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Punggol123

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- Punggol123Punggol123
  ·2022-05-17
  $Apple(AAPL)$Apple
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- Punggol123Punggol123
  ·2022-05-17
  $Apple(AAPL)$Apple
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- Punggol123Punggol123
  ·2022-05-17
  $Apple(AAPL)$appleG
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- Punggol123Punggol123
  ·2022-05-17
  Informative
  One-Time Richest Singapore Tycoon Has Lost 80% of His Fortune
  Forrest Li is no longer among the world’s 500 richest peopleCompany will post a record quarterly los
  One-Time Richest Singapore Tycoon Has Lost 80% of His Fortune
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- Punggol123Punggol123
  ·2022-05-17
  Interesting & insightful
  Opinion: A Smart Way to Play Tesla’s Big Stock-Market Swings Using Options
  Take advantage of this pattern of implied volatility of Tesla put optionsAFP via Getty ImagesTesla h
  Opinion: A Smart Way to Play Tesla’s Big Stock-Market Swings Using Options
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- Punggol123Punggol123
  ·2022-05-15
  $Apple(AAPL)$Good
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- Punggol123Punggol123
  ·2022-05-15
  $Apple(AAPL)$Apple
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- Punggol123Punggol123
  ·2022-05-15
  $Apple(AAPL)$fantastics!
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- Punggol123Punggol123
  ·2022-05-15
  $Apple(AAPL)$Good
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- Punggol123Punggol123
  ·2022-05-15
  Informative
  Why Are Stocks on the Verge of a Bear Market? Stagflation, the Fed and What Investors Need to Know
  It will take more than Friday's big bounce to put to rest the fear of a bear market in stocks as uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's ability to get a grip on inflation without sinking the economy
  Why Are Stocks on the Verge of a Bear Market? Stagflation, the Fed and What Investors Need to Know
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10:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"One-Time Richest Singapore Tycoon Has Lost 80% of His Fortune","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106707720","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Forrest Li is no longer among the world’s 500 richest peopleCompany will post a record quarterly los","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Forrest Li is no longer among the world’s 500 richest people</li><li>Company will post a record quarterly loss, analysts estimate</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31131a2e8248c8dba0a1caeb5f0669e2\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"667\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Forrest LiPhotographer: Wei Leng Tay/Bloomberg</span></p><p>Just a few months ago, Forrest Li had a $22 billion fortune and was the richest person in Singapore. Now he’s emerging as one of the biggest losers from a market crash that’s wiped more than $1 trillion from the net worth of the world’s 500 richest people this year.</p><p>It’s been a litany of unfortunate events for the Sea Ltd. founder: The tech selloff, the shutdown of its main e-commerce operation in India and disappointing earnings have tanked the company’s American depository receipts more than 80% from a peak in October. He’s still rich -- worth $4.7 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index -- but no longer enough to make the cutoff for the top 500 on the planet.</p><p>Traders are preparing for more bad news. The company, which is scheduled to report first-quarter earnings later Tuesday, is expected to post a record loss of more than $740 million, according to the average analyst estimate compiled by Bloomberg. Sea’s net loss had already widened in the final three months of last year as the firm sped up its expansion.</p><p>The downfall showcases the vulnerability of the quick wealth creation from the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic -- when tech giants benefited from greater demand for their services such as Sea’s e-commerce and gaming. Higher interest rates and the tensions surrounding the war in Ukraine are further hurting growth stocks.</p><p>“Sea is going to see increasing challenges in 2022,” said Shawn Yang, managing director at Blue Lotus Capital, an independent equity research firm in Hong Kong that cut the stock’s target price to $105 from $180 on May 10.</p><p>The company’s e-commerce sales, its main source of revenue, could come short of its annual guidance of $8.9 billion to $9.1 billion as it faces intensifying competition from rivals including Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and as consumers return to offline stores with the easing of Covid restrictions, Yang said.</p><p>A Sea representative declined to comment for this story.</p><p>Beyond Li, many tech entrepreneurs who saw their wealth rise on the back of the pandemic-induced growth are being hit hard by the market selloff. Eric Yuan, chief executive officer of Zoom Video Communications Inc., has lost $4.4 billion of wealth this year, while the fortune of Amazon.com Inc.’s Jeff Bezos, the world’s second-richest person, is down almost $58 billion. Ernie Garcia II and Ernie Garcia III, the father-son duo that runs used-car company Carvana Co., have shed $15 billion combined.</p><p>Sea’s valuation collapse prompted the usually low-profile Li to reach out to his employees in March. In a 900-word internal memo, he told them not to fear and that while the drop is painful, “this is short-term pain that we have to endure to truly maximize our long-term potential.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/643ef80f3b555d998c98ae57832874fa\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Analysts generally remain optimistic about Sea’s future even though the stock fell to a two-year low earlier this month. Of the 38 analysts tracked by Bloomberg covering it, 34 recommend buying it. The company’s valuation may begin to rebound as prospects improve with its geographical expansion, according to Nathan Naidu, an analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence.</p><p>For now, though, the shares remain volatile. After a 32% rebound amid a tech rally in the last two days of last week, they dropped 6.7% Monday. Gang Ye, one of the other company founders, has lost $4.3 billion in wealth this year, while David Chen is no longer a billionaire.</p><p>“In the current economic environment, the level of anxiety about the effects of anticipated rate hikes by the Fed, along with rising inflation and impact from the Russian - Ukraine war just aren’t good for risky assets such as tech stocks,” BI’s Naidu said.