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- Hello helloHello hello
  ·2022-12-04
  Yo-yo
  NIO And XPeng: Don't Choose The One Getting Squeezed Out
  ThesisLeading Chinese pure-play EV makers NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) and XPeng Inc. (NYSE:XPEV) enjoyed a solid recovery in November. XPEV posted a 1M total return of 55.5% as the market forced bearish inves
  NIO And XPeng: Don't Choose The One Getting Squeezed Out
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- Hello helloHello hello
  ·2022-12-01
  Song uh
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- Hello helloHello hello
  ·2022-08-24
  Up up
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- Hello helloHello hello
  ·2022-08-23
  Gg
  Tesla Must Face The Comeback Of Affordable ICE Vehicles
  SummaryTesla has grown its sales while traditional automakers have shrunk.The chip shortage has driven the average transaction price of a new car higher than the price of a Model 3.This is unsustainable and as production returns, prices will drop.Tesla will need to respond with lower prices to be price competitive, which will hurt profitability, or it could face demand or growth risks.What's happened?It's hardly a splurge in today's market.A Model 3 costs "just" 30% more than the cheapest Honda
  Tesla Must Face The Comeback Of Affordable ICE Vehicles
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- Hello helloHello hello
  ·2022-08-17
  Amazing
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- Hello helloHello hello
  ·2022-08-11
  Nice
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  351 Comment
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- Hello helloHello hello
  ·2022-08-11
  Nice
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  285 Comment
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- Hello helloHello hello
  ·2022-04-01
  Nooooooo!
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- Hello helloHello hello
  ·2022-03-31
  get the bears out
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- Hello helloHello hello
  ·2022-02-17
  To the moon
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hello","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/41d5870886727f937efd33a187c8e58e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4107338879920220","authorIdStr":"4107338879920220"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yo-yo","listText":"Yo-yo","text":"Yo-yo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9964669616","repostId":"2288925832","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2288925832","pubTimestamp":1670121245,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2288925832?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-04 10:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO And XPeng: Don't Choose The One Getting Squeezed Out","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2288925832","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"ThesisLeading Chinese pure-play EV makers NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) and XPeng Inc. (NYSE:XPEV) enjoyed a solid recovery in November. XPEV posted a 1M total return of 55.5% as the market forced bearish inves","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0148afb1415d9966a462d316514fd0e2\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><h2>Thesis</h2><p>Leading Chinese pure-play EV makers NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) and XPeng Inc. (NYSE:XPEV) enjoyed a solid recovery in November. XPEV posted a 1M total return of 55.5% as the market forced bearish investors/weak holders to flee at its October lows. In contrast, NIO posted a 1M total return of 24.5%, as buying sentiments returned strongly to China&#39;s embattled pure-play BEV makers.</p><p>Notwithstanding, Chinese EV bears will point out that both stocks remain well below their starting point in 2022. Accordingly, XPEV&#39;s YTD total return of -80% suggests buyers have been decimated, while NIO posted a better YTD performance of -62%.</p><p>Hence, we believe it&#39;s opportune to update investors on whether the buying opportunity on the recent rally still has legs, as China seems to be progressively easing its COVID restrictions.</p><p>Our assessment indicates that one company has executed much better as China&#39;s economy worsened in 2022. China&#39;s stringent COVID restrictions and harsh property cooling measures have weakened its GDP growth significantly. Accordingly, China&#39;s manufacturing PMI also came below consensus estimates, behooving China to accelerate its reopening moves.</p><p>Coupled with heightened competition, higher input costs, supply chain disruptions, and a weaker economy, NIO has proved its mettle against XPeng. However, both companies remain unprofitable. With a narrowed route toward external financing, given the current market conditions, we believe investors will likely focus on the company that has executed better, with clearer visibility toward reaching profitability.</p><p>We believe the competitive landscape would likely intensify further. Legacy OEMs such as General Motors (GM), Ford (F), and Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY) have telegraphed ambitious plans to assume EV leadership by 2025/26. In addition, China&#39;s NEV leader BYD Company (OTCPK:BYDDY) has continued to penetrate the EV market further, consolidating its position as the global NEV leader (including hybrids) in Q3&#39;22, ahead of Tesla (TSLA).</p><p>Therefore, we urge investors to consider the business models and execution prowess of NIO and XPeng carefully as they take on profitable leading auto behemoths as they chart their path to profitability.