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- ciresmciresm
  ·11-05
  Bac
  Top Calls on Wall Street: Apple, Microsoft, Palantir, Eli Lilly, Broadcom and More
  Here are the biggest calls on Wall Street on Tuesday:Morgan Stanley reiterates Home Depot as overweightThe firm says it’s bullish ahead of earnings next week.“HD is a high-quality macro/housing play w
  Top Calls on Wall Street: Apple, Microsoft, Palantir, Eli Lilly, Broadcom and More
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- ciresmciresm
  ·01-19
  This guy says the opposite on Sound https://tigr.link/62vJ9I
  3 AI Stocks That Could Make You a Millionaire
  These stocks carry some risk but a lot of potential reward, too.
  3 AI Stocks That Could Make You a Millionaire
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- ciresmciresm
  ·2023-02-15
  Should have not listen to this😅
  Tesla Stock: Get Ready For A Sell-Off
  SummaryToday I see a fairly high risk of profit-taking in Tesla, Inc. stock and a further downward m
  Tesla Stock: Get Ready For A Sell-Off
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bullish ahead of earnings next week.</p><p>“HD is a high-quality macro/housing play with more limited downside risk in the near-term.”</p><h2 id=\"id_3671456642\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Bank of America initiates Ceribell as buy</h2><p>The firm says the neurological condition monitoring company has an impressive AI algorithm.</p><p>“We are initiating coverage on Ceribell (CBLL) with a Buy rating and a $32 PO.”</p><h2 id=\"id_3039978889\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Morgan Stanley reiterates Live Nation as overweight</h2><p>Morgan Stanley raised its price target on the stock to $140 per share from $120.</p><p>“OW LYV remains our preferred exposure to strong consumer demand for live events and concerts.”</p><h2 id=\"id_2475666424\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Morgan Stanley reiterates Eli Lilly as a top pick</h2><p>The firm says it’s sticking with Eli Lilly following the Obesity Week conference in San Antonio,</p><p>“While the GLP-1 class continues to dominate much of the commercial/pipeline development, at the conference there was increasing discussion about the next wave of mechanisms, including amylin.”</p><h2 id=\"id_1682733701\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Morgan Stanley reiterates Boeing as equal weight</h2><p>The firm says it sees the stock reacting favorably following news of the labor resolution.</p><p>“We expect Boeing’s stock to react positively to the labor resolution. We expect investor focus to shift toward execution, current regulatory constraints, and the supply chain following the stock’s reaction to the labor resolution.”</p><h2 id=\"id_1925472521\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Morgan Stanley upgrades Carvana to equal weight from underweight</h2><p>The firm raised its price target on the stock to $260 per share from $110 following earnings and says the Carvana bull case is starting to play out.</p><p>“Our previous bull case scenario is playing out: Carvana’s results were strong enough to materially increase our forecasts, the multiple and our rating.”</p><h2 id=\"id_2254325025\" style=\"text-align: start;\">JPMorgan initiates Upstream Bio as overweight</h2><p>JPMorgan says the biotech company is well positioned.</p><p>“We are initiating coverage of Upstream Bio with an Overweight rating and a Dec- 2025 price target of $38.”</p><h2 id=\"id_1526552924\" style=\"text-align: start;\">RBC reiterates Microsoft a outperform</h2><p>The firm says it’s more constructive on the stock after a visit to the company’s headquarters.</p><p>“We maintain our Outperform rating and $500 PT on Microsoft, following our campus visit with executives at the company’s headquarters in Redmond, WA.”</p><h2 id=\"id_1851147621\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Bank of America reiterates Broadcom as buy</h2><p>The firm says it’s sticking by shares of Broadcom.</p><p>“Broadcom has an extensive semiconductor product portfolio, which addresses applications within the wired infrastructure, wireless communications, enterprise storage, and industrial end markets.”</p><h2 id=\"id_2635604818\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Bank of America reiterates Apple as buy</h2><p>Bank of America says it sees “limited” impact to Apple earnings regardless of the Presidential outcome.</p><p>“We see a higher likelihood of new import tariffs if the Republicans control Congress and the Presidency. Either way, we would expect limited impact on Apple’s earnings.”</p><h2 id=\"id_4165559317\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Bank of America reiterates Palantir as buy</h2><p>The firm says Palantir is an AI “juggernaut” following earnings on Monday.</p><p>“We continue to view the adoption of PLTR’s AI-enabled products and reach in its early days, as more companies realize the time, resource, and cost savings possible. In our view, Palantir’s moat as the differentiated agnostic AI-enabler is only growing with each new use-case carrying compounding unit economics.”</p><h2 id=\"id_4154454820\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Bank of America reiterates Arista Networks as buy</h2><p>Bank of America says it sees share gains ahead for the networking equipment company.</p><p>“We raise our Arista PO to $455 from $380, still based on a 42.5x forward P/E multiple on the back of Meta and Microsoft’s strong capex commentary, reflecting the company’s growing opportunity in AI Ethernet networking buildouts.”</p><h2 id=\"id_1138027159\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Morgan Stanley upgrades Disc Medicine to overweight from equal weight</h2><p>The firm says it’s upgrading Disc after the biotech company got a series of regulatory updates on its Schizophrenia drug, Bitopertin.</p><p>“Bitopertin regulatory update restores our confidence in potential approval, with upside surprise of a likely faster timeline.”</p><h2 id=\"id_2243919971\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Bernstein initiates Eaton as outperform</h2><p>Bernstein said in its initiation of Eaton that the electric company is a beneficiary of growing electric demand in the years ahead.