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2023-10-23
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2022-12-11
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Why Stock-Market Investors Shouldn’t Count on a "Santa Claus" Rally This Year
‘The Santa Claus rally is canceled this year,’ says economistU.S. stocks tend to rally in the final
Why Stock-Market Investors Shouldn’t Count on a "Santa Claus" Rally This Year
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2022-11-08
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2022-11-02
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Fed to Hike Big Again and Open Door to Downshift
Chair Powell faces a communications challenge at briefingFed may slow soon, but doesn’t want easy fi
Fed to Hike Big Again and Open Door to Downshift
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2022-10-18
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2022-10-10
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Pfizer Exec Says CEO Did Not Negotiate EU COVID Vaccine Contract Via Text Message
A Pfizer executive with a lead role in negotiating a COVID-19 vaccine bulk supply agreement with the
Pfizer Exec Says CEO Did Not Negotiate EU COVID Vaccine Contract Via Text Message
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2022-10-10
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Pfizer Exec Says CEO Did Not Negotiate EU COVID Vaccine Contract Via Text Message
A Pfizer executive with a lead role in negotiating a COVID-19 vaccine bulk supply agreement with the
Pfizer Exec Says CEO Did Not Negotiate EU COVID Vaccine Contract Via Text Message
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2022-10-10
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The 2022 Bear Market Cycle May Be Far From Over
SummaryThe bear markets of 1937, 2000, and 2008 suggest a short-term bottom may be found in October.
The 2022 Bear Market Cycle May Be Far From Over
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2022-10-06
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2022-10-06
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， ","listText":". ， ","text":". ，","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/233522273873920","repostId":"2373539973","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2365,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9923069424,"gmtCreate":1670757945868,"gmtModify":1676538428702,"author":{"id":"4111108214816132","authorId":"4111108214816132","name":"Lum52","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111108214816132","authorIdStr":"4111108214816132"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Y//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3565819252889467\">@e13v3n</a>: k","listText":"Y//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3565819252889467\">@e13v3n</a>: k","text":"Y//@e13v3n: k","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9923069424","repostId":"2290213223","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2290213223","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1670723606,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2290213223?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-11 09:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Stock-Market Investors Shouldn’t Count on a \"Santa Claus\" Rally This Year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2290213223","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"‘The Santa Claus rally is canceled this year,’ says economistU.S. stocks tend to rally in the final ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>‘The Santa Claus rally is canceled this year,’ says economist</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0a959345916d49ecfb90abc84cc5b97\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>U.S. stocks tend to rally in the final week of December, and carry the upswing into early January. But a holiday bounce this year likely hinges on next week’s Federal Reserve rate decision and fresh inflation data.</span></p><p>Investors, like kids on Christmas Eve, have come to expect Santa Claus will get down the chimney, march over to Wall Street and deliver the rewarding gift of a stock-market rally.</p><p>This year, however, investors might be better off betting on a lump of coal, rather than waiting for tangible stock-market gains to emerge in this holiday season, market analysts said.</p><p>“The Santa Claus rally is canceled this year as the equity market navigates higher yields and contracting earnings,” said José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers. “Seasonal tailwinds that have traditionally driven Santa Claus rallies pale in comparison to the plethora of headwinds the equity market currently faces.”</p><p>U.S. stock indexes tumbled this week, with the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average both booking their sharpest weekly declines in nearly three months, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The drop occurred as stronger-than-expected economic data added to concerns that the Federal Reserve might need to be more aggressive in its inflation battle than earlier anticipated, even with alarms flashing about a potential economic recession.</p><p>Santa Claus tends to come to Wall Street almost every year, bringing a short rally in the last five trading days of December, and the first two days of January. Since 1969, the Santa Rally has boosted the S&P 500 by an average of 1.3%, according to data from Stock Trader’s Almanac.</p><p>“December is the seasonally strongest month of the year, particularly in a midterm election year. So, December has been positive most of the time,” said David Keller, chief market strategist at StockCharts.com. “It would actually be very unusual for stocks to sell off dramatically in December.”</p><p><b>Will Wall Street get a Santa Claus Rally?</b></p><p>A rotten year for financial assets has begun drawing to a close under a cloud of uncertainty. Given the Federal Reserve’s tough stance on bringing inflation down to its 2% target and already volatile financial markets, many analysts think investors shouldn’t focus too much on whether Santa Claus ends up being naughty or nice.