</p><p>We discuss why we continue to put our bet in NIO as a potential multi-bagger speculative opportunity ahead of XPEV.</p><p>Maintain Speculative Buy on NIO and Hold on XPEV.</p><h2>Competition In China Has Intensified</h2><p>China&#39;s economic malaise has battered its consumer discretionary spending, including automobiles. Yet, China&#39;s leading NEV makers have made robust progress in 2022.</p><p>For instance, BYD delivered more than 230K of NEV in November, notching another monthly record, up nearly 153% YoY. Notably, BYD has continued to post consistent MoM gains since April 2022, corroborating the resilience of its highly vertically-integrated operating model.</p><p>Moreover, Volkswagen has continued to invest heavily in its prized Chinese market. General Motors have also stepped up on its endeavor, looking to introduce 15 EV models for the Chinese market by 2025.</p><p>Hence, we postulate that the competitive landscape in China could indicate that some unprofitable/less profitable upstarts could be squeezed out of the leading pack subsequently. With NIO and XPeng continuing to struggle for profitability, it&#39;s vital to assess which company could emerge as the stronger competitor to take on these behemoths.</p><p>Furthermore, China&#39;s NEV subsidies are due to be eliminated by 2023, even though Chinese media reported that there could be some revisions. Notwithstanding, it could neutralize/lessen a constructive tailwind that has driven sales over the past few years.</p><p>Therefore the market outlook remains uncertain while competition has intensified. As such, nothing short of excellent execution is required to navigate these challenges. And it&#39;s one that XPeng has fallen short in 2022.</p><h2>XPeng Restructures</h2><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61e462b6ef38ba6c0893c716ae23dcdc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>XPeng Vehicle margins % (Company filings)</span></p><p>Given XPeng&#39;s low vehicle margins operating model, it&#39;s imperative for the company to continue posting robust production and deliveries growth to benefit significantly from fixed costs leverage.</p><p>However, XPeng&#39;s massive Q3 deliveries disappointment highlighted the execution weakness in a challenging macro and supply chain environment, in which leaders BYD and NIO performed admirably.</p><p>With a vehicle margin of just 11.6% in Q3 (up from Q2&#39;s 9.1%), XPeng&#39;s profitability has improved QoQ.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e172d47aa15683ff6c89cf5c9e8dbd2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>XPeng Deliveries (Company filings)</span></p><p>However, the company posted deliveries growth of just 15% in FQ3; a massive downshift from FQ2&#39;s 98%. As such, we believe it triggered a rethinking of its strategies, leading the company to announce an organizational restructuring, as CEO He Xiaoping emphasized:</p><blockquote>Frankly, we&#39;re going through a very challenging period in pursuing our long-term goals. In response, we recently conducted an in-depth strategic review and implemented organizational restructure. As market competition intensifies, we&#39;ll sharpen our marketing to highlight the great value in our industry-leading smart and electrification technologies and further enhance our branding, sales, and service capabilities. (XPeng FQ3&#39;22 earnings call)</blockquote><p>Hence, we believe there&#39;s little doubt that the increasingly competitive landscape hammered XPeng&#39;s execution. Therefore, moving forward, we think it&#39;s better to watch the action from the sidelines unless you have a very high conviction in XPeng&#39;s management.</p><p>XPeng announced October and November deliveries of 5.1K and 5.81K, respectively. As such, the company needs to deliver about 9.59K of NEV (midpoint) in Q4, predicated on the ramp of its G9. XPeng emphasized: &#34;The Company expects that deliveries will significantly increase in December 2022 as G9&#39;s production ramp-up accelerates under normalized operating conditions.&#34;</p><p>We believe that XPEV&#39;s battering toward its October lows has likely reflected significant pessimism. But, we don&#39;t think the recent rally is sustainable, as its price action suggests a massive covering rally.</p><p>As such, we urge investors thinking of cutting exposure to leverage on the recent recovery to take some risks off the table and rotate.</p><h2>Rotate To NIO<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b388563a2b413a07256e586ffbaa59a0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>NIO Deliveries (Company filings)</span></p></h2><p>NIO posted 14.18K in NEV deliveries for November, up nearly 41% MoM. As such, NIO demonstrated that its premium EV strategy is working well, despite China&#39;s economic malaise.</p><p>While China&#39;s COVID restrictions have impacted its production cadence, we believe it could be less material moving forward as China progressively eases.</p><p>Hence, NIO should be able to focus primarily on its execution as it looks to deliver its Q4 guidance of 45.5K NEVs (midpoint). The company appears confident in its recent deliveries outlook as NIO emphasized: &#34;NIO will further accelerate the production and delivery in December 2022.&#34;</p><p>NIO CEO William Li also telegraphed recently why it&#39;s critical for NIO to remain deeply entrenched as one of China&#39;s leading NEV leaders, given intensifying competition. Li accentuated:</p><blockquote>If a company is squeezed into the second tier in the final round [of competition in 2024/25], it is basically impossible for it to catch up to the first tier if it wants to. You can only be a second-tier languishing, barely alive person. - CnEVPost</blockquote><p>Therefore, we believe it&#39;s no surprise that the timeline aligns well with the milestones indicated by the legacy OEMs makers as they transform into EV companies.