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- PoochPooch
  ·2023-02-08
  The title of this article should read "Powell Says Further Rate Hikes Needed and Markets Say Beat It".
  Powell Says Further Rate Hikes Needed and Markets Take Heed
  Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stuck to his message that interest rates need to keep rising to
  Powell Says Further Rate Hikes Needed and Markets Take Heed
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- PoochPooch
  ·2023-02-05
  Well... The market wasn't so forgiving when Tesla didn't quite meet the Q3 expectations and now it's Q4 earning season, everything is all good?
  The Stock-Market Rally Survived a Confusing Week. Here's What Comes Next
  A key point of conflict requires resolutionInvestors can be excused for feeling a sense of confusion
  The Stock-Market Rally Survived a Confusing Week. Here's What Comes Next
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title of this article should read \"Powell Says Further Rate Hikes Needed and Markets Say Beat It\".","listText":"The title of this article should read \"Powell Says Further Rate Hikes Needed and Markets Say Beat It\".","text":"The title of this article should read \"Powell Says Further Rate Hikes Needed and Markets Say Beat It\".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955771626","repostId":"1187913650","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1187913650","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1675808878,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1187913650?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-02-08 06:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Powell Says Further Rate Hikes Needed and Markets Take Heed","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187913650","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stuck to his message that interest rates need to keep rising to ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stuck to his message that interest rates need to keep rising to quash inflation and this time, the bond market listened.</p><p>In particular, Powell floated the idea during an event in Washington on Tuesday that borrowing costs may reach a higher peak than traders and policymakers anticipate.</p><p>The talk was Powell’s first since last Wednesday, following the Fed’s decision to raise rates by a quarter point, when markets shook off his warning that rates were headed up and rallied anyway. The chair offered similar words again but, in the aftermath of a red-hot January employment report, they hit home harder.</p><p>“We think we are going to need to do further rate increases,” Powell told David Rubenstein during a question-and-answer session at the Economic Club of Washington. “The labor market is extraordinarily strong.”</p><p>If the job situation remains very hot, “it may well be the case that we have to do more,” he said.</p><p>Much stronger than expected US government data on Friday showed employers added 517,000 new workers in January while unemployment fell to 3.4%, the lowest rate since 1969. Powell said the report “shows you why we think this will be a process that takes a significant period of time.”</p><p>Bonds sold off after an initial rally as the Fed chair opened the door to a higher peak rate in 2023 if the job market doesn’t start cooling. US stocks also backtracked as Powell spoke but closed the session higher.</p><p>His remarks suggest that the 5.1% interest-rate peak forecast by officials in December, according to their median projection, is a soft ceiling. Powell sounded willing to follow the data and move higher if necessary.</p><p>The Federal Open Market Committee lifted its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point to a range of 4.5% to 4.75% last week. The smaller move followed a half-point increase in December and four jumbo-sized 75 basis-point hikes prior to that.</p><p>A string of milder readings on price pressures has fanned optimism that the Fed was winning the battle against inflation that last year reached the highest level in four decades. But officials say they are determined not to declare victory prematurely.</p><p>January’s consumer price report could cool by less than expected, underscoring the need for the Fed to push ahead with rate hikes in march and May, said Omair Sharif at Inflation Insights in Sacramento.</p><p>“There are still plenty of hurdles on the horizon for inflation,” he said. “You will see some repricing here” as investors adjust to how high they expect the Fed to lift borrowing costs.</p><p>Investors, responding to January’s sizzling employment report, now expect rate to rise to just above 5%, similar to what Fed officials forecast in December.</p><p>Powell has argued that easing pressure in the labor market is part of the answer to cooling off inflation in core services, excluding housing, a measure he has highlighted.</p><p><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/63c4b2e2c2cc020c8103a02f1107db30\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>U.S. central bankers were caught off guard by a rapid rise in prices in the final quarter of 2021. Inflation, by their preferred measure, rose 5% in the 12 months through December, far above their 2% target.</p><p>While some measures of inflation have cooled in recent months, Powell told reporters last week that officials need “substantially more evidence” to be confident that inflation is on a downward path.