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>One-Time Richest Singapore Tycoon Has Lost 80% of His Fortune</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOne-Time Richest Singapore Tycoon Has Lost 80% of His Fortune\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-17 10:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-16/sea-founder-loses-17-billion-in-one-of-tech-s-biggest-wipeouts?srnd=markets-vp><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Forrest Li is no longer among the world’s 500 richest peopleCompany will post a record quarterly loss, analysts estimateForrest LiPhotographer: Wei Leng Tay/BloombergJust a few months ago, Forrest Li ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-16/sea-founder-loses-17-billion-in-one-of-tech-s-biggest-wipeouts?srnd=markets-vp\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-16/sea-founder-loses-17-billion-in-one-of-tech-s-biggest-wipeouts?srnd=markets-vp","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106707720","content_text":"Forrest Li is no longer among the world’s 500 richest peopleCompany will post a record quarterly loss, analysts estimateForrest LiPhotographer: Wei Leng Tay/BloombergJust a few months ago, Forrest Li had a $22 billion fortune and was the richest person in Singapore. Now he’s emerging as one of the biggest losers from a market crash that’s wiped more than $1 trillion from the net worth of the world’s 500 richest people this year.It’s been a litany of unfortunate events for the Sea Ltd. founder: The tech selloff, the shutdown of its main e-commerce operation in India and disappointing earnings have tanked the company’s American depository receipts more than 80% from a peak in October. He’s still rich -- worth $4.7 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index -- but no longer enough to make the cutoff for the top 500 on the planet.Traders are preparing for more bad news. The company, which is scheduled to report first-quarter earnings later Tuesday, is expected to post a record loss of more than $740 million, according to the average analyst estimate compiled by Bloomberg. Sea’s net loss had already widened in the final three months of last year as the firm sped up its expansion.The downfall showcases the vulnerability of the quick wealth creation from the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic -- when tech giants benefited from greater demand for their services such as Sea’s e-commerce and gaming. Higher interest rates and the tensions surrounding the war in Ukraine are further hurting growth stocks.“Sea is going to see increasing challenges in 2022,” said Shawn Yang, managing director at Blue Lotus Capital, an independent equity research firm in Hong Kong that cut the stock’s target price to $105 from $180 on May 10.The company’s e-commerce sales, its main source of revenue, could come short of its annual guidance of $8.9 billion to $9.1 billion as it faces intensifying competition from rivals including Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and as consumers return to offline stores with the easing of Covid restrictions, Yang said.A Sea representative declined to comment for this story.Beyond Li, many tech entrepreneurs who saw their wealth rise on the back of the pandemic-induced growth are being hit hard by the market selloff. Eric Yuan, chief executive officer of Zoom Video Communications Inc., has lost $4.4 billion of wealth this year, while the fortune of Amazon.com Inc.’s Jeff Bezos, the world’s second-richest person, is down almost $58 billion. Ernie Garcia II and Ernie Garcia III, the father-son duo that runs used-car company Carvana Co., have shed $15 billion combined.Sea’s valuation collapse prompted the usually low-profile Li to reach out to his employees in March. In a 900-word internal memo, he told them not to fear and that while the drop is painful, “this is short-term pain that we have to endure to truly maximize our long-term potential.”Analysts generally remain optimistic about Sea’s future even though the stock fell to a two-year low earlier this month. Of the 38 analysts tracked by Bloomberg covering it, 34 recommend buying it. The company’s valuation may begin to rebound as prospects improve with its geographical expansion, according to Nathan Naidu, an analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence.For now, though, the shares remain volatile. After a 32% rebound amid a tech rally in the last two days of last week, they dropped 6.7% Monday. Gang Ye, one of the other company founders, has lost $4.3 billion in wealth this year, while David Chen is no longer a billionaire.“In the current economic environment, the level of anxiety about the effects of anticipated rate hikes by the Fed, along with rising inflation and impact from the Russian - Ukraine war just aren’t good for risky assets such as tech stocks,” BI’s Naidu said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":260,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9029624487,"gmtCreate":1652773858549,"gmtModify":1676535158950,"author":{"id":"4104550162133600","authorId":"4104550162133600","name":"Punggol123","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/51f2350f5aa8faa435afc5bd6a314f02","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4104550162133600","authorIdStr":"4104550162133600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting &amp; insightful","listText":"Interesting &amp; insightful","text":"Interesting & insightful","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9029624487","repostId":"1167257580","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167257580","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1652754572,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1167257580?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-17 10:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: A Smart Way to Play Tesla’s Big Stock-Market Swings Using Options","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167257580","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Take advantage of this pattern of implied volatility of Tesla put optionsAFP via Getty ImagesTesla h","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Take advantage of this pattern of implied volatility of Tesla put options</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dd8dffa3cf63cb0bfdceb9885f4027f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"484\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>AFP via Getty Images</span></p><p>Tesla has recently been one of the most active and volatile stocks. However, what appears to the naked eye is not always the same when placed under the microscope of analytical mathematics.</p><p>Let’s begin by looking at the stock’s one-year chart:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b46d4e3160f8830fb77d787257d05e32\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"523\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Lawrence McMillan</span></p><p>We can see that the stock was in a steady uptrend from May through October of 2021. Then, it experienced a strong rise into November. Since then, it has been volatile – swinging back and forth in wide ranges and generally moving lower. Note that the stock bottomed in the 550-570 area back in May 2021.</p><p>This action has increased both the realized volatility of Tesla stock and the price of its options. In reality, though, Tesla options are not very expensive on a historical basis. However, there is a pattern to the pricing of the Tesla options that presents itself as a highly viable strategy.</p><p><b>A look into Tesla volatility</b></p><p>Let’s begin with some analysis of the volatility of Tesla and its options. Currently, the stock’s 20-day realized (historical) volatility (HV) is 82%. I would not be too concerned with what 82% means statistically, but rather use it for comparison with other volatility measures. The 50-day HV is 70%, and the 100-day HV is 71%. So those are in the same general neighborhood.