</p><p>“Next week is going to be a huge week for the markets as they attempt to find some footing heading into year end,” said Cliff Hodge, chief investment officer at Cornerstone Wealth, in emailed comments Friday.</p><p>That makes the Fed’s rate decisions next week and fresh inflation data even more crucial to equity markets. Friday’s wholesale prices rose more than expected in November, dampening hopes that inflation might be cooling off. The core producer-price index, which excludes volatile food, energy and trade prices, also rose 0.3% in November, up from a 0.2% gain in the prior month, the Labor Department said.</p><p>The corresponding November consumer-price index report, due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Tuesday, will further show if inflation is subsiding.The CPI increased 0.4% in October and 7.7% from a year ago. The core reading increased 0.3% for the month and 6.3% on an annual basis.</p><p>“If the CPI print comes in at 5% on core, then you’d get a real selloff in bonds and in equities. If inflation is still running hotter and you have a recession, can the Fed cut rates? Maybe not. Then you start getting into the stagflation scenarios,” said Ron Temple, head of U.S. equities at Lazard Asset Management.</p><p>Traders are pricing in a 77% probability that the Fed will raise its policy interest rate by 50 basis points to a range of 4.25% to 4.50% next Wednesday, the last day of its Dec. 13-14 meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.That would be a slower pace than its four consecutive 0.75 point rate hikes since June.</p><p>John Porter, chief investment officer and head of equity at Newton Investment Management, expects no surprises next week in terms of how much the Fed will raise interest rates. He does, however, anticipate stock-market investors will closely watch Fed Chair Powell’s press conference for insights into the decision and “hang on every single word.”</p><p>“Investors are contorting themselves almost into a pretzel and trying to over-interpret the language,” Porter told MarketWatch via phone. “Listen to what they say, not listen to what you want them to say. They [Fed officials] are going to continue to be vigilant, and they have to watch inflation.”</p><p><b>Does the ‘Santa’ rally really exist?</b></p><p>For years, market analysts have examined potential reasons for the typical seasonal Santa Claus pattern. But with this year still awash in red, some think a rally in late December could become a self-fulfilling prophecy, simply because investors might search for any reason to be slightly merry.</p><p>“If everyone’s focused on the positive seasonals, it could become more of this narrative that drives things rather than anything more fundamental,” David Lefkowitz, head of equities Americas of UBS Global Wealth Management, told MarketWatch via phone.</p><p>“Markets tend to like the holly-jolly spending season so much, so there’s a name for the rally that tends to happen at the end of the year,” said Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi. “For what it’s worth, I think ‘Santa Claus Rally’ holds as much predictive power as ‘Sell in May and Walk Away,’ which is minimal and coincidental at best.”</p><p><b>Relief rally’s big tests</b></p><p>While the three main U.S. stock indexes booked sharply weekly losses, equities have rallied off the October lows. The S&P 500 has rallied 9.9% from its October low through Friday, while the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.90%gained 16.5% and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 6.6%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p>However, many top Wall Street analysts also see reasons for alarm, specifically that the stock market’s bounce off the recent lows is likely running out of room.</p><p>So, are investors ignoring warnings? Despite talk of the seeming inevitability of a year-end rally, several recent rally attempts failed, while Wall Street’s CBOE Volatility Index, or “fear gauge,” was at 22.86 at Friday’s close. A drop below 20 on the VIX can signify that investor fears about potential market ructions are easing.</p><p>U.S. stock indexes closed down on Friday with the S&P 500 losing 0.7%. The Dow dropped 0.9%, and the Nasdaq shed 0.7%. Three major indexes booked a week of sizable losses with the S&P 500 posting a weekly decline of 3.4%. The Dow declined by 2.8% and the Nasdaq Composite was down nearly 4% this week, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p>Next week, not long after the CPI and the Fed decision, investors will also receive November retail sales data and industrial production index on Thursday, followed by the S&P Global’s flash PMI readings on Friday.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Stock-Market Investors Shouldn’t Count on a \"Santa Claus\" Rally This Year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Stock-Market Investors Shouldn’t Count on a \"Santa Claus\" Rally This Year\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-11 09:53 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-stock-market-investors-shouldnt-count-on-a-santa-claus-rally-this-year-11670628375?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>‘The Santa Claus rally is canceled this year,’ says economistU.S. stocks tend to rally in the final week of December, and carry the upswing into early January. But a holiday bounce this year likely ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-stock-market-investors-shouldnt-count-on-a-santa-claus-rally-this-year-11670628375?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-stock-market-investors-shouldnt-count-on-a-santa-claus-rally-this-year-11670628375?