</p><p>Don&#39;t assume these OEM makers are &#34;dead&#34; yet, as they invest profits from their ICE segments to take on unprofitable EV makers. The battle is far from over, and we believe only the fittest EV makers could survive the increasingly competitive landscape.</p><h2>Is NIO Or XPEV Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</h2><p><i>Maintain Speculative Buy on NIO and Hold on XPEV.</i></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbee3aba450db5a7c84dee25b0094d59\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>XPEV price chart (weekly) (TradingView)</span></p><p>The market had gotten XPEV spot on, knowing that it could face significant competitive pressures that could impact its operating model considerably.</p><p>As such, the market&#39;s battering from its June highs has likely reflected its positioning. Hence, the recent sharp rally from its October lows resembled a covering move from bearish investors taking profit and cutting exposure.</p><p>As such, we urge investors not to join this rally but consider taking the opportunity to take some risks off the table.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/315a624b01e18068ea47037b78f4f8b6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>NIO price chart (weekly) (TradingView)</span></p><p>NIO&#39;s price action looks much more robust than XPEV, with no clear signs of a massive covering rally. Therefore, buyers are likely accumulating, trapping bearish investors at its long-term support and holding that defense line constructively.</p><p>Hence, we believe the opportunity for a mean-reversion rally for NIO is still attractive at these levels. XPEV investors who decide to cut exposure can consider rotating some exposure to NIO to take them toward the next stage of the competition in China&#39;s increasingly competitive EV market.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO And XPeng: Don't Choose The One Getting Squeezed Out</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO And XPeng: Don't Choose The One Getting Squeezed Out\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-04 10:34 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562162-nio-vs-xpeng-dont-choose-one-getting-squeezed-out><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>ThesisLeading Chinese pure-play EV makers NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) and XPeng Inc. (NYSE:XPEV) enjoyed a solid recovery in November. XPEV posted a 1M total return of 55.5% as the market forced bearish ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562162-nio-vs-xpeng-dont-choose-one-getting-squeezed-out\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","BK4526":"热门中概股","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","09866":"蔚来-SW","LU0052750758.USD":"富兰克林中国基金A Acc","LU0320764599.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton China A Acc SGD","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","NIO.SI":"蔚来","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0708995583.HKD":"TEMPLETON CHINA \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4509":"腾讯概念"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562162-nio-vs-xpeng-dont-choose-one-getting-squeezed-out","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2288925832","content_text":"ThesisLeading Chinese pure-play EV makers NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) and XPeng Inc. (NYSE:XPEV) enjoyed a solid recovery in November. XPEV posted a 1M total return of 55.5% as the market forced bearish investors/weak holders to flee at its October lows. In contrast, NIO posted a 1M total return of 24.5%, as buying sentiments returned strongly to China's embattled pure-play BEV makers.Notwithstanding, Chinese EV bears will point out that both stocks remain well below their starting point in 2022. Accordingly, XPEV's YTD total return of -80% suggests buyers have been decimated, while NIO posted a better YTD performance of -62%.Hence, we believe it's opportune to update investors on whether the buying opportunity on the recent rally still has legs, as China seems to be progressively easing its COVID restrictions.Our assessment indicates that one company has executed much better as China's economy worsened in 2022. China's stringent COVID restrictions and harsh property cooling measures have weakened its GDP growth significantly. Accordingly, China's manufacturing PMI also came below consensus estimates, behooving China to accelerate its reopening moves.Coupled with heightened competition, higher input costs, supply chain disruptions, and a weaker economy, NIO has proved its mettle against XPeng. However, both companies remain unprofitable. With a narrowed route toward external financing, given the current market conditions, we believe investors will likely focus on the company that has executed better, with clearer visibility toward reaching profitability.We believe the competitive landscape would likely intensify further. Legacy OEMs such as General Motors (GM), Ford (F), and Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY) have telegraphed ambitious plans to assume EV leadership by 2025/26. In addition, China's NEV leader BYD Company (OTCPK:BYDDY) has continued to penetrate the EV market further, consolidating its position as the global NEV leader (including hybrids) in Q3'22, ahead of Tesla (TSLA).Therefore, we urge investors to consider the business models and execution prowess of NIO and XPeng carefully as they