</p><p>This chart shows the 20-day HV overlaid on top of the chart of the stock.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef2fc8c1e05b180584420867e11c1e4\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"523\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Lawrence McMillan</span></p><p>The 20-day HV (top graph) was declining when Tesla was rising, from May through October 2021. That is typical. Since then, however, with Tesla swinging in a wide range, the 20-day HV has increased, although it has roughly stayed in a range of 55% to 90% since last November.</p><p>These historical volatilities come into sharper focus when we look at the implied volatilities of Tesla options. On a volume-weighted calculation, the composite implied volatility (CIV) of TSLA options is 71.4%. Since the historical volatilities were 82%, 70%, and 71%, that shows the implied volatility of Tesla options is “about right.” They are not overly expensive but nor are they cheap when we consider how fast the underlying stock has been moving around.</p><p>There is one more piece of information that we need to have to build an option strategy: a comparison of today’s implied volatility (CIV) with past daily readings of CIV. That is shown in the next chart.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d3bf3cf7cf70ca3d240bc6382e2d0cc\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"525\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Lawrence McMillan</span></p><p>You can see that the current CIV (71.3%) is toward the upper end of the range of CIVs over the past year. Last September, Tesla options were trading with an implied volatility of 31% — that is the low point on the Implied Volatility chart. In fact, over the past 600 trading days, the current reading of 71.3% is in the 67th percentile. The percentile is merely an easy way to state how expensive the options are, on a scale of 0 to 100. So they are a little bit “overpriced” but not tremendously so.</p><p><b>Option strategies to consider</b></p><p><b>Call purchase:</b>So what option strategies make sense? If you are bullish on the stock, you are not really overpaying for an outright call purchase; the outright purchase of the at-the-money, June (17th) 770 call costs 70 points, or $7,000 for one contract. That is a large dollar amount for one call, but statistically is not a terribly high price, for its implied volatility is about 75% — generally in line with the volatilities that were discussed above.</p><p>One could counter that dollar expense a little by creating a call bull spread – perhaps selling the Jun (17th) 870 call against the call you are buying. That would bring in roughly $3,000 but would cap off your profit potential at 870.</p><p>As one can see from the accompanying stock charts, the stock could be above 870 very quickly if things turn bullish.</p><p>Personally, with the CIV in the 67th percentile, if I were outright bullish on the stock, I would not bother with a call bull spread because it caps off your profit potential. Call bull spreads only make statistical sense if the CIV is much higher – perhaps near the 90th percentile or higher.</p><p><b>Put purchase:</b> Essentially, the same argument applies if you are bearish on the stock: buy the at-the-money put and don’t spread. There is a small argument in favor of a bear spread (for example, buy the June 770 put and sell the Jun 670 put) over the call bull spread, which we’ll get to in a minute.</p><p><b>Put sale:</b> If one wouldn’t mind owning the stock at 550, the June (17th) 550 put could be sold for about 8 points. That is where the support was on the above stock charts, and is an implied volatility of 90% — meaning that you would be selling an expensive option (since 90% is higher than the other volatilities discussed above).</p><p>The problem with a put sale is that if the stock drops below 550, one might not be so willing to own the stock. But the put sale can always be closed out for a loss if Tesla is falling.</p><p><b>Neutral strategy:</b> A neutral strategy is generally one in which the strategist doesn’t necessarily hold a strong opinion about the forthcoming movements in the underlying stock, but rather can build an option strategy that makes money in a large number of outcomes. Neutral strategies have risk, though, and they cannot just be established willy-nilly without understanding the specifics of the strategy.</p><p>One strategy that seems to be viable here involves what is called a “skew” in the implied volatility of the options – particularly the put options. It is often the case with index options, and with stock options where the underlying stock is in a downtrend, that out-of-the-money puts are far more expensive than at-the-money puts.</p><p>Consider the following current information:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04070d2c608f982be2031e33d0f1a735\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"489\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The pattern of implied volatility of Tesla put options is called a “negative” skew or “reverse” skew – meaning that out-of-the-money puts are expensive, when compared with at-the-money puts.</p><p>By the way, the pattern does not extend to the TSLA calls unless one is looking at extremely far out-of-the-money calls.</p><p>When there is a reverse skew, any option strategy that takes advantage of the skew buy puts with “higher” strikes (at-the-money, say), and sell puts with lower strikes. That is why it was noted above that a put bear spread might make some sense (even though it would cap off your downside profit potential, which you probably would not want if you were bearish on Tesla).</p><p>However, in this case, we are looking for a more neutral strategy. One of my favorite strategies in this case is to:</p><ol><li>Buy a high strike put</li><li>Sell a lower strike put</li><li>Sell an <i>even</i> lower strike put</li><li>Buy a deeply out-of-the-money to cap off risk</li></ol><p>Suppose we establish this strategy:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dd43eeb4e41f843bf8bb69e4ff3b226\" tg-width=\"933\" tg-height=\"387\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Note that we are buying a lower volatility (80%) and selling two higher volatilities (82% and 88%) on the three higher strikes in the spread. The fourth leg is there mainly to limit risk and reduce the money needed to establish the spread.</p><p>If you want to attach a name to this strategy, it is often called a “broken-wing” butterfly spread.</p><p>If the stock is above 700 at expiration, you would profit by the amount of the initial credit ($600 in this case) because all of the puts would expire worthless in that case.</p><p>If the stock is between 570 and 680 at expiration, you make $2,600 on the spread.</p><p>But if the stock falls below 544 at expiration, you have risk down to the lowest strike, in this case 400. That would generally be too much risk to take (144 points), so in practice, one would stop out this spread if Tesla fell below the lowest short strike, 570. Recall that was the March 2021 low for the stock, so in theory there might be some support at that level. If it fails, then it would be time to abandon this spread.