</p><p>“Electricity demand is entering an era of secular growth, the world is changing the way energy flows, and the infrastructure build-out to support these megatrends is in its early stages.”</p><h2 id=\"id_471088052\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Deutsche Bank downgrades Marqeta to sector weight from overweight</h2><p>Deutsche says there’s too much regulatory uncertainty surrounding the card issuing platform.</p><p>“Due to the regulatory overhang and client-specific headwinds facing MQ, we are moving to the sideline downgrading the shares to Hold and setting a $4 TP as we expect the confusion and uncertainty around MQ’s core embedded finance market to linger.”</p><h2 id=\"id_3310551225\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Bernstein upgrades eBay to outperform from market perform</h2><p>Bernstein said it sees an attractive entry point for the online e-commerce site.</p><p>“We are upgrading EBAY from Market-Perform to Outperform, maintaining our PT of $70. We couldn’t justify an upgrade when the stock was in the mid-to-high $60/share range, but we believe the recent pullback offers a better entry point.”</p><h2 id=\"id_281073042\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Jefferies initiates Alarm.com as buy</h2><p>Jefferies says the home security company has a “quality business.”</p><p>“ALRM has a durable growth profile and solid profitability.”</p><h2 id=\"id_1165879585\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Barclays initiates Celestica as overweight</h2><p>Barclays says the electronics manufacturing company is “uniquely” positioned.</p><p>“We are initiating coverage of Celestica with an OW rating and $91 price target.”</p><h2 id=\"id_1019715794\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Telsey downgrades Dollar Tree to market perform from outperform</h2><p>Telsey says it’s concerned about management changes.</p><p>“Downgrading DLTR to Market Perform Rating from Outperform: The departure of CEO Rick Dreiling reduces our confidence in the story and limits our visibility on the strategy and execution ahead.”</p><h2 id=\"id_4107069721\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Truist upgrades MasTec to buy from hold</h2><p>The firm says it’s bullish on the infrastructure construction company.</p><p>“While MTZ has been one of the best performers among our coverage year to date, we still believe there is a significant opportunity for the stock to re-rate as the top line and margin performance improves for the company’s Power Delivery, Clean Energy &amp; Infrastructure, and Communications segments.”</p><h2 id=\"id_4233586279\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Bank of America upgrades MDU Resources to buy from neutral</h2><p>The firm says growth is underappreciated at the construction company.</p><p>“We upgrade MDU Resources (MDU) to Buy from Neutral. After the spin-off of the company’s construction services business, which was completed on November 1, MDU shares traded down 4%. We now see an attractive opportunity, as shares now trade -10% below the value implied by our sum-of-the-parts valuation of the remaining portfolio.”</p><h2 id=\"id_789147726\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Morgan Stanley reinstates Krispy Kreme as equal weight</h2><p>Morgan Stanley says Krispy Kreme has a balanced risk/reward right now.</p><p>“MCD partnership an interesting catalyst to support expansion strategy. But not entirely unappreciated, in our view, and flow through to key metrics will take time to show.”</p><h2 id=\"id_298926469\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Bank of America upgrades Idacorp to buy from neutral</h2><p>The firm says it sees “outsized growth” for the electricity holding company.</p><p>“We upgrade IDA to Buy from Neutral. We apply the latest peer multiple of 15.5x vs 16.2x prior, to our refreshed FY26 estimate, increasing our PO 4% to $117 from $113. We see upside to the already outsized current growth forecast driven by large load growth forecasts and potential upside to generation/transmission spend at an attractive valuation.”</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Top Calls on Wall Street: Apple, Microsoft, Palantir, Eli Lilly, Broadcom and More</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTop Calls on Wall Street: Apple, Microsoft, Palantir, Eli Lilly, Broadcom and More\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-11-05 22:03</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Here are the biggest calls on Wall Street on Tuesday:</p><h2 id=\"id_1707325363\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Morgan Stanley reiterates Home Depot as overweight</h2><p>The firm says it’s bullish ahead of earnings next week.</p><p>“HD is a high-quality macro/housing play with more limited downside risk in the near-term.”</p><h2 id=\"id_3671456642\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Bank of America initiates Ceribell as buy</h2><p>The firm says the neurological condition monitoring company has an impressive AI algorithm.</p><p>“We are initiating coverage on Ceribell (CBLL) with a Buy rating and a $32 PO.”</p><h2 id=\"id_3039978889\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Morgan Stanley reiterates Live Nation as overweight</h2><p>Morgan Stanley raised its price target on the stock to $140 per share from $120.</p><p>“OW LYV remains our preferred exposure to strong consumer demand for live events and concerts.”</p><h2 id=\"id_2475666424\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Morgan Stanley reiterates Eli Lilly as a top pick</h2><p>The firm says it’s sticking with Eli Lilly following the Obesity Week conference in San Antonio,</p><p>“While the GLP-1 class continues to dominate much of the commercial/pipeline development, at the conference there was increasing discussion about the next wave of mechanisms, including amylin.”</p><h2 id=\"id_1682733701\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Morgan Stanley reiterates Boeing as equal weight</h2><p>The firm says it sees the stock reacting favorably following news of the labor resolution.</p><p>“We expect Boeing’s stock to react positively to the labor resolution. We expect investor focus to shift toward execution, current regulatory constraints, and the supply chain following the stock’s reaction to the labor resolution.”