take on profitable leading auto behemoths as they chart their path to profitability.We discuss why we continue to put our bet in NIO as a potential multi-bagger speculative opportunity ahead of XPEV.Maintain Speculative Buy on NIO and Hold on XPEV.Competition In China Has IntensifiedChina's economic malaise has battered its consumer discretionary spending, including automobiles. Yet, China's leading NEV makers have made robust progress in 2022.For instance, BYD delivered more than 230K of NEV in November, notching another monthly record, up nearly 153% YoY. Notably, BYD has continued to post consistent MoM gains since April 2022, corroborating the resilience of its highly vertically-integrated operating model.Moreover, Volkswagen has continued to invest heavily in its prized Chinese market. General Motors have also stepped up on its endeavor, looking to introduce 15 EV models for the Chinese market by 2025.Hence, we postulate that the competitive landscape in China could indicate that some unprofitable/less profitable upstarts could be squeezed out of the leading pack subsequently. With NIO and XPeng continuing to struggle for profitability, it's vital to assess which company could emerge as the stronger competitor to take on these behemoths.Furthermore, China's NEV subsidies are due to be eliminated by 2023, even though Chinese media reported that there could be some revisions. Notwithstanding, it could neutralize/lessen a constructive tailwind that has driven sales over the past few years.Therefore the market outlook remains uncertain while competition has intensified. As such, nothing short of excellent execution is required to navigate these challenges. And it's one that XPeng has fallen short in 2022.XPeng RestructuresXPeng Vehicle margins % (Company filings)Given XPeng's low vehicle margins operating model, it's imperative for the company to continue posting robust production and deliveries growth to benefit significantly from fixed costs leverage.However, XPeng's massive Q3 deliveries disappointment highlighted the execution weakness in a challenging macro and supply chain environment, in which leaders BYD and NIO performed admirably.With a vehicle margin of just 11.6% in Q3 (up from Q2's 9.1%), XPeng's profitability has improved QoQ.XPeng Deliveries (Company filings)However, the company posted deliveries growth of just 15% in FQ3; a massive downshift from FQ2's 98%. As such, we believe it triggered a rethinking of its strategies, leading the company to announce an organizational restructuring, as CEO He Xiaoping emphasized:Frankly, we're going through a very challenging period in pursuing our long-term goals. In response, we recently conducted an in-depth strategic review and implemented organizational restructure. As market competition intensifies, we'll sharpen our marketing to highlight the great value in our industry-leading smart and electrification technologies and further enhance our branding, sales, and service capabilities. (XPeng FQ3'22 earnings call)Hence, we believe there's little doubt that the increasingly competitive landscape hammered XPeng's execution. Therefore, moving forward, we think it's better to watch the action from the sidelines unless you have a very high conviction in XPeng's management.XPeng announced October and November deliveries of 5.1K and 5.81K, respectively. As such, the company needs to deliver about 9.59K of NEV (midpoint) in Q4, predicated on the ramp of its G9. XPeng emphasized: \"The Company expects that deliveries will significantly increase in December 2022 as G9's production ramp-up accelerates under normalized operating conditions.\"We believe that XPEV's battering toward its October lows has likely reflected significant pessimism. But, we don't think the recent rally is sustainable, as its price action suggests a massive covering rally.As such, we urge investors thinking of cutting exposure to leverage on the recent recovery to take some risks off the table and rotate.Rotate To NIONIO Deliveries (Company filings)NIO posted 14.18K in NEV deliveries for November, up nearly 41% MoM. As such, NIO demonstrated that its premium EV strategy is working well, despite China's economic malaise.While China's COVID restrictions have impacted its production cadence, we believe it could be less material moving forward as China progressively eases.Hence, NIO should be able to focus primarily on its execution as it looks to deliver its Q4 guidance of 45.5K NEVs (midpoint). The company appears confident in its recent deliveries outlook as NIO emphasized: \"NIO will further accelerate the production and delivery in December 2022.\"NIO CEO William Li also telegraphed recently why it's critical for NIO to remain deeply entrenched as one of China's leading NEV leaders, given intensifying competition. Li accentuated:If a company is squeezed into the second tier in the final round [of competition in 2024/25], it is basically impossible for it to catch up to the first tier if it wants to. You can only be a second-tier languishing, barely alive person. - CnEVPostTherefore, we believe it's no surprise that the timeline aligns well with the milestones indicated by the legacy OEMs makers as they transform into EV companies.Don't assume these OEM makers are \"dead\" yet, as they invest profits from their ICE segments to take on unprofitable EV makers. The battle is far from over, and we believe only the fittest EV makers could survive the increasingly competitive landscape.Is NIO Or XPEV Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?Maintain Speculative Buy on NIO and Hold on XPEV.XPEV price chart (weekly) (TradingView)The market had gotten XPEV spot on, knowing that it could face significant