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Powell Says Further Rate Hikes Needed and Markets Take Heed</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell Says Further Rate Hikes Needed and Markets Take Heed\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-08 06:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-07/powell-says-further-rate-hikes-needed-amid-strong-labor-market><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stuck to his message that interest rates need to keep rising to quash inflation and this time, the bond market listened.In particular, Powell floated the idea ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-07/powell-says-further-rate-hikes-needed-amid-strong-labor-market\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-07/powell-says-further-rate-hikes-needed-amid-strong-labor-market","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187913650","content_text":"Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stuck to his message that interest rates need to keep rising to quash inflation and this time, the bond market listened.In particular, Powell floated the idea during an event in Washington on Tuesday that borrowing costs may reach a higher peak than traders and policymakers anticipate.The talk was Powell’s first since last Wednesday, following the Fed’s decision to raise rates by a quarter point, when markets shook off his warning that rates were headed up and rallied anyway. The chair offered similar words again but, in the aftermath of a red-hot January employment report, they hit home harder.“We think we are going to need to do further rate increases,” Powell told David Rubenstein during a question-and-answer session at the Economic Club of Washington. “The labor market is extraordinarily strong.”If the job situation remains very hot, “it may well be the case that we have to do more,” he said.Much stronger than expected US government data on Friday showed employers added 517,000 new workers in January while unemployment fell to 3.4%, the lowest rate since 1969. Powell said the report “shows you why we think this will be a process that takes a significant period of time.”Bonds sold off after an initial rally as the Fed chair opened the door to a higher peak rate in 2023 if the job market doesn’t start cooling. US stocks also backtracked as Powell spoke but closed the session higher.His remarks suggest that the 5.1% interest-rate peak forecast by officials in December, according to their median projection, is a soft ceiling. Powell sounded willing to follow the data and move higher if necessary.The Federal Open Market Committee lifted its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point to a range of 4.5% to 4.75% last week. The smaller move followed a half-point increase in December and four jumbo-sized 75 basis-point hikes prior to that.A string of milder readings on price pressures has fanned optimism that the Fed was winning the battle against inflation that last year reached the highest level in four decades. But officials say they are determined not to declare victory prematurely.January’s consumer price report could cool by less than expected, underscoring the need for the Fed to push ahead with rate hikes in march and May, said Omair Sharif at Inflation Insights in Sacramento.“There are still plenty of hurdles on the horizon for inflation,” he said. “You will see some repricing here” as investors adjust to how high they expect the Fed to lift borrowing costs.Investors, responding to January’s sizzling employment report, now expect rate to rise to just above 5%, similar to what Fed officials forecast in December.Powell has argued that easing pressure in the labor market is part of the answer to cooling off inflation in core services, excluding housing, a measure he has highlighted.U.S. central bankers were caught off guard by a rapid rise in prices in the final quarter of 2021. Inflation, by their preferred measure, rose 5% in the 12 months through December, far above their 2% target.While some measures of inflation have cooled in recent months, Powell told reporters last week that officials need “substantially more evidence” to be confident that inflation is on a downward path.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":145,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9955520146,"gmtCreate":1675576851585,"gmtModify":1676539008287,"author":{"id":"4129084801781542","authorId":"4129084801781542","name":"Pooch","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4129084801781542","authorIdStr":"4129084801781542"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Well... The market wasn't so forgiving when Tesla didn't quite meet the Q3 expectations and now it's Q4 earning season,&nbsp;everything is all good?&nbsp;","listText":"Well... The market wasn't so forgiving when Tesla didn't quite meet the Q3 expectations and now it's Q4 earning season,&nbsp;everything is all good?&nbsp;","text":"Well... The market wasn't so forgiving when Tesla didn't quite meet the Q3 expectations and now it's Q4 earning season, everything is all good?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":16,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955520146","repostId":"2308684441","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2308684441","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1675558051,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2308684441?