</p><p>This is one other interesting aspect to spreads that attempt to take advantage of the skew. The position can often be removed in advance of expiration for a reasonable credit (not the maximum credit, of course). This is due to the way that options decay when there is a skew. For example, if Tesla is between 680 and 700 in early June, one would likely be able to remove the spread for a credit of 5 to 10 points.</p><p>The following graph shows the profit and risk potential of this spread if held until expiration. As noted above, one should stop out the position if Tesla falls below 570, rather than risk it dropping to 400.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf90dc892adef9c4bd9106677613be48\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"526\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Lawrence McMillan</span></p><p>This type of spread can only be established in a margin account. Even though there is no margin debit, the requirements for spread trading in options necessitate what is called “collateral margin” to finance the spread. In essence, one must advance the risk of the spread when it is established. Option-oriented brokerage firms might reduce that requirement, but the ultimate risk is the 144 points between the two lower strikes, less the initial credit of 6 points, or $13,800.</p><p>Typically, an account with a larger portfolio of stocks might consider a spread such as this as an “overlay,” where the borrowing power of the stocks could be used to finance the spread without actually having to advance cash for the collateral requirement.</p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p>Tesla options are fairly priced. Thus any speculative strategy can be undertaken without fear of having overpaid for the options. Since the options are fairly priced, do not use vertical spreads (call bull spreads or put bear spreads are not optimal at this time). The presence of the reverse skew in the puts means that traders with a more theoretical or neutral bent can consider spreads where puts with higher strikes are bought and puts with lower strikes are sold. The “broken-wing” butterfly is just one example of that type of spread.</p><p>Finally, investors with a longer-term view might consider selling expensive, deeply out-of-the-money (expensive) Tesla puts, if they wouldn’t mind buying the stock at the strike price should the share price fall.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: A Smart Way to Play Tesla’s Big Stock-Market Swings Using Options</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: A Smart Way to Play Tesla’s Big Stock-Market Swings Using Options\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-17 10:29 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-smart-way-to-play-teslas-big-stock-market-swings-using-options-11652714566?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Take advantage of this pattern of implied volatility of Tesla put optionsAFP via Getty ImagesTesla has recently been one of the most active and volatile stocks. However, what appears to the naked eye ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-smart-way-to-play-teslas-big-stock-market-swings-using-options-11652714566?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-smart-way-to-play-teslas-big-stock-market-swings-using-options-11652714566?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167257580","content_text":"Take advantage of this pattern of implied volatility of Tesla put optionsAFP via Getty ImagesTesla has recently been one of the most active and volatile stocks. However, what appears to the naked eye is not always the same when placed under the microscope of analytical mathematics.Let’s begin by looking at the stock’s one-year chart:Lawrence McMillanWe can see that the stock was in a steady uptrend from May through October of 2021. Then, it experienced a strong rise into November. Since then, it has been volatile – swinging back and forth in wide ranges and generally moving lower. Note that the stock bottomed in the 550-570 area back in May 2021.This action has increased both the realized volatility of Tesla stock and the price of its options. In reality, though, Tesla options are not very expensive on a historical basis. However, there is a pattern to the pricing of the Tesla options that presents itself as a highly viable strategy.A look into Tesla volatilityLet’s begin with some analysis of the volatility of Tesla and its options. Currently, the stock’s 20-day realized (historical) volatility (HV) is 82%. I would not be too concerned with what 82% means statistically, but rather use it for comparison with other volatility measures. The 50-day HV is 70%, and the 100-day HV is 71%. So those are in the same general neighborhood.This chart shows the 20-day HV overlaid on top of the chart of the stock.Lawrence McMillanThe 20-day HV (top graph) was declining when Tesla was rising, from May through October 2021. That is typical. Since then, however, with Tesla swinging in a wide range, the 20-day HV has increased, although it has roughly stayed in a range of 55% to 90% since last November.These historical volatilities come into sharper focus when we look at the implied volatilities of Tesla options. On a volume-weighted calculation, the composite implied volatility (CIV) of TSLA options is 71.4%. Since the historical volatilities were 82%, 70%, and 71%, that shows the implied volatility of Tesla options is “about right.” They are not overly expensive but nor are they cheap when we consider how fast the underlying stock has been moving around.There is one more piece of information that we need to have to build an option strategy: a comparison of today’s implied volatility (CIV) with past daily readings of CIV. That is shown in the next chart.Lawrence McMillanYou can see that the current CIV (71.3%) is toward the upper end of the range of CIVs over the past year. Last September, Tesla options were trading with an implied volatility of 31% — that is the low point on the Implied Volatility chart. In fact, over the past 600 trading days, the current reading of 71.3% is in the 67th percentile. The percentile is merely an easy way to state how expensive the options are, on a scale of 0 to 100. So they are a little bit “overpriced” but not tremendously so.Option strategies to considerCall purchase:So what option strategies make sense? If you are bullish on the stock, you are not really overpaying for an outright call purchase; the outright purchase of the at-the-money, June (17th) 770 call costs 70 points, or $7,000 for one contract. That is a large dollar amount for one call, but statistically is not a terribly high price, for its implied volatility is about 75% — generally in line with the volatilities that were discussed above.One could counter that dollar expense a little by creating a call bull spread – perhaps selling the Jun (17th) 870 call against the call you are buying. That would bring in roughly $3,000 but would cap off your profit potential at 870.As one can see from the accompanying stock charts, the stock could be above 870 very quickly if things turn bullish.Personally, with the CIV in the 67th percentile, if I were outright bullish on the stock, I would not bother with a call bull spread because it caps off your profit potential. Call bull spreads only make statistical sense if the CIV is much higher – perhaps near the 90th percentile or higher.Put purchase: Essentially, the same argument applies if you are bearish on the stock: buy the at-the-money put and don’t spread. There is a small argument in favor of a bear spread (for