Profile - To The Moon

TG88

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- TG88TG88
  ·11-29
  tiger ate my turkey this year 🤣🤣 TIGR
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- TG88TG88
  ·2023-01-31
  $Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$
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- TG88TG88
  ·2022-12-08
  Tiok
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- TG88TG88
  ·2022-11-30
  🤷
  SQQQ, TQQQ: Leveraged ETFs Can Be A (Short-Term) Home Run Or A (Long-Term) Loaded Gun
  SummaryLeveraged ETFs are explosive securities with the ability/potential to give your portfolio a b
  SQQQ, TQQQ: Leveraged ETFs Can Be A (Short-Term) Home Run Or A (Long-Term) Loaded Gun
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- TG88TG88
  ·2022-11-29
  $Alibaba(09988)$
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- TG88TG88
  ·2022-11-29
  GB
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- TG88TG88
  ·2022-10-15
  $Nasdaq100 Bull 3X ETF(TQQQ)$
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- TG88TG88
  ·2022-08-21
  tiok
  Here Are the Signs That the Bear-Market Rally in Stocks Won’t Last Long – Citi
  The size and duration of the bear-market rally is already in line with what is typical, suggesting t
  Here Are the Signs That the Bear-Market Rally in Stocks Won’t Last Long – Citi
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- TG88TG88
  ·2022-08-15
  Tiok
  Palantir: Don't Fear The Bears, Buy This Dip Aggressively
  SummaryPalantir's Q2 earnings release stunned some investors because its government revenue growth s
  Palantir: Don't Fear The Bears, Buy This Dip Aggressively
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- TG88TG88
  ·2022-08-06
  Tiok
  Alibaba Is Still Not A Buy, Here's Why
  SummaryBABA gained close to 7% in pre-market trading on August 4th after reporting stronger-than-exp
  Alibaba Is Still Not A Buy, Here's Why
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ETF(SQQQ)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955399917","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":165,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9920803191,"gmtCreate":1670460272513,"gmtModify":1676538372002,"author":{"id":"4114404437468532","authorId":"4114404437468532","name":"TG88","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f6b3493953d21c55a7dc72065e32a4ef","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4114404437468532","authorIdStr":"4114404437468532"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiok","listText":"Tiok","text":"Tiok","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1caf69c954d2e81d98180bd51f67bd43","width":"1284","height":"2538"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9920803191","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":197,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962568136,"gmtCreate":1669809255525,"gmtModify":1676538247556,"author":{"id":"4114404437468532","authorId":"4114404437468532","name":"TG88","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f6b3493953d21c55a7dc72065e32a4ef","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4114404437468532","authorIdStr":"4114404437468532"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🤷","listText":"🤷","text":"🤷","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962568136","repostId":"1106229901","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106229901","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669821685,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1106229901?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-30 23:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SQQQ, TQQQ: Leveraged ETFs Can Be A (Short-Term) Home Run Or A (Long-Term) Loaded Gun","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106229901","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryLeveraged ETFs are explosive securities with the ability/potential to give your portfolio a b","content":"<html><head></head><body><h3>Summary</h3><ul><li>Leveraged ETFs are explosive securities with the ability/potential to give your portfolio a big boost (&#39;home run&#39;) or to cause severe damage (&#39;loaded gun&#39;).</li><li>&#39;Home run&#39; allows the batter (investor) to make a complete circuit (whole), and score a big r(et)u(r)n (as well as hedging) for the team (portfolio).</li><li>&#39;Loaded gun&#39; refers to something dangerous, an accident waiting to happen. Playing (investing) with something (leverage) that shouldn&#39;t be messed with.</li><li>In this article, we try to cover all the bases you may find within the leveraged ETFs pitch, particularly 3x-leveraged NASDAQ-100 and Semiconductor ETFs.</li></ul><h3>Prologue</h3><p>Nearly two weeks ago we wrote about &#39;hedging through shorting&#39;, while presenting our short positions in two 3x-leveraged ETFs: ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF (NASDAQ:TQQQ) and Direxion Daily Semiconductor 3x Bull Shares ETF (SOXL).</p><p>In this article, we wish to remain within the same theme (hedging through shorting) and elaborate on this topic, particularly touching upon two very important aspects that are (not only related but) crucial to the theme:</p><p>1) Leveraged ETFs (in general): Buy vs. Sell, Pros and Cons, Risk and Reward.</p><p>2) Live demonstration of how leveraged ETFs&#39; mechanics work (or don&#39;t work...): Specific examples using two pairs of growth/tech leveraged ETFs:</p><ul><li>Big Tech: ProShares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ) vs ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (NASDAQ:SQQQ)</li><li>Semiconductors: Direxion Daily Semiconductor 3X Bull Shares ETF (SOXL) vs Direxion Daily Semiconductor 3X Bear Shares ETF (SOXS)</li></ul><h3>Leveraged ETFs - Key Features</h3><p><b>Buy vs Sell</b></p><p>This is likely the most important aspect to keep in mind.</p><p>Since leveraged ETFs use options/derivatives to achieve the magnifying element (leveraging) - any leveraged ETF, by definition, suffers from time decay, aka &#34;Theta&#34;.</p><blockquote>Time decay is a measure of the rate of decline in the value of an options contract due to the passage of time. Time decay accelerates as an option&#39;s time to expiration draws closer since there&#39;s less time to realize a profit from the trade. - [Source]</blockquote><p>What you need to know:</p><p>1. The closer an option is to its expiry date - the more rapidly it&#39;s losing money (to time decay).</p><p>2. An &#34;At The Money&#34; (&#34;ATM&#34;) option will receive the biggest premium at the start, but will lose the most, at an accelerating pace, towards the end.</p><p>3. An &#34;In The Money&#34; (&#34;ITM&#34;) option will receive the smallest premium at the start, and it will lose that premium, at a fairly steady pace, along its life.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/368ed5a08b21ab35157fd2dafd062adb\" tg-width=\"1126\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>From a pure Theta perspective, it&#39;s categorically better to sell a leveraged ETF than to buy one, because the (loss of) time decay is working in the investor&#39;s favor.</p><h3>Pros and Cons</h3><p>Leveraged ETFs are risky instruments.</p><p>Therefore, there are certain features one must be aware of, and there are certain rules one would be better off adhering to.</p><ul><li>Leverage (of a benchmark)</li></ul><p>Principally, all leveraged ETFs are aiming to amplify the return of a non-leveraged instrument, usually an index. For example:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150dbfc8472af659f2d4d0944b5e98c5\" tg-width=\"639\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aacda8b59c69aea79e6571fb0afcdde\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>It&#39;s important to remain within one&#39;s comfort zone, and to ensure that the use of a leveraged ETF fits the investor&#39;s profile, needs, and risk aversion.</p><ul><li>Volatility</li></ul><p>Looking at the 30-Day Rolling Volatility, you can see that the leverage is amplifying not only the return, but also the volatility. A 3x-leveraged ETF is 3x as volatile as the benchmark it&#39;s looking to copy.</p><p>Semis:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9d915744f2a6776e745da15b2cecab4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Tech:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfac9d30f417c667d74397fc29f1dcdd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><ul><li><b>Daily performance</b></li></ul><p>This is one of the features many investors miss or fail to understand.</p><p>Leveraged ETFs are trying to mimic the daily performance of a certain benchmark. As such, when you look at the daily (or short-term for that matter) performance - the leveraged ETF is likely to show a very/fairly close return to the leverage it offers (be it a long or a short mechanism). For example:</p><p>Semis&#39; 1-day price change: Daily returns of SOXL and SOXS are about +3x and -3x, respectively, the daily return of SOXX.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08ca1f40fcd06f5ad9537f02af6ffe76\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Tech&#39;s 1-day price change: Daily returns of TQQQ and SQQQ are about +3x and -3x, respectively, the daily return of QQQ.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a55a842f81460cba9dc1a6938d472d92\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Nonetheless, if we move to a longer period, say 2022, the math isn&#39;t as straight as it&#39;s when we look at the short-term.</p><p>Semis&#39; YTD price change: YTD returns of SOXL and SOXS are about +2.65x and -0.07x, respectively, the YTD return of SOXX.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92d1ddfcba6984ae9d30559901dfc14c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Tech&#39;s YTD price change: YTD returns of TQQQ and SQQQ are about +2.61x and -2.87x [=(52.59+28.13)/-28.13], respectively, the daily return of QQQ.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/411ddaf98aa8aa072f20f9953bac8e26\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Over time, and assuming the benchmark/index doesn&#39;t move in a (fairly) straight line - the performance of a leveraged ETF may differ significantly from the performance of the underlying benchmark.</p><h3>Risk and Reward</h3><ul><li>Phenomenal/Horrendous Total Returns</li></ul><p>First and foremost, as you may well understand, the main risk is the (quite reasonable) scenario of losing a lot of money, quickly.</p><p>Of course, there&#39;s always the flip-side of that coin, and leveraged ETFs may also deliver significant returns (during short periods).</p><p>If &#34;Timing is Everything&#34;, generally speaking, it&#39;s even more crucial when it comes to buying leveraged ETFs. One must have a high conviction, a near-perfect timing, a short-term trading view/mentality, and an exit (including stop loss) strategy. [We elaborate on these elements at the end of this article.]</p><p>Below you can see the total returns of the leveraged ETFs we focus on during two very different periods.</p><p>1) Bear Market: Total Return since Dec. 27, 2021</p><p>Semis:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6894a55ca17620f94b6c167ef6402e40\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Tech:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1101bbe95e105d513c3e3ea4558a48fd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Clearly, there&#39;s a lot of money to be lost (or made) during a bear market with any instrument, let alone 3x-leveraged ETFs. While the benchmarks (SOXX, QQQ) have lost ~30%, the ultra long ETFs (SOXL, TQQQ) have lost over 3/4 of their value, and the ultra short ETFs (SOXS, SQQQ) have actually gained.</p><p>Pay attention to the divergence between SOXS (a gain of only 4.5%) and SQQQ (a gain of 59.3%), a result of the recent speedy recovery of Semis (relative to Tech) in recent weeks.</p><p>2) Bull Market: Total Return from Mar. 23, 2020 to Dec. 27, 2021</p><p>Semis:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92b8f1a0c1b82b3cb1e5ad23e4896cd7\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Tech:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b74788301b08e6b05cb21c07a2bf633e\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Clearly, there&#39;s a lot of money to be lost (or made) during a bull market with any instrument, let alone 3x-leveraged ETFs. While the benchmarks (SOXX, QQQ) have gained low triple-digit %, the ultra long ETFs (SOXL, TQQQ) have delivered stunning returns. At the same time, the ultra short ETFs (SOXS, SQQQ) have practically vanished, leaving investors with (nearly) nothing out of their initial investments.</p><ul><li>The Longer the Tenure - the Higher the Risk of Losing Big</li></ul><p>Secondly, and regardless of the (bull or bear) type of market we&#39;re in and/or the total return over a certain period, leveraged ETFs are guaranteed to lose value over time. Putting it differently, the longer you stick to these instruments - the higher the odds of a significant drawdown.