seen TSLA bulls justify the P/E because of TSLA&#39;s growth factor, but this doesn&#39;t hold up when FB has grown by larger amounts from larger starting positions and has a P/E that&#39;s a fraction of TSLA. Look at AAPL, which is the largest company in the world. AAPL has grown its net income by $56.25 billion and its FCF by $52.3 billion over the past 3.25 years, and its P/E is 26.78. People are blindly paying any multiple the market places on TSLA.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75168f6e39ced721cf0c53d78481a983\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"335\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>TSLA is trading at a 15.38 P/S. The justification for this multiple is difficult to defend while AMZN trades at a P/S of 11.31. AMZN&#39;s revenue grew by $341.76 billion over the past 3.25 years while TSLA grew their revenue by $40.73 billion. Instead of an absolute basis, looking at this from a percentage aspect, TSLA grew its revenue by 189.78%, while AMZN&#39;s grew by 251.32%. The P/S ratio is not a supporting valuation metric as TSLA is trading at a larger multiple than AMZN yet produced $301.03 billion less in revenue growth compared to AMZN. At the very least, TSLA should trade at a lower P/S multiple than AMZN considering their revenue growth was a fraction of AMZN&#39;s.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aad00a6c490808962705a1a2dae45cfe\" tg-width=\"608\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>TSLA has done an excellent job monetizing its revenue, delivering exceptional margins, and generating FCF. Now that TSLA is generating billions in FCF, it&#39;s been inserted into the bull thesis. FCF is a measure of profitability that excludes the non-cash expenses of the income statement and includes spending on equipment and assets as well as changes in working capital from the balance sheet. FCF could be the most underrated and most important financial metric to look at, as this is the pool of capital that companies can utilize to repay debt, pay dividends, buy back shares, make acquisitions, or reinvest in the business.</p><p>Every investment is the present value of all future cash flow. This is why investors look at the price to FCF valuation. Investors want to pay the cheapest multiple for a company&#39;s FCF. Today, you&#39;re paying 142.52x TSLA&#39;s FCF. Going back to the FCF section, TSLA grew its FCF by $7.15 billion over the past 3.25 years. FB generated $23.45 billion of FCF in this period, which is 3x the amount TSLA grew, yet FB is trading at a 15.19x multiple on price to FCF.</p><p>Why on earth would you want to pay 142.52x for TSLA&#39;s FCF when you could pay 15.19x for FB, which is growing their FCF by more than 3x the amount that TSLA is growing by? How about AAPL? AAPL grew its FCF by $52.3 billion and trades at a 25.4x price to FCF. If I exclude FB for a moment, should TSLA trade at a larger FCF multiple than GOOGL, which has grown its FCF by $46.15 billion over the past 3.25 years? My answer is no because there is no guarantee that TSLA will ever generate $46.15 billion in annual FCF, let alone the $68.99 billion in FCF that GOOGL generates.</p><p>So what is a fair price to FCF multiple for TSLA? I don&#39;t believe TSLA has earned the right to trade at the same multiples as the rest of big tech considering the levels of FCF they produce. If I stick with the methodology that FB is egregiously undervalued, then TSLA should trade above 15.19x its FCF but lower than the 23.42x multiple GOOGL trades at.</p><p>I don&#39;t want to be overly bearish, so I will place a 21x multiple on TSLA&#39;s FCF, which is more than fair considering big tech metrics. A 21x multiple on TSLA&#39;s FCF puts its market cap at $145.43 billion, which is -85.26% from its current market cap of $986.92 billion. It&#39;s just math, and if TSLA is going to be valued as a technology company, it needs to be compared to the technology companies with similar market caps.</p><p>At the very least, there isn&#39;t a single reason why TSLA&#39;s market cap is larger than FB&#39;s. There isn&#39;t a single metric that TSLA beats FB in. Based on FB&#39;s valuation, if TSLA traded at the same FCF multiple, it would have a market cap of $105.19 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b81a61d60d9ec098276569cc4a501da0\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>TSLA has a gross profit margin of 27.1% ($16.85b / $62.19b) and a profit margin of 13.51% ($8.4b / $62.19b). FB has a gross profit margin of 80.34% ($96.14b / $119.67b) and a profit margin of 31.2% ($37.34b / $119.67b). FB has much wider margins and is growing its revenue by larger amounts. This reinforces my methodology as to why TSLA is grossly overvalued. GOOGL has a gross profit margin of 56.93% ($153.9b / $270.33b) and a profit margin of 27.57% ($74.54b / $270.33b).</p><p>The chances are incredibly slim that TSLA can double its profit margin to be within striking distance of GOOGL&#39;s. TSLA should not trade at a larger FCF, P/E, or P/S multiple than FB or GOOGL. While the market would indicate that I am wrong today, eventually, the hype will wear off, and TSLA will trade at a realistic valuation.</p><p><b>TSLA&#39;s Future Catalysts Have A Long Way To Go Before Impacting Its Bottom Line</b></p><p>There are three main catalysts people discuss, which include insurance, robotaxis, and FSD.TSLA offers insurance using real-time driving behavior. This is currently available to all Model S, Model 3, Model X, and Model Y owners. The catch is that it&#39;s only available in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Ohio, Oregon, Texas, and Virginia as of now.</p><p>TSLA uses a safety rating score to determine the monthly premium for its vehicles. At the largest premium of $130/mo, this would be $1,560 per year. If TSLA converted 100% of their U.S sales in 2021 as an insurance customer, which I think could be possible if TSLA insurance was available in every state, it would have generated $471.12 million in revenue.</p><p>We have no idea what the margins would have been, but if the margin was 50%, it would have been an additional $235.56 million in net income in 2021. While this is nothing to sneeze at, an additional $235.56 million in net income hardly moves the needle. This could be a $1 billion top-line revenue segment in the future, but with availability in only 7 states, insurance&#39;s $1 billion revenue mark is a long way away.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e86de6232b9abf7cee46a9607eb09741\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla</p><p>Next,FSD, for which TSLA has created two subscription models, a $99/mo price point and a $199/mo price point. The problem with FSD is that it doesn&#39;t make the vehicle fully autonomous, and you still need a driver to be attentive and alert. While I am not arguing that TSLA&#39;s FSD isn&#39;t leaps and bounds ahead of the competition, the problem is that it&#39;s not exactly a self-driving car.</p><p>The questions around legality and where you can use it pop into my head, and how many of TSLA&#39;s drivers opt for this upgrade. Until there is clear legislation and the technology advances to where vehicles can fully drive a person from point A to B while that person takes a nap or reads, I have a hard time believing enough TSLA owners will spend the extra $199/mo on FSD. If there is somewhere where TSLA produces the numbers about how many owners opt for this package, please let me know, and I will crunch the numbers.</p><p>Which Features Come With My Subscription?</p><blockquote>The FSD capability features you receive are based on your configuration and location. Not all features are available in all markets, and features are subject to change.Learn more about Autopilot and Full Self-Driving capability features.</blockquote><blockquote><i>Note: These features are designed to become more capable over time; however the currently enabled features do not make the vehicle autonomous. The currently enabled features require a fully attentive driver, who has their hands on the wheel and is prepared to take over at any moment.</i></blockquote><p>The last catalyst is Robotaxis which many have commented on in my articles before. We&#39;re so far off on Robotaxis that this can&#39;t be considered in TSLA&#39;s upcoming revenue. I would think major legislation would be needed for Robotaxis to exist, and there is no telling how many years away we are from this.</p><p>Also, what is the percentage of TSLA owners that would actually allow their vehicle to be used as a Robotaxi? Depending on what the profitability is, I can see people buying TSLAs to enroll them in this program, but, once again, we need to see the economics behind it. I know I am just one opinion, but I would never enroll one of my cars into a robotaxi program because I don&#39;t want other people that I don&#39;t know in my car. I would think there are many others that have similar viewpoints.