</p><h2 id=\"id_1925472521\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Morgan Stanley upgrades Carvana to equal weight from underweight</h2><p>The firm raised its price target on the stock to $260 per share from $110 following earnings and says the Carvana bull case is starting to play out.</p><p>“Our previous bull case scenario is playing out: Carvana’s results were strong enough to materially increase our forecasts, the multiple and our rating.”</p><h2 id=\"id_2254325025\" style=\"text-align: start;\">JPMorgan initiates Upstream Bio as overweight</h2><p>JPMorgan says the biotech company is well positioned.</p><p>“We are initiating coverage of Upstream Bio with an Overweight rating and a Dec- 2025 price target of $38.”</p><h2 id=\"id_1526552924\" style=\"text-align: start;\">RBC reiterates Microsoft a outperform</h2><p>The firm says it’s more constructive on the stock after a visit to the company’s headquarters.</p><p>“We maintain our Outperform rating and $500 PT on Microsoft, following our campus visit with executives at the company’s headquarters in Redmond, WA.”</p><h2 id=\"id_1851147621\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Bank of America reiterates Broadcom as buy</h2><p>The firm says it’s sticking by shares of Broadcom.</p><p>“Broadcom has an extensive semiconductor product portfolio, which addresses applications within the wired infrastructure, wireless communications, enterprise storage, and industrial end markets.”</p><h2 id=\"id_2635604818\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Bank of America reiterates Apple as buy</h2><p>Bank of America says it sees “limited” impact to Apple earnings regardless of the Presidential outcome.</p><p>“We see a higher likelihood of new import tariffs if the Republicans control Congress and the Presidency. Either way, we would expect limited impact on Apple’s earnings.”</p><h2 id=\"id_4165559317\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Bank of America reiterates Palantir as buy</h2><p>The firm says Palantir is an AI “juggernaut” following earnings on Monday.</p><p>“We continue to view the adoption of PLTR’s AI-enabled products and reach in its early days, as more companies realize the time, resource, and cost savings possible. In our view, Palantir’s moat as the differentiated agnostic AI-enabler is only growing with each new use-case carrying compounding unit economics.”</p><h2 id=\"id_4154454820\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Bank of America reiterates Arista Networks as buy</h2><p>Bank of America says it sees share gains ahead for the networking equipment company.</p><p>“We raise our Arista PO to $455 from $380, still based on a 42.5x forward P/E multiple on the back of Meta and Microsoft’s strong capex commentary, reflecting the company’s growing opportunity in AI Ethernet networking buildouts.”</p><h2 id=\"id_1138027159\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Morgan Stanley upgrades Disc Medicine to overweight from equal weight</h2><p>The firm says it’s upgrading Disc after the biotech company got a series of regulatory updates on its Schizophrenia drug, Bitopertin.</p><p>“Bitopertin regulatory update restores our confidence in potential approval, with upside surprise of a likely faster timeline.”</p><h2 id=\"id_2243919971\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Bernstein initiates Eaton as outperform</h2><p>Bernstein said in its initiation of Eaton that the electric company is a beneficiary of growing electric demand in the years ahead.</p><p>“Electricity demand is entering an era of secular growth, the world is changing the way energy flows, and the infrastructure build-out to support these megatrends is in its early stages.”</p><h2 id=\"id_471088052\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Deutsche Bank downgrades Marqeta to sector weight from overweight</h2><p>Deutsche says there’s too much regulatory uncertainty surrounding the card issuing platform.</p><p>“Due to the regulatory overhang and client-specific headwinds facing MQ, we are moving to the sideline downgrading the shares to Hold and setting a $4 TP as we expect the confusion and uncertainty around MQ’s core embedded finance market to linger.”</p><h2 id=\"id_3310551225\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Bernstein upgrades eBay to outperform from market perform</h2><p>Bernstein said it sees an attractive entry point for the online e-commerce site.</p><p>“We are upgrading EBAY from Market-Perform to Outperform, maintaining our PT of $70. We couldn’t justify an upgrade when the stock was in the mid-to-high $60/share range, but we believe the recent pullback offers a better entry point.”</p><h2 id=\"id_281073042\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Jefferies initiates Alarm.com as buy</h2><p>Jefferies says the home security company has a “quality business.”</p><p>“ALRM has a durable growth profile and solid profitability.”</p><h2 id=\"id_1165879585\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Barclays initiates Celestica as overweight</h2><p>Barclays says the electronics manufacturing company is “uniquely” positioned.</p><p>“We are initiating coverage of Celestica with an OW rating and $91 price target.”</p><h2 id=\"id_1019715794\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Telsey downgrades Dollar Tree to market perform from outperform</h2><p>Telsey says it’s concerned about management changes.</p><p>“Downgrading DLTR to Market Perform Rating from Outperform: The departure of CEO Rick Dreiling reduces our confidence in the story and limits our visibility on the strategy and execution ahead.”</p><h2 id=\"id_4107069721\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Truist upgrades MasTec to buy from hold</h2><p>The firm says it’s bullish on the infrastructure construction company.</p><p>“While MTZ has been one of the best performers among our coverage year to date, we still believe there is a significant opportunity for the stock to re-rate as the top line and margin performance improves for the company’s Power Delivery, Clean Energy &amp; Infrastructure, and Communications segments.”</p><h2 id=\"id_4233586279\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Bank of America upgrades MDU Resources to buy from neutral</h2><p>The firm says growth is underappreciated at the construction company.