</p><p>Below you can see how deep is the decline that leveraged ETFs have (thus may) suffered from (% off-high) over different tenures.</p><ul><li>3 years: While the long versions (SOXL, TQQQ) have lost 75%-80%, the short versions (SOXS, SQQQ) have lost nearly their entire value.</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a6e0590652f7807dac6b79902906e56\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"501\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>10 years: While the long versions (SOXL, TQQQ) have lost 75%-80%, the short versions (SOXS, SQQQ) have lost nearly their entire value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06cfda7540359bd9cc38adb53f3c0ce5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"501\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Although the past decade can definitely be described as a bull market (overall), leveraged ETFs have been hammered, no matter whether they were long or short the underlying benchmarks.</p><p>This, once again, proves that these instruments can&#39;t be held (long position) over the long run. You can be long, but not for too long.</p><ul><li>&#34;The Road is Long With Many a Winding Turn&#34; [Source]</li></ul><p>Finally, it&#39;s important to understand that both time and slope play a major role in determining the return, therefore worthiness, of trading a leveraged ETF.</p><p>It&#39;s very unlikely, almost impossible, for your long (short) leveraged ETF position to deliver a return equal to the (inverse) return of the underlying, non-leveraged, benchmark.</p><p>To explain this, let&#39;s use the S&amp;P 500 and its +/-1/2/3 leveraged versions.</p><p>Naturally, the 2x- (SSO, SDS) and 3x- (SPXL, SPXU) leveraged versions are 2x and 3x as volatile as the non-leveraged versions (SPY, SH).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bad8a8d33cac5ca5325d1e87252fcc57\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"501\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>But does the extra volatility usually/automatically translate into higher returns? Not necessarily.</p><p>YTD: While the returns of the long versions (SPY, SSO, SPXL) make sense (from a leverage/volatility perspective), those of the short versions (SH, SDS, SPXS) don&#39;t.</p><p>As a matter of fact, the 2x-leveraged SDS and the 3x-leveraged SPXS have delivered nearly the same total returns. If so, why would one pick the more risky SPXS over the less risky SDS!?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c1d7bf3df268038e733ac481808cfd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"501\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>3-Year: The 2x-leveraged SSO has returned twice as much as the 3x-leveraged SPXL. Moreover, the non-leveraged SPY is only ~4.4% short of SSO&#39;s total return.</p><p>In both cases, the extra risk (volatility) hasn&#39;t resulted in a better performance; quite the contrary.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fb13320549920cff3809ee8726cb761\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"501\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>5-Year: Once again, the 2x-leveraged SSO has returned more than the 3x-leveraged SPXL. Moreover, the 2x-leveraged SDS hasn&#39;t performed a lot better than the 3x-leveraged SPXS.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdad0968ee275882b1bde91148e5adc6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"501\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>10-Year: The short ETFs, whether leveraged or not, got battered. The long ETFs, however, are looking as good as how you wish a leveraged ETF (that you buy) to be.</p><p>SPXL and SSO have returned more than 4x and ~2.5x, respectively, what SPY has.</p><h3><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1fa1010c919a4c479c723f41feca151\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"501\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Macro Trading Factory - Trading Alerts</h3><p>Here is some of the information that we posted when we issued the most recent trading alerts (&#34;TAs&#34;) to our subscribers.</p><p>We are happy to share this information here, as we believe it&#39;s relevant and allows for a better understanding of the topic.</p><p><b>TA dated Nov. 14, 2022:</b></p><p>These TAs were discussed and explained in the piece that we&#39;ve published Nov. 14.</p><p>The main message: With the SPX reaching the 4000 mark, we wish to employ some anti-tech/growth hedging again, and by doing so we&#39;re (once again) reducing our net long exposure (back to the low 60s% area).</p><p>Recall that there are two pairs we&#39;re referring to:</p><ul><li>Direxion Daily Semiconductor 3X Bull Shares ETF (SOXL) vs. Direxion Daily Semiconductor 3X Bear Shares ETF (SOXS) &gt;&gt;&gt; We&#39;re shorting SOXL, but one may buy SOXS for a similar (though not equivalent) effect.</li><li>ProShares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ) vs ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (SQQQ) &gt;&gt;&gt; We&#39;re shorting TQQQ, but one may buy SQQQ for a similar (though not equivalent) effect.</li></ul><p>Key points to keep in mind:</p><p><b>Total Assets Under Management:</b></p><p>The 3x-bullish ETFs (SOXL, TQQQ) are attracting a lot more money than their 3x-bearish counterparts (SOXS, SQQQ).</p><p>Having said that, last week no less than $658M was funneled into SQQQ. Per Bloomberg, that’s the largest-ever inflow for a product that aims to deliver 3x the opposite performance of the US benchmark for major technology companies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9724d5357aacd21faca67fa41303f501\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>When looking at the Daily Price Change the movements are fairly close in absolute terms, i.e. SOXL is moving like SOXS and TQQQ is moving like SQQQ.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c47be4c766220c701899bf0d6a101de\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Nevertheless, things are changing over time.</p><p>The longer the period - the greater the (potential) divergence.</p><p>It&#39;s not guaranteed, but shorting the 3x-bullish ETFs is likely to deliver a better return than buying the 3x-bearish ETFs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bd04a6dd22233fa049980c445da8fe1\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>TA dated Nov. 15, 2022:</b></p><p>Nothing to add to what we wrote Nov. 14, but still - we would like to show you how even the technical analysis supports the fundamentals and risk aversion mode we see ahead.</p><p>Recall that it&#39;s not advisable to do technical analysis using leveraged instruments. Leverage is just a &#34;wrapper&#34; not the base &#34;package&#34; which is the non-leveraged instrument.</p><p>Having that in mind, here are the two, relevant, non-leveraged instruments on which we conduct some technical analysis. [Note that they&#39;re very similar in terms of nature and the message they deliver.]</p><p>SOXX is currently hitting (or just about to hit) three resistance levels:</p><ul><li>200-DMA</li><li>Long-term down-trending red line</li><li>Short-term (horizontal) green line</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6eee7104e4db90857447d7d121ae952\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>QQQ is coming close to hit three resistance levels:</p><ul><li>200-DMA</li><li>Long-term down-trending red line</li><li>Short-term (horizontal) green line</li></ul><h3><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e598be9ef4639bb84d081b6c7683223a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Epilogue</h3><p>A leveraged ETF can be your best friend when you get the direction and timing right, but it can be your worst nightmare when you get the direction and timing wrong.</p><p>We hope that through this article, we&#39;ve managed to assist you with better understanding the Dr. Jekyll (&#39;Home Run&#39;) and Mr. Hyde (&#39;Loaded Gun&#39;) natures (characteristics) of these instruments.</p><p>As we mentioned above, when buying a leveraged ETF, it&#39;s very important to keep the pros and cons, risk and reward, in mind but it&#39;s not enough. In addition to all these attributes, one musts also have the following:</p><p><b>1) High Conviction</b>: Buying a leveraged ETF requires a higher-than-usual conviction, in line with the significantly higher volatility. &#34;Feeling good&#34; about the upside potential of an investing idea isn&#39;t enough and an in-depth analysis regarding the downside risk is key.</p><p>If we believe the downside risk of the underlying (non-leveraged) to be significant (usually 20%), we&#39;re less likely to move in, even if the upside is way more significant.</p><p>Unlike a non-leveraged security that we may buy (if the risk/reward is very attractive) even if the downside risk is significant, when it comes to a leveraged ETF downside risk rules (overcoming the risk/reward profile, no matter how attractive the latter is).</p><p><b>2) Near-perfect timing</b>: It&#39;s very hard to find the &#34;right moment&#34;, surely the &#34;perfect timing&#34;. The latter is based on pure luck and only retrospectively we are in position to know whether our timing was good or not.</p><p>Therefore, when we say &#34;near perfect timing&#34; we actually refer to maximum hesitation and patience. Take your time, don&#39;t rush, and let the stabilization, consolidation, and/or capitulation periods show their pretty, and more important: less risky, face.</p><p>In line with that, it&#39;s strongly advisable to build a position involving a leveraged ETF over time. Indeed, it&#39;s likely going to be a relatively short time, in order to match the &#34;hit the iron while it&#39;s hot&#34; concept. Still, it&#39;s better to &#39;hit&#39; a leveraged &#39;iron&#39; several times rather than only once or twice.</p><p><b>3) Short-term trading view/mentality</b>: We believe that investors mustn&#39;t &#34;get married&#34; with any position, surely not with a leveraged ETF.</p><p>Any position has a (stretched) valuation where it warrants a sale, and when it comes to leveraged ETFs - quick &#34;love affairs&#34; is the name of the game.</p><p>Leveraged ETFs aren&#39;t the type of instrument you wish to get older with. They are only suitable for certain times and there&#39;s no reason to extend their hospitality for too long.</p><p>Best is to pre-set levels and targets, and once those get fulfilled - kiss the leveraged ETF goodbye. No hard feelings, and no need to shed tears.</p><p><b>4) An exit (including stop loss) strategy</b>:</p><p>Not every encounter we have in life results in a pleasant experience. Some encounters are very enjoyable/profitable, some less, and a few may suck big time.</p><p>The idea is to minimize the latter type and to avoid stretching the former type.</p><p>If it works out quickly - say goodbye quickly.</p><p>If you still wish to examine the relationship - let it be, as long as the examining period doesn&#39;t come at the expense of other, possibly better, encounters.</p><p>But if it looks as if there&#39;s no future here - there&#39;s really no reason to stick around. Cut your losses and move on.</p><p>Obviously, easier said (or written) than done, but here&#39;s an example of all the trades we suggested involving SOXL, one of the leveraged ETF we were active with this year on both LONG and SHORT fronts.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0fceeac15e08c937192dbffd184eb9a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>I don&#39;t think we had perfect timing, but we did have pretty good timing.</p><p>More importantly, we had a high conviction [Note: different times = different directions!], we surely had/have a short-term trading view/mentality, and we certainly didn&#39;t/don&#39;t fall in love with the position - be it a LONG or a SHORT one.</p><p>Last but not least, keep in mind that we use leveraged ETFs as part of our HEDGING strategy, which means that there are LONG positions (we wish to protect) against the SHORT positions (if and when we open such positions).</p><p>This isn&#39;t something we suggest the average investor do without having the necessary ingredients (knowledge, experience, guts/risk aversion) and tools (risk analysis, portfolio management, modeling) to support such an activity.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SQQQ, TQQQ: Leveraged ETFs Can Be A (Short-Term) Home Run Or A (Long-Term) Loaded Gun</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSQQQ, TQQQ: Leveraged ETFs Can Be A (Short-Term) Home Run Or A (Long-Term) Loaded Gun\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-30 23:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4561075-sqqq-tqqq-leveraged-etfs-home-run-or-loaded-gun><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryLeveraged ETFs are explosive securities with the ability/potential to give your portfolio a big boost ('home run') or to cause severe damage ('loaded gun').'Home run' allows the batter (...