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-02-05 08:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Stock-Market Rally Survived a Confusing Week. Here's What Comes Next","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2308684441","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"A key point of conflict requires resolutionInvestors can be excused for feeling a sense of confusion","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>A key point of conflict requires resolution</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d84acd0fff9a6d03a294f0091d5a09d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Investors can be excused for feeling a sense of confusion. GETTY IMAGES/ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p>Despite a Friday stumble, stocks ended a turbulent week with another round of solid gains, keeping 2023&#39;s young but robust stock-market rally very much alive.</p><p>But a cloud of confusion also sets over the market, and it will eventually need to be resolved, strategists said.</p><p>Stocks rose early in the week as traders continued to bet that the Federal Reserve won&#39;t follow through on its forecast to push the federal funds rate to a peak above 5% and hold it there, instead looking for cuts by year-end. Fed chief Jerome Powell pushed back against that expectation again on Wednesday, but a nuanced answer to a question about loosening financial conditions and an acknowledgment that the &#34;disinflationary process&#34; had begun convinced traders they remained right about the rate path.</p><p>On Friday, however, a blowout January jobs report, with the U.S. economy adding 517,000 jobs and the unemployment rate dropping to 3.4%, its lowest level since 1969, appeared to affirm Powell&#39;s position.</p><p>Stocks took a hit, even if they finished off session lows, with the Nasdaq Composite  booking a fifth straight weekly gain and the S&amp;P 500  achieving back-to-back weekly wins. The Dow Jones Industrial Average  suffered a 0.2% weekly fall.</p><p>&#34;It kind of leaves you shaking your head right now, doesn&#39;t it?&#34; asked Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors, in a phone interview.</p><p>At some point in the coming months there will need to be &#34;a reconciliation between what the markets think the Fed will do and what Powell says the Fed will do,&#34; Baird said.</p><p>The rally could continue for now, Baird said, but he argued it would be wise in the long run to take the Fed at face value. &#34;I think the overall tone of risk taking in the market right now is a little bit too optimistic.&#34;</p><p>Money-market traders did react to Friday&#39;s data. Fed funds futures on Friday afternoon reflected a 99.6% probability that the Fed would raise the target rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.75% to 5% at the conclusion of its next policy meeting, on March 22, up from an 82.7% probability on Thursday, according to the CME FedWatch tool.</p><p>For the Fed&#39;s May meeting, the market reflected a 61.3% chance of another quarter-point rise to 5% to 5.25%, the level the Fed has signaled is its expected high-water-mark rate. On Thursday, it saw just a 30% chance of a quarter-point rise in May. But markets still look for a cut by year-end.</p><p>Of course, one month&#39;s data do not represent the end of the argument. But unless January&#39;s labor-market strength turns out to be a blip, the hawks on the Fed are likely to dig in and keep rates higher for longer, said Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment strategist at BMO Wealth Management, in a phone interview.</p><p>For markets, the lack of a resolution to the long-simmering disconnect with the Fed could lead to a period of consolidation after an admittedly impressive start to 2023, he said.</p><p>Indeed, the momentum behind the market&#39;s rally could be set to continue. It&#39;s been led by tech and other growth stocks that were hammered in last year&#39;s market rout. Market watchers detect a sense of &#34;FOMO,&#34; or fear of missing out, is driving what some have termed a tech-stock &#34;meltup.&#34;</p><p>&#34;The impressive equity rally to start the year has caught cautious institutional investors, hedge funds, and strategists off guard. While overbought conditions are obvious, the near-universal level of skepticism among institutions provides a contrarian degree of support for continued strength,&#34; said Mark Hackett, chief of investment research at Nationwide, in a Friday note.</p><p>And then there&#39;s earnings season, which has so far seen results from around half of the S&amp;P 500.</p><p>Companies through Friday had reported lower earnings for the fourth quarter relative to the end of the previous week and relative to the end of the quarter.</p><p>The blended earnings decline (a combination of actual results for companies that have reported and estimated results for companies that have yet to report) for the fourth quarter was 5.3% through Friday, compared with an earnings decline of 5.1% last week and an earnings decline of 3.3% at the end of the fourth quarter, according to FactSet. If earnings come out negative for the quarter, it would be the first year-over-year decline since the third quarter of 2020.</p><p>When it comes to earnings, &#34;there&#39;s definitely been a mood of forgiveness in the market,&#34; said BMO&#39;s Ma.</p><p>&#34;I think the market just didn&#39;t want to see a disastrous earnings season,&#34; he said, noting expectations remain for weak earnings in the current quarter and next, with bulls looking into the second half of this year and even into 2024 to get on a better footing.