</p><p>The real upcoming catalysts are future revenue growth and entering the Chinese market. In 2021 TSLA grew its YoY revenue by 70.67%, and their off to a great start after Q1 2022. Only time will tell what type of growth rate TSLA can maintain, but too many people are assuming that TSLA will obliterate the competition. Over the next several years, we could see TSLA&#39;s growth rate become significantly reduced as more luxury operators put EVs on the road.</p><p>At TSLA&#39;s current margins, they would need to increase their revenue by 444.55% to $276.47 billion to produce the same amount of net income ($37.34b) that FB produces today at their current 13.51% profit margin. Maybe TSLA can get there in the future, but why should TSLA be valued at almost $1 trillion today, considering not a single metric of theirs is similar to FB or GOOGL, and TSLA&#39;s growth across any of the sectors isn&#39;t larger than FB or GOOGL?</p><p><b>Tesla Continues To Dilute Shareholders, And Almost No Shareholders Care</b></p><p>Dilution kills shareholder value. Look, I am a shareholder of TSLA, and I hate that my shares continue to be diluted. These numbers are split-adjusted that I am using. Over the past decade,TSLA has diluted its shares by 80.93%. This is horrible compared to big tech, yet investors can&#39;t buy enough TSLA shares. TSLA finished 2012 with 572.6 million shares and, as of its last filing, had increased its outstanding shares to 1.036 billion shares.</p><p>This is the equivalent of me taking a pizza, and instead of giving you a slice, cutting another 6.5 slices, then giving you one. The pizza represents TSLA, the company, and they basically turned an 8-slice pie into a 14.5-slice pie, reducing shareholder&#39;s ownership and the amount of equity, revenue, and EPS our shares represent.</p><p>If you want to see what a true shepherd of shareholder value looks like, turn to AAPL. In 2012 AAPL had 26.3 billion shares outstanding. Over the past decade, AAPL has repurchased 10.09 billion shares, reducing its outstanding shares by 38.37%. Every quarter, AAPL is buying back shares and increasing the ownership its shares represent. TSLA, on the other hand, continues to dilute shareholders by increasing shares YOY.</p><p><b>I Could Be Completely Wrong, And Tesla Could Continue Growing At These Rates</b></p><p>TSLA&#39;s vehicle deliveries continue to outpace its growing production. YoY TSLA&#39;s deliveries increased by 68% in Q1, adding 125,171 delivered vehicles to its customers. TSLA just began Model Y deliveries from the Austin facility, and production at the Gigafactory in Berlin started in March of 2022. TSLA&#39;s Shanghai facility had strong production rates prior to the spike in COVID that resulted in temporary shutdowns. TSLA isn&#39;t just focusing on the U.S, they have Europe and China in their sights.</p><p>EVs accounted for 488,000 sales in the U.S for 2021, and the previous projection was that EVs would account for 670,000 units sold in 2022. Oil has hovered around $100 per barrel and could render the previous projections of 37% increased EV sales domestically for 2022 conservative. TSLA is in a prime position to capitalize on this trend. In 2021 TSLA vehicles accounted for 61.89% of EVs sold in the U.S (301,998 / 488,000).</p><p>Hypothetically, if the previous projection of 670,000 EV sales for 2022 is accurate and TSLA maintains its current margin, they would sell 414,628 vehicles throughout the U.S in 2022. If gas prices do alter the decision-making process when deciding between a combustible engine or an EV, then TSLA could continue surprising the market with QoQ earnings beats.</p><p>The U.S has a national goal of reaching 50% of domestic auto sales coming from EVs. In 2021, EVs accounted for 3.26% of total sales in the U.S auto market. Based on U.S auto sales in 2021, annual EV sales would need to grow by 6,989,403 to reach a 50% EV to combustible engine ratio. Hypothetically if U.S auto sales stayed flat but EVs reached 50% of the market in 2030 they would sell 7,477,403 vehicles. If TSLA&#39;s dominance in the EV sector was to drop from 61.89% to 15% due to increased competition, they would generate 1,121,610 in sales compared to 301,998 in 2021. When you add in Europe and China, TSLA certainly has the ability to become a top auto manufacturer by sales next decade.</p><p>Bulls aren&#39;t incorrect to be excited about TSLA. The world is moving toward EVs, and TSLA is the crème de la crème. As I said in the beginning, I am bullish about TSLA&#39;s future prospects, but I think the valuation today is overinflated. Nobody can predict the future, but I have no doubt that TSLA will continue to grow its sales YoY.</p><p>The question becomes, how much growth will they be able to achieve YoY? In 2021, TM generated $226.48 billion of revenue and, based on the future of EVs, TSLA certainly could achieve this level of revenue in the future. Based on TSLA&#39;s current 13.51% profit margin, if they achieved TM&#39;s level of revenue, they would generate $30.59 billion of net income, which would definitely make today&#39;s valuation look more realistic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c9176fa9bebc2c940e038cafd23229\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla</p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p>You&#39;re probably wondering how I can be a shareholder and be a bear on TSLA&#39;s valuation at the same time. It&#39;s simple; my wife bought shares of TSLA, which makes me a shareholder. My stance has always been bullish on the company and bearish on the valuation. What Elon Musk and the team at TSLA has accomplished is astonishing, and they deserve nothing but respect.</p><p>Keep in mind a company and a company&#39;s stock are two separate things. TSLA continues to dilute shareholders, and they and the market are valuing TSLA as if it&#39;s FB or GOOGL. TSLA is not a technology company; it&#39;s an automobile company, as the automotive segments drive 100% of its gross revenue and net income.</p><p>TSLA is trading at a P/E of 113.81, a P/S of 15.38, and a 142.52x multiple on its FCF. The numbers are drastically inflated as TSLA has no business trading at a larger P/S multiple than AMZN, which trades at 11.31 P/S when it has grown its revenue by $341.76 billion over the previous 3.25 years compared to TSLA&#39;s $40.73 billion of revenue growth. TSLA has generated $6.93 billion in FCF over the TTM, while Mr. Market has placed a 142.52x multiple on TSLA due to $7.15 billion FCF growth over the past 3.25 years. FB trades at a 15.19x FCF multiple while growing FCF by $23.45 billion over this period which is more than 3x what TSLA has generated in the TTM.</p><p>With FB trading at 15.19x FCF, GOOGL at 23.42x FCF, and AAPL at 25.4x FCF, it&#39;s hard to justify any number above 20x for TSLA. I think a 21x FCF multiple is generous and that places TSLA at a market cap of $145.43 billion, which is -85.26% from its current market cap of $986.92 billion.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Overvalued By 85.26% And Not A Technology Company</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Overvalued By 85.26% And Not A Technology Company\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-08 11:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4507535-tesla-overvalued-by-85-26-percent-and-not-a-technology-company><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryMake no mistake, Tesla is a phenomenal company that has accomplished the unthinkable as it broke through extreme barriers of entry to disrupt the auto industry.Just because Tesla is a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4507535-tesla-overvalued-by-85-26-percent-and-not-a-technology-company\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4507535-tesla-overvalued-by-85-26-percent-and-not-a-technology-company","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131831539","content_text":"SummaryMake no mistake, Tesla is a phenomenal company that has accomplished the unthinkable as it broke through extreme barriers of entry to disrupt the auto industry.Just because Tesla is a successful company that is causing automotive titans to change from combustible engines to EVs doesn't mean Tesla's stock is a good investment today.100% of gross profit and net income is generated from the automotive sector as Tesla's other businesses lose money, making them an automobile manufacturing company, not a technology company.I compared Tesla's metrics to the auto industry and big tech and the results are the same, Tesla's valuation is egregious.It's rare to find companies that have cult-like followings with loyalists willing to pay any price for its stock. The debate regarding