competitive pressures that could impact its operating model considerably.As such, the market's battering from its June highs has likely reflected its positioning. Hence, the recent sharp rally from its October lows resembled a covering move from bearish investors taking profit and cutting exposure.As such, we urge investors not to join this rally but consider taking the opportunity to take some risks off the table.NIO price chart (weekly) (TradingView)NIO's price action looks much more robust than XPEV, with no clear signs of a massive covering rally. Therefore, buyers are likely accumulating, trapping bearish investors at its long-term support and holding that defense line constructively.Hence, we believe the opportunity for a mean-reversion rally for NIO is still attractive at these levels. XPEV investors who decide to cut exposure can consider rotating some exposure to NIO to take them toward the next stage of the competition in China's increasingly competitive EV market.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":318,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965080182,"gmtCreate":1669856858846,"gmtModify":1676538257316,"author":{"id":"4107338879920220","authorId":"4107338879920220","name":"Hello hello","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/41d5870886727f937efd33a187c8e58e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4107338879920220","authorIdStr":"4107338879920220"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Song uh&nbsp;","listText":"Song uh&nbsp;","text":"Song uh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965080182","repostId":"1176439361","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":120,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9992202640,"gmtCreate":1661311988981,"gmtModify":1676536495525,"author":{"id":"4107338879920220","authorId":"4107338879920220","name":"Hello hello","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/41d5870886727f937efd33a187c8e58e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4107338879920220","authorIdStr":"4107338879920220"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up up&nbsp;","listText":"Up up&nbsp;","text":"Up up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9992202640","repostId":"2261653796","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":298,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9992024928,"gmtCreate":1661229072266,"gmtModify":1676536479663,"author":{"id":"4107338879920220","authorId":"4107338879920220","name":"Hello hello","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/41d5870886727f937efd33a187c8e58e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4107338879920220","authorIdStr":"4107338879920220"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gg","listText":"Gg","text":"Gg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9992024928","repostId":"1140002312","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140002312","pubTimestamp":1661227301,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140002312?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-23 12:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Must Face The Comeback Of Affordable ICE Vehicles","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140002312","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryTesla has grown its sales while traditional automakers have shrunk.The chip shortage has driven the average transaction price of a new car higher than the price of a Model 3.This is unsustainable and as production returns, prices will drop.Tesla will need to respond with lower prices to be price competitive, which will hurt profitability, or it could face demand or growth risks.What's happened?It's hardly a splurge in today's market.A Model 3 costs \"just\" 30% more than the cheapest Honda ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Tesla has grown its sales while traditional automakers have shrunk.</li><li>The chip shortage has driven the average transaction price of a new car higher than the price of a Model 3.</li><li>This is unsustainable and as production returns, prices will drop.</li><li>Tesla will need to respond with lower prices to be price competitive, which will hurt profitability, or it could face demand or growth risks.</li></ul><p><b>What&#39;s happened?</b></p><p>Other automakers&#39; misfortunes have been Tesla&#39;s (NASDAQ:TSLA) gain. While Tesla is commonly seen as a luxury vehicle, it is taking sales from not just all the luxury automakers, but all the mainstream categories as well. Tesla&#39;s flawless navigation through the supply chain means not only higher production for Tesla, but higher demand as other automakers struggle with very high starting prices that are mostly out of their control.</p><p>In addition to supply chain hurdles, traditional automakers have struggled with dealerships driving up prices well above MSRP via price markups and mandatory accessories. Manufacturers like Ford (F), which historically have good relations with dealerships, are now starting to show their frustration with dealers. To counter this (and to get a bigger piece of the pie themselves), manufacturers have focused on building higher priced configurations of their vehicles, but that hasn&#39;t stopped the strong consumer from driving up prices further.</p><p>For the shopper, this is a double whammy. With manufacturers prioritizing higher-priced variants and dealerships applying extreme markups to those units, in July the average retail price for a new car rose to an all-time high of $48,142 and the average monthly payment is now $733. In fact, the average retail price is now higher than the starting price of a Model 3, even after a $10,000 price increase over the last year. In today&#39;s market, an entry-level Tesla is no longer a luxury vehicle.