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4561075-sqqq-tqqq-leveraged-etfs-home-run-or-loaded-gun\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4561075-sqqq-tqqq-leveraged-etfs-home-run-or-loaded-gun","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1106229901","content_text":"SummaryLeveraged ETFs are explosive securities with the ability/potential to give your portfolio a big boost ('home run') or to cause severe damage ('loaded gun').'Home run' allows the batter (investor) to make a complete circuit (whole), and score a big r(et)u(r)n (as well as hedging) for the team (portfolio).'Loaded gun' refers to something dangerous, an accident waiting to happen. Playing (investing) with something (leverage) that shouldn't be messed with.In this article, we try to cover all the bases you may find within the leveraged ETFs pitch, particularly 3x-leveraged NASDAQ-100 and Semiconductor ETFs.PrologueNearly two weeks ago we wrote about 'hedging through shorting', while presenting our short positions in two 3x-leveraged ETFs: ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF (NASDAQ:TQQQ) and Direxion Daily Semiconductor 3x Bull Shares ETF (SOXL).In this article, we wish to remain within the same theme (hedging through shorting) and elaborate on this topic, particularly touching upon two very important aspects that are (not only related but) crucial to the theme:1) Leveraged ETFs (in general): Buy vs. Sell, Pros and Cons, Risk and Reward.2) Live demonstration of how leveraged ETFs' mechanics work (or don't work...): Specific examples using two pairs of growth/tech leveraged ETFs:Big Tech: ProShares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ) vs ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (NASDAQ:SQQQ)Semiconductors: Direxion Daily Semiconductor 3X Bull Shares ETF (SOXL) vs Direxion Daily Semiconductor 3X Bear Shares ETF (SOXS)Leveraged ETFs - Key FeaturesBuy vs SellThis is likely the most important aspect to keep in mind.Since leveraged ETFs use options/derivatives to achieve the magnifying element (leveraging) - any leveraged ETF, by definition, suffers from time decay, aka \"Theta\".Time decay is a measure of the rate of decline in the value of an options contract due to the passage of time. Time decay accelerates as an option's time to expiration draws closer since there's less time to realize a profit from the trade. - [Source]What you need to know:1. The closer an option is to its expiry date - the more rapidly it's losing money (to time decay).2. An \"At The Money\" (\"ATM\") option will receive the biggest premium at the start, but will lose the most, at an accelerating pace, towards the end.3. An \"In The Money\" (\"ITM\") option will receive the smallest premium at the start, and it will lose that premium, at a fairly steady pace, along its life.From a pure Theta perspective, it's categorically better to sell a leveraged ETF than to buy one, because the (loss of) time decay is working in the investor's favor.Pros and ConsLeveraged ETFs are risky instruments.Therefore, there are certain features one must be aware of, and there are certain rules one would be better off adhering to.Leverage (of a benchmark)Principally, all leveraged ETFs are aiming to amplify the return of a non-leveraged instrument, usually an index. For example:It's important to remain within one's comfort zone, and to ensure that the use of a leveraged ETF fits the investor's profile, needs, and risk aversion.VolatilityLooking at the 30-Day Rolling Volatility, you can see that the leverage is amplifying not only the return, but also the volatility. A 3x-leveraged ETF is 3x as volatile as the benchmark it's looking to copy.Semis:Tech:Daily performanceThis is one of the features many investors miss or fail to understand.Leveraged ETFs are trying to mimic the daily performance of a certain benchmark. As such, when you look at the daily (or short-term for that matter) performance - the leveraged ETF is likely to show a very/fairly close return to the leverage it offers (be it a long or a short mechanism). For example:Semis' 1-day price change: Daily returns of SOXL and SOXS are about +3x and -3x, respectively, the daily return of SOXX.Tech's 1-day price change: Daily returns of TQQQ and SQQQ are about +3x and -3x, respectively, the daily return of QQQ.Nonetheless, if we move to a longer period, say 2022, the math isn't as straight as it's when we look at the short-term.Semis' YTD price change: YTD returns of SOXL and SOXS are about +2.65x and -0.07x, respectively, the YTD return of SOXX.Tech's YTD price change: YTD returns of TQQQ and SQQQ are about +2.61x and -2.87x [=(52.59+28.13)/-28.13], respectively, the daily return of QQQ.Over time, and assuming the benchmark/index doesn't move in a (fairly) straight line - the performance of a leveraged ETF may differ significantly from the performance of the underlying benchmark.Risk and RewardPhenomenal/Horrendous Total ReturnsFirst and foremost, as you may well understand, the main risk is the (quite reasonable) scenario of losing a lot of money, quickly.Of course, there's always the flip-side of that coin, and leveraged ETFs may also deliver significant returns (during short periods).If \"Timing is Everything\", generally speaking, it's even more crucial when it comes to buying leveraged ETFs. One must have a high conviction, a near-perfect timing, a short-term trading view/mentality, and an exit (including stop loss) strategy. [We elaborate on these elements at the end of this article.]Below you can see the total returns of the leveraged ETFs we focus on during two very different periods.1) Bear Market: Total Return since Dec. 27, 2021Semis:Tech:Clearly, there's a lot of money to be lost (or made) during a bear market with any instrument, let alone 3x-leveraged ETFs. While the benchmarks (SOXX, QQQ) have lost ~30%, the ultra long ETFs (SOXL, TQQQ) have lost over 3/4 of their value, and the ultra short ETFs (SOXS, SQQQ) have actually gained.Pay attention to the divergence between SOXS (a gain of only 4.5%) and SQQQ (a gain of 59.3%), a result of the recent speedy recovery of Semis (relative to Tech) in recent weeks.2) Bull Market: Total Return from Mar. 23, 2020 to Dec. 27, 2021Semis:Tech:Clearly, there's a lot of money to be lost (or made) during a bull market with any instrument, let alone 3x-leveraged ETFs. While the benchmarks (SOXX, QQQ) have gained low triple-digit %, the ultra long ETFs (SOXL, TQQQ) have delivered stunning returns. At the same time, the ultra short ETFs (SOXS, SQQQ) have practically vanished, leaving investors with (nearly) nothing out of their initial investments.The Longer the Tenure - the Higher the Risk of Losing BigSecondly, and regardless of the (bull or bear) type of market we're in and/or the total return over a certain period, leveraged ETFs are guaranteed to lose value over time. Putting it differently, the longer you stick to these instruments - the higher the odds of a significant drawdown.Below you can see how deep is the decline that leveraged ETFs have (thus may) suffered from (% off-high) over different tenures.3 years: While the long versions (SOXL, TQQQ) have lost 75%-80%, the short versions (SOXS, SQQQ) have lost nearly their entire value.10 years: While the long versions (SOXL, TQQQ) have lost 75%-80%, the short versions (SOXS, SQQQ) have lost nearly their entire value.Although the past decade can definitely be described as a bull market (overall), leveraged ETFs have been hammered, no matter whether they were long or short the underlying benchmarks.This, once again, proves that these instruments can't be held (long position) over the long run. You can be long, but not for too long.\"The Road is Long With Many a Winding Turn\" [Source]Finally, it's important to understand that both time and slope play a major role in determining the return, therefore worthiness, of trading a leveraged ETF.It's very unlikely, almost impossible, for your long (short) leveraged ETF position to deliver a return equal to the (inverse) return of the underlying, non-leveraged, benchmark.To explain this, let's use the S&P 500 and its +/-1/2/3 leveraged versions.Naturally, the 2x- (SSO, SDS) and 3x- (SPXL, SPXU) leveraged versions are 2x and 3x as volatile as the non-leveraged versions (SPY, SH).But does the extra volatility usually/automatically translate into higher returns? Not necessarily.YTD: While the returns of the long versions (SPY, SSO, SPXL) make sense (from a leverage/volatility perspective), those of the short versions (SH, SDS, SPXS) don't.As a matter of fact, the 2x-leveraged SDS and the 3x-leveraged SPXS have delivered nearly the same total returns. If so, why would one pick the more risky SPXS over the less risky SDS!?3-Year: The 2x-leveraged SSO has returned twice as much as the 3x-leveraged SPXL. Moreover, the non-leveraged SPY is only ~4.4% short of SSO's total return.In both cases, the extra risk (volatility) hasn't resulted in a better performance; quite the contrary.5-Year: Once again, the 2x-leveraged SSO has returned more than the 3x-leveraged SPXL. Moreover, the 2x-leveraged SDS hasn't performed a lot better than the 3x-leveraged SPXS.10-Year: The short ETFs, whether leveraged or not, got battered. The long ETFs, however, are looking as good as how you wish a leveraged ETF (that you buy) to be.SPXL and SSO have returned more than 4x and ~2.5x, respectively, what SPY has.Macro Trading Factory - Trading AlertsHere is some of the information that we posted when we issued the most recent trading alerts (\"TAs\") to our subscribers.We are happy to share this information here, as we believe it's relevant and allows for a better understanding of the topic.TA dated Nov. 14, 2022:These TAs were discussed and explained in the piece that we've published Nov. 14.The main message: With the SPX reaching the 4000 mark, we wish to employ some anti-tech/growth hedging again, and by doing so we're (once again) reducing our net long exposure (back to the low 60s% area).Recall that there are two pairs we're referring to:Direxion Daily Semiconductor 3X Bull Shares ETF (SOXL) vs. Direxion Daily Semiconductor 3X Bear Shares ETF (SOXS) >>> We're shorting SOXL, but one may buy SOXS for a similar (though not equivalent) effect.ProShares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ) vs ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (SQQQ) >>> We're shorting TQQQ, but one may buy SQQQ for a similar (though not equivalent) effect.Key points to keep in mind:Total Assets Under Management:The 3x-bullish ETFs (SOXL, TQQQ) are attracting a lot more money than their 3x-bearish counterparts (SOXS, SQQQ).Having said that, last week no less than $658M was funneled into SQQQ. Per Bloomberg, that’s the largest-ever inflow for a product that aims to deliver 3x the opposite performance of the US benchmark for major technology companies.When looking at the Daily Price Change the movements are fairly close in absolute terms, i.e. SOXL is moving like SOXS and TQQQ is moving like SQQQ.Nevertheless, things are changing over time.The longer the period - the greater the (potential) divergence.It's not guaranteed, but shorting the 3x-bullish ETFs is likely to deliver a better return than buying the 3x-bearish ETFs.TA dated Nov. 15, 2022:Nothing to add to what we wrote Nov. 14, but still - we would like to show you how even the technical analysis supports the fundamentals and risk aversion mode we see ahead.Recall that it's not advisable to do technical analysis using leveraged instruments. Leverage is just a \"wrapper\" not the base \"package\" which is the non-leveraged instrument.Having that in mind, here are the two, relevant, non-leveraged instruments on which we conduct some technical analysis. [Note that they're very similar in terms of nature and the message they deliver.]SOXX is currently hitting (or just about to hit) three resistance levels:200-DMALong-term down-trending red lineShort-term (horizontal) green lineQQQ is coming close to hit three resistance levels:200-DMALong-term down-trending red lineShort-term (horizontal) green lineEpilogueA leveraged ETF can be your best friend when you get the direction and timing right, but it can be your worst nightmare when you get the direction and timing wrong.We hope that through this article, we've managed to assist you with better understanding the Dr. Jekyll ('Home Run') and Mr. Hyde ('Loaded Gun') natures (characteristics) of these instruments.As we mentioned above, when buying a leveraged ETF, it's very important to keep the pros and cons, risk and reward, in mind but it's not enough. In addition to all these attributes, one musts also have the following:1) High Conviction: Buying a leveraged ETF requires a higher-than-usual conviction, in line with the significantly higher volatility. \"Feeling good\" about the upside potential of an investing idea isn't enough and an in-depth analysis regarding the downside risk is key.If we believe the downside risk of the underlying (non-leveraged) to be significant (usually 20%), we're less likely to move in, even if the upside is way more significant.Unlike a non-leveraged security that we may buy (if the risk/reward is very attractive) even if the downside risk is significant, when it comes to a leveraged ETF downside risk rules (overcoming the risk/reward profile, no matter how attractive the