example, buy the June 770 put and sell the Jun 670 put) over the call bull spread, which we’ll get to in a minute.Put sale: If one wouldn’t mind owning the stock at 550, the June (17th) 550 put could be sold for about 8 points. That is where the support was on the above stock charts, and is an implied volatility of 90% — meaning that you would be selling an expensive option (since 90% is higher than the other volatilities discussed above).The problem with a put sale is that if the stock drops below 550, one might not be so willing to own the stock. But the put sale can always be closed out for a loss if Tesla is falling.Neutral strategy: A neutral strategy is generally one in which the strategist doesn’t necessarily hold a strong opinion about the forthcoming movements in the underlying stock, but rather can build an option strategy that makes money in a large number of outcomes. Neutral strategies have risk, though, and they cannot just be established willy-nilly without understanding the specifics of the strategy.One strategy that seems to be viable here involves what is called a “skew” in the implied volatility of the options – particularly the put options. It is often the case with index options, and with stock options where the underlying stock is in a downtrend, that out-of-the-money puts are far more expensive than at-the-money puts.Consider the following current information:The pattern of implied volatility of Tesla put options is called a “negative” skew or “reverse” skew – meaning that out-of-the-money puts are expensive, when compared with at-the-money puts.By the way, the pattern does not extend to the TSLA calls unless one is looking at extremely far out-of-the-money calls.When there is a reverse skew, any option strategy that takes advantage of the skew buy puts with “higher” strikes (at-the-money, say), and sell puts with lower strikes. That is why it was noted above that a put bear spread might make some sense (even though it would cap off your downside profit potential, which you probably would not want if you were bearish on Tesla).However, in this case, we are looking for a more neutral strategy. One of my favorite strategies in this case is to:Buy a high strike putSell a lower strike putSell an even lower strike putBuy a deeply out-of-the-money to cap off riskSuppose we establish this strategy:Note that we are buying a lower volatility (80%) and selling two higher volatilities (82% and 88%) on the three higher strikes in the spread. The fourth leg is there mainly to limit risk and reduce the money needed to establish the spread.If you want to attach a name to this strategy, it is often called a “broken-wing” butterfly spread.If the stock is above 700 at expiration, you would profit by the amount of the initial credit ($600 in this case) because all of the puts would expire worthless in that case.If the stock is between 570 and 680 at expiration, you make $2,600 on the spread.But if the stock falls below 544 at expiration, you have risk down to the lowest strike, in this case 400. That would generally be too much risk to take (144 points), so in practice, one would stop out this spread if Tesla fell below the lowest short strike, 570. Recall that was the March 2021 low for the stock, so in theory there might be some support at that level. If it fails, then it would be time to abandon this spread.This is one other interesting aspect to spreads that attempt to take advantage of the skew. The position can often be removed in advance of expiration for a reasonable credit (not the maximum credit, of course). This is due to the way that options decay when there is a skew. For example, if Tesla is between 680 and 700 in early June, one would likely be able to remove the spread for a credit of 5 to 10 points.The following graph shows the profit and risk potential of this spread if held until expiration. As noted above, one should stop out the position if Tesla falls below 570, rather than risk it dropping to 400.Lawrence McMillanThis type of spread can only be established in a margin account. Even though there is no margin debit, the requirements for spread trading in options necessitate what is called “collateral margin” to finance the spread. In essence, one must advance the risk of the spread when it is established. Option-oriented brokerage firms might reduce that requirement, but the ultimate risk is the 144 points between the two lower strikes, less the initial credit of 6 points, or $13,800.Typically, an account with a larger portfolio of stocks might consider a spread such as this as an “overlay,” where the borrowing power of the stocks could be used to finance the spread without actually having to advance cash for the collateral requirement.SummaryTesla options are fairly priced. Thus any speculative strategy can be undertaken without fear of having overpaid for the options. Since the options are fairly priced, do not use vertical spreads (call bull spreads or put bear spreads are not optimal at this time). The presence of the reverse skew in the puts means that traders with a more theoretical or neutral bent can consider spreads where puts with higher strikes are bought and puts with lower strikes are sold. The “broken-wing” butterfly is just one example of that type of spread.Finally, investors with a longer-term view might consider selling expensive, deeply out-of-the-money (expensive) Tesla puts, if they wouldn’t mind buying the stock at the strike price should the share price fall.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":328,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9020181421,"gmtCreate":1652587324363,"gmtModify":1676535125572,"author":{"id":"4104550162133600","authorId":"4104550162133600","name":"Punggol123","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/51f2350f5aa8faa435afc5bd6a314f02","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4104550162133600","authorIdStr":"4104550162133600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>Good","listText":"<a 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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>fantastics!","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$fantastics!","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7c291e65bcb85d8b640ce912519a6e2e","width":"2160","height":"3840"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9020189674","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":258,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9020180411,"gmtCreate":1652586991233,"gmtModify":1676535125508,"author":{"id":"4104550162133600","authorId":"4104550162133600","name":"Punggol123","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/51f2350f5aa8faa435afc5bd6a314f02","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4104550162133600","authorIdStr":"4104550162133600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>Good","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>Good","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$Good","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6a47fe0417eaeb79aba16102a9048d64","width":"3024","height":"4032"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9020180411","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":164,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9020114629,"gmtCreate":1652586731761,"gmtModify":1676535125461,"author":{"id":"4104550162133600","authorId":"4104550162133600","name":"Punggol123","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/51f2350f5aa8faa435afc5bd6a314f02","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4104550162133600","authorIdStr":"4104550162133600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Informative","listText":"Informative","text":"Informative","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9020114629","repostId":"2235891744","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2235891744","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1652575892,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2235891744?