Tesla, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:TSLA) valuation continues to be a topic of conversation between the bulls and the bears. Oneside argues that TSLA's financial growth and future prospects, including FSD, insurance, and robotaxis, justify the current $902.12 billion valuations, while others argue that the current financials and cult-like following have led to a massive overvaluation in TSLA's stock.I tip my hat to Elon Musk, as his accomplishments are second to none. When others called him crazy, Mr. Musk chose one of the hardest industries to compete in, started TSLA from the ground up, went to battle against the auto manufacturers, and succeeded. TSLA is one of the rare success stories that has truly shaped an industry, and the barriers of entry that were overcome are astonishing. TSLA didn't have the capital, manufacturing, credibility, or the infrastructure that its competitors did, yet they found a way to succeed. If the odds weren't enough which TSLA faced, they accomplished their goals without a combustible engine and pioneered an entirely new sector within the automotive industry.Just because TSLA is a great company, it doesn't mean TSLA has a great stock, or it isn't overvalued. I am not bearish on TSLA the company because I believe they still have a long runway of growth ahead of them, but I am bearish on the valuation. Prior to leaving a comment on why I am wrong, please read the article and think about the metrics I am citing; then, I will happily discuss any viewpoints about the analysis.Tesla Vs. The World In The Automotive SectorIt feels like TSLA vs. the world whenever TSLA is discussed. Discussing who makes a better automobile is a matter of opinion, and everyone is correct because it's their opinion. If person A thinks TSLA makes the best car and person B thinks Mercedes Benz makes the best car, they are both correct. Debating over this is pointless, so let's look at the raw numbers.TSLA has a larger market cap than the combination ofToyota(TM),Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY),Daimler(OTCPK:DDAIF),BMW(OTCPK:BMWYY),General Motors(GM),Ford(F),Honda(HMC),Ferrari(RACE),Nissan(OTCPK:NSANY),Subaru(OTCPK:FUJHY),Volvo(OTCPK:VOLAF), andMazda(OTCPK:MZDAY). TSLA's market cap is currently $986.92 billion, while the combination of these 12 companies is $777.41 billion.Steven FiorilloThe P/S ratio is often cited to justify the valuation. The combination of TM, VWAGY, DDAIF, BMWYY, GM, F, HMC, RACE, NSANY, FUJHY, VOLAF, and MZDAY has generated $1.38 trillion in revenue over the TTM, putting their P/S at 0.56, while TSLA has generated $62.19 billion in revenue and has a 15.87 P/S.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaAs a combined entity, these 12 companies have generated $118.29 billion in net income, while TSLA has produced $8.4 billion.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaTSLA is a great company, but its current valuation has become overly inflated. TSLA's market cap is $209.52 billion larger than these 12 auto manufacturers, yet the combination of the 12 auto manufacturers generates $1.32 trillion more in revenue and $109.89 billion more in net income.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaLooking at the market caps, one would assume that TSLA has a dominant majority over its competitors in auto sales within the U.S. According to the2021 data, TSLA sold 2.02% of all vehicles in the U.S. TSLA's market cap reflects a level of dominance that is non-existent.Realistically, TSLA will have a hard time disrupting the sector further due to the price point of their vehicles. The reality is that, unless TSLA can sell a car that rivals a Honda or Toyota, doubling its market share is going to be a daunting task. It's just math. TSLA doesn't have a product for the masses, and while it may continue to grow in the luxury segment, the amount of growth that can be achieved is limited due to the pricing power of the consumer.www.goodcarbadcar.netTesla Isn't A Technology Company And Shouldn't Be Valued As OneThe valuation rebuttal has always been that TSLA isn't an automobile company, rather, it's a technology company.TeslaPage 23 ofTSLA's Q1 2022 slide deck from their earnings call is their statement of operations. Once again, 100% of TSLA's gross profit and net income are derived from automobiles. Energy generation and storage lose money as it generates $616 million in revenue while the cost of this revenue is $688 million. The same goes for Services and others, as this segment generates $1.279 billion in revenue while the cost of this revenue is $1.286 billion. This doesn't even factor in operating expenses.TSLA manufacturers state of the art automobiles, but this doesn't classify them as a technology company, nor should they be classified as one. Since this is always the rebuttal and technology companies trade at larger earnings multiples, I will compare TSLA to Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), and Meta Platforms (FB) and illustrate why TSLA is still drastically overvalued if the market was still to provide it with a tech multiple.Prior to the comparisons, I want to frame the analysis by providing each company's market cap:AAPL $2.69 TrillionMSFT $2.17 TrillionGOOGL $1.62 TrillionAMZN $1.28 TrillionTSLA $986.92 BillionFB $604.62 BillionI am going to start with growth because this is always the key metric bulls point out. Since the close of 2018, which is 3.25 fiscal years, TSLA has grown its revenue from $21.46 billion to $62.19 billion.This is absolutely remarkable, but it doesn't place TSLA in the upper epsilon of technology companies. Over the same period, FB grew its revenue by $63.83 billion, which is more than what TSLA produced in the TTM. FB grew its revenue by more than what TSLA produces and generates just about double the revenue ($119.67 billion), yet TSLA has a larger market cap. For everyone who has used growth as their investment premise, FB having a market cap that's $382.30 less than TSLA nullifies that aspect of the bull thesis. AMZN's market cap is only $294.33 billion larger than TSLA, yet they generated $477.75 billion in revenue and grew their revenue by $341.76 billion in this period. Using revenue growth for TSLA doesn't support the valuation.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaNext, I will turn to profits because, at the end of the day, businesses are in the business of making money. Once again, TSLA has done a fantastic job of monetizing its business and, in 3.25 short years, has gone from losing -$976 million to make $8.4 billion in the TTM for an increase of $9.38 billion. FB has produced $37.34 billion in profit in the TTM, and its net income grew by $15.23 billion over this period. Using growth doesn't support the valuation when FB has a market cap that's $382.30 less than TSLA and grew its profits in this period by almost double what TSLA has generated in the TTM.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaThe new metric bulls are using in their thesis is TSLA's free cash flow (FCF). Once again, TSLA has done an excellent job, going from -$221 million of FCF in 2018 to $6.93 billion of FCF in the TTM. Many companies would love to grow their annual FCF by $7.15 billion over a 3.25-year period, and this should be applauded.Let's look at FB once again, since TSLA's valuation isn't based on its core segment as an automobile manufacturer. FB has grown its FCF over the previous 3.25 years by $23.45 billion, more than 3x TSLA's growth, and has generated $39.81 billion of FCF in the TTM. FB generated roughly 5.75x more FCF than TSLA and grew its FCF by more than 3x what TSLA produces, yet FB has a market cap that's almost $400 billion less than TSLA. Growth within the financials does not support TSLA's valuation, which is a breath away from $1 trillion.