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2290213223","content_text":"‘The Santa Claus rally is canceled this year,’ says economistU.S. stocks tend to rally in the final week of December, and carry the upswing into early January. But a holiday bounce this year likely hinges on next week’s Federal Reserve rate decision and fresh inflation data.Investors, like kids on Christmas Eve, have come to expect Santa Claus will get down the chimney, march over to Wall Street and deliver the rewarding gift of a stock-market rally.This year, however, investors might be better off betting on a lump of coal, rather than waiting for tangible stock-market gains to emerge in this holiday season, market analysts said.“The Santa Claus rally is canceled this year as the equity market navigates higher yields and contracting earnings,” said José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers. “Seasonal tailwinds that have traditionally driven Santa Claus rallies pale in comparison to the plethora of headwinds the equity market currently faces.”U.S. stock indexes tumbled this week, with the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average both booking their sharpest weekly declines in nearly three months, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The drop occurred as stronger-than-expected economic data added to concerns that the Federal Reserve might need to be more aggressive in its inflation battle than earlier anticipated, even with alarms flashing about a potential economic recession.Santa Claus tends to come to Wall Street almost every year, bringing a short rally in the last five trading days of December, and the first two days of January. Since 1969, the Santa Rally has boosted the S&P 500 by an average of 1.3%, according to data from Stock Trader’s Almanac.“December is the seasonally strongest month of the year, particularly in a midterm election year. So, December has been positive most of the time,” said David Keller, chief market strategist at StockCharts.com. “It would actually be very unusual for stocks to sell off dramatically in December.”Will Wall Street get a Santa Claus Rally?A rotten year for financial assets has begun drawing to a close under a cloud of uncertainty. Given the Federal Reserve’s tough stance on bringing inflation down to its 2% target and already volatile financial markets, many analysts think investors shouldn’t focus too much on whether Santa Claus ends up being naughty or nice.“Next week is going to be a huge week for the markets as they attempt to find some footing heading into year end,” said Cliff Hodge, chief investment officer at Cornerstone Wealth, in emailed comments Friday.That makes the Fed’s rate decisions next week and fresh inflation data even more crucial to equity markets. Friday’s wholesale prices rose more than expected in November, dampening hopes that inflation might be cooling off. The core producer-price index, which excludes volatile food, energy and trade prices, also rose 0.3% in November, up from a 0.2% gain in the prior month, the Labor Department said.The corresponding November consumer-price index report, due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Tuesday, will further show if inflation is subsiding.The CPI increased 0.4% in October and 7.7% from a year ago. The core reading increased 0.3% for the month and 6.3% on an annual basis.“If the CPI print comes in at 5% on core, then you’d get a real selloff in bonds and in equities. If inflation is still running hotter and you have a recession, can the Fed cut rates? Maybe not. Then you start getting into the stagflation scenarios,” said Ron Temple, head of U.S. equities at Lazard Asset Management.Traders are pricing in a 77% probability that the Fed will raise its policy interest rate by 50 basis points to a range of 4.25% to 4.50% next Wednesday, the last day of its Dec. 13-14 meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.That would be a slower pace than its four consecutive 0.75 point rate hikes since June.John Porter, chief investment officer and head of equity at Newton Investment Management, expects no surprises next week in terms of how much the Fed will raise interest rates. He does, however, anticipate stock-market investors will closely watch Fed Chair Powell’s press conference for insights into the decision and “hang on every single word.”“Investors are contorting themselves almost into a pretzel and trying to over-interpret the language,” Porter told MarketWatch via phone. “Listen to what they say, not listen to what you want them to say. They [Fed officials] are going to continue to be vigilant, and they have to watch inflation.”Does the ‘Santa’ rally really exist?For years, market analysts have examined potential reasons for the typical seasonal Santa Claus pattern. But with this year still awash in red, some think a rally in late December could become a self-fulfilling prophecy, simply because investors might search for any reason to be slightly merry.“If everyone’s focused on the positive seasonals, it could become more of this narrative that drives things rather than anything more fundamental,” David Lefkowitz, head of equities Americas of UBS Global Wealth Management, told MarketWatch via phone.“Markets tend to like the holly-jolly spending season so much, so there’s a name for the rally that tends to happen at the end of the year,” said Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi. “For what it’s worth, I think ‘Santa Claus Rally’ holds as much predictive power as ‘Sell in May and Walk Away,’ which is minimal and coincidental at best.”Relief rally’s big testsWhile the three main U.S. stock indexes booked sharply weekly losses, equities have rallied off the October lows. The S&P 500 has rallied 9.9% from its October low through Friday, while the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.90%gained 16.5% and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 6.6%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.However, many top Wall Street analysts also see reasons for alarm, specifically that the stock market’s bounce off the recent lows is likely running out of room.So, are investors ignoring warnings? Despite talk of the seeming inevitability of a year-end rally, several recent rally attempts failed, while Wall Street’s CBOE Volatility Index, or “fear gauge,” was at 22.86 at Friday’s close. A drop below 20 on the VIX can signify