</p><p>“We upgrade MDU Resources (MDU) to Buy from Neutral. After the spin-off of the company’s construction services business, which was completed on November 1, MDU shares traded down 4%. We now see an attractive opportunity, as shares now trade -10% below the value implied by our sum-of-the-parts valuation of the remaining portfolio.”</p><h2 id=\"id_789147726\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Morgan Stanley reinstates Krispy Kreme as equal weight</h2><p>Morgan Stanley says Krispy Kreme has a balanced risk/reward right now.</p><p>“MCD partnership an interesting catalyst to support expansion strategy. But not entirely unappreciated, in our view, and flow through to key metrics will take time to show.”</p><h2 id=\"id_298926469\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Bank of America upgrades Idacorp to buy from neutral</h2><p>The firm says it sees “outsized growth” for the electricity holding company.</p><p>“We upgrade IDA to Buy from Neutral. We apply the latest peer multiple of 15.5x vs 16.2x prior, to our refreshed FY26 estimate, increasing our PO 4% to $117 from $113. We see upside to the already outsized current growth forecast driven by large load growth forecasts and potential upside to generation/transmission spend at an attractive valuation.”</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","MSFT":"微软","PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174446996","content_text":"Here are the biggest calls on Wall Street on Tuesday:Morgan Stanley reiterates Home Depot as overweightThe firm says it’s bullish ahead of earnings next week.“HD is a high-quality macro/housing play with more limited downside risk in the near-term.”Bank of America initiates Ceribell as buyThe firm says the neurological condition monitoring company has an impressive AI algorithm.“We are initiating coverage on Ceribell (CBLL) with a Buy rating and a $32 PO.”Morgan Stanley reiterates Live Nation as overweightMorgan Stanley raised its price target on the stock to $140 per share from $120.“OW LYV remains our preferred exposure to strong consumer demand for live events and concerts.”Morgan Stanley reiterates Eli Lilly as a top pickThe firm says it’s sticking with Eli Lilly following the Obesity Week conference in San Antonio,“While the GLP-1 class continues to dominate much of the commercial/pipeline development, at the conference there was increasing discussion about the next wave of mechanisms, including amylin.”Morgan Stanley reiterates Boeing as equal weightThe firm says it sees the stock reacting favorably following news of the labor resolution.“We expect Boeing’s stock to react positively to the labor resolution. We expect investor focus to shift toward execution, current regulatory constraints, and the supply chain following the stock’s reaction to the labor resolution.”Morgan Stanley upgrades Carvana to equal weight from underweightThe firm raised its price target on the stock to $260 per share from $110 following earnings and says the Carvana bull case is starting to play out.“Our previous bull case scenario is playing out: Carvana’s results were strong enough to materially increase our forecasts, the multiple and our rating.”JPMorgan initiates Upstream Bio as overweightJPMorgan says the biotech company is well positioned.“We are initiating coverage of Upstream Bio with an Overweight rating and a Dec- 2025 price target of $38.”RBC reiterates Microsoft a outperformThe firm says it’s more constructive on the stock after a visit to the company’s headquarters.“We maintain our Outperform rating and $500 PT on Microsoft, following our campus visit with executives at the company’s headquarters in Redmond, WA.”Bank of America reiterates Broadcom as buyThe firm says it’s sticking by shares of Broadcom.“Broadcom has an extensive semiconductor product portfolio, which addresses applications within the wired infrastructure, wireless communications, enterprise storage, and industrial end markets.”Bank of America reiterates Apple as buyBank of America says it sees “limited” impact to Apple earnings regardless of the Presidential outcome.“We see a higher likelihood of new import tariffs if the Republicans control Congress and the Presidency. Either way, we would expect limited impact on Apple’s earnings.”Bank of America reiterates Palantir as buyThe firm says Palantir is an AI “juggernaut” following earnings on Monday.“We continue to view the adoption of PLTR’s AI-enabled products and reach in its early days, as more companies realize the time, resource, and cost savings possible. In our view, Palantir’s moat as the differentiated agnostic AI-enabler is only growing with each new use-case carrying compounding unit economics.”Bank of America reiterates Arista Networks as buyBank of America says it sees share gains ahead for the networking equipment company.“We raise our Arista PO to $455 from $380, still based on a 42.5x forward P/E multiple on the back of Meta and Microsoft’s strong capex commentary, reflecting the company’s growing opportunity in AI Ethernet networking buildouts.”Morgan Stanley upgrades Disc Medicine to overweight from equal weightThe firm says it’s upgrading Disc after the biotech company got a series of regulatory updates on its Schizophrenia drug, Bitopertin.“Bitopertin regulatory update restores our confidence in potential approval, with upside surprise of a likely faster timeline.”Bernstein initiates Eaton as outperformBernstein said in its initiation of Eaton that the electric company is a beneficiary of growing electric demand in the years ahead.“Electricity demand is entering an era of secular growth, the world is changing the way energy flows, and the infrastructure build-out to support these megatrends is in its early stages.”Deutsche Bank downgrades Marqeta to sector weight from overweightDeutsche says there’s too much regulatory uncertainty surrounding the card issuing platform.“Due to the regulatory overhang and client-specific headwinds facing MQ, we are moving to the sideline downgrading the shares to Hold and setting a $4 TP as we expect the confusion and uncertainty around MQ’s core embedded finance market to linger.”Bernstein upgrades eBay to outperform from market performBernstein said it sees an attractive entry point for the online e-commerce site.“We are upgrading EBAY from Market-Perform to Outperform, maintaining our PT of $70. We couldn’t justify an upgrade when the stock was in the mid-to-high $60/share range, but we believe the recent pullback offers a better entry point.”Jefferies initiates Alarm.com as buyJefferies says the home security company has a “quality business.”