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaToday you're paying a 113.81 P/E for TSLA. Paying a larger multiple for a company that's growing its earnings quickly is normal, but TSLA isn't growing by larger amounts than FB, and FB trades at a 16.66 P/E. I have seen TSLA bulls justify the P/E because of TSLA's growth factor, but this doesn't hold up when FB has grown by larger amounts from larger starting positions and has a P/E that's a fraction of TSLA. Look at AAPL, which is the largest company in the world. AAPL has grown its net income by $56.25 billion and its FCF by $52.3 billion over the past 3.25 years, and its P/E is 26.78. People are blindly paying any multiple the market places on TSLA.TSLA is trading at a 15.38 P/S. The justification for this multiple is difficult to defend while AMZN trades at a P/S of 11.31. AMZN's revenue grew by $341.76 billion over the past 3.25 years while TSLA grew their revenue by $40.73 billion. Instead of an absolute basis, looking at this from a percentage aspect, TSLA grew its revenue by 189.78%, while AMZN's grew by 251.32%. The P/S ratio is not a supporting valuation metric as TSLA is trading at a larger multiple than AMZN yet produced $301.03 billion less in revenue growth compared to AMZN. At the very least, TSLA should trade at a lower P/S multiple than AMZN considering their revenue growth was a fraction of AMZN's.TSLA has done an excellent job monetizing its revenue, delivering exceptional margins, and generating FCF. Now that TSLA is generating billions in FCF, it's been inserted into the bull thesis. FCF is a measure of profitability that excludes the non-cash expenses of the income statement and includes spending on equipment and assets as well as changes in working capital from the balance sheet. FCF could be the most underrated and most important financial metric to look at, as this is the pool of capital that companies can utilize to repay debt, pay dividends, buy back shares, make acquisitions, or reinvest in the business.Every investment is the present value of all future cash flow. This is why investors look at the price to FCF valuation. Investors want to pay the cheapest multiple for a company's FCF. Today, you're paying 142.52x TSLA's FCF. Going back to the FCF section, TSLA grew its FCF by $7.15 billion over the past 3.25 years. FB generated $23.45 billion of FCF in this period, which is 3x the amount TSLA grew, yet FB is trading at a 15.19x multiple on price to FCF.Why on earth would you want to pay 142.52x for TSLA's FCF when you could pay 15.19x for FB, which is growing their FCF by more than 3x the amount that TSLA is growing by? How about AAPL? AAPL grew its FCF by $52.3 billion and trades at a 25.4x price to FCF. If I exclude FB for a moment, should TSLA trade at a larger FCF multiple than GOOGL, which has grown its FCF by $46.15 billion over the past 3.25 years? My answer is no because there is no guarantee that TSLA will ever generate $46.15 billion in annual FCF, let alone the $68.99 billion in FCF that GOOGL generates.So what is a fair price to FCF multiple for TSLA? I don't believe TSLA has earned the right to trade at the same multiples as the rest of big tech considering the levels of FCF they produce. If I stick with the methodology that FB is egregiously undervalued, then TSLA should trade above 15.19x its FCF but lower than the 23.42x multiple GOOGL trades at.I don't want to be overly bearish, so I will place a 21x multiple on TSLA's FCF, which is more than fair considering big tech metrics. A 21x multiple on TSLA's FCF puts its market cap at $145.43 billion, which is -85.26% from its current market cap of $986.92 billion. It's just math, and if TSLA is going to be valued as a technology company, it needs to be compared to the technology companies with similar market caps.At the very least, there isn't a single reason why TSLA's market cap is larger than FB's. There isn't a single metric that TSLA beats FB in. Based on FB's valuation, if TSLA traded at the same FCF multiple, it would have a market cap of $105.19 billion.TSLA has a gross profit margin of 27.1% ($16.85b / $62.19b) and a profit margin of 13.51% ($8.4b / $62.19b). FB has a gross profit margin of 80.34% ($96.14b / $119.67b) and a profit margin of 31.2% ($37.34b / $119.67b). FB has much wider margins and is growing its revenue by larger amounts. This reinforces my methodology as to why TSLA is grossly overvalued. GOOGL has a gross profit margin of 56.93% ($153.9b / $270.33b) and a profit margin of 27.57% ($74.54b / $270.33b).The chances are incredibly slim that TSLA can double its profit margin to be within striking distance of GOOGL's. TSLA should not trade at a larger FCF, P/E, or P/S multiple than FB or GOOGL. While the market would indicate that I am wrong today, eventually, the hype will wear off, and TSLA will trade at a realistic valuation.TSLA's Future Catalysts Have A Long Way To Go Before Impacting Its Bottom LineThere are three main catalysts people discuss, which include insurance, robotaxis, and FSD.TSLA offers insurance using real-time driving behavior. This is currently available to all Model S, Model 3, Model X, and Model Y owners. The catch is that it's only available in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Ohio, Oregon, Texas, and Virginia as of now.TSLA uses a safety rating score to determine the monthly premium for its vehicles. At the largest premium of $130/mo, this would be $1,560 per year. If TSLA converted 100% of their U.S sales in 2021 as an insurance customer, which I think could be possible if TSLA insurance was available in every state, it would have generated $471.12 million in revenue.We have no idea what the margins would have been, but if the margin was 50%, it would have been an additional $235.56 million in net income in 2021. While this is nothing to sneeze at, an additional $235.56 million in net income hardly moves the needle. This could be a $1 billion top-line revenue segment in the future, but with availability in only 7 states, insurance's $1 billion revenue mark is a long way away.TeslaNext,FSD, for which TSLA has created two subscription models, a $99/mo price point and a $199/mo price point. The problem with FSD is that it doesn't make the vehicle fully autonomous, and you still need a driver to be attentive and alert. While I am not arguing that TSLA's FSD isn't leaps and bounds ahead of the competition, the problem is that it's not exactly a self-driving car.The questions around legality and where you can use it pop into my head, and how many of TSLA's drivers opt for this upgrade. Until there is clear legislation and the technology advances to where vehicles can fully drive a person from point A to B while that person takes a nap or reads, I have a hard time believing enough TSLA owners will spend the extra $199/mo on FSD. If there is somewhere where TSLA produces the numbers about how many owners opt for this package, please let me know, and I will crunch the numbers.Which Features Come With My Subscription?The FSD capability features you receive are based on your configuration and location. Not all features are available in all markets, and features are subject to change.Learn more about Autopilot and Full Self-Driving capability features.Note: These features are designed to become more capable over time; however the currently enabled features do not make the vehicle autonomous. The currently enabled features require a fully attentive driver, who has their hands on the wheel and is prepared to take over at any moment.The last catalyst is Robotaxis which many have commented on in my articles before. We're so far off on Robotaxis that this can't be considered in TSLA's upcoming revenue. I would think major legislation would be needed for Robotaxis to exist, and there is no telling how many years away we are from this.Also, what is the percentage of TSLA owners that would actually allow their vehicle to be used as a Robotaxi? Depending on what the profitability is, I can see people buying TSLAs to enroll them in this program, but, once again, we need to see the economics behind it. I know I am just one opinion, but I would never enroll one of my cars into a robotaxi program because I don't want other people that I don't know in my car. I would think there are many others that have similar viewpoints.The real upcoming catalysts are future revenue growth and entering the Chinese market. In 2021 TSLA grew its YoY revenue by 70.67%, and their off to a great start after Q1 2022. Only time will tell what type of growth rate TSLA can maintain, but too many people are assuming that TSLA will obliterate the competition. Over the next several years, we could see TSLA's growth rate become significantly reduced as more luxury operators put EVs on the road.At TSLA's current margins, they would need to increase their revenue by 444.55% to $276.47 billion to produce the same amount of net income ($37.34b) that FB produces today at their current 13.51% profit margin. Maybe TSLA can get there in the future, but why should TSLA be valued at almost $1 trillion today, considering not a single metric of theirs is similar to FB or GOOGL, and TSLA's growth across any of the sectors isn't larger than FB or GOOGL?Tesla Continues To Dilute Shareholders, And Almost No Shareholders CareDilution kills shareholder value. Look, I am a shareholder of TSLA, and I hate that my shares continue to be diluted. These numbers are split-adjusted that I am using. Over the past decade,TSLA has diluted its shares by 80.93%. This is horrible compared to big tech, yet investors can't buy enough TSLA shares. TSLA finished 2012 with 572.6 million shares and, as of its last filing, had increased its outstanding shares to 1.036 billion shares.This is the equivalent of me taking a pizza, and instead of giving you a slice, cutting another 6.5 slices, then giving you one. The pizza represents TSLA, the company, and they basically turned