latter is).2) Near-perfect timing: It's very hard to find the \"right moment\", surely the \"perfect timing\". The latter is based on pure luck and only retrospectively we are in position to know whether our timing was good or not.Therefore, when we say \"near perfect timing\" we actually refer to maximum hesitation and patience. Take your time, don't rush, and let the stabilization, consolidation, and/or capitulation periods show their pretty, and more important: less risky, face.In line with that, it's strongly advisable to build a position involving a leveraged ETF over time. Indeed, it's likely going to be a relatively short time, in order to match the \"hit the iron while it's hot\" concept. Still, it's better to 'hit' a leveraged 'iron' several times rather than only once or twice.3) Short-term trading view/mentality: We believe that investors mustn't \"get married\" with any position, surely not with a leveraged ETF.Any position has a (stretched) valuation where it warrants a sale, and when it comes to leveraged ETFs - quick \"love affairs\" is the name of the game.Leveraged ETFs aren't the type of instrument you wish to get older with. They are only suitable for certain times and there's no reason to extend their hospitality for too long.Best is to pre-set levels and targets, and once those get fulfilled - kiss the leveraged ETF goodbye. No hard feelings, and no need to shed tears.4) An exit (including stop loss) strategy:Not every encounter we have in life results in a pleasant experience. Some encounters are very enjoyable/profitable, some less, and a few may suck big time.The idea is to minimize the latter type and to avoid stretching the former type.If it works out quickly - say goodbye quickly.If you still wish to examine the relationship - let it be, as long as the examining period doesn't come at the expense of other, possibly better, encounters.But if it looks as if there's no future here - there's really no reason to stick around. Cut your losses and move on.Obviously, easier said (or written) than done, but here's an example of all the trades we suggested involving SOXL, one of the leveraged ETF we were active with this year on both LONG and SHORT fronts.I don't think we had perfect timing, but we did have pretty good timing.More importantly, we had a high conviction [Note: different times = different directions!], we surely had/have a short-term trading view/mentality, and we certainly didn't/don't fall in love with the position - be it a LONG or a SHORT one.Last but not least, keep in mind that we use leveraged ETFs as part of our HEDGING strategy, which means that there are LONG positions (we wish to protect) against the SHORT positions (if and when we open such positions).This isn't something we suggest the average investor do without having the necessary ingredients (knowledge, experience, guts/risk aversion) and tools (risk analysis, portfolio management, modeling) to support such an activity.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":281,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962904321,"gmtCreate":1669687509163,"gmtModify":1676538223372,"author":{"id":"4114404437468532","authorId":"4114404437468532","name":"TG88","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f6b3493953d21c55a7dc72065e32a4ef","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4114404437468532","authorIdStr":"4114404437468532"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/09988\">$Alibaba(09988)$&nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/09988\">$Alibaba(09988)$&nbsp;</a>","text":"$Alibaba(09988)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962904321","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":236,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962075533,"gmtCreate":1669685864723,"gmtModify":1676538222972,"author":{"id":"4114404437468532","authorId":"4114404437468532","name":"TG88","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f6b3493953d21c55a7dc72065e32a4ef","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4114404437468532","authorIdStr":"4114404437468532"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"GB","listText":"GB","text":"GB","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962075533","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":221,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9980584355,"gmtCreate":1665775313278,"gmtModify":1676537662487,"author":{"id":"4114404437468532","authorId":"4114404437468532","name":"TG88","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f6b3493953d21c55a7dc72065e32a4ef","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4114404437468532","authorIdStr":"4114404437468532"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TQQQ\">$Nasdaq100 Bull 3X ETF(TQQQ)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TQQQ\">$Nasdaq100 Bull 3X ETF(TQQQ)$</a>","text":"$Nasdaq100 Bull 3X ETF(TQQQ)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9980584355","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":154,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9998270183,"gmtCreate":1661015687145,"gmtModify":1676536439238,"author":{"id":"4114404437468532","authorId":"4114404437468532","name":"TG88","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f6b3493953d21c55a7dc72065e32a4ef","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4114404437468532","authorIdStr":"4114404437468532"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"tiok","listText":"tiok","text":"tiok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9998270183","repostId":"1157981129","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1157981129","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1660959931,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1157981129?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-20 09:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here Are the Signs That the Bear-Market Rally in Stocks Won’t Last Long – Citi","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157981129","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The size and duration of the bear-market rally is already in line with what is typical, suggesting t","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The size and duration of the bear-market rally is already in line with what is typical, suggesting the bounce is behind us: Citigroup</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48c9ed4762e8711b6ec699fade11e18b\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"524\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>The current bear seems mature? GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p>U.S. stocks have clawed back much of their losses from the first half of the year, but the three major indexes tumbled this week under reviving fears about interest rate rises by the Federal Reserve, and there are signs that the bulk of the bear-market rally is already behind us, said Citigroup’s analysts.</p><p>According to strategists at Citi Research, the current bear-market rally is almost in line with the length of an average bear-market bounce, and sentiment has already improved as much as it typically does during regular bear-market rallies, which would suggest a possible end to the rally relatively soon.</p><p>“Bear market rallies are often sentiment driven, as the market just becomes too bearish,” wrote Citi Research strategists led by Dirk Willer, the managing director and head of emerging market strategy, in a note on Thursday. “More fundamentally, many bear-market rallies are driven by hopes that the Fed comes to the rescue. The current one is no different, as the Fed pivot narrative has been an important catalyst.”</p><p>In particular, the chart below shows that the AAII bull-bear indicator, one of the closely-watched investor sentiment surveys, is almost back to levels where bear market rallies peak out, with expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increasing 1.2 percentage points to 33.3% in the week of August 15, while the bearish sentiment increased 0.5 percentage points to 37.2%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0778f6e5ac7376df8068417b41f6547\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"448\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>SOURCE: CITI RESEARCH, BLOOMBERG</span></p><p>Meanwhile, the SKEW index for the S&amp;P 500, which measures the difference between the cost of derivatives that protect against market drops and the right to benefit from a rally, normalized almost as much as it does in the median bear market rally (see chart below), said Citi Research. The index can be a proxy for investor sentiment and volatility.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/375f2ff2c6b5dcaf399914aded2b7ef9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"443\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>SOURCE: CITI RESEARCH, BLOOMBERG</span></p><p>Federal Reserve officials in July agreed that it was necessary to move their benchmark interest rate high enough to slow the economy to combat high inflation, while raising concerns that they may tighten the stance of monetary policy by more than necessary, according to minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s July 26-27 meeting released Wednesday.</p><p>After the release of minutes of the meeting, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said he is leaning toward another large rate rise of 75 basis points at the central bank’s September meeting. Meanwhile, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said the Fed “will do what it takes” to drive inflation back toward its 2% target, according to a Bloomberg report, while Reuters reported that Barkin saying the Fed’s efforts needn’t be “calamitous.”</p><p>According to Citi Research, the bear-market rally refers to a bounce equal to or larger than 10% that takes place between the peak and the trough. “If a new low is made after a 10% rally, the next rally of more than 10% is a separate bear market rally (or a bull market, if no new lows are made subsequently),” wrote strategists.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 was up 15.4% from its 52-week low of 3666.77 on June 16, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 12.9%, and the NASDAQ Composite jumped 19.4% since their mid-June lows, according to Dow Jones Market Data. In total, Citigroup noted three indexes have experienced a 17% rally in the past 42 trading days since June 16.</p><p>U.S. stocks finished the week sharply lower.The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 292.30 points, or 0.9%, to finish at 33,706.74. . The S&amp;P 500 was down 55.26 points, or 1.3%, to finish at 4,228.48. The Nasdaq Composite decreased 260.13 points, or 2.0%, to 12,705.22.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here Are the Signs That the Bear-Market Rally in Stocks Won’t Last Long – Citi</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere Are the Signs That the Bear-Market Rally in Stocks Won’t Last Long – Citi\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-20 09:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/here-are-the-signs-that-the-bear-market-rally-in-stocks-wont-last-long-citi-11660937380?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The size and duration of the bear-market rally is already in line with what is typical, suggesting the bounce is behind us: CitigroupThe current bear seems mature? GETTY IMAGESU.S. stocks have clawed ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/here-are-the-signs-that-the-bear-market-rally-in-stocks-wont-last-long-citi-11660937380?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/here-are-the-signs-that-the-bear-market-rally-in-stocks-wont-last-long-citi-11660937380?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157981129","content_text":"The size and duration of the bear-market rally is already in line with what is typical, suggesting the bounce is behind us: CitigroupThe current bear seems mature? GETTY IMAGESU.S. stocks have clawed back much of their losses from the first half of the year, but the three major indexes tumbled this week under reviving fears about interest rate rises by the Federal Reserve, and there are signs that the bulk of the bear-market rally is already behind us, said Citigroup’s analysts.According to strategists at Citi Research, the current bear-market rally is almost in line with the length of an average bear-market bounce, and sentiment has already improved as much as it typically does during regular bear-market rallies, which would suggest a possible end to the rally relatively soon.