that investor fears about potential market ructions are easing.U.S. stock indexes closed down on Friday with the S&P 500 losing 0.7%. The Dow dropped 0.9%, and the Nasdaq shed 0.7%. Three major indexes booked a week of sizable losses with the S&P 500 posting a weekly decline of 3.4%. The Dow declined by 2.8% and the Nasdaq Composite was down nearly 4% this week, according to Dow Jones Market Data.Next week, not long after the CPI and the Fed decision, investors will also receive November retail sales data and industrial production index on Thursday, followed by the S&P Global’s flash PMI readings on Friday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.6,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2290,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9987212460,"gmtCreate":1667918618351,"gmtModify":1676537984494,"author":{"id":"4111108214816132","authorId":"4111108214816132","name":"Lum52","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111108214816132","authorIdStr":"4111108214816132"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9987212460","repostId":"1147745884","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2074,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9985236302,"gmtCreate":1667397088606,"gmtModify":1676537910943,"author":{"id":"4111108214816132","authorId":"4111108214816132","name":"Lum52","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111108214816132","authorIdStr":"4111108214816132"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9985236302","repostId":"1112792321","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112792321","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1667381375,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1112792321?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-02 17:29","market":"nz","language":"en","title":"Fed to Hike Big Again and Open Door to Downshift","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112792321","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Chair Powell faces a communications challenge at briefingFed may slow soon, but doesn’t want easy fi","content":"<div>\n<p>Chair Powell faces a communications challenge at briefingFed may slow soon, but doesn’t want easy financial conditionsThe Federal Reserve looks set to deliver a fourth straight super-sized rate ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-02/fed-to-hike-big-again-and-open-door-to-downshift-decision-guide\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed to Hike Big Again and Open Door to Downshift</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed to Hike Big Again and Open Door to Downshift\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-02 17:29 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-02/fed-to-hike-big-again-and-open-door-to-downshift-decision-guide><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Chair Powell faces a communications challenge at briefingFed may slow soon, but doesn’t want easy financial conditionsThe Federal Reserve looks set to deliver a fourth straight super-sized rate ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-02/fed-to-hike-big-again-and-open-door-to-downshift-decision-guide\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-02/fed-to-hike-big-again-and-open-door-to-downshift-decision-guide","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112792321","content_text":"Chair Powell faces a communications challenge at briefingFed may slow soon, but doesn’t want easy financial conditionsThe Federal Reserve looks set to deliver a fourth straight super-sized rate increase with Chair Jerome Powell repeating his resolute message on inflation and opening the door to a downshift -- without necessarily pivoting yet.The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to raise rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday to a range of 3.75 to 4%, the highest level since 2008 as the central bank extends its most aggressive tightening campaign since the 1980s.The decision will be announced at 2 p.m. in Washington and Powell will hold a press conference 30 minutes later. No fresh Fed forecasts are released at this meeting.The central bank chief may emphasize policymakers remain steadfast in their inflation fight, while leaving options open for their gathering in mid-December, when markets are split between another big move or a shift to 50 basis points.In July, his comments were wrongly interpreted by investors as a near-term policy pivot, with markets rallying in response, which eased financial conditions -- making it harder for the Fed to curb prices. The chair may want to avoid a misstep, even if he suggests a shift to smaller increases at upcoming meetings.“They may want to go slower just in the interest of financial stability,” said Julia Coronado, the founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC. “It’s a challenge for messaging because they don’t want to ease financial conditions significantly. They need tight financial conditions to keep cooling the economy off. So he doesn’t want to sound dovish, but he may want to go slower.”Powell is trying to curb the hottest inflation in 40 years amid criticism he was slow to respond to rising prices last year. The hikes have roiled financial markets as investors worry the Fed could trigger a recession.What Bloomberg Economics Says...