an 8-slice pie into a 14.5-slice pie, reducing shareholder's ownership and the amount of equity, revenue, and EPS our shares represent.If you want to see what a true shepherd of shareholder value looks like, turn to AAPL. In 2012 AAPL had 26.3 billion shares outstanding. Over the past decade, AAPL has repurchased 10.09 billion shares, reducing its outstanding shares by 38.37%. Every quarter, AAPL is buying back shares and increasing the ownership its shares represent. TSLA, on the other hand, continues to dilute shareholders by increasing shares YOY.I Could Be Completely Wrong, And Tesla Could Continue Growing At These RatesTSLA's vehicle deliveries continue to outpace its growing production. YoY TSLA's deliveries increased by 68% in Q1, adding 125,171 delivered vehicles to its customers. TSLA just began Model Y deliveries from the Austin facility, and production at the Gigafactory in Berlin started in March of 2022. TSLA's Shanghai facility had strong production rates prior to the spike in COVID that resulted in temporary shutdowns. TSLA isn't just focusing on the U.S, they have Europe and China in their sights.EVs accounted for 488,000 sales in the U.S for 2021, and the previous projection was that EVs would account for 670,000 units sold in 2022. Oil has hovered around $100 per barrel and could render the previous projections of 37% increased EV sales domestically for 2022 conservative. TSLA is in a prime position to capitalize on this trend. In 2021 TSLA vehicles accounted for 61.89% of EVs sold in the U.S (301,998 / 488,000).Hypothetically, if the previous projection of 670,000 EV sales for 2022 is accurate and TSLA maintains its current margin, they would sell 414,628 vehicles throughout the U.S in 2022. If gas prices do alter the decision-making process when deciding between a combustible engine or an EV, then TSLA could continue surprising the market with QoQ earnings beats.The U.S has a national goal of reaching 50% of domestic auto sales coming from EVs. In 2021, EVs accounted for 3.26% of total sales in the U.S auto market. Based on U.S auto sales in 2021, annual EV sales would need to grow by 6,989,403 to reach a 50% EV to combustible engine ratio. Hypothetically if U.S auto sales stayed flat but EVs reached 50% of the market in 2030 they would sell 7,477,403 vehicles. If TSLA's dominance in the EV sector was to drop from 61.89% to 15% due to increased competition, they would generate 1,121,610 in sales compared to 301,998 in 2021. When you add in Europe and China, TSLA certainly has the ability to become a top auto manufacturer by sales next decade.Bulls aren't incorrect to be excited about TSLA. The world is moving toward EVs, and TSLA is the crème de la crème. As I said in the beginning, I am bullish about TSLA's future prospects, but I think the valuation today is overinflated. Nobody can predict the future, but I have no doubt that TSLA will continue to grow its sales YoY.The question becomes, how much growth will they be able to achieve YoY? In 2021, TM generated $226.48 billion of revenue and, based on the future of EVs, TSLA certainly could achieve this level of revenue in the future. Based on TSLA's current 13.51% profit margin, if they achieved TM's level of revenue, they would generate $30.59 billion of net income, which would definitely make today's valuation look more realistic.TeslaConclusionYou're probably wondering how I can be a shareholder and be a bear on TSLA's valuation at the same time. It's simple; my wife bought shares of TSLA, which makes me a shareholder. My stance has always been bullish on the company and bearish on the valuation. What Elon Musk and the team at TSLA has accomplished is astonishing, and they deserve nothing but respect.Keep in mind a company and a company's stock are two separate things. TSLA continues to dilute shareholders, and they and the market are valuing TSLA as if it's FB or GOOGL. TSLA is not a technology company; it's an automobile company, as the automotive segments drive 100% of its gross revenue and net income.TSLA is trading at a P/E of 113.81, a P/S of 15.38, and a 142.52x multiple on its FCF. The numbers are drastically inflated as TSLA has no business trading at a larger P/S multiple than AMZN, which trades at 11.31 P/S when it has grown its revenue by $341.76 billion over the previous 3.25 years compared to TSLA's $40.73 billion of revenue growth. TSLA has generated $6.93 billion in FCF over the TTM, while Mr. Market has placed a 142.52x multiple on TSLA due to $7.15 billion FCF growth over the past 3.25 years. FB trades at a 15.19x FCF multiple while growing FCF by $23.45 billion over this period which is more than 3x what TSLA has generated in the TTM.With FB trading at 15.19x FCF, GOOGL at 23.42x FCF, and AAPL at 25.4x FCF, it's hard to justify any number above 20x for TSLA. I think a 21x FCF multiple is generous and that places TSLA at a market cap of $145.43 billion, which is -85.26% from its current market cap of $986.92 billion.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":518,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3562670436095987","authorId":"3562670436095987","name":"hakunaurtata","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5631ba6526d1730e263ae54c0eab70e9","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3562670436095987","authorIdStr":"3562670436095987"},"content":"yep they should keep the negative narrative going on, helps me to accumulate more shares at a cheaper cost! [Cool]","text":"yep they should keep the negative narrative going on, helps me to accumulate more shares at a cheaper cost! [Cool]","html":"yep they should keep the negative narrative going on, helps me to accumulate more shares at a cheaper cost! [Cool]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9039449079,"gmtCreate":1646106854692,"gmtModify":1676534092048,"author":{"id":"4102503291622030","authorId":"4102503291622030","name":"shshsh1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3822ceefb8038dc7ae984cff6c96ebab","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4102503291622030","authorIdStr":"4102503291622030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Paid content?","listText":"Paid content?","text":"Paid content?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9039449079","repostId":"1106936697","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1106936697","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1646104713,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1106936697?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-01 11:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Is Still Fundamentally Overvalued","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106936697","media":"investorplace","summary":"Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock has lost about one-third of its value since hitting an all-time high of $1,222/share at the start of November.Tesla stock opened on Feb. 28 at $815. That’s still a market cap","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock has lost about one-third of its value since hitting an all-time high of $1,222/share at the start of November.</p><p>Tesla stock opened on Feb. 28 at $815. That’s still a market capitalization of over $890 billion on 2021 revenues of $53.8 billion. Tesla brought 10% of that revenue to the net income line, but the price to earnings (P/E) ratio is still 177, and the price to sales (P/S) ratio 17.</p><p>Tesla stock has always risen against a tide of bearishness, an assumption that CEO Elon Musk could not do what he was in fact doing. But fewer than 3% of shares are now being held short. Analysts are bullish, with 16 of 29 at Tipranks saying buy it.</p><p>That’s probably why I wouldn’t touch it right now.</p><h2>Tesla Still Just Makes Cars</h2><p>CEO Elon Musk has always called Tesla a technology company, but it is still a manufacturer. Manufacturers need supply chains. Supply chains around the world are being disrupted. War and pandemics are inherently disruptive things. Both are generally unhealthy for economies and other living things.</p><p>Ultimately, Tesla isn’t falling because of Musk’s Twitter, a Justice Department probe of shorts or relations with the Biden administration.</p><p>It’s falling on fundamentals. Scaling is difficult. It doesn’t get easier, for cars anyway, after the initial scaling.</p><p>The electric vehicle posse has been after Tesla for years, and they’re closing in. Lucid Group (NASDAQ:LCID) and Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) are delivering electric cars that look very Tesla-like. Ford Motor (NYSE:F) has begun doing the same. Volkswagen (OTCMKTS:VWAGY) is ramping up production. Chinese companies are now strong enough to get by on reduced government help.