“ALRM has a durable growth profile and solid profitability.”Barclays initiates Celestica as overweightBarclays says the electronics manufacturing company is “uniquely” positioned.“We are initiating coverage of Celestica with an OW rating and $91 price target.”Telsey downgrades Dollar Tree to market perform from outperformTelsey says it’s concerned about management changes.“Downgrading DLTR to Market Perform Rating from Outperform: The departure of CEO Rick Dreiling reduces our confidence in the story and limits our visibility on the strategy and execution ahead.”Truist upgrades MasTec to buy from holdThe firm says it’s bullish on the infrastructure construction company.“While MTZ has been one of the best performers among our coverage year to date, we still believe there is a significant opportunity for the stock to re-rate as the top line and margin performance improves for the company’s Power Delivery, Clean Energy & Infrastructure, and Communications segments.”Bank of America upgrades MDU Resources to buy from neutralThe firm says growth is underappreciated at the construction company.“We upgrade MDU Resources (MDU) to Buy from Neutral. After the spin-off of the company’s construction services business, which was completed on November 1, MDU shares traded down 4%. We now see an attractive opportunity, as shares now trade -10% below the value implied by our sum-of-the-parts valuation of the remaining portfolio.”Morgan Stanley reinstates Krispy Kreme as equal weightMorgan Stanley says Krispy Kreme has a balanced risk/reward right now.“MCD partnership an interesting catalyst to support expansion strategy. But not entirely unappreciated, in our view, and flow through to key metrics will take time to show.”Bank of America upgrades Idacorp to buy from neutralThe firm says it sees “outsized growth” for the electricity holding company.“We upgrade IDA to Buy from Neutral. We apply the latest peer multiple of 15.5x vs 16.2x prior, to our refreshed FY26 estimate, increasing our PO 4% to $117 from $113. We see upside to the already outsized current growth forecast driven by large load growth forecasts and potential upside to generation/transmission spend at an attractive valuation.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":152,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":264621899661624,"gmtCreate":1705629001507,"gmtModify":1705630958105,"author":{"id":"4134721698038592","authorId":"4134721698038592","name":"ciresm","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4134721698038592","authorIdStr":"4134721698038592"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This guy says the opposite on Sound&nbsp; https://tigr.link/62vJ9I","listText":"This guy says the opposite on Sound&nbsp; https://tigr.link/62vJ9I","text":"This guy says the opposite on Sound https://tigr.link/62vJ9I","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/264621899661624","repostId":"2404531355","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2404531355","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1705557214,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2404531355?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-01-18 13:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 AI Stocks That Could Make You a Millionaire","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2404531355","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These stocks carry some risk but a lot of potential reward, too.","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>SoundHound AI is a leader in audio AI technology.</p></li><li><p>SentinelOne&#39;s high-end tech and innovation point to a bright future.</p></li><li><p>Lemonade is using AI to disrupt the insurance industry.</p></li></ul><p>Nobody ever got filthy rich without taking some risk. Artificial intelligence (AI) is here, and the long-term opportunity could be worth trillions of dollars. Today, many investors are flocking to industry leaders like <strong>Nvidia</strong> who seem firmly entrenched in the industry&#39;s bright future.</p><p>That&#39;s all fine, but a skyrocketing company like Nvidia is already worth over a trillion dollars. Life-changing investment returns will likely come from small, innovative disruptors today that grew to become the household names of the future.</p><p>These three stocks all have that potential.</p><p>Be warned, these companies are still starting out and carry lots of risk. But if things work out, they could define an investing career. Getting one of these early investments right can make up for many misses.</p><h2 id=\"id_265319847\">1. SoundHound AI</h2><p>AI advancements aren&#39;t just about what you read or write, but what you say and hear. <strong>SoundHound AI</strong> (SOUN) develops AI technology for sound recognition and audio processing. Its software is used for virtual assistants in the automotive industry, to process orders in restaurants, in automated call centers, and with smart electronic devices.</p><p>SoundHound AI&#39;s technology works in 25 languages and is protected by 120 granted patents, with another 140 pending. You can see below that the company has very little revenue today, just $38 million over the past year. However, its cumulative backlog totals $342 million, so future revenue growth looks strong. Management believes the company&#39;s total addressable market will surpass $160 billion by 2026.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68961acfb75a36840aa94ee483a27c55\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"497\"/></p><p>SOUN Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts</p><p>Importantly, SoundHound AI has competition from more prominent tech companies but believes that its technology is superior because of its independence and wide-ranging capabilities. And at a market cap under $500 million, SoundHound doesn&#39;t need to capture the whole market. If it continues growing and establishes enough pricing power to turn profitable, the stock could be a home run from its current small size.