“Less certain than today’s rate-hike is how Fed Chair Powell will communicate a potential future downshift in the rate-hike pace -- the degree of conviction, the risks around hike sizing, and implications for the terminal rate. We expect that he will present a 50-basis-point move as the base case and clarify that a downshift in the pace of rate hikes does not necessarily mean a lower terminal rate.” -- Anna Wong, Andrew Husby and Eliza Winger (economists)Wednesday’s expected move comes less than a week before midterm elections in the US, where Republicans have made high inflation a top issue and tried to pin blame on President Joe Biden and his party in Congress. Last week, two Democratic senators urged Powell to not cause unnecessary pain by raising rates too high.RatesEconomists overwhelmingly predict the FOMC will raise 75 basis points, though one is looking for a step down to 50 basis points instead. Investors are close to fully pricing in 75 basis points at this Fed meeting, according to interest-rate futures markets.The Bank of Canada unexpectedly slowed its pace of interest-rate hikes to a half point last week, though economists noted Canada’s higher share of adjustable-rate mortgages magnify the macroeconomic impact of the central bank’s rate increases.FOMC StatementThe statement is likely to retain its pledge of “ongoing increases” in interest rates, but that could be “modestly tweaked in some way to indicate that you’re closer to the end” of hikes, said Michael Feroli, chief US economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. One option would be to say “some further increases,” he said.Press ConferencePowell since July has said it will be necessary to slow the pace of hikes at some point, and he’s likely to reiterate that, while leaving options open in December depending on incoming data. There will be two employment reports and two consumer-price reports before the Dec. 13-14 meeting.“Markets want some indication that the Fed’s going to downshift,” said Drew Matus, chief market strategist with MetLife Investment Management. “This whole point of downshifting and moving to a slower pace of hikes is because you don’t know how much you have to do. So if it’s raining outside and I am driving, I am slowing down.”DissentsAbout a third of economists expect a dissent at the meeting. The most likely candidates would be Kansas City Fed President Esther George, who dissented in June in favor of a smaller hike, and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who dissented in March as a hawk.Balance SheetThe Fed is likely to reiterate its plans to shrink its massive balance sheet at a pace of $1.1 trillion a year. Economists project that will bring the balance sheet to $8.5 trillion by year end, dropping to $6.7 trillion in December 2024.No announcement is expected on sales of mortgage-backed securities.Financial StabilityA report on financial stability is likely to be presented during the meeting, according to Nomura’s economists, and Powell may be asked whether the pace of hikes and potentially a US recession could cause international spillovers or disruptions in US credit markets. Three-month Treasury yields topped the 10-year yield last week, a so-called inversion that is often seen as a signal of a recession.“We are not conditioned in the US to be dealing with a 4.5% federal funds rate,” said Troy Ludtka, senior US economist at Natixis North America LLC, and there are concerns credit markets could be disrupted. “Internationally is even scarier. Europe looks terrible. China is not in recession, but I think it’s their slowest growth in a long, long time.”Ethics QuestionsPowell also could be asked about the latest incidents to raise questions about ethics standards at the central bank.Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic recently revealed he violated central bank policy on financial transactions, leading Powell to ask the Fed’s inspector general to review his financial disclosures.In a separate incident, Bullard last month attended a Citigroup-hosted meeting in Washington to which media were not invited and at which he discussed monetary policy. The St. Louis Fed has since said it would think differently about accepting such invitations in the future.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":1,"SGXZ80611742":1,".SPX":1,".IXIC":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3447,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9989790187,"gmtCreate":1666075570450,"gmtModify":1676537702053,"author":{"id":"4111108214816132","authorId":"4111108214816132","name":"Lum52","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111108214816132","authorIdStr":"4111108214816132"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9989790187","repostId":"1148534626","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2104,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9917984903,"gmtCreate":1665412341702,"gmtModify":1676537601960,"author":{"id":"4111108214816132","authorId":"4111108214816132","name":"Lum52","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111108214816132","authorIdStr":"4111108214816132"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9917984903","repostId":"2274956645","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2274956645","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1665410604,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2274956645?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-10 22:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Pfizer Exec Says CEO Did Not Negotiate EU COVID Vaccine Contract Via Text Message","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2274956645","media":"Reuters","summary":"A Pfizer executive with a lead role in negotiating a COVID-19 vaccine bulk supply agreement with the","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>A Pfizer executive with a lead role in negotiating a COVID-19 vaccine bulk supply agreement with the European Commission said she "categorically" rules out that the U.S. drugmaker's chief executive agreed the contract via mobile phone text messages.</p><p>"As to whether a contract negotiation such as this contract which you referred to, 1.8 billion doses, was negotiated through an SMS, I can categorically tell you that would not be the case," Janine Small, president of international developed markets at Pfizer, told the European Parliament's special committee on COVID-19 on Monday.</p><p>She added that such talks involve far too many people on both sides and take far too long to be conducted via mobile phone texts.