</p><p>To justify its current price, Tesla needs to become bigger than General Motors (NYSE:GM) or Ford within just a few years. Opening its German plant will help. But you’re still assuming last year’s growth of 83% in car deliveries can be replicated. You’re still assuming Tesla can produce, and sell, hundreds of thousands of its butt-ugly Cybertrucks in Texas against Ford, GM, and Toyota (NYSE:TM).</p><h2>Stock Market Exuberance</h2><p>Tesla stock has been falling even while pension funds like Canada’s have been piling in. The assumption is that Tesla is Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), that its software, electricity, insurance and services will multiply the value of each Tesla sale. But almost 90% of Tesla revenue still comes from cars. Tesla is not a solar panel company either. Battery storage revenues fell 38% in 2021.</p><p>That’s not to say Tesla hasn’t performed well. It has.</p><p>But its stock price assumes it can keep growing near its present rate, even as electric car production elsewhere ramps up.</p><p>We saw this last year with cloud stocks. There’s a limit to what people will pay for growth. Tesla seems to have gone through that limit, at ludicrous speed.</p><p>Meanwhile the Musks have taken their eyes off the ball. Buying Bitcoin while pretending to be unaware of its environmental damage is just stupid. Going into the video game industry is also stupid.</p><h2>The Bottom Line on TSLA Stock</h2><p>There are limits to what investors should pay for growth.</p><p>I think Tesla has exceeded those limits.</p><p>This doesn’t mean Tesla is a bad company. I think it can easily grow its top line by 50% this year, profitably. But then that growth is going to slow. Big numbers are harder to shift. The diversity of income Tesla once promised isn’t happening. It’s still a car company, and Elon Musk is growing bored with it.</p><p>If you assume TSLA stock is worth 10 times current revenue, or that its profit can double and it’s worth 30 times that, you’re still looking at a big drop in its stock price. I think there are better growth opportunities out there, in clouds, in software, in things that scale more easily than cars.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Is Still Fundamentally Overvalued</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Is Still Fundamentally Overvalued\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-01 11:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/02/tsla-stock-still-fundamentally-overvalued/><strong>investorplace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock has lost about one-third of its value since hitting an all-time high of $1,222/share at the start of November.Tesla stock opened on Feb. 28 at $815. That’s still a market ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/02/tsla-stock-still-fundamentally-overvalued/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/02/tsla-stock-still-fundamentally-overvalued/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106936697","content_text":"Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock has lost about one-third of its value since hitting an all-time high of $1,222/share at the start of November.Tesla stock opened on Feb. 28 at $815. That’s still a market capitalization of over $890 billion on 2021 revenues of $53.8 billion. Tesla brought 10% of that revenue to the net income line, but the price to earnings (P/E) ratio is still 177, and the price to sales (P/S) ratio 17.Tesla stock has always risen against a tide of bearishness, an assumption that CEO Elon Musk could not do what he was in fact doing. But fewer than 3% of shares are now being held short. Analysts are bullish, with 16 of 29 at Tipranks saying buy it.That’s probably why I wouldn’t touch it right now.Tesla Still Just Makes CarsCEO Elon Musk has always called Tesla a technology company, but it is still a manufacturer. Manufacturers need supply chains. Supply chains around the world are being disrupted. War and pandemics are inherently disruptive things. Both are generally unhealthy for economies and other living things.Ultimately, Tesla isn’t falling because of Musk’s Twitter, a Justice Department probe of shorts or relations with the Biden administration.It’s falling on fundamentals. Scaling is difficult. It doesn’t get easier, for cars anyway, after the initial scaling.The electric vehicle posse has been after Tesla for years, and they’re closing in. Lucid Group (NASDAQ:LCID) and Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) are delivering electric cars that look very Tesla-like. Ford Motor (NYSE:F) has begun doing the same. Volkswagen (OTCMKTS:VWAGY) is ramping up production. Chinese companies are now strong enough to get by on reduced government help.To justify its current price, Tesla needs to become bigger than General Motors (NYSE:GM) or Ford within just a few years. Opening its German plant will help. But you’re still assuming last year’s growth of 83% in car deliveries can be replicated. You’re still assuming Tesla can produce, and sell, hundreds of thousands of its butt-ugly Cybertrucks in Texas against Ford, GM, and Toyota (NYSE:TM).Stock Market ExuberanceTesla stock has been falling even while pension funds like Canada’s have been piling in. The assumption is that Tesla is Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), that its software, electricity, insurance and services will multiply the value of each Tesla sale. But almost 90% of Tesla revenue still comes from cars. Tesla is not a solar panel company either. Battery storage revenues fell 38% in 2021.That’s not to say Tesla hasn’t performed well. It has.But its stock price assumes it can keep growing near its present rate, even as electric car production elsewhere ramps up.We saw this last year with cloud stocks. There’s a limit to what people will pay for growth. Tesla seems to have gone through that limit, at ludicrous speed.Meanwhile the Musks have taken their eyes off the ball. Buying Bitcoin while pretending to be unaware of its environmental damage is just stupid. Going into the video game industry is also stupid.The Bottom Line on TSLA StockThere are limits to what investors should pay for growth.I think Tesla has exceeded those limits.This doesn’t mean Tesla is a bad company. I think it can easily grow its top line by 50% this year, profitably. But then that growth is going to slow. Big numbers are harder to shift. The diversity of income Tesla once promised isn’t happening. It’s still a car company, and Elon Musk is growing bored with it.If you assume TSLA stock is worth 10 times current revenue, or that its profit can double and it’s worth 30 times that, you’re still looking at a big drop in its stock price. I think there are better growth opportunities out there, in clouds, in software, in things that scale more easily than cars.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":492,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9092033625,"gmtCreate":1644483326300,"gmtModify":1676533932202,"author":{"id":"4102503291622030","authorId":"4102503291622030","name":"shshsh1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3822ceefb8038dc7ae984cff6c96ebab","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4102503291622030","authorIdStr":"4102503291622030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lol. Not too long ago seeking alpha was saying pltr was $5..","listText":"Lol. Not too long ago seeking alpha was saying pltr was $5..","text":"Lol. Not too long ago seeking alpha was saying pltr was $5..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9092033625","repostId":"1115712053","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1115712053","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1644472527,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1115712053?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-10 13:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Is Set To Beat Free Cash Flow Expectations, Here's Why","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115712053","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir is expected to submit its earnings card on Thursday, February 17, 2022.Momentum in t","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Palantir is expected to submit its earnings card on Thursday, February 17, 2022.</li><li>Momentum in the private enterprise business could see Palantir materially beat its own guidance for FY 2021.</li><li>FY 2022 revenue and free cash flow guidance could be very strong and result in a new upleg for Palantir&#39;s beaten-down shares.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c60bbceb66471a658f5f3ede016f552f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>NicoElNino/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p>Shares of Palantir (PLTR) dropped into a down-trend in November and are now trading near 1-year lows. While the tech sector and growth plays are apparently out of favor now, Palantir’s approaching earnings date could supply a catalyst for a new upleg. Palantir is set to report record revenues and free cash flow next week, and may initiate strong free cash flow guidance for FY 2022. Since an acceleration of growth in the private enterprise business can also be expected for Q4&#39;21, shares of Palantir are a buy before the company reports earnings!