</p><p>For the market, the main driver will remain data on inflation and wage growth, Ma said.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Stock-Market Rally Survived a Confusing Week. Here's What Comes Next</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Stock-Market Rally Survived a Confusing Week. Here's What Comes Next\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-02-05 08:47</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>A key point of conflict requires resolution</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d84acd0fff9a6d03a294f0091d5a09d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Investors can be excused for feeling a sense of confusion. GETTY IMAGES/ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p>Despite a Friday stumble, stocks ended a turbulent week with another round of solid gains, keeping 2023&#39;s young but robust stock-market rally very much alive.</p><p>But a cloud of confusion also sets over the market, and it will eventually need to be resolved, strategists said.</p><p>Stocks rose early in the week as traders continued to bet that the Federal Reserve won&#39;t follow through on its forecast to push the federal funds rate to a peak above 5% and hold it there, instead looking for cuts by year-end. Fed chief Jerome Powell pushed back against that expectation again on Wednesday, but a nuanced answer to a question about loosening financial conditions and an acknowledgment that the &#34;disinflationary process&#34; had begun convinced traders they remained right about the rate path.</p><p>On Friday, however, a blowout January jobs report, with the U.S. economy adding 517,000 jobs and the unemployment rate dropping to 3.4%, its lowest level since 1969, appeared to affirm Powell&#39;s position.</p><p>Stocks took a hit, even if they finished off session lows, with the Nasdaq Composite  booking a fifth straight weekly gain and the S&amp;P 500  achieving back-to-back weekly wins. The Dow Jones Industrial Average  suffered a 0.2% weekly fall.</p><p>&#34;It kind of leaves you shaking your head right now, doesn&#39;t it?&#34; asked Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors, in a phone interview.</p><p>At some point in the coming months there will need to be &#34;a reconciliation between what the markets think the Fed will do and what Powell says the Fed will do,&#34; Baird said.</p><p>The rally could continue for now, Baird said, but he argued it would be wise in the long run to take the Fed at face value. &#34;I think the overall tone of risk taking in the market right now is a little bit too optimistic.&#34;</p><p>Money-market traders did react to Friday&#39;s data. Fed funds futures on Friday afternoon reflected a 99.6% probability that the Fed would raise the target rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.75% to 5% at the conclusion of its next policy meeting, on March 22, up from an 82.7% probability on Thursday, according to the CME FedWatch tool.</p><p>For the Fed&#39;s May meeting, the market reflected a 61.3% chance of another quarter-point rise to 5% to 5.25%, the level the Fed has signaled is its expected high-water-mark rate. On Thursday, it saw just a 30% chance of a quarter-point rise in May. But markets still look for a cut by year-end.</p><p>Of course, one month&#39;s data do not represent the end of the argument. But unless January&#39;s labor-market strength turns out to be a blip, the hawks on the Fed are likely to dig in and keep rates higher for longer, said Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment strategist at BMO Wealth Management, in a phone interview.</p><p>For markets, the lack of a resolution to the long-simmering disconnect with the Fed could lead to a period of consolidation after an admittedly impressive start to 2023, he said.</p><p>Indeed, the momentum behind the market&#39;s rally could be set to continue. It&#39;s been led by tech and other growth stocks that were hammered in last year&#39;s market rout. Market watchers detect a sense of &#34;FOMO,&#34; or fear of missing out, is driving what some have termed a tech-stock &#34;meltup.&#34;</p><p>&#34;The impressive equity rally to start the year has caught cautious institutional investors, hedge funds, and strategists off guard. While overbought conditions are obvious, the near-universal level of skepticism among institutions provides a contrarian degree of support for continued strength,&#34; said Mark Hackett, chief of investment research at Nationwide, in a Friday note.</p><p>And then there&#39;s earnings season, which has so far seen results from around half of the S&amp;P 500.</p><p>Companies through Friday had reported lower earnings for the fourth quarter relative to the end of the previous week and relative to the end of the quarter.</p><p>The blended earnings decline (a combination of actual results for companies that have reported and estimated results for companies that have yet to report) for the fourth quarter was 5.3% through Friday, compared with an earnings decline of 5.1% last week and an earnings decline of 3.3% at the end of the fourth quarter, according to FactSet. If earnings come out negative for the quarter, it would be the first year-over-year decline since the third quarter of 2020.</p><p>When it comes to earnings, &#34;there&#39;s definitely been a mood of forgiveness in the market,&#34; said BMO&#39;s Ma.