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pfizer Exec Says CEO Did Not Negotiate EU COVID Vaccine Contract Via Text Message</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPfizer Exec Says CEO Did Not Negotiate EU COVID Vaccine Contract Via Text Message\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-10-10 22:03</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>A Pfizer executive with a lead role in negotiating a COVID-19 vaccine bulk supply agreement with the European Commission said she "categorically" rules out that the U.S. drugmaker's chief executive agreed the contract via mobile phone text messages.</p><p>"As to whether a contract negotiation such as this contract which you referred to, 1.8 billion doses, was negotiated through an SMS, I can categorically tell you that would not be the case," Janine Small, president of international developed markets at Pfizer, told the European Parliament's special committee on COVID-19 on Monday.</p><p>She added that such talks involve far too many people on both sides and take far too long to be conducted via mobile phone texts.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PFE":"辉瑞"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2274956645","content_text":"A Pfizer executive with a lead role in negotiating a COVID-19 vaccine bulk supply agreement with the European Commission said she \"categorically\" rules out that the U.S. drugmaker's chief executive agreed the contract via mobile phone text messages.\"As to whether a contract negotiation such as this contract which you referred to, 1.8 billion doses, was negotiated through an SMS, I can categorically tell you that would not be the case,\" Janine Small, president of international developed markets at Pfizer, told the European Parliament's special committee on COVID-19 on Monday.She added that such talks involve far too many people on both sides and take far too long to be conducted via mobile phone texts.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PFE":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2433,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9917984011,"gmtCreate":1665412333733,"gmtModify":1676537601960,"author":{"id":"4111108214816132","authorId":"4111108214816132","name":"Lum52","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111108214816132","authorIdStr":"4111108214816132"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9917984011","repostId":"2274956645","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2274956645","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1665410604,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2274956645?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-10 22:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Pfizer Exec Says CEO Did Not Negotiate EU COVID Vaccine Contract Via Text Message","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2274956645","media":"Reuters","summary":"A Pfizer executive with a lead role in negotiating a COVID-19 vaccine bulk supply agreement with the","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>A Pfizer executive with a lead role in negotiating a COVID-19 vaccine bulk supply agreement with the European Commission said she "categorically" rules out that the U.S. drugmaker's chief executive agreed the contract via mobile phone text messages.</p><p>"As to whether a contract negotiation such as this contract which you referred to, 1.8 billion doses, was negotiated through an SMS, I can categorically tell you that would not be the case," Janine Small, president of international developed markets at Pfizer, told the European Parliament's special committee on COVID-19 on Monday.</p><p>She added that such talks involve far too many people on both sides and take far too long to be conducted via mobile phone texts.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pfizer Exec Says CEO Did Not Negotiate EU COVID Vaccine Contract Via Text Message</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPfizer Exec Says CEO Did Not Negotiate EU COVID Vaccine Contract Via Text Message\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-10-10 22:03</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>A Pfizer executive with a lead role in negotiating a COVID-19 vaccine bulk supply agreement with the European Commission said she "categorically" rules out that the U.S. drugmaker's chief executive agreed the contract via mobile phone text messages.</p><p>"As to whether a contract negotiation such as this contract which you referred to, 1.8 billion doses, was negotiated through an SMS, I can categorically tell you that would not be the case," Janine Small, president of international developed markets at Pfizer, told the European Parliament's special committee on COVID-19 on Monday.</p><p>She added that such talks involve far too many people on both sides and take far too long to be conducted via mobile phone texts.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PFE":"辉瑞"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2274956645","content_text":"A Pfizer executive with a lead role in negotiating a COVID-19 vaccine bulk supply agreement with the European Commission said she \"categorically\" rules out that the U.S. drugmaker's chief executive agreed the contract via mobile phone text messages.\"As to whether a contract negotiation such as this contract which you referred to, 1.8 billion doses, was negotiated through an SMS, I can categorically tell you that would not be the case,\" Janine Small, president of international developed markets at Pfizer, told the European Parliament's special committee on COVID-19 on Monday.She added that such talks involve far too many people on both sides and take far too long to be conducted via mobile phone texts.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PFE":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2125,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9917985792,"gmtCreate":1665412314616,"gmtModify":1676537601953,"author":{"id":"4111108214816132","authorId":"4111108214816132","name":"Lum52","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111108214816132","authorIdStr":"4111108214816132"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9917985792","repostId":"1129204631","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129204631","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1665415321,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129204631?