“Bear market rallies are often sentiment driven, as the market just becomes too bearish,” wrote Citi Research strategists led by Dirk Willer, the managing director and head of emerging market strategy, in a note on Thursday. “More fundamentally, many bear-market rallies are driven by hopes that the Fed comes to the rescue. The current one is no different, as the Fed pivot narrative has been an important catalyst.”In particular, the chart below shows that the AAII bull-bear indicator, one of the closely-watched investor sentiment surveys, is almost back to levels where bear market rallies peak out, with expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increasing 1.2 percentage points to 33.3% in the week of August 15, while the bearish sentiment increased 0.5 percentage points to 37.2%.SOURCE: CITI RESEARCH, BLOOMBERGMeanwhile, the SKEW index for the S&P 500, which measures the difference between the cost of derivatives that protect against market drops and the right to benefit from a rally, normalized almost as much as it does in the median bear market rally (see chart below), said Citi Research. The index can be a proxy for investor sentiment and volatility.SOURCE: CITI RESEARCH, BLOOMBERGFederal Reserve officials in July agreed that it was necessary to move their benchmark interest rate high enough to slow the economy to combat high inflation, while raising concerns that they may tighten the stance of monetary policy by more than necessary, according to minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s July 26-27 meeting released Wednesday.After the release of minutes of the meeting, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said he is leaning toward another large rate rise of 75 basis points at the central bank’s September meeting. Meanwhile, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said the Fed “will do what it takes” to drive inflation back toward its 2% target, according to a Bloomberg report, while Reuters reported that Barkin saying the Fed’s efforts needn’t be “calamitous.”According to Citi Research, the bear-market rally refers to a bounce equal to or larger than 10% that takes place between the peak and the trough. “If a new low is made after a 10% rally, the next rally of more than 10% is a separate bear market rally (or a bull market, if no new lows are made subsequently),” wrote strategists.The S&P 500 was up 15.4% from its 52-week low of 3666.77 on June 16, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 12.9%, and the NASDAQ Composite jumped 19.4% since their mid-June lows, according to Dow Jones Market Data. In total, Citigroup noted three indexes have experienced a 17% rally in the past 42 trading days since June 16.U.S. stocks finished the week sharply lower.The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 292.30 points, or 0.9%, to finish at 33,706.74. . The S&P 500 was down 55.26 points, or 1.3%, to finish at 4,228.48. The Nasdaq Composite decreased 260.13 points, or 2.0%, to 12,705.22.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":83,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9999506185,"gmtCreate":1660544399349,"gmtModify":1676533741699,"author":{"id":"4114404437468532","authorId":"4114404437468532","name":"TG88","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f6b3493953d21c55a7dc72065e32a4ef","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4114404437468532","authorIdStr":"4114404437468532"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiok","listText":"Tiok","text":"Tiok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9999506185","repostId":"1114787638","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114787638","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1660543284,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1114787638?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-15 14:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Don't Fear The Bears, Buy This Dip Aggressively","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114787638","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir's Q2 earnings release stunned some investors because its government revenue growth s","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir</a>&#39;s Q2 earnings release stunned some investors because its government revenue growth slowed dramatically. It also pulled its 30% revenue growth guidance through 2025.</li><li>But, management guided for $4.5B in revenue by 2025, which provides a precise performance yardstick for investors to assess. Furthermore, it implies a TTM revenue CAGR of over 30%.</li><li>So, we believe investors have been unduly concerned about a structural slowdown that management has not suggested in its commentary. Instead, it seems like a transitory pause in its sales cycle.</li><li>Accordingly, we reiterate our Buy rating on PLTR, as we are confident it has formed its long-term bottom in May. Investors should capitalize on downside volatility to add more positions.</li></ul><h3>Thesis</h3><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir Technologies Inc.&#39;s </a> Q2 earningsrelease highlighted that the slowdown in its government business was so significant that it indicated the company is facing challenges in clinching new deals. Is it surprising? We don&#39;t think so.</p><p>We have noted that Palantir&#39;s government segment has slowed since its growth rates peaked in late 2020. PLTR stock has also reflected the reality in its underlying metrics, given its battering as the company lapped challenging pandemic-driven comps. Coupled with increased uncertainties spurred by the current macroeconomic dynamics, it has led to an elongated sales cycle.</p><p>However, management reiterated its confidence that its long-term growth trajectory remains intact, as it proffered specific revenue guidance as a yardstick. Compared to its previously-communicated 30% revenue growth guidepost, we favor its updated framework, as it helps us to validate our valuation models better.</p><p>Furthermore, PLTR closed the week resiliently despite an underwhelming earnings release. Hence, we are confident that PLTR has formed its long-term bottom in May as the market looks to re-rate SaaS stocks broadly.</p><p>Accordingly, we reiterate our Buy rating on PLTR.</p><h3>Palantir&#39;s Growth Could Slow Through H2&#39;22, But Look Ahead</h3><p>We believe it&#39;s pretty clear from management&#39;s commentary that the company is facing a challenging sales cycle from its government customers, worsened by the macroeconomic headwinds. Therefore, we think it&#39;s only reasonable to posit that the impact could be felt through H2&#39;22.</p><p>Notwithstanding, management accentuated that it remains confident in its medium-term growth trajectory as CEO Alex Karp highlighted FY25 revenue guidance of $4.5B and expects to turn profitable.</p><p>However, Street analysts and some investors pointed out that Palantir stopped issuing its previous 30% revenue growth through 2025. Some analysts felt that withdrawing such guidance suggests that the company could be experiencing a structural slowdown in the medium-term. Morgan Stanley highlighted:</p><blockquote>While the pause in government bookings appears temporary, it is notable that management decided not to reiterate its 30% long-term growth target. This suggests that management believes the sales environment could prove challenging not just for the next few quarters but potentially beyond. -Barron&#39;s</blockquote><p>We find that perspective interesting because Karp provided clear revenue guidance of $4.5 through FY25, which is immensely helpful in validating our reverse cash flow valuation model. Also, Palantir reported a TTM revenue of $1.744B in FQ2. Therefore, Karp&#39;s guidance implies a revenue CAGR of 31% through FY25. So is withdrawing the initial 30% guidance really something that investors need to worry about? We certainly don&#39;t see anything amiss here.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fd072abbf4f6fc242cd2c3222cb934a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Palantir revenue change % and adjusted EBITDA change % consensus estimates (S&amp;P Cap IQ)</span></p><p>Notwithstanding, the consensus estimates (neutral) suggest that Palantir&#39;s revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth are expected to reach a nadir by FQ4 before recovering remarkably through 2023.</p><p>We believe the estimates seem credible, as Palantir has been reticent to provide more clarity on the timing of the deals with which it has come under pressure. Moreover, the current macro headwinds clouded the company&#39;s visibility further. But Karp emphasized that he doesn&#39;t expect the medium-term growth cadence to deviate, as he articulated:</p><blockquote>And that&#39;s why I am positing, internally and externally, the growth in US government over a multiyear period will be at least as good in the future as it was in the past. However, that 35% CAGR included a number of years where it was flat or even negative, and that&#39;s just the frustrating part about contracting at our level. The contracts are so big and meaty that you got to kind of wait. (Palantir FQ2&#39;22 earnings call)</blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b02033e0f92a0f312bd91b5a31bd23c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Palantir revenue change by segment % (Company filings)</span></p><p>As seen above, Palantir&#39;s government revenue growth decelerated further to 13.3% in FQ2. However, even if we factor in a challenging H2 given tough macros, Karp&#39;s guidance suggests that its growth should normalize markedly subsequently. Therefore, investors could potentially be adding positions at levels that could align with the bottoming of Palantir&#39;s government revenue growth over the next six months or so.</p><p>PLTR&#39;s Price Action Remains Constructive</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20fb894fe0840f778111f234325336f7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>PLTR price chart (monthly) (TradingView)</span></p><p>Furthermore, PLTR&#39;s post-Q2 sell down did not break the lows from July, as buying support returned remarkably, helping PLTR close robustly for the week.</p><p>Moreover, PLTR&#39;s bear trap (indicating the market denied further selling downside) in May on its long-term chart corroborates its long-term bottom, as PLTR has been gathering buying momentum.</p><p>Therefore, we are confident that investors should capitalize on any near-term downside volatility in PLTR to add more positions, as we believe it has already bottomed out. Hence, the upside risk/reward profile seems favorable.</p><h3>Is PLTR Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</h3><p><i>We reiterate our Buy rating on PLTR.</i></p><p>While we are cognizant of a marked deceleration in its revenue growth, we believe it&#39;s close to reaching a nadir (over the next six months) before reversing.</p><p>Our price action analysis also suggests that buying momentum has been returning to undergird its recovery since its May bottom as the market looks forward.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Don't Fear The Bears, Buy This Dip Aggressively</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Don't Fear The Bears, Buy This Dip Aggressively\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-15 14:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4534223-palantir-dont-fear-bears-buy-dip-aggressively><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryPalantir's Q2 earnings release stunned some investors because its government revenue growth slowed dramatically. It also pulled its 30% revenue growth guidance through 2025.But, management ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4534223-palantir-dont-fear-bears-buy-dip-aggressively\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4534223-palantir-dont-fear-bears-buy-dip-aggressively","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114787638","content_text":"SummaryPalantir's Q2 earnings release stunned some investors because its government revenue growth slowed dramatically. It also pulled its 30% revenue growth guidance through 2025.But, management guided for $4.5B in revenue by 2025, which provides a precise performance yardstick for investors to assess. Furthermore, it implies a TTM revenue CAGR of over 30%.So, we believe investors have been unduly concerned about a structural slowdown that management has not suggested in its commentary. Instead, it seems like a transitory pause in its sales cycle.Accordingly, we reiterate our Buy rating on PLTR, as we are confident it has formed its long-term bottom in May. Investors should capitalize on downside volatility to add more positions.ThesisPalantir Technologies Inc.'s  Q2 earningsrelease highlighted that the slowdown in its government business was so significant that it indicated the company is facing challenges in clinching new deals. Is it surprising? We don't think so.We have noted that Palantir's government segment has slowed since its growth rates peaked in late 2020. PLTR stock has also reflected the reality in its underlying metrics, given its battering as the company lapped challenging pandemic-driven comps. Coupled with increased uncertainties spurred by the current macroeconomic dynamics, it has led to an elongated sales cycle.However, management reiterated its confidence that its long-term growth trajectory remains intact, as it proffered specific revenue guidance as a yardstick. Compared to its previously-communicated 30% revenue growth guidepost, we favor its updated framework, as it helps us to