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-15 08:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Are Stocks on the Verge of a Bear Market? Stagflation, the Fed and What Investors Need to Know","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2235891744","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"It will take more than Friday's big  bounce to put to rest the fear of a bear market in stocks as uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's ability to get a grip on inflation without sinking the economy","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>It will take more than Friday&#39;s big  bounce to put to rest the fear of a bear market in stocks as uncertainty about the Federal Reserve&#39;s ability to get a grip on inflation without sinking the economy stokes fears of stagflation -- a pernicious combination of slow economic growth and persistent inflation.</p><p>Stagflation is &#34;an awful environment&#34; for investors, usually resulting in stocks and bonds losing value simultaneously and playing havoc with traditional portfolios divided 60% to stocks and 40% to bonds, said Nancy Davis, founder of Quadratic Capital Management.</p><p>That&#39;s already been the case in 2022. Bond markets have lost ground as Treasury yields, which move opposite to prices, soared in reaction to inflation running at the highest in more than forty years along with expectations for aggressive monetary tightening by the Fed. Since the S&amp;P 500 index&#39;s record close on Jan. 3 this year stocks have been on a slide that&#39;s left the large-capitalization benchmark on the verge of formally entering bear market territory.</p><p>The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEME\">iShares</a> Core U.S. Aggregate Bond <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGG\">$(AGG)$</a> is down more than 10% year to date through Friday. It tracks the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, which includes Treasurys, corporate bonds, munis, mortgage-backed securities and asset-backed securities. The S&amp;P 500  is down 15.6% over the same stretch.</p><p>The situation leaves &#34;practically nowhere to hide,&#34; wrote analysts at Montreal-based PGM Global, in a note this past week.</p><p>&#34;Not only are long-term Treasuries and Investment Grade credit moving nearly <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-for-one, but selloffs in long-term Treasuries are also coinciding more frequently with down days in the S&amp;P 500,&#34; they said.</p><p>Investors looking for solace were disappointed on Wednesday. The eagerly awaited U.S. April consumer price index showed the annual pace of inflation slowed to 8.3% from a more than four decade high of 8.5% in March, but economists had been looking for a more pronounced slowing, and the core reading, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, showed an unexpected monthly uptick.</p><p>That&#39;s underlined stagflation fears.</p><p>Davis is also portfolio manager of the Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge Exchange-Traded Fund <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IVOL\">$(IVOL)$</a>, with roughly $1.65 billion in assets, which aims to serve as a hedge against rising fixed-income volatility. The fund holds inflation-protected securities and has exposure to the differential between short- and long-term interest rates, she said.</p><p>The rates market at present is &#34;very complacent,&#34; she said, in a phone interview, signaling expectations that Fed interest rate hikes are &#34;going to create a disinflationary environment,&#34; when tightening is unlikely to do anything to resolve the supply-side problems that are plaguing the economy in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.</p><p>Meanwhile, analysts and traders were debating whether the stock market&#39;s Friday bounce heralded the start of a bottoming process or was merely a bounce from oversold conditions. Skepticism of a bottom ran high.</p><p>&#34;Following a week of heavy selling, but with inflationary pressures easing just at the margin, and the Fed still seemingly wedded to 50 basis point hikes for each of the next two [rate-setting] meetings, the market was poised for the kind of strong rally endemic to bear market rallies,&#34; said Quincy Krosby, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial.</p><p>Mark Hulbert:The beginning of the end of the stock market&#39;s correction could be near</p><p>&#34;Friday&#39;s bounce managed to cut this week&#39;s losses nearly in half, but despite the massive upside volume, overall volume was sub-par and more will be needed to think even minor lows are at hand,&#34; said Mark Newton, head of technical strategy at Fundstrat.</p><p>It was quite a bounce. The Nasdaq Composite , which slipped into a bear market earlier this year and fell to a nearly 2 1/2-year low in the past week, jumped 3.8% Friday for its biggest one-day percentage gain since Nov. 4, 2020. That trimmed its weekly fall to a still hefty 2.8%.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 bounced 2.4%, nearly halving its weekly decline. That left the large-cap U.S. benchmark down  down 16.1% from its record close in early January, after ending Thursday just shy of the 20% pullback that would meet the technical definition of a bear market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average  rose 466.36, or 1.7%, leaving it with a weekly decline of 2.1%.</p><p>And all three major indexes are sporting long, weekly losing streaks, with the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq each down for six straight weeks, the longest stretch since 2011 and 2012, respectively, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The Dow booked its seventh consecutive losing week -- its longest streak since 2001.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 has yet to formally enter a bear market, but analysts see no shortage of ursine behavior.</p><p>As Jeff deGraaf, founder of Renaissance Macro Research, observed on Wednesday, correlations between stocks were running in the 90th to 100th decile, meaning lockstep performance that suggested equities were largely trading in unison -- &#34;one of the defining characteristics of a bear market.&#34;</p><p>While the S&amp;P 500 has moved &#34;uncomfortably close&#34; to a bear market, it&#39;s important to keep in mind that big stock-market pullbacks are normal and occur with frequency, analysts said. Barron&#39;s noted that the stock market has seen 10 bear-market pullbacks since 1950, and numerous other corrections and other significant pullbacks.</p><p>But the speed and scope of the recent rally may understandably be leaving investors rattled, particularly those who haven&#39;t experienced a volatile downturn, said Randy Frederick, managing director of trading and derivatives at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, in a phone interview.