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-10 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The 2022 Bear Market Cycle May Be Far From Over","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129204631","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe bear markets of 1937, 2000, and 2008 suggest a short-term bottom may be found in October.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>The bear markets of 1937, 2000, and 2008 suggest a short-term bottom may be found in October.</li><li>However, that doesn't mean it will be the bottom.</li><li>Whether the market bottoms or not will depend on interest rates.</li></ul><p>The bear market of 2022 still has further to run based on historical trends and valuations versus interest rates. The 2022 S&P 500 continues to trace bear markets of 1937, 2000, and 2008, which is more an indication of the ebb and flow of human nature than past and future events.</p><p>The mid-August peak served as another turning point for the S&P 500, leading to a new September low. At this point, the historical references of the great bear markets of the past suggest another low is due sometime around October 25, give or take a couple of days, followed by an upward move and perhaps some consolidation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49a5b3b87d56cd4bd4441ffe78d7917b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p><b>An October New Low?</b></p><p>From a perspective of events that could lead to a continued decline and bottom at the end of October, a better-than-feared earnings season could be one such event. Whether a late October low will be the bottom or a short-term low is yet to be seen, but given how high valuations are, more work will need to be done for the bottom to be put in place.</p><p>It's All About Rates</p><p>The S&P 500 earnings yield for 2022 minus the 10-Yr real yield is currently 4.56%. Historically, that is at the lower end of the range and associated with market tops, not bottoms. For example, the 4.5% region was visited in December 2016, January 2018, October 2018, and June 2020. The only case that didn't see a significant decline was in December 2016, when the index consolidated sideways for nearly three months.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbe9b42330ab57d8cb7fcad9ad287b66\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>Since 2014, the average spread between the S&P 500 current year earnings yields and the 10-Yr real yield has been around 5.2%, with a standard deviation range of 4.87% to 5.57%. Currently, the S&P 500 premium to the 10-yr TIP is more than two standard deviations from the average. The spread would need to rise by 30 bps to get the index back to within one standard deviation, or by 65 bps to return to the historical average.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/716b902ff03171d3d6501fc54cd5e4ff\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>Another 9% Decline?</p><p>The S&P 500 has an earnings yield based on 2022 earnings estimates of 6.17%. An increase of 30 bps would increase the yield to 6.47%, and an increase of 60 bps would increase the yield to 6.77%. The earnings yield is simply the inverse of the PE ratio, which means the current PE ratio is 16.2 and would need to fall to 15.4 or 14.7 to bring the S&P 500 back to a historically average fair value.</p><p>With the earnings estimates for 2022 currently tracking at $224.73, it would value the S&P 500 in a range of 3,460 to 3,300. That would equal a further decline in the index of around 5% to 9%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65e039fb8224601f45af66fa8d842e51\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>What will tell us when this bear market is over is more likely to be interest rates and the dollar index, as these will likely provide a much better signal than other metrics. Because if rates continue to rise, the S&P 500 will need to continue to decline with the pace of rates risings.</p><p>Rate Cuts?</p><p>Typically, the 10-year minus the 2-year spread tells us when the Fed is about to start cutting rates. It is at the point where the spread begins to rise that tends to serve as the best reference for the end of a rate-hiking cycle and the start of a rate-cutting cycle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/446920a17ef8c631f042c4e6c66a83c5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>As the market anticipates Fed rate cuts, the 2-Year yield begins to fall back to the 10-Year. It is the opposite, with the 10-2 year spread just recently making a new low in September and showing very little if no signs of turning higher.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ebdd77840eddc274c550c53a8b6d962\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>Meanwhile, the best way to determine when the 10-2 Year spread may begin to rise is by looking at the unemployment rate because that tends to be a very good predictor of where yields are heading. Typically, when the unemployment starts to run higher, it indicates that the 10-2 year spread will widen, suggesting a rate cut cycle is near.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a37e7dfd2cd888c6f32ea805482bc8b2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>In this case, Friday's job report showed the unemployment rate fell to 3.5% from 3.7% last month and back to its July lows. That leaves the spread between the ten and 2-year Treasury nowhere close to putting in a bottom, and means the Fed is probably nowhere close to finishing its rate hiking cycle.</p><p>If the Fed is nowhere close to finishing its rate hiking cycle, then rates probably aren't finished rising. Thus, the equity market bear market cycle probably still has further to run, even if the equity market finds a short-term bottom at the end of October.