</p><h2 id=\"id_2143853684\">2. SentinelOne</h2><p>Cybersecurity has existed since the dawn of the internet, but the industry is revolutionizing. Antivirus is becoming dated, giving way to next-generation solutions from companies like <strong>SentinelOne</strong>. The company&#39;s security platform, Singularity, uses AI to proactively hunt for potential threats and bad actors on endpoints (devices connected to a network).</p><p>The cybersecurity industry is chock-full of competition from legacy software companies and newer players with advanced solutions, like SentinelOne. Corporations have good reason to look toward high-end security. According to <strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a></strong>, the average data breach can cost a corporation $4.45 million. SentinelOne&#39;s technology helps it stand out. The company has received recognition from third parties like <strong>Gartner</strong> for its high level of performance and efficacy in mitigating threats.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d970ee19d625db80ace430f2c93f91f3\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"497\"/></p><p>S Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts</p><p>SentinelOne continues to grow, and its financials have rapidly improved, putting profitability within sight over the next few years. SentinelOne&#39;s management is also releasing new products, like Purple AI, a generative AI to aid its core product, and Singularity Data Lake, which helps organizations securely store and analyze data. The continual innovation could create excellent outcomes for investors over the coming years.</p><h2 id=\"id_3198501788\">3. Lemonade</h2><p>Insurance isn&#39;t an industry where you initially think of AI, but <strong>Lemonade</strong> has built its business around it. Traditional insurance companies rely on agents to sell policies and manage claims. Lemonade cut that layer of cost out of its business and instead uses AI chatbots to write policies in as little as 90 seconds and pay claims in three minutes.</p><p>Users also like the company&#39;s new-age approach. Lemonade has amassed a customer base of over 2 million policyholders. There&#39;s a massive growth opportunity ahead, too. There are over 250 million adults in the U.S. alone, and Lemonade has expanded its offerings to include renters, homeowners, car, pet, and life insurance.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa13eb0feb1bf9d7b1f5c3d5ca1ae521\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"497\"/></p><p>LMND Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts</p><p>No, Lemonade isn&#39;t profitable today, but while doubling from 1 million customers to 2 million, its total premium fees increased by 3.5 times. Additionally, the company is still well funded, with $945 million in cash on its balance sheet against net cash usage of $103 million through nine months of 2023.</p><p>Lemonade could take years to grow and mature, so having deep pockets should help investors remain patient. The juice will be worth the squeeze if Lemonade grows into a nationwide mainstream insurance company.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 AI Stocks That Could Make You a Millionaire</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 AI Stocks That Could Make You a Millionaire\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-01-18 13:53 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/01/17/3-ai-stocks-that-could-make-you-a-millionaire/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SoundHound AI is a leader in audio AI technology.SentinelOne's high-end tech and innovation point to a bright future.Lemonade is using AI to disrupt the insurance industry.Nobody ever got filthy rich ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/01/17/3-ai-stocks-that-could-make-you-a-millionaire/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU0820562030.AUD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMH2\" (AUDHDG) H2 INC","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","BK4527":"明星科技股","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4141":"半导体产品","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0672654240.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD-H1","LU0786609619.USD":"高盛全球千禧一代股票组合Acc","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4099":"汽车制造商","LU0957791311.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL FOCUS \"ZU\" (USD) ACC","BK4529":"IDC概念","BK4528":"SaaS概念","SOUN":"SoundHound AI Inc","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","BK4023":"应用软件","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","S":"SentinelOne, Inc","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4523":"印度概念","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LMND":"Lemonade, Inc.","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/01/17/3-ai-stocks-that-could-make-you-a-millionaire/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2404531355","content_text":"SoundHound AI is a leader in audio AI technology.SentinelOne's high-end tech and innovation point to a bright future.Lemonade is using AI to disrupt the insurance industry.Nobody ever got filthy rich without taking some risk. Artificial intelligence (AI) is here, and the long-term opportunity could be worth trillions of dollars. Today, many investors are flocking to industry leaders like Nvidia who seem firmly entrenched in the industry's bright future.That's all fine, but a skyrocketing company like Nvidia is already worth over a trillion dollars. Life-changing investment returns will likely come from small, innovative disruptors today that grew to become the household names of the future.These three stocks all have that potential.Be warned, these companies are still starting out and carry lots of risk. But if things work out, they could define an investing career. Getting one of these early investments right can make up for many misses.1. SoundHound AIAI advancements aren't just about what you read or write, but what you say and hear. SoundHound AI (SOUN) develops AI technology for sound recognition and audio processing. Its software is used for virtual assistants in the automotive industry, to process orders in restaurants, in automated call centers, and with smart electronic devices.SoundHound AI's technology works in 25 languages and is protected by 120 granted patents, with another 140 pending. You can see below that the company has very little revenue today, just $38 million over the past year. However, its cumulative