</p><p>The rally had seen &#34;every single sector of the market going up,&#34; he noted. &#34;That&#39;s not a normal market&#34; and now the worm has turned as monetary and fiscal policy tightens up in reaction to hot inflation.</p><p>The appropriate response, he said, is to follow the same tried-and-true but &#34;boring&#34; advice usually offered during volatile markets: stay diversified, hold many asset classes and don&#39;t panic or make wholesale changes to portfolios.</p><p>&#34;It&#39;s not fun right now,&#34; he said, but &#34;this is how real markets work.&#34;</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Are Stocks on the Verge of a Bear Market? Stagflation, the Fed and What Investors Need to Know</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Are Stocks on the Verge of a Bear Market? Stagflation, the Fed and What Investors Need to Know\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-05-15 08:51</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>It will take more than Friday&#39;s big  bounce to put to rest the fear of a bear market in stocks as uncertainty about the Federal Reserve&#39;s ability to get a grip on inflation without sinking the economy stokes fears of stagflation -- a pernicious combination of slow economic growth and persistent inflation.</p><p>Stagflation is &#34;an awful environment&#34; for investors, usually resulting in stocks and bonds losing value simultaneously and playing havoc with traditional portfolios divided 60% to stocks and 40% to bonds, said Nancy Davis, founder of Quadratic Capital Management.</p><p>That&#39;s already been the case in 2022. Bond markets have lost ground as Treasury yields, which move opposite to prices, soared in reaction to inflation running at the highest in more than forty years along with expectations for aggressive monetary tightening by the Fed. Since the S&amp;P 500 index&#39;s record close on Jan. 3 this year stocks have been on a slide that&#39;s left the large-capitalization benchmark on the verge of formally entering bear market territory.</p><p>The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEME\">iShares</a> Core U.S. Aggregate Bond <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGG\">$(AGG)$</a> is down more than 10% year to date through Friday. It tracks the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, which includes Treasurys, corporate bonds, munis, mortgage-backed securities and asset-backed securities. The S&amp;P 500  is down 15.6% over the same stretch.</p><p>The situation leaves &#34;practically nowhere to hide,&#34; wrote analysts at Montreal-based PGM Global, in a note this past week.</p><p>&#34;Not only are long-term Treasuries and Investment Grade credit moving nearly <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-for-one, but selloffs in long-term Treasuries are also coinciding more frequently with down days in the S&amp;P 500,&#34; they said.</p><p>Investors looking for solace were disappointed on Wednesday. The eagerly awaited U.S. April consumer price index showed the annual pace of inflation slowed to 8.3% from a more than four decade high of 8.5% in March, but economists had been looking for a more pronounced slowing, and the core reading, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, showed an unexpected monthly uptick.</p><p>That&#39;s underlined stagflation fears.</p><p>Davis is also portfolio manager of the Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge Exchange-Traded Fund <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IVOL\">$(IVOL)$</a>, with roughly $1.65 billion in assets, which aims to serve as a hedge against rising fixed-income volatility. The fund holds inflation-protected securities and has exposure to the differential between short- and long-term interest rates, she said.</p><p>The rates market at present is &#34;very complacent,&#34; she said, in a phone interview, signaling expectations that Fed interest rate hikes are &#34;going to create a disinflationary environment,&#34; when tightening is unlikely to do anything to resolve the supply-side problems that are plaguing the economy in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.</p><p>Meanwhile, analysts and traders were debating whether the stock market&#39;s Friday bounce heralded the start of a bottoming process or was merely a bounce from oversold conditions. Skepticism of a bottom ran high.</p><p>&#34;Following a week of heavy selling, but with inflationary pressures easing just at the margin, and the Fed still seemingly wedded to 50 basis point hikes for each of the next two [rate-setting] meetings, the market was poised for the kind of strong rally endemic to bear market rallies,&#34; said Quincy Krosby, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial.</p><p>Mark Hulbert:The beginning of the end of the stock market&#39;s correction could be near</p><p>&#34;Friday&#39;s bounce managed to cut this week&#39;s losses nearly in half, but despite the massive upside volume, overall volume was sub-par and more will be needed to think even minor lows are at hand,&#34; said Mark Newton, head of technical strategy at Fundstrat.</p><p>It was quite a bounce. The Nasdaq Composite , which slipped into a bear market earlier this year and fell to a nearly 2 1/2-year low in the past week, jumped 3.8% Friday for its biggest one-day percentage gain since Nov. 4, 2020. That trimmed its weekly fall to a still hefty 2.8%.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 bounced 2.4%, nearly halving its weekly decline. That left the large-cap U.S. benchmark down  down 16.1% from its record close in early January, after ending Thursday just shy of the 20% pullback that would meet the technical definition of a bear market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average  rose 466.36, or 1.7%, leaving it with a weekly decline of 2.1%.</p><p>And all three major indexes are sporting long, weekly losing streaks, with the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq each down for six straight weeks, the longest stretch since 2011 and 2012, respectively, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The Dow booked its seventh consecutive losing week -- its longest streak since 2001.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 has yet to formally enter a bear market, but analysts see no shortage of ursine behavior.</p><p>As Jeff deGraaf, founder of Renaissance Macro Research, observed on Wednesday, correlations between stocks were running in the 90th to 100th decile, meaning lockstep performance that suggested equities were largely trading in unison -- &#34;one of the defining characteristics of a bear market.&#34;</p><p>While the S&amp;P 500 has moved &#34;uncomfortably close&#34; to a bear market, it&#39;s important to keep in mind that big stock-market pullbacks are normal and occur with frequency, analysts said. Barron&#39;s noted that the stock market has seen 10 bear-market pullbacks since 1950, and numerous other corrections and other significant pullbacks.</p><p>But the speed and scope of the recent rally may understandably be leaving investors rattled, particularly those who haven&#39;t experienced a volatile downturn, said Randy Frederick, managing director of trading and derivatives at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, in a phone interview.