validate our valuation models better.Furthermore, PLTR closed the week resiliently despite an underwhelming earnings release. Hence, we are confident that PLTR has formed its long-term bottom in May as the market looks to re-rate SaaS stocks broadly.Accordingly, we reiterate our Buy rating on PLTR.Palantir's Growth Could Slow Through H2'22, But Look AheadWe believe it's pretty clear from management's commentary that the company is facing a challenging sales cycle from its government customers, worsened by the macroeconomic headwinds. Therefore, we think it's only reasonable to posit that the impact could be felt through H2'22.Notwithstanding, management accentuated that it remains confident in its medium-term growth trajectory as CEO Alex Karp highlighted FY25 revenue guidance of $4.5B and expects to turn profitable.However, Street analysts and some investors pointed out that Palantir stopped issuing its previous 30% revenue growth through 2025. Some analysts felt that withdrawing such guidance suggests that the company could be experiencing a structural slowdown in the medium-term. Morgan Stanley highlighted:While the pause in government bookings appears temporary, it is notable that management decided not to reiterate its 30% long-term growth target. This suggests that management believes the sales environment could prove challenging not just for the next few quarters but potentially beyond. -Barron'sWe find that perspective interesting because Karp provided clear revenue guidance of $4.5 through FY25, which is immensely helpful in validating our reverse cash flow valuation model. Also, Palantir reported a TTM revenue of $1.744B in FQ2. Therefore, Karp's guidance implies a revenue CAGR of 31% through FY25. So is withdrawing the initial 30% guidance really something that investors need to worry about? We certainly don't see anything amiss here.Palantir revenue change % and adjusted EBITDA change % consensus estimates (S&P Cap IQ)Notwithstanding, the consensus estimates (neutral) suggest that Palantir's revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth are expected to reach a nadir by FQ4 before recovering remarkably through 2023.We believe the estimates seem credible, as Palantir has been reticent to provide more clarity on the timing of the deals with which it has come under pressure. Moreover, the current macro headwinds clouded the company's visibility further. But Karp emphasized that he doesn't expect the medium-term growth cadence to deviate, as he articulated:And that's why I am positing, internally and externally, the growth in US government over a multiyear period will be at least as good in the future as it was in the past. However, that 35% CAGR included a number of years where it was flat or even negative, and that's just the frustrating part about contracting at our level. The contracts are so big and meaty that you got to kind of wait. (Palantir FQ2'22 earnings call)Palantir revenue change by segment % (Company filings)As seen above, Palantir's government revenue growth decelerated further to 13.3% in FQ2. However, even if we factor in a challenging H2 given tough macros, Karp's guidance suggests that its growth should normalize markedly subsequently. Therefore, investors could potentially be adding positions at levels that could align with the bottoming of Palantir's government revenue growth over the next six months or so.PLTR's Price Action Remains ConstructivePLTR price chart (monthly) (TradingView)Furthermore, PLTR's post-Q2 sell down did not break the lows from July, as buying support returned remarkably, helping PLTR close robustly for the week.Moreover, PLTR's bear trap (indicating the market denied further selling downside) in May on its long-term chart corroborates its long-term bottom, as PLTR has been gathering buying momentum.Therefore, we are confident that investors should capitalize on any near-term downside volatility in PLTR to add more positions, as we believe it has already bottomed out. Hence, the upside risk/reward profile seems favorable.Is PLTR Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?We reiterate our Buy rating on PLTR.While we are cognizant of a marked deceleration in its revenue growth, we believe it's close to reaching a nadir (over the next six months) before reversing.Our price action analysis also suggests that buying momentum has been returning to undergird its recovery since its May bottom as the market looks forward.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":263,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9905005464,"gmtCreate":1659762082860,"gmtModify":1703766384297,"author":{"id":"4114404437468532","authorId":"4114404437468532","name":"TG88","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f6b3493953d21c55a7dc72065e32a4ef","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4114404437468532","authorIdStr":"4114404437468532"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiok","listText":"Tiok","text":"Tiok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9905005464","repostId":"1136904781","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1136904781","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1659757961,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1136904781?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-06 11:52","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Is Still Not A Buy, Here's Why","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136904781","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryBABA gained close to 7% in pre-market trading on August 4th after reporting stronger-than-exp","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>BABA gained close to 7% in pre-market trading on August 4th after reporting stronger-than-expected F1Q23 results.</li><li>Revenues were flat from the prior year, its slowest growth on record, but still better than earlier expectations for declines given the challenging operating environment during the June quarter.</li><li>However, the risks that were associated with Alibaba stock&#39;s selloff over the past ~2 years remain in a fluid state, with no signs of respite in sight.</li><li>Paired with added challenges from a faltering economy at home and overseas, the stock is in for further volatility over coming months.</li></ul><p>Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA,OTCPK:BABAF) stock rose close to 7% in post-earnings pre-market trading Thursday morning (August 4) after reporting better-than-expected results for its challenging fiscal first quarter. It beat consensus estimates on both revenues and EPS. Revenue came in at RMB 205.6 billion ($30.7 billion) for the June quarter, flat from the same period last year. Although it represented the slowest pace of growth on record, it was still welcomed by investors, as consensus had previously expected a decline for the first time in Alibaba&#39;s history due to sprawling city-wide lockdowns during April and May to stem the spread of COVID. Earnings for the June quarter also beat consensus estimates by $0.19 at $1.75, underscoring prudent cost controls amid inflationary pressure and increased costs of navigating through COVID disruptions.</p><p>Yet, sentiment on the Alibaba stock remains fragile. All of its gains from the May to July rally have been wiped out in recent weeks, with the stock now down close to 20% since the beginning of the year. Volatility remains the broad-based theme for Alibaba stock, as positive uptrends supported by signs of easing regulatory crackdowns, an improving COVID situation in China, and government stimulus to shore up the Chinese economy get torn down once again on news of heightened worries. The moderate uptrend in pre-market trading following a positive earnings surprise this morning also underscores market&#39;s cautions about the Alibaba stock.</p><p>While Alibaba&#39;s valuation appears attractive at current levels considering its robust balance sheet and still-dominant market share in e-commerce and cloud services in China, the investment continues to be overshadowed by risks that remain in a fluid situation. The fragility of Alibaba&#39;s rebounds observed over the past year underscores that the underlying risks to the investment continue to &#34;outweigh any favorable valuation.&#34;</p><p>Considering Alibaba&#39;s long-term fundamental growth and valuation multiple expansion outlook remains a big question mark, with all of its biggest underlying risks still in a highly fluid situation that exhibits no structural signs of improvement, the stock holds almost nothing to stand on its own against the added challenge from brewing broad-based macro headwinds. Alibaba could potentially trend lower in the near-term, as its core Chinese market and adjacent international markets grapple with a faltering macroeconomic backdrop, making it a high-risk investment pick despite what look like attractive valuations compared to peers in a similar business.</p><p><b>The Risks Are Still There</b></p><p>Alibaba stock&#39;s downturn began in late 2020, when heightening regulatory concerns drove a &#34;valuation reset&#34; in U.S.-listed Chinese equities. The situation has continued to take a turn for the worse since, as the regulatory headwinds started to take an effect on Alibaba&#39;s fundamental performance. The added impact from recent macroeconomic headwinds, spanning COVID disruptions in China, and a faltering domestic and global economy have only exacerbated the unfavorable results.</p><p><b>1. Regulatory Crackdowns</b></p><p>Recent signs of easing scrutiny by Chinese authorities have done little in salvaging the losses sustained by the broader cohort of U.S.-listed Chinese stocks, including Alibaba.</p><p>Despite repeated vows to support market stability and calls that the extended regulatory crackdowns on the private sector - especially internet companies - are nearing an end, the ensuing rally was short-lived as investors&#39; confidence buckled at the lack of concrete measures taken to date to salvage the carnage across Chinese equities.</p><p>And, despite recent optimism stemming from the end to high-profile probes, the regulatory risks remain prominent, with investors&#39; confidence also giving in. Markets continued to punish the stock at the first sign of regulatory weakness, as observed in recent declines following reports that Alibaba was levied a RMB 2.5 million($375,000) fine in early July for violating state rules on previous acquisition disclosures. Its cloud unit was recently investigated for association with one of the country&#39;s largest data breaches in history.</p><p>In addition to fines, the regulatory scrutiny surrounding Alibaba&#39;s business has also resulted in other adverse impacts to its fundamental performance. The company&#39;s cloud-computing unit, Alicloud, is slowly losing market share to its state-backed peers due to increasing national security concerns within the public sector. The unit&#39;s market share in China fell from 46% in 2019 to 37% in 2021, while state-backed peer Huawei&#39;s cloud market share doubled over the same period. Despite still being the largest public cloud service provider in China, Alicloud is no longer the preferred choice, threatening Alibaba&#39;s consolidated bottom-line performance. This is further corroborated by the deceleration in Alibaba&#39;s highly profitable cloud business observed in the fiscal first quarter - the segment&#39;s revenues only grew 10% y/y, the slowest pace on record.</p><p>The company has also reduced the size of its in-house investments unit. This is consistent with our earlier observations that it will only be a matter of time until Alibaba follows suit on its peers&#39; pre-emptive moves in unloading investments and shutting down internal deal departments. Investments have played a substantial role in the development of Alibaba&#39;s comprehensive Internet ecosystem and related success in past years. The recent downsizing of Alibaba&#39;s deals, team operations, and subsequent reduction on external investments are expected to drive significant adverse implications to its fundamental performance, in addition to slowed growth observed in recent quarters, adding further pressure to its valuation prospects down the road.</p><p>Yet, given the regulatory overhaul that has taken place over the past year, Alibaba&#39;s growth profile is unlikely to return to its explosive past, meaning any structural valuation upsides - which remains an area of high uncertainty - will be in moderation.</p><p><b>2. Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act (&#34;HFCAA&#34;)</b></p><p>Chinese equities also remain hostages to the HFCAA still, as the U.S. SEC steps up efforts to ensure all issuers in the U.S. stock exchange are subject to the same rules and regulatory treatment, including compliance with PCAOB audit inspection requirements. Mainland China and Hong Kong remain the only regions that have not yet complied with PCAOB audit inspection requests.