backlog totals $342 million, so future revenue growth looks strong. Management believes the company's total addressable market will surpass $160 billion by 2026.SOUN Revenue (TTM) data by YChartsImportantly, SoundHound AI has competition from more prominent tech companies but believes that its technology is superior because of its independence and wide-ranging capabilities. And at a market cap under $500 million, SoundHound doesn't need to capture the whole market. If it continues growing and establishes enough pricing power to turn profitable, the stock could be a home run from its current small size.2. SentinelOneCybersecurity has existed since the dawn of the internet, but the industry is revolutionizing. Antivirus is becoming dated, giving way to next-generation solutions from companies like SentinelOne. The company's security platform, Singularity, uses AI to proactively hunt for potential threats and bad actors on endpoints (devices connected to a network).The cybersecurity industry is chock-full of competition from legacy software companies and newer players with advanced solutions, like SentinelOne. Corporations have good reason to look toward high-end security. According to IBM, the average data breach can cost a corporation $4.45 million. SentinelOne's technology helps it stand out. The company has received recognition from third parties like Gartner for its high level of performance and efficacy in mitigating threats.S Revenue (TTM) data by YChartsSentinelOne continues to grow, and its financials have rapidly improved, putting profitability within sight over the next few years. SentinelOne's management is also releasing new products, like Purple AI, a generative AI to aid its core product, and Singularity Data Lake, which helps organizations securely store and analyze data. The continual innovation could create excellent outcomes for investors over the coming years.3. LemonadeInsurance isn't an industry where you initially think of AI, but Lemonade has built its business around it. Traditional insurance companies rely on agents to sell policies and manage claims. Lemonade cut that layer of cost out of its business and instead uses AI chatbots to write policies in as little as 90 seconds and pay claims in three minutes.Users also like the company's new-age approach. Lemonade has amassed a customer base of over 2 million policyholders. There's a massive growth opportunity ahead, too. There are over 250 million adults in the U.S. alone, and Lemonade has expanded its offerings to include renters, homeowners, car, pet, and life insurance.LMND Revenue (TTM) data by YChartsNo, Lemonade isn't profitable today, but while doubling from 1 million customers to 2 million, its total premium fees increased by 3.5 times. Additionally, the company is still well funded, with $945 million in cash on its balance sheet against net cash usage of $103 million through nine months of 2023.Lemonade could take years to grow and mature, so having deep pockets should help investors remain patient. The juice will be worth the squeeze if Lemonade grows into a nationwide mainstream insurance company.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":154,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9954503884,"gmtCreate":1676438178148,"gmtModify":1676438902025,"author":{"id":"4134721698038592","authorId":"4134721698038592","name":"ciresm","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4134721698038592","authorIdStr":"4134721698038592"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Should have not listen to this😅","listText":"Should have not listen to this😅","text":"Should have not listen to this😅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9954503884","repostId":"1120289401","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1120289401","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1676359725,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1120289401?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-02-14 15:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock: Get Ready For A Sell-Off","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120289401","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryToday I see a fairly high risk of profit-taking in Tesla, Inc. stock and a further downward m","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Today I see a fairly high risk of profit-taking in Tesla, Inc. stock and a further downward movement shortly.</li><li>This is supported by both the general market indicators and the idiosyncratic technical signs in Tesla&#39;s price action.</li><li>The company&#39;s market cap now is much higher than its fair value, despite the doubling of my discounted cash flow analysis price output.</li><li>I believe that in 2023, investors will have even better chances to buy Tesla stock for a lot cheaper.</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15402ca3ce706835733f8b286527cedb\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>jetcityimage</p><h2>My Coverage History</h2><p>You are now reading my 6th article on<b>Tesla, Inc.</b>(NASDAQ:TSLA). I initiated coverage of TSLA on October 18, 2021, with a buy recommendation. At that time, the company&#39;s outlook seemed rosy and somefundamental tailwinds could support the continuation of the stock rally. Exactly 2 weeks and 3 days after that call, TSLA surged more than 46% and marked its all-time high, which was never reached again.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f520233e45c16f09424f3b27c2170986\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>TrendSpider, author&#39;s notes</p><p>In mid-June 2022, I proposeda pair trade idea- a long position in Tesla and a short position in <b>Lucid Group, Inc.</b>(LCID) for the same dollar amount. I reasoned that the most robust company would continue to outperform the fast-growing niche of the auto market. In contrast, the most overvalued company in the group would continue to experience strong multiple contraction andfall much deeper. Since then, the spread between the two stocks has been comfortable enough to make money even after factoring in the commission on the short position and the sharp drop in TSLA in December 2022:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/351f491c1849c318143c36ee85f28264\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Data byYCharts</p><p>On October 21, I was Neutral, saying Tesla stock was overvalued and warning about the risks in the company&#39;s accounting - this call coincided with the start of &#34;the great meltdown.