</p><p>&#34;I think the market just didn&#39;t want to see a disastrous earnings season,&#34; he said, noting expectations remain for weak earnings in the current quarter and next, with bulls looking into the second half of this year and even into 2024 to get on a better footing.</p><p>For the market, the main driver will remain data on inflation and wage growth, Ma said.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2308684441","content_text":"A key point of conflict requires resolutionInvestors can be excused for feeling a sense of confusion. GETTY IMAGES/ISTOCKPHOTODespite a Friday stumble, stocks ended a turbulent week with another round of solid gains, keeping 2023's young but robust stock-market rally very much alive.But a cloud of confusion also sets over the market, and it will eventually need to be resolved, strategists said.Stocks rose early in the week as traders continued to bet that the Federal Reserve won't follow through on its forecast to push the federal funds rate to a peak above 5% and hold it there, instead looking for cuts by year-end. Fed chief Jerome Powell pushed back against that expectation again on Wednesday, but a nuanced answer to a question about loosening financial conditions and an acknowledgment that the \"disinflationary process\" had begun convinced traders they remained right about the rate path.On Friday, however, a blowout January jobs report, with the U.S. economy adding 517,000 jobs and the unemployment rate dropping to 3.4%, its lowest level since 1969, appeared to affirm Powell's position.Stocks took a hit, even if they finished off session lows, with the Nasdaq Composite  booking a fifth straight weekly gain and the S&P 500  achieving back-to-back weekly wins. The Dow Jones Industrial Average  suffered a 0.2% weekly fall.\"It kind of leaves you shaking your head right now, doesn't it?\" asked Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors, in a phone interview.At some point in the coming months there will need to be \"a reconciliation between what the markets think the Fed will do and what Powell says the Fed will do,\" Baird said.The rally could continue for now, Baird said, but he argued it would be wise in the long run to take the Fed at face value. \"I think the overall tone of risk taking in the market right now is a little bit too optimistic.\"Money-market traders did react to Friday's data. Fed funds futures on Friday afternoon reflected a 99.6% probability that the Fed would raise the target rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.75% to 5% at the conclusion of its next policy meeting, on March 22, up from an 82.7% probability on Thursday, according to the CME FedWatch tool.For the Fed's May meeting, the market reflected a 61.3% chance of another quarter-point rise to 5% to 5.25%, the level the Fed has signaled is its expected high-water-mark rate. On Thursday, it saw just a 30% chance of a quarter-point rise in May. But markets still look for a cut by year-end.Of course, one month's data do not represent the end of the argument. But unless January's labor-market strength turns out to be a blip, the hawks on the Fed are likely to dig in and keep rates higher for longer, said Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment strategist at BMO Wealth Management, in a phone interview.For markets, the lack of a resolution to the long-simmering disconnect with the Fed could lead to a period of consolidation after an admittedly impressive start to 2023, he said.Indeed, the momentum behind the market's rally could be set to continue. It's been led by tech and other growth stocks that were hammered in last year's market rout. Market watchers detect a sense of \"FOMO,\" or fear of missing out, is driving what some have termed a tech-stock \"meltup.\"\"The impressive equity rally to start the year has caught cautious institutional investors, hedge funds, and strategists off guard. While overbought conditions are obvious, the near-universal level of skepticism among institutions provides a contrarian degree of support for continued strength,\" said Mark Hackett, chief of investment research at Nationwide, in a Friday note.And then there's earnings season, which has so far seen results from around half of the S&P 500.Companies through Friday had reported lower earnings for the fourth quarter relative to the end of the previous week and relative to the end of the quarter.The blended earnings decline (a combination of actual results for companies that have reported and estimated results for companies that have yet to report) for the fourth quarter was 5.3% through Friday, compared with an earnings decline of 5.1% last week and an earnings decline of 3.3% at the end of the fourth quarter, according to FactSet. If earnings come out negative for the quarter, it would be the first year-over-year decline since the third quarter of 2020.When it comes to earnings, \"there's definitely been a mood of forgiveness in the market,\" said BMO's Ma.\"I think the market just didn't want to see a disastrous earnings season,\" he said, noting expectations remain for weak earnings in the current quarter and next, with bulls looking into the second half of this year and even into 2024 to get on a better footing.For the market, the main driver will remain data on inflation and wage growth, Ma said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":252,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}