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The 2022 Bear Market Cycle May Be Far From Over</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe 2022 Bear Market Cycle May Be Far From Over\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-10 23:22 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4545463-2022-bear-market-cycle-far-from-over><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe bear markets of 1937, 2000, and 2008 suggest a short-term bottom may be found in October.However, that doesn't mean it will be the bottom.Whether the market bottoms or not will depend on ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4545463-2022-bear-market-cycle-far-from-over\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4545463-2022-bear-market-cycle-far-from-over","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129204631","content_text":"SummaryThe bear markets of 1937, 2000, and 2008 suggest a short-term bottom may be found in October.However, that doesn't mean it will be the bottom.Whether the market bottoms or not will depend on interest rates.The bear market of 2022 still has further to run based on historical trends and valuations versus interest rates. The 2022 S&P 500 continues to trace bear markets of 1937, 2000, and 2008, which is more an indication of the ebb and flow of human nature than past and future events.The mid-August peak served as another turning point for the S&P 500, leading to a new September low. At this point, the historical references of the great bear markets of the past suggest another low is due sometime around October 25, give or take a couple of days, followed by an upward move and perhaps some consolidation.BloombergAn October New Low?From a perspective of events that could lead to a continued decline and bottom at the end of October, a better-than-feared earnings season could be one such event. Whether a late October low will be the bottom or a short-term low is yet to be seen, but given how high valuations are, more work will need to be done for the bottom to be put in place.It's All About RatesThe S&P 500 earnings yield for 2022 minus the 10-Yr real yield is currently 4.56%. Historically, that is at the lower end of the range and associated with market tops, not bottoms. For example, the 4.5% region was visited in December 2016, January 2018, October 2018, and June 2020. The only case that didn't see a significant decline was in December 2016, when the index consolidated sideways for nearly three months.BloombergSince 2014, the average spread between the S&P 500 current year earnings yields and the 10-Yr real yield has been around 5.2%, with a standard deviation range of 4.87% to 5.57%. Currently, the S&P 500 premium to the 10-yr TIP is more than two standard deviations from the average. The spread would need to rise by 30 bps to get the index back to within one standard deviation, or by 65 bps to return to the historical average.BloombergAnother 9% Decline?The S&P 500 has an earnings yield based on 2022 earnings estimates of 6.17%. An increase of 30 bps would increase the yield to 6.47%, and an increase of 60 bps would increase the yield to 6.77%. The earnings yield is simply the inverse of the PE ratio, which means the current PE ratio is 16.2 and would need to fall to 15.4 or 14.7 to bring the S&P 500 back to a historically average fair value.With the earnings estimates for 2022 currently tracking at $224.73, it would value the S&P 500 in a range of 3,460 to 3,300. That would equal a further decline in the index of around 5% to 9%.BloombergWhat will tell us when this bear market is over is more likely to be interest rates and the dollar index, as these will likely provide a much better signal than other metrics. Because if rates continue to rise, the S&P 500 will need to continue to decline with the pace of rates risings.Rate Cuts?Typically, the 10-year minus the 2-year spread tells us when the Fed is about to start cutting rates. It is at the point where the spread begins to rise that tends to serve as the best reference for the end of a rate-hiking cycle and the start of a rate-cutting cycle.BloombergAs the market anticipates Fed rate cuts, the 2-Year yield begins to fall back to the 10-Year. It is the opposite, with the 10-2 year spread just recently making a new low in September and showing very little if no signs of turning higher.BloombergMeanwhile, the best way to determine when the 10-2 Year spread may begin to rise is by looking at the unemployment rate because that tends to be a very good predictor of where yields are heading. Typically, when the unemployment starts to run higher, it indicates that the 10-2 year spread will widen, suggesting a rate cut cycle is near.BloombergIn this case, Friday's job report showed the unemployment rate fell to 3.5% from 3.7% last month and back to its July lows. That leaves the spread between the ten and 2-year Treasury nowhere close to putting in a bottom, and means the Fed is probably nowhere close to finishing its rate hiking cycle.If the Fed is nowhere close to finishing its rate hiking cycle, then rates probably aren't finished rising. Thus, the equity market bear market cycle probably still has further to run, even if the equity market finds a short-term bottom at the end of October.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3318,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9915617143,"gmtCreate":1665020457882,"gmtModify":1676537545455,"author":{"id":"4111108214816132","authorId":"4111108214816132","name":"Lum52","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111108214816132","authorIdStr":"4111108214816132"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915617143","repostId":"2273289978","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2401,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9915617343,"gmtCreate":1665020448482,"gmtModify":1676537545455,"author":{"id":"4111108214816132","authorId":"4111108214816132","name":"Lum52","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111108214816132","authorIdStr":"4111108214816132"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915617343","repostId":"2273289978","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2902,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}