</p><p><b>Why Palantir could be set to crush earnings expectations</b></p><p>The earnings date for Palantir is approaching and the software analytics firm could supply an earnings card that is much better than expected.Palantir’s guidance for the fourth-quarter and for the 2021 fiscal year calls for:</p><ul><li>Q4’21 revenues of $418M, implying 7% quarter over quarter growth</li><li>Q4’21 adjusted operating margin of 22%</li><li>FY 2021 revenues of $1.53B, implying 40% revenue growth year over year</li><li>FY 2021 free cash flow of at least $400M.</li></ul><p>Given that momentum in Palantir’s (private enterprise) business accelerated throughout 2021 and that the firm increased its free cash flow guidance for FY 2021 more than once last year, I believe Palantir is going to report much better results for the fourth-quarter and for the full-year than what the company itself guided for. The result could be a major revaluation of Palantir’s shares next week, especially if an impressive earnings card goes together with strong free cash flow guidance for FY 2022.</p><p>For the fourth-quarter, I expect revenues of $725M, $7M above guidance and an adjusted operating margin of 28-30%, significantly above Palantir’s margin guidance of 22%. The reason for these optimistic predictions is that more commercial clients will likely have taken up Palantir’s services in the fourth-quarter and the private enterprise business has seen a consistent revenue acceleration last year. More clients have signed on to Palantir’s software platform throughout the year and the company expanded its client base materially in FY 2021. Palantir added 64 clients to its software platform last year which calculates to an average net addition of 21 new paying clients per quarter. However, Palantir’s customer acquisition also accelerated in every single quarter in 2021, showing real momentum that has been reflected in Palantir’s significant revenue and free cash flow ramp.</p><p>What is also making a difference for Palantir besides a growing commercial client book is growth in average revenue per customer. The average top twenty customer spend $41M on Palantir’s services in the third-quarter which is a 35% increase over the year-earlier period. I estimate that Palantir, due to strong customer acquisition in Q4&#39;21, will have grown this figure to $43M by year-end 2021.</p><p>In the third-quarter, Palantir’s commercial customer count increased a massive 46%, quarter over quarter, as more customers adopted Palantir’s Foundry for Builders. Palantir reported accelerating commercial revenue growthe very single quarter in FY 2021 and could close in on 40% commercial revenue growth, year over year, in the fourth-quarter. This momentum in the private enterprise market strongly raises the possibility of a material free cash flow outperformance for FY 2021.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a230b19fd3518c891d95ad919b204d79\" tg-width=\"765\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Palantir</span></p><p>The most important financial figure Palantir is going to report next week will be free cash flow. If I had to pinpoint one specific financial number that could make or break Palantir’s future, it would be this one.</p><p>What investors should remember is that Palantir a year ago expected FY 2021 to only be a free cash flow breakeven year. The firm started to materially increase its free cash flow guidance in the first-quarter 2021. Palantir guided for at least $400M in free cash flow for FY 2021, but the company already secured 80% of its low-case free cash flow guidance by the end of Q3’21. Third-quarter free cash flow was $119M, showing 139% quarter over quarter growth. At the same time, the free cash flow margin improved from 13% to 30%, meaning revenue to free cash flow conversion improved dramatically in the second half of the year. Palantir would therefore only have to report $80M in Q4&#39;21 free cash flow to meet its full-year FCF guidance, which is something Palantir should easily be able to do. I estimate that Palantir could report FY 2021 free cash flow of up to $460M based off of growing average revenue per customer, rising Foundry for Builders adoption, a higher commercial customer count and a free cash flow margin of 30%.</p><p>The most interesting part of Palantir’s earnings card next week, however, will be the free cash flow guidance for FY 2022. I believe this guidance especially has the potential to power Palantir’s shares higher.</p><p>Because of the momentum in Palantir’s business, I am raising my revenue estimate for FY 2022 to $2.13B, 5% above my last estimate of $2.03B. Assuming a 35% free cash flow margin, Palantir could generate $745M in free cash flow in FY 2022, indicating 86% year over year growth potential (calculated based off of Palantir’s full-year FCF guidance of $400M). Free cash flow, however, could be even better. Palantir started a new business called Foundry for Crypto lately, which is an entirely new segment that is targeting the rapidly evolving market for digital currencies. Palantir started the business in 2021 and is going to roll out services at scale in 2022. If this business gets a good start, it wouldn’t take much for Palantir to double its free cash flow, year over year, in FY 2022.</p><p><b>Palantir is cheap</b></p><p>Palantir’s earnings card for FY 2021 and guidance for FY 2022 will have an impact on estimates. Currently, revenue estimates are anchored at around $2.0B for FY 2022. If Palantir’s guidance calls for more than 30% revenue growth this year- which I believe is very likely- revenue predictions will be refreshed and shares of Palantir will have a lower sales multiplier factor.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/331423415d1d7437492759507d7115fa\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><b>Risks with Palantir</b></p><p>Slowing revenue and free cash flow growth, weaker free cash flow and operating margins, a disappointing FCF guidance for FY 2022 are all risks for Palantir. The canary in the coal mine is likely slowing growth in the private enterprise business, because this is what supports Palantir&#39;s revenue and free cash flow gains right now.</p><p><b>Final thoughts</b></p><p>I believe Palantir is going to crush it next week. Specifically, I expect that Palantir will outperform its own guidance regarding Q4’21 and full-year revenues and free cash flow. Average revenue per customer should also continue to grow. The free cash flow guidance for FY 2022, however, could be a real beauty considering Palantir’s revenue acceleration in the private enterprise business and stronger free cash flow (margins) in the second half of the year. If FY 2022 revenue and FCF guidance is strong- which I believe it will be- Palantir is up for a major revaluation in the stock market!</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Is Set To Beat Free Cash Flow Expectations, Here's Why</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Is Set To Beat Free Cash Flow Expectations, Here's Why\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-10 13:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4485431-palantir-q4-earnings-preview-poised-beat-expectations><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryPalantir is expected to submit its earnings card on Thursday, February 17, 2022.Momentum in the private enterprise business could see Palantir materially beat its own guidance for FY 2021.FY ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4485431-palantir-q4-earnings-preview-poised-beat-expectations\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4485431-palantir-q4-earnings-preview-poised-beat-expectations","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115712053","content_text":"SummaryPalantir is expected to submit its earnings card on Thursday, February 17, 2022.Momentum in the private enterprise business could see Palantir materially beat its own guidance for FY 2021.FY 2022 revenue and free cash flow guidance could be very strong and result in a new upleg for Palantir's beaten-down shares.NicoElNino/iStock via Getty ImagesShares of Palantir (PLTR) dropped into a down-trend in November and are now trading near 1-year lows. While the tech sector and growth plays are apparently out of favor now, Palantir’s approaching earnings date could supply a catalyst for a new upleg. Palantir is set to report record revenues and free cash flow next week, and may initiate strong free cash flow guidance for FY 