</p><p>Alibaba was recently added to the rolling list of delinquent issuers whose auditors have failed to comply with PCAOB inspection requests, renewing investors&#39; fears of delisting risks for the stock. This has effectively started the clock on a three-year countdown for Alibaba, subjecting it to potential delisting from the NYSE if Chinese regulators cannot reach an agreement with the SEC and PCAOB on opening up the books of its domestic enterprises for inspection.</p><p>In the latest development, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (&#34;CSRC&#34;) is &#34;considering allowing U.S. officials to inspect documents on firms that do not possess sensitive data,&#34; but the agency would still like the ability to &#34;withhold sensitive data from inspection&#34; where applicable on the grounds of national security concerns. However, the offer still does not address the key reason for PCAOB audit inspections, which is the need to assess &#34;unredacted&#34; audit papers to ensure information reported in publicly disclosed financial statements are reasonable and free from material misstatements. Negotiations are ongoing, but the two countries &#34;have yet to reach a conclusive agreement on moving forward with the checks.&#34;</p><p>As mentioned in our initial coverages on Chinese equities, increasing institutional exits due to burgeoning regulatory and economic risks in China will continue to drive downward valuation adjustments to the cohort until a concrete resolution is reached. This is further corroborated by the recent pullback in foreign funding allocation towards Chinese equities as discussed in earlier sections, given &#34;increased skepticism among U.S. pension funds and endowments about the growing political and market risks of Asia&#39;s largest economy.&#34; Many foreign investors have abstained from committing new allocations to Chinese funds over the past 12 months, while &#34;Florida&#39;s pension system has halted new investments in China [altogether] as it assesses the risks.&#34; Investments in China stemming from U.S. dollar-denominated funds have fallen for the third consecutive quarter to $1.4 billion as of March 31, marking the lowest sum since 2018. As a result, the valuation multiples on Chinese equities are continuing to lose their luster as institutional investors remain on the side-lines.</p><p>While Alibaba&#39;s recent plans to pursue a primary listing in Hong Kong would open the door to incremental capital from mainland investors, related trading volumes remain a far cry from those in the U.S. - the average daily trading volume for Alibaba stocks in Hong Kong last month was &#34;about $700 million, compared to about $3.2 billion in the U.S.&#34; Although plans for a primary Hong Kong listing were viewed as a positive development by market participants, uncertainties over the Alibaba stock&#39;s future on the U.S. exchange remain a deterring factor to investors, considering declines observed last week following the announcement of the company&#39;s addition to the SEC&#39;s HFCAA shortlist as discussed in the earlier section.</p><p><b>3. Global Economic Uncertainties</b></p><p>Even internal improvements at Alibaba, including stronger-than-expected March quarter results, improved retail trends observed during the &#34;618&#34; bargain shopping event, and plans for a primary listing in Hong Kong by year-end, have been unsuccessful in staging a sustained rally for the stock.</p><p>This has added pressure to Alibaba&#39;s recent intentions to pivot its core Chinese commerce strategy from user acquisition to retention. Gross merchandise value - which measures the total value of transactions completed on Alibaba&#39;s core commerce platforms - in its core China commerce retail segment &#34;declined mid-single-digit y/y&#34; during the June quarter, with a meaningful drop in demand for discretionary goods accounting for the bulk of the setback. However, Alibaba&#39;s &#34;88VIP&#34; members - similar to Amazon Prime(AMZN) members - demonstrated strong purchasing behavior during the annual 618 shopping event, providing slight relief to the period&#39;s GMV decline thanks to budget-conscious bargain hunting as consumer wallets shrink.</p><p>The slowing global economy is also threatening to derail Alibaba&#39;s recent shift in focus to growing its international e-commerce platforms. Alibaba&#39;s international commerce retail segment revenues declined by 3% y/y, while order volumes declined by 4% y/y during the June quarter. Rising inflation and tightening central bank policies across Alibaba&#39;s major overseas markets, including the U.S. and Europe, have resulted in weakening consumer discretionary spending, disrupting Alibaba&#39;s plans to compensate for deceleration in its domestic commerce business with international growth. The challenges have been further exacerbated by the EU&#39;s removal of VAT exemptions on Chinese imports, which has directly impacted order volumes on AliExpress in recent quarters. Increasing competition in Southeast Asia is also thwarting Alibaba&#39;s ambitions in international e-commerce, as observed by consecutive quarters of deceleration in order volumes at Lazada.</p><p><b>Alibaba Stock - Fundamental and Valuation Update</b></p><p>Adjusting our previous forecast for Alibaba&#39;s actual June quarter financial results and recent developments in its operating environment as discussed in the foregoing analysis, the company is expected to generate consolidated revenues of RMB 901.5 billion ($135.2 billion) for fiscal 2023, which represents moderate y/y growth of 6%. The adjustments take into consideration the downward shift in performance at segments - namely, Alicloud and international retail commerce - that were supposed to uplift Alibaba&#39;s growth trajectory and offset the near-term uncertainties within its core Chinese retail commerce business. Specifically, the modest growth rate applied on fiscal 2023 revenue projections intend to reflect the near-term headwinds pertaining to fundamental impacts from ongoing regulatory challenges, as well as global macro uncertainties.</p><p>And over the longer-term, we expect the consolidated business to grow at a modest five-year CAGR of 4.6%, with Alicloud being the core driver. As mentioned in the foregoing analysis, the regulatory have materially transformed the explosive growth that Chinese big tech had once benefited from over the past few years. We expect any recovery to Alibaba&#39;s business over the longer-term to remain in moderation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b23ccb7b6e755cf0baabe2ebb626b35\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"167\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Alibaba Financial Forecast (RMB) (Author)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49f4dec53abacb221e7b157ebc0da0ec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"166\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Alibaba Financial Forecast (USD) (Author)</p><p>On the valuation front, we are maintaining a neutral stance on the stock with an expectation that the shares will remain in flux within the $100-range in the near-term. The valuation analysis assumes a perpetual growth rate in line with China&#39;s long-term GDP outlook considering Alibaba&#39;s growth profile as one of the largest big tech businesses in the world, adjusted by its current trading discount to U.S. counterparts like Amazon to account for the Chinese sector&#39;s risks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d51c258a7e0988da0491680f467d4a9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Alibaba Valuation Analysis (Author)</p><p>However, considering the near-term macro uncertainties across both its domestic Chinese market and international markets, the Alibaba stock could potentially trend lower and contest the $80-range again - this bear case figure implies a perpetual growth rate in line with China&#39;s long-term GDP outlook, further discounted by a downward valuation adjustment in the extent of those experienced by peers in the tech industry during the heights of their regulatory turmoil.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/478fbc394cf5dd111f0a9104aebcd4b0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"153\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Alibaba Valuation Sensitivity (Author)</p><p>Any structural momentum above the $100-range would require concrete evidence from both Alibaba and the Chinese government in maintaining resilience in the face of a faltering economy, and providing support for the private sector, respectively, in order to restore investors&#39; confidence in the performance of U.S.-listed Chinese equities.</p><p><b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p>In the ongoing tug-of-war between attractive valuations and a growing profile of underlying risks, the latter continues to take a stronger hold on the Alibaba stock. Reiterating our stance from previous discussions, volatility remains the broad-based theme for the Alibaba stock, with no concrete near-term catalysts to offer respite.</p><p>For one, ongoing regulatory and delisting headwinds are not only warranting a downward valuation reset compared to its U.S. counterparts, but also risking erosion into Alibaba&#39;s fundamental performance - a double-whammy to its market value.</p><p>Investors continue to yearn for concrete resolutions to the challenging external environment for Chinese equities. However, this is likely still a while away, and even then, any upside recovery will be in moderation given that the old days of sprawling growth are likely no more.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Is Still Not A Buy, Here's Why</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Is Still Not A Buy, Here's Why\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-06 11:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4529653-alibaba-is-still-not-a-buy-heres-why?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A71><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryBABA gained close to 7% in pre-market trading on August 4th after reporting stronger-than-expected F1Q23 results.Revenues were flat from the prior year, its slowest growth on record, but still ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4529653-alibaba-is-still-not-a-buy-heres-why?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A71\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4529653-alibaba-is-still-not-a-buy-heres-why?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A71","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136904781","content_text":"SummaryBABA gained close to 7% in pre-market trading on August 4th after reporting stronger-than-expected F1Q23 results.Revenues were flat from the prior year, its slowest growth on record, but still better than earlier expectations for declines given the challenging operating environment during the June quarter.However, the risks that were associated with Alibaba stock's selloff over the past ~2 years remain in a fluid state, with no signs of respite in sight.Paired with added challenges from a faltering economy at home and overseas, the stock is in for further volatility over coming months.Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA,OTCPK:BABAF) stock rose close to 7% in post-earnings pre-market trading Thursday morning (August 4) after reporting better-than-expected results for its challenging fiscal first quarter. It beat consensus estimates on both revenues and EPS. Revenue came in at RMB 205.6 billion ($30.7 billion) for the June quarter, flat from the same period last year. Although it represented the slowest pace of growth on record, it was still welcomed by investors, as consensus had previously expected a decline for the first time in Alibaba's history due to sprawling city-wide lockdowns during April and May to stem the spread of COVID. Earnings for the June quarter also beat consensus estimates by $0.19 at $1.75, underscoring prudent cost controls amid inflationary pressure and increased costs of navigating through COVID disruptions.Yet, sentiment on the Alibaba stock remains fragile. All of its gains from the May to July rally have been wiped out in recent weeks, with the stock now down close to 20% since the beginning of the year. Volatility remains the broad-based theme for Alibaba stock, as positive uptrends supported by signs of easing regulatory crackdowns, an improving COVID situation in China, and government stimulus to shore up the Chinese economy get torn down once again on news of heightened worries. The moderate uptrend in pre-market trading following a positive earnings surprise this morning also underscores market's cautions about the Alibaba stock.While Alibaba's valuation appears attractive at current levels considering its robust balance sheet and still-dominant market share in e-commerce and cloud services in China, the investment continues to be overshadowed by risks that remain in a fluid situation. The fragility of Alibaba's rebounds observed over the past year underscores that the underlying risks to the investment continue to \"outweigh any favorable valuation.