</p><p>My local dealership here in Southern California sells a top-of-the-line Honda Accord Touring for nearly the same price as a Standard Range Model 3 and according to the salesman, they&#39;ve been selling every one that they get. With mainstream vehicles having luxury prices, it&#39;s no wonder Tesla is taking sales from the mainstream segment.</p><p>While we may never see inventory levels like we did prior to the pandemic that allowed incentives and dealer discounts to bring prices well below MSRP, I believe buying a car at MSRP will eventually happen. This will give shoppers the much-needed choice they need.</p><p><b>Tesla: Now a luxury within reach</b></p><p>So how does the price of a Model 3 today compare with an Accord versus Honda&#39;s intention, and versus prices from a few years ago? It&#39;s hardly a splurge in today&#39;s market.</p><p>A Model 3 costs &#34;just&#34; 30% more than the cheapest Honda Accord I can find, a Sport trim priced at $35,975 including markups, and the salesman assured me that they sell every one they get without discount. That&#39;s a model that doesn&#39;t even have heated cloth seats; leather would cost an additional $1500 and at that point a Model 3 would be just 25% more for a huge upgrade in terms of brand and features.</p><p>Obviously, this is due to inflated prices and was never the intention. If a buyer could pick up an Accord LX (the cheapest trim) for an MSRP of $26,520 without those pesky markups, the cost of a Standard Range Model 3 would be more than 80% higher. You can argue that a Model 3 is worth the higher price tag but the problem is that with so few options today, a Tesla is far more appealing today than it was a few years ago (especially with fuel and maintenance savings). It&#39;s easy to see why Tesla is taking so many sales from the mainstream segment. In fact, according to Tom Libby from S&amp;P Mobility, about half of Model 3 and Y buyers have a mainstream product in their garage, which he finds extraordinary.</p><p>Even if we consider 2019 prices when a Model 3 was just $37,000, it was still more than 50% higher than the MSRP of an Accord LX at the time, and that&#39;s excluding past dealer discounts and manufacturer incentives that could drive the price thousands below MSRP.</p><p>With higher prices thanks to supply chain woes, Tesla has been able to bring in record profitability. Unfortunately, there are signs that these conditions are starting to fade.</p><p><b>The market is shifting</b></p><p>It&#39;s important to note that the strong consumer has been incredibly helpful in driving prices through the roof, but there are signs that the consumer&#39;s spending habits are changing.</p><p>Over the past few months, when it comes to the new car market, buyers just haven&#39;t had a choice. <i>Someone</i> is going to buy that overpriced car on the lot, however foolish it may be. Thankfully, the used car market is showing signs of stability, and since more than 40 million used cars were sold in the US last year (22 million via retailers), a look at this segment is a good indicator of car shopping behavior when provided a choice.</p><p>If you&#39;re unfamiliar, here&#39;s an example of how prices have been in the used market. In Southern California, a certified pre-owned 2021 Civic LX (base model) with 28,000 miles has a retail price of $28,655, which is 35% higher than its original MSRP of $21,250.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7863b77894ec6738305b9e12cf9dc2fd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>ochondaworld.com</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ceceac50604deafb86b1d96ec132873\" tg-width=\"498\" tg-height=\"862\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Autonews.com</p><p>Last quarter, used vehicle profitability plunged. AutoNation&#39;s (AN) used vehicle gross profit declined by 22% from the prior quarter and 14% from last year, while Group 1 (GPI) saw profits dive 25%. Online used car retailers are also seeing profits plunge, with Carvana (CVNA) posting a loss of more than a billion dollars thanks to a 44% decline in gross profits from last year. See the chart to the right for more.</p><p>The majority of CEOs from major public car retailers discuss the consumer&#39;s reluctance to pay big premiums for vehicles as they were previously. Penske (PAG) CEO said that higher prices are &#34;taking some people out of the market&#34;. Group 1 Automotive&#39;s CEO stated that demand is shifting to lower price points. Asbury Automotive Group CEO David Hult said that consumers were &#34;impulsively buying&#34; six months ago but are now more cautious. According to Cox Automotive, used car prices are trending down and should be a source of deflation in the months ahead.</p><p>In other words, the buying frenzy for overpriced used vehicles is over and it&#39;s reasonable to believe that this will translate into the new car market as soon as production stabilizes.</p><p><b>Signs of New Car Production Rebound</b></p><p>Nobody is yet sure when new car production will fully rebound, or even recover to levels where shoppers can buy cars without massive markups, however there is some promising signs starting to surface.</p><p>In June, UK car production was back on the rise, up 5.6% from the year earlier thanks to an ease in some supply chain issues. According to LMCAutomotive, the Global Light Vehicle selling rate rose for the third consecutive month to 90 million units/year in July, which it noted as the best performance for the year so far thanks to a rebound in China and South America. US sales remain down, but the sales decline by 11.6% was the smallest decline since January. Finally, according to AutoForecast Solutions, automakers lost just 6,800 vehicles in weekly production due to the chip shortage and that was one of the smallest losses since the chip shortage began in early 2021.