</p><p>The rally had seen &#34;every single sector of the market going up,&#34; he noted. &#34;That&#39;s not a normal market&#34; and now the worm has turned as monetary and fiscal policy tightens up in reaction to hot inflation.</p><p>The appropriate response, he said, is to follow the same tried-and-true but &#34;boring&#34; advice usually offered during volatile markets: stay diversified, hold many asset classes and don&#39;t panic or make wholesale changes to portfolios.</p><p>&#34;It&#39;s not fun right now,&#34; he said, but &#34;this is how real markets work.&#34;</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","IVOL":"Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","AGG":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays综合国债","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SH":"标普500反向ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2235891744","content_text":"It will take more than Friday's big  bounce to put to rest the fear of a bear market in stocks as uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's ability to get a grip on inflation without sinking the economy stokes fears of stagflation -- a pernicious combination of slow economic growth and persistent inflation.Stagflation is \"an awful environment\" for investors, usually resulting in stocks and bonds losing value simultaneously and playing havoc with traditional portfolios divided 60% to stocks and 40% to bonds, said Nancy Davis, founder of Quadratic Capital Management.That's already been the case in 2022. Bond markets have lost ground as Treasury yields, which move opposite to prices, soared in reaction to inflation running at the highest in more than forty years along with expectations for aggressive monetary tightening by the Fed. Since the S&P 500 index's record close on Jan. 3 this year stocks have been on a slide that's left the large-capitalization benchmark on the verge of formally entering bear market territory.The iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF $(AGG)$ is down more than 10% year to date through Friday. It tracks the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, which includes Treasurys, corporate bonds, munis, mortgage-backed securities and asset-backed securities. The S&P 500  is down 15.6% over the same stretch.The situation leaves \"practically nowhere to hide,\" wrote analysts at Montreal-based PGM Global, in a note this past week.\"Not only are long-term Treasuries and Investment Grade credit moving nearly one-for-one, but selloffs in long-term Treasuries are also coinciding more frequently with down days in the S&P 500,\" they said.Investors looking for solace were disappointed on Wednesday. The eagerly awaited U.S. April consumer price index showed the annual pace of inflation slowed to 8.3% from a more than four decade high of 8.5% in March, but economists had been looking for a more pronounced slowing, and the core reading, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, showed an unexpected monthly uptick.That's underlined stagflation fears.Davis is also portfolio manager of the Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge Exchange-Traded Fund $(IVOL)$, with roughly $1.65 billion in assets, which aims to serve as a hedge against rising fixed-income volatility. The fund holds inflation-protected securities and has exposure to the differential between short- and long-term interest rates, she said.The rates market at present is \"very complacent,\" she said, in a phone interview, signaling expectations that Fed interest rate hikes are \"going to create a disinflationary environment,\" when tightening is unlikely to do anything to resolve the supply-side problems that are plaguing the economy in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.Meanwhile, analysts and traders were debating whether the stock market's Friday bounce heralded the start of a bottoming process or was merely a bounce from oversold conditions. Skepticism of a bottom ran high.\"Following a week of heavy selling, but with inflationary pressures easing just at the margin, and the Fed still seemingly wedded to 50 basis point hikes for each of the next two [rate-setting] meetings, the market was poised for the kind of strong rally endemic to bear market rallies,\" said Quincy Krosby, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial.Mark Hulbert:The beginning of the end of the stock market's correction could be near\"Friday's bounce managed to cut this week's losses nearly in half, but despite the massive upside volume, overall volume was sub-par and more will be needed to think even minor lows are at hand,\" said Mark Newton, head of technical strategy at Fundstrat.It was quite a bounce. The Nasdaq Composite , which slipped into a bear market earlier this year and fell to a nearly 2 1/2-year low in the past week, jumped 3.8% Friday for its biggest one-day percentage gain since Nov. 4, 2020. That trimmed its weekly fall to a still hefty 2.8%.The S&P 500 bounced 2.4%, nearly halving its weekly decline. That left the large-cap U.S. benchmark down  down 16.1% from its record close in early January, after ending Thursday just shy of the 20% pullback that would meet the technical definition of a bear market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average  rose 466.36, or 1.7%, leaving it with a weekly decline of 2.1%.And all three major indexes are sporting long, weekly losing streaks, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each down for six straight weeks, the longest stretch since 2011 and 2012, respectively, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The Dow booked its seventh consecutive losing week -- its longest streak since 2001.The S&P 500 has yet to formally enter a bear market, but analysts see no shortage of ursine behavior.As Jeff deGraaf, founder of Renaissance Macro Research, observed on Wednesday, correlations between stocks were running in the 90th to 100th decile, meaning lockstep performance that suggested equities were largely trading in unison -- \"one of the defining characteristics of a bear market.\"While the S&P 500 has moved \"uncomfortably close\" to a bear market, it's important to keep in mind that big stock-market pullbacks are normal and occur with frequency, analysts said. Barron's noted that the stock market has seen 10 bear-market pullbacks since 1950, and numerous other corrections and other significant pullbacks.But the speed and scope of the recent rally may understandably be leaving investors rattled, particularly those who haven't experienced a volatile downturn, said Randy Frederick, managing director of trading and derivatives at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, in a phone interview.The rally had seen \"every single sector of the market going up,\" he noted. \"That's not a normal market\" and now the worm has turned as monetary and fiscal policy tightens up in reaction to hot inflation.The appropriate response, he said, is to follow the same tried-and-true but \"boring\" advice usually offered during volatile markets: stay diversified, hold many asset classes and don't panic or make wholesale changes to portfolios.\"It's not fun right now,\" he said, but \"this is how real markets work.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":204,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}