To The Moon

A strange analysis that CAO will benefit with high oil prices as CAO is unlike oil majors or China big 3 oils major where they have oil production. CAO is purely an oil trader with main core business is supplyIng aviation fuel to China airport.  Only reason why the recent price run up was the potential takeover by Sinopec. 

cooling fan suits our weather conditions and keeps us level headed in the midst of the political storm.

1. DBS closed Friday at 54.80 2. OCBC a new high

OCBC is expected to closed at 17.88. Yes

When one considers CAO, one needs to understand the peculiar nature that this company major shareholder is China sovereign and the CEO is from the major shareholder. Being a party member, the pay scale differs from normal CEO and thus not comparable. 

Agreed that Singapore banks may continue to perform well.  However, does not endorsed that interest rate in Singapore will follow that of US as Singapore monetary policy relies on exchange rate stability and not on interest rate.  As Singapore dollars continue to be strong (continuous strong inflow of foreign capital) and local inflation numbers coming off, Singapore deposit rate will come off further and faster than US interest rates.

My retirement goal is to live comfortably while I will max out my CPF life which will give me more than 3K monthly when I reached 65 and my endowment plan will give me another 2k. Investing my spares in income generating equities such as banks and REITs will provide the buffer needed to go for holidays and other purposes expense.

OCBC is likely to release a slight decline year on year result of -5% due to compression of NIM arising from lower SORA, which will be offset partially by rise in fee incomes.  This should be in line with most analysts expectation.  As for guidance wise, I expect them to await for more clarity of the tariffs situation before providing any further guidance.  This is in line with the conservative approach that OCBC took in previous years.

I think the number is wrong.

NIM to narrowed is common sense as interest rates decline in Singapore.  The crux of the issue is by how much and how fast?  Which in this case may be a slow process as the world uncertainties may keep the rate stubborn to decline.  Another factor to consider is how much is NIM contribution to profitability and that all the 3 local banks are moving towards fees income such as international wealth management that can be seen in their exponential growth recently.  Not sure if Citi has taken these into their considerations.