</p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p>For the better part of the last year, Tesla&#39;s applaudable performance despite supply chain woes has come with great benefit. For starters, shoppers of ICE vehicles have faced extreme price pressure due to automakers prioritizing well-equipped variants of their vehicles and dealerships adding steep markups to these already high-priced cars.</p><p>However, there are signs of a weakening consumer. In the used market, consumers are (thankfully) showing signs of reluctance when faced with the purchase of a used base model Civic for nearly 30 grand. Auto retailers are making it clear that the buying frenzy is over. In addition, there&#39;s a glimmer of hope that production is starting to ease. We still need more data, but it&#39;s reasonable to believe that the supply chain will ease eventually.</p><p>When that time comes, Tesla will be facing lower mainstream vehicle prices and will likely find it more difficult to bite into these high-volume segments so easily. Of course, Tesla would also benefit from any supply chain easing, but at the expensive of what&#39;s been a driver of the stock&#39;s recent run up: high gross margins and profitability in addition to growth. Initially, there was a selloff after its most recent earnings report, with the red flag being margin contraction. Further margin contraction due to pricing pressure may not be taken lightly by investors, especially if it were perceived as an indicator of reduced demand.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Must Face The Comeback Of Affordable ICE Vehicles</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Must Face The Comeback Of Affordable ICE Vehicles\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-23 12:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4536057-tesla-faces-comeback-of-affordable-ice-vehicles?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A20><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryTesla has grown its sales while traditional automakers have shrunk.The chip shortage has driven the average transaction price of a new car higher than the price of a Model 3.This is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4536057-tesla-faces-comeback-of-affordable-ice-vehicles?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A20\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4536057-tesla-faces-comeback-of-affordable-ice-vehicles?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A20","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140002312","content_text":"SummaryTesla has grown its sales while traditional automakers have shrunk.The chip shortage has driven the average transaction price of a new car higher than the price of a Model 3.This is unsustainable and as production returns, prices will drop.Tesla will need to respond with lower prices to be price competitive, which will hurt profitability, or it could face demand or growth risks.What's happened?Other automakers' misfortunes have been Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) gain. While Tesla is commonly seen as a luxury vehicle, it is taking sales from not just all the luxury automakers, but all the mainstream categories as well. Tesla's flawless navigation through the supply chain means not only higher production for Tesla, but higher demand as other automakers struggle with very high starting prices that are mostly out of their control.In addition to supply chain hurdles, traditional automakers have struggled with dealerships driving up prices well above MSRP via price markups and mandatory accessories. Manufacturers like Ford (F), which historically have good relations with dealerships, are now starting to show their frustration with dealers. To counter this (and to get a bigger piece of the pie themselves), manufacturers have focused on building higher priced configurations of their vehicles, but that hasn't stopped the strong consumer from driving up prices further.For the shopper, this is a double whammy. With manufacturers prioritizing higher-priced variants and dealerships applying extreme markups to those units, in July the average retail price for a new car rose to an all-time high of $48,142 and the average monthly payment is now $733. In fact, the average retail price is now higher than the starting price of a Model 3, even after a $10,000 price increase over the last year. In today's market, an entry-level Tesla is no longer a luxury vehicle.My local dealership here in Southern California sells a top-of-the-line Honda Accord Touring for nearly the same price as a Standard Range Model 3 and according to the salesman, they've been selling every one that they get. With mainstream vehicles having luxury prices, it's no wonder Tesla is taking sales from the mainstream segment.While we may never see inventory levels like we did prior to the pandemic that allowed incentives and dealer discounts to bring prices well below MSRP, I believe buying a car at MSRP will eventually happen. This will give shoppers the much-needed choice they need.Tesla: Now a luxury within reachSo how does the price of a Model 3 today compare with an Accord versus Honda's intention, and versus prices from a few years ago? It's hardly a splurge in today's market.A Model 3 costs \"just\" 30% more than the cheapest Honda Accord I can find, a Sport trim priced at $35,975 including markups, and the