2022. Since an acceleration of growth in the private enterprise business can also be expected for Q4'21, shares of Palantir are a buy before the company reports earnings!Why Palantir could be set to crush earnings expectationsThe earnings date for Palantir is approaching and the software analytics firm could supply an earnings card that is much better than expected.Palantir’s guidance for the fourth-quarter and for the 2021 fiscal year calls for:Q4’21 revenues of $418M, implying 7% quarter over quarter growthQ4’21 adjusted operating margin of 22%FY 2021 revenues of $1.53B, implying 40% revenue growth year over yearFY 2021 free cash flow of at least $400M.Given that momentum in Palantir’s (private enterprise) business accelerated throughout 2021 and that the firm increased its free cash flow guidance for FY 2021 more than once last year, I believe Palantir is going to report much better results for the fourth-quarter and for the full-year than what the company itself guided for. The result could be a major revaluation of Palantir’s shares next week, especially if an impressive earnings card goes together with strong free cash flow guidance for FY 2022.For the fourth-quarter, I expect revenues of $725M, $7M above guidance and an adjusted operating margin of 28-30%, significantly above Palantir’s margin guidance of 22%. The reason for these optimistic predictions is that more commercial clients will likely have taken up Palantir’s services in the fourth-quarter and the private enterprise business has seen a consistent revenue acceleration last year. More clients have signed on to Palantir’s software platform throughout the year and the company expanded its client base materially in FY 2021. Palantir added 64 clients to its software platform last year which calculates to an average net addition of 21 new paying clients per quarter. However, Palantir’s customer acquisition also accelerated in every single quarter in 2021, showing real momentum that has been reflected in Palantir’s significant revenue and free cash flow ramp.What is also making a difference for Palantir besides a growing commercial client book is growth in average revenue per customer. The average top twenty customer spend $41M on Palantir’s services in the third-quarter which is a 35% increase over the year-earlier period. I estimate that Palantir, due to strong customer acquisition in Q4'21, will have grown this figure to $43M by year-end 2021.In the third-quarter, Palantir’s commercial customer count increased a massive 46%, quarter over quarter, as more customers adopted Palantir’s Foundry for Builders. Palantir reported accelerating commercial revenue growthe very single quarter in FY 2021 and could close in on 40% commercial revenue growth, year over year, in the fourth-quarter. This momentum in the private enterprise market strongly raises the possibility of a material free cash flow outperformance for FY 2021.PalantirThe most important financial figure Palantir is going to report next week will be free cash flow. If I had to pinpoint one specific financial number that could make or break Palantir’s future, it would be this one.What investors should remember is that Palantir a year ago expected FY 2021 to only be a free cash flow breakeven year. The firm started to materially increase its free cash flow guidance in the first-quarter 2021. Palantir guided for at least $400M in free cash flow for FY 2021, but the company already secured 80% of its low-case free cash flow guidance by the end of Q3’21. Third-quarter free cash flow was $119M, showing 139% quarter over quarter growth. At the same time, the free cash flow margin improved from 13% to 30%, meaning revenue to free cash flow conversion improved dramatically in the second half of the year. Palantir would therefore only have to report $80M in Q4'21 free cash flow to meet its full-year FCF guidance, which is something Palantir should easily be able to do. I estimate that Palantir could report FY 2021 free cash flow of up to $460M based off of growing average revenue per customer, rising Foundry for Builders adoption, a higher commercial customer count and a free cash flow margin of 30%.The most interesting part of Palantir’s earnings card next week, however, will be the free cash flow guidance for FY 2022. I believe this guidance especially has the potential to power Palantir’s shares higher.Because of the momentum in Palantir’s business, I am raising my revenue estimate for FY 2022 to $2.13B, 5% above my last estimate of $2.03B. Assuming a 35% free cash flow margin, Palantir could generate $745M in free cash flow in FY 2022, indicating 86% year over year growth potential (calculated based off of Palantir’s full-year FCF guidance of $400M). Free cash flow, however, could be even better. Palantir started a new business called Foundry for Crypto lately, which is an entirely new segment that is targeting the rapidly evolving market for digital currencies. Palantir started the business in 2021 and is going to roll out services at scale in 2022. If this business gets a good start, it wouldn’t take much for Palantir to double its free cash flow, year over year, in FY 2022.Palantir is cheapPalantir’s earnings card for FY 2021 and guidance for FY 2022 will have an impact on estimates. Currently, revenue estimates are anchored at around $2.0B for FY 2022. If Palantir’s guidance calls for more than 30% revenue growth this year- which I believe is very likely- revenue predictions will be refreshed and shares of Palantir will have a lower sales multiplier factor.Data by YChartsRisks with PalantirSlowing revenue and free cash flow growth, weaker free cash flow and operating margins, a disappointing FCF guidance for FY 2022 are all risks for Palantir. The canary in the coal mine is likely slowing growth in the private enterprise business, because this is what supports Palantir's revenue and free cash flow gains right now.Final thoughtsI believe Palantir is going to crush it next week. Specifically, I expect that Palantir will outperform its own guidance regarding Q4’21 and full-year revenues and free cash flow. Average revenue per customer should also continue to grow. The free cash flow guidance for FY 2022, however, could be a real beauty considering Palantir’s revenue acceleration in the private enterprise business and stronger free cash flow (margins) in the second half of the year. If FY 2022 revenue and FCF guidance is strong- which I believe it will be- Palantir is up for a major revaluation in the stock market!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":396,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9098154668,"gmtCreate":1644057877185,"gmtModify":1676533886845,"author":{"id":"4102503291622030","authorId":"4102503291622030","name":"shshsh1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3822ceefb8038dc7ae984cff6c96ebab","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4102503291622030","authorIdStr":"4102503291622030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Didn't seeking alpha have an article saying pltr is only worth $5?","listText":"Didn't seeking alpha have an article saying pltr is only worth $5?","text":"Didn't seeking alpha have an article saying pltr is only worth $5?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9098154668","repostId":"1196927717","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":454,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9007767662,"gmtCreate":1643013312310,"gmtModify":1676533764976,"author":{"id":"4102503291622030","authorId":"4102503291622030","name":"shshsh1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3822ceefb8038dc7ae984cff6c96ebab","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4102503291622030","authorIdStr":"4102503291622030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wasn't seeking alpha saying the target is 5 dollars","listText":"Wasn't seeking alpha saying the target is 5 dollars","text":"Wasn't seeking alpha saying the target is 5 dollars","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9007767662","repostId":"1119030155","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":757,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9008222491,"gmtCreate":1641464867412,"gmtModify":1676533617882,"author":{"id":"4102503291622030","authorId":"4102503291622030","name":"shshsh1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3822ceefb8038dc7ae984cff6c96ebab","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4102503291622030","authorIdStr":"4102503291622030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sti to lead the way","listText":"Sti to lead the way","text":"Sti to lead the way","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9008222491","repostId":"1115076063","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":814,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}