\"Considering Alibaba's long-term fundamental growth and valuation multiple expansion outlook remains a big question mark, with all of its biggest underlying risks still in a highly fluid situation that exhibits no structural signs of improvement, the stock holds almost nothing to stand on its own against the added challenge from brewing broad-based macro headwinds. Alibaba could potentially trend lower in the near-term, as its core Chinese market and adjacent international markets grapple with a faltering macroeconomic backdrop, making it a high-risk investment pick despite what look like attractive valuations compared to peers in a similar business.The Risks Are Still ThereAlibaba stock's downturn began in late 2020, when heightening regulatory concerns drove a \"valuation reset\" in U.S.-listed Chinese equities. The situation has continued to take a turn for the worse since, as the regulatory headwinds started to take an effect on Alibaba's fundamental performance. The added impact from recent macroeconomic headwinds, spanning COVID disruptions in China, and a faltering domestic and global economy have only exacerbated the unfavorable results.1. Regulatory CrackdownsRecent signs of easing scrutiny by Chinese authorities have done little in salvaging the losses sustained by the broader cohort of U.S.-listed Chinese stocks, including Alibaba.Despite repeated vows to support market stability and calls that the extended regulatory crackdowns on the private sector - especially internet companies - are nearing an end, the ensuing rally was short-lived as investors' confidence buckled at the lack of concrete measures taken to date to salvage the carnage across Chinese equities.And, despite recent optimism stemming from the end to high-profile probes, the regulatory risks remain prominent, with investors' confidence also giving in. Markets continued to punish the stock at the first sign of regulatory weakness, as observed in recent declines following reports that Alibaba was levied a RMB 2.5 million($375,000) fine in early July for violating state rules on previous acquisition disclosures. Its cloud unit was recently investigated for association with one of the country's largest data breaches in history.In addition to fines, the regulatory scrutiny surrounding Alibaba's business has also resulted in other adverse impacts to its fundamental performance. The company's cloud-computing unit, Alicloud, is slowly losing market share to its state-backed peers due to increasing national security concerns within the public sector. The unit's market share in China fell from 46% in 2019 to 37% in 2021, while state-backed peer Huawei's cloud market share doubled over the same period. Despite still being the largest public cloud service provider in China, Alicloud is no longer the preferred choice, threatening Alibaba's consolidated bottom-line performance. This is further corroborated by the deceleration in Alibaba's highly profitable cloud business observed in the fiscal first quarter - the segment's revenues only grew 10% y/y, the slowest pace on record.The company has also reduced the size of its in-house investments unit. This is consistent with our earlier observations that it will only be a matter of time until Alibaba follows suit on its peers' pre-emptive moves in unloading investments and shutting down internal deal departments. Investments have played a substantial role in the development of Alibaba's comprehensive Internet ecosystem and related success in past years. The recent downsizing of Alibaba's deals, team operations, and subsequent reduction on external investments are expected to drive significant adverse implications to its fundamental performance, in addition to slowed growth observed in recent quarters, adding further pressure to its valuation prospects down the road.Yet, given the regulatory overhaul that has taken place over the past year, Alibaba's growth profile is unlikely to return to its explosive past, meaning any structural valuation upsides - which remains an area of high uncertainty - will be in moderation.2. Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act (\"HFCAA\")Chinese equities also remain hostages to the HFCAA still, as the U.S. SEC steps up efforts to ensure all issuers in the U.S. stock exchange are subject to the same rules and regulatory treatment, including compliance with PCAOB audit inspection requirements. Mainland China and Hong Kong remain the only regions that have not yet complied with PCAOB audit inspection requests.Alibaba was recently added to the rolling list of delinquent issuers whose auditors have failed to comply with PCAOB inspection requests, renewing investors' fears of delisting risks for the stock. This has effectively started the clock on a three-year countdown for Alibaba, subjecting it to potential delisting from the NYSE if Chinese regulators cannot reach an agreement with the SEC and PCAOB on opening up the books of its domestic enterprises for inspection.In the latest development, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (\"CSRC\") is \"considering allowing U.S. officials to inspect documents on firms that do not possess sensitive data,\" but the agency would still like the ability to \"withhold sensitive data from inspection\" where applicable on the grounds of national security concerns. However, the offer still does not address the key reason for PCAOB audit inspections, which is the need to assess \"unredacted\" audit papers to ensure information reported in publicly disclosed financial statements are reasonable and free from material misstatements. Negotiations are ongoing, but the two countries \"have yet to reach a conclusive agreement on moving forward with the checks.\"As mentioned in our initial coverages on Chinese equities, increasing institutional exits due to burgeoning regulatory and economic risks in China will continue to drive downward valuation adjustments to the cohort until a concrete resolution is reached. This is further corroborated by the recent pullback in foreign funding allocation towards Chinese equities as discussed in earlier sections, given \"increased skepticism among U.S. pension funds and endowments about the growing political and market risks of Asia's largest economy.\" Many foreign investors have abstained from committing new allocations to Chinese funds over the past 12 months, while \"Florida's pension system has halted new investments in China [altogether] as it assesses the risks.\" Investments in China stemming from U.S. dollar-denominated funds have fallen for the third consecutive quarter to $1.4 billion as of March 31, marking the lowest sum since 2018. As a result, the valuation multiples on Chinese equities are continuing to lose their luster as institutional investors remain on the side-lines.While Alibaba's recent plans to pursue a primary listing in Hong Kong would open the door to incremental capital from mainland investors, related trading volumes remain a far cry from those in the U.S. - the average daily trading volume for Alibaba stocks in Hong Kong last month was \"about $700 million, compared to about $3.2 billion in the U.S.\" Although plans for a primary Hong Kong listing were viewed as a positive development by market participants, uncertainties over the Alibaba stock's future on the U.S. exchange remain a deterring factor to investors, considering declines observed last week following the announcement of the company's addition to the SEC's HFCAA shortlist as discussed in the earlier section.3. Global Economic UncertaintiesEven internal improvements at Alibaba, including stronger-than-expected March quarter results, improved retail trends observed during the \"618\" bargain shopping event, and plans for a primary listing in Hong Kong by year-end, have been unsuccessful in staging a sustained rally for the stock.This has added pressure to Alibaba's recent intentions to pivot its core Chinese commerce strategy from user acquisition to retention. Gross merchandise value - which measures the total value of transactions completed on Alibaba's core commerce platforms - in its core China commerce retail segment \"declined mid-single-digit y/y\" during the June quarter, with a meaningful drop in demand for discretionary goods accounting for the bulk of the setback. However, Alibaba's \"88VIP\" members - similar to Amazon Prime(AMZN) members - demonstrated strong purchasing behavior during the annual 618 shopping event, providing slight relief to the period's GMV decline thanks to budget-conscious bargain hunting as consumer wallets shrink.The slowing global economy is also threatening to derail Alibaba's recent shift in focus to growing its international e-commerce platforms. Alibaba's international commerce retail segment revenues declined by 3% y/y, while order volumes declined by 4% y/y during the June quarter. Rising inflation and tightening central bank policies across Alibaba's major overseas markets, including the U.S. and Europe, have resulted in weakening consumer discretionary spending, disrupting Alibaba's plans to compensate for deceleration in its domestic commerce business with international growth. The challenges have been further exacerbated by the EU's removal of VAT exemptions on Chinese imports, which has directly impacted order volumes on AliExpress in recent quarters. Increasing competition in Southeast Asia is also thwarting Alibaba's ambitions in international e-commerce, as observed by consecutive quarters of deceleration in order volumes at Lazada.Alibaba Stock - Fundamental and Valuation UpdateAdjusting our previous forecast for Alibaba's actual June quarter financial results and recent developments in its operating environment as discussed in the foregoing analysis, the company is expected to generate consolidated revenues of RMB 901.5 billion ($135.2 billion) for fiscal 2023, which represents moderate y/y growth of 6%. The adjustments take into consideration the downward shift in performance at segments - namely, Alicloud and international retail commerce - that were supposed to uplift Alibaba's growth trajectory and offset the near-term uncertainties within its core Chinese retail commerce business. Specifically, the modest growth rate applied on fiscal 2023 revenue projections intend to reflect the near-term headwinds pertaining to fundamental impacts from ongoing regulatory challenges, as well as global macro uncertainties.And over the longer-term, we expect the consolidated business to grow at a modest five-year CAGR of 4.6%, with Alicloud being the core driver. As mentioned in the foregoing analysis, the regulatory have materially transformed the explosive growth that Chinese big tech had once benefited from over the past few years. We expect any recovery to Alibaba's business over the longer-term to remain in moderation.Alibaba Financial Forecast (RMB) (Author)Alibaba Financial Forecast (USD) (Author)On the valuation front, we are maintaining a neutral stance on the stock with an expectation that the shares will remain in flux within the $100-range in the near-term. The valuation analysis assumes a perpetual growth rate in line with China's long-term GDP outlook considering Alibaba's growth profile as one of the largest big tech businesses in the world, adjusted by its current trading discount to U.S. counterparts like Amazon to account for the Chinese sector's risks.Alibaba Valuation Analysis (Author)However, considering the near-term macro uncertainties across both its domestic Chinese market and international markets, the Alibaba stock could potentially trend lower and contest the $80-range again - this bear case figure implies a perpetual growth rate in line with China's long-term GDP outlook, further discounted by a downward valuation adjustment in the extent of those experienced by peers in the tech industry during the heights of their regulatory turmoil.Alibaba Valuation Sensitivity (Author)Any structural momentum above the $100-range would require concrete evidence from both Alibaba and the Chinese government in maintaining resilience in the face of a faltering economy, and providing support for the private sector, respectively, in order to restore investors' confidence in the performance of U.S.-listed Chinese equities.Final ThoughtsIn the ongoing tug-of-war between attractive valuations and a growing profile of underlying risks, the latter continues to take a stronger hold on the Alibaba stock. Reiterating our stance from previous discussions, volatility remains the broad-based theme for the Alibaba stock, with no concrete near-term catalysts to offer respite.For one, ongoing regulatory and delisting headwinds are not only warranting a downward valuation reset compared to its U.S. counterparts, but also risking erosion into Alibaba's fundamental performance - a double-whammy to its market value.Investors continue to yearn for concrete resolutions to the challenging external environment for Chinese equities. However, this is likely still a while away, and even then, any upside recovery will be in moderation given that the old days of sprawling growth are likely no more.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":308,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}