salesman assured me that they sell every one they get without discount. That's a model that doesn't even have heated cloth seats; leather would cost an additional $1500 and at that point a Model 3 would be just 25% more for a huge upgrade in terms of brand and features.Obviously, this is due to inflated prices and was never the intention. If a buyer could pick up an Accord LX (the cheapest trim) for an MSRP of $26,520 without those pesky markups, the cost of a Standard Range Model 3 would be more than 80% higher. You can argue that a Model 3 is worth the higher price tag but the problem is that with so few options today, a Tesla is far more appealing today than it was a few years ago (especially with fuel and maintenance savings). It's easy to see why Tesla is taking so many sales from the mainstream segment. In fact, according to Tom Libby from S&P Mobility, about half of Model 3 and Y buyers have a mainstream product in their garage, which he finds extraordinary.Even if we consider 2019 prices when a Model 3 was just $37,000, it was still more than 50% higher than the MSRP of an Accord LX at the time, and that's excluding past dealer discounts and manufacturer incentives that could drive the price thousands below MSRP.With higher prices thanks to supply chain woes, Tesla has been able to bring in record profitability. Unfortunately, there are signs that these conditions are starting to fade.The market is shiftingIt's important to note that the strong consumer has been incredibly helpful in driving prices through the roof, but there are signs that the consumer's spending habits are changing.Over the past few months, when it comes to the new car market, buyers just haven't had a choice. Someone is going to buy that overpriced car on the lot, however foolish it may be. Thankfully, the used car market is showing signs of stability, and since more than 40 million used cars were sold in the US last year (22 million via retailers), a look at this segment is a good indicator of car shopping behavior when provided a choice.If you're unfamiliar, here's an example of how prices have been in the used market. In Southern California, a certified pre-owned 2021 Civic LX (base model) with 28,000 miles has a retail price of $28,655, which is 35% higher than its original MSRP of $21,250.ochondaworld.comAutonews.comLast quarter, used vehicle profitability plunged. AutoNation's (AN) used vehicle gross profit declined by 22% from the prior quarter and 14% from last year, while Group 1 (GPI) saw profits dive 25%. Online used car retailers are also seeing profits plunge, with Carvana (CVNA) posting a loss of more than a billion dollars thanks to a 44% decline in gross profits from last year. See the chart to the right for more.The majority of CEOs from major public car retailers discuss the consumer's reluctance to pay big premiums for vehicles as they were previously. Penske (PAG) CEO said that higher prices are \"taking some people out of the market\". Group 1 Automotive's CEO stated that demand is shifting to lower price points. Asbury Automotive Group CEO David Hult said that consumers were \"impulsively buying\" six months ago but are now more cautious. According to Cox Automotive, used car prices are trending down and should be a source of deflation in the months ahead.In other words, the buying frenzy for overpriced used vehicles is over and it's reasonable to believe that this will translate into the new car market as soon as production stabilizes.Signs of New Car Production ReboundNobody is yet sure when new car production will fully rebound, or even recover to levels where shoppers can buy cars without massive markups, however there is some promising signs starting to surface.In June, UK car production was back on the rise, up 5.6% from the year earlier thanks to an ease in some supply chain issues. According to LMCAutomotive, the Global Light Vehicle selling rate rose for the third consecutive month to 90 million units/year in July, which it noted as the best performance for the year so far thanks to a rebound in China and South America. US sales remain down, but the sales decline by 11.6% was the smallest decline since January. Finally, according to AutoForecast Solutions, automakers lost just 6,800 vehicles in weekly production due to the chip shortage and that was one of the smallest losses since the chip shortage began in early 2021.ConclusionFor the better part of the last year, Tesla's applaudable performance despite supply chain woes has come with great benefit. For starters, shoppers of ICE vehicles have faced extreme price pressure due to automakers prioritizing well-equipped variants of their vehicles and dealerships adding steep markups to these already high-priced cars.However, there are signs of a weakening consumer. In the used market, consumers are (thankfully) showing signs of reluctance when faced with the purchase of a used base model Civic for nearly 30 grand. Auto retailers are making it clear that the buying frenzy is over. In addition, there's a glimmer of hope that production is starting to ease. We still need more data, but it's reasonable to believe that the supply chain will ease eventually.When that time comes, Tesla will be facing lower mainstream vehicle prices and will likely find it more difficult to bite into these high-volume segments so easily. Of course, Tesla would also benefit from any supply chain easing, but at the expensive of what's been a driver of the stock's recent run up: high gross margins and profitability in addition to growth. Initially, there was a selloff after its most recent earnings report, with the red flag being margin contraction. 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