&#34;</p><p>At the end of December, I caught the news that Elon Musk had stopped selling his stock and would not sell for 1-2 more years - at least that&#39;s what he announced publicly. Few people wrote about it at the time, but as it turned out later, my guess about reducing supply in the market had a positive effect on the price action.</p><p>Inthe last article- &#34;<i>Tesla Stock: Go Fishing Below $100</i>&#34; - I wrote the following:</p><blockquote>No one knows exactly when the downward slide of Tesla stock will end. However, one thing seems clear to me -<b>TSLA&#39;s 43% drop in just 2 last months looks like a textbook stock market overreaction</b>against a backdrop of plenty of negative news and a lack of positive news for the company.</blockquote><blockquote>[emphasis added by the author]</blockquote><p>Then I expected TSLA to fall even lower - that&#39;s when I suggested taking a position in the portfolio. I was wrong - after my call, the stock has not fallen below $116 and has gained &gt;80% in 2 weeks and 2 days.</p><h2>My Updated Thesis Today</h2><p>Today <b>I see a fairly high risk of profit-taking and a further downward movement shortly.</b>This is supported by both the general market indicators and the idiosyncratic technical signs in TSLA&#39;s price action. All of this is coupled with a strong gap between the company&#39;s market capitalization and its fair value [I update my discounted cash flow, or DCF, model upward in today&#39;s article, but that does not solve the overvaluation problem]. I am Neutral on the stock again, but this time more bearish in the short term than before.</p><h2>Profit-Taking Is Around The Corner</h2><p>In recent weeks - and indeed since late December, when the market (SP500) refused to go lower after bouncing off its 200-day moving average - we have seen strong advances in sentiment. The extreme fear of mid-October 2022 has turned into extreme greed by early February 2023, and we are still in an environment of heightened greed, according toCNN&#39;s Fear &amp; Greed Index:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/420ce6e30e8d175acd52aa1614ba7a9f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>CNN Business</p><p>It may seem to you in recent days that everyone is expecting another correction from current levels -<i>but that is not the case!</i>The consensus view, if you break down the above index into its component parts, is that the market should continue to rise shortly after the upcoming publication of the February CPI figures.</p><p>The McClellan Volume Summation Index - the volume of shares on the NYSE that are rising compared to the number of shares that are going down - peaked on Feb. 2 and is still at a very high level, which means the market still has a lot more buyers than sellers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d9a80d128086a1fbcd9253302b38d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>CNN Business</p><p>The previous highs of this indicator - April 4, August 18, and December 3, 2022 - coincided with the local highs of the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPY). The 5-day average of the put/call ratio behaved inversely proportional, which now also indicates an extremely bullish view of the general market:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/119d62daa3efc23c3ce1cf80bdcfc4d5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>CNN Business</p><p>I point out these indicators in the Tesla article for two reasons.</p><p><b>First</b>, TSLA is a high-beta [2.11] stock whose 30-day rolling volatility exceeds the market by almost five times [YCharts data]. Simply put, this means that the usually positive correlation between TSLA and SPX forces the former to follow the movement of the latter at double or even triple speed. Now the correlation between Tesla stock and the broader market is broken - this goes against normality and is an anomaly that usually does not last long.</p><p><b>The second reason</b>is that the market rally we have seen recently appears to have been fueled by Tesla buyers. Just look at the volumes of the biggest 12 names:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64359c3491b3ce1db858a6488801de55\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Bloomberg, shared by jeroen blokland [Twitter: @jsblokland]</p><p>The trading volume of Tesla has seen a drastic change in 2023 compared to 2022. In 2022, a 20-day average trading volume between 60 to 90 million shares per day was considered normal, with volumes exceeding 90 to 100 million being considered remarkable. However, in 2023, days with trading volumes below 150 million are now considered modest.</p><p>In my opinion, this is because in the last few weeks, more people wanted to buy the stock every day - the excitement was enormous when the mood of the crowd changed:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2deed2224374a4d0aac83767ac08b1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>socialsentiment.io, author&#39;s notes</p><p>I expect massive profit-taking in TSLA stock now that we are moving from greed to fear again in the market -<b>those who came to chase the rally will most likely start closing their positions en masse, triggering an avalanche effect.</b></p><h2>Tesla&#39;s Technicals Are Bearish</h2><p>I am not a professional technician orCMT holder- just sharing my view on technical things that I find interesting for both bulls and bears.</p><p>The influx of new buyers in recent weeks has pushed the RSI indicator higher - this indicator reached the 85 mark on the 4-hour chart in late January. Since then, however, the strength gradually began to cool down, falling to 63 by February 11. Actually, everything would be fine, but during that time [2 weeks] the stock rose by almost 20%, while the RSI fell - an RSI divergence took place, continuing to this day:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6182ea18a6a3631f1f008ebf066a291\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>TrendSpider, TSLA [4-hour], author&#39;s notes</p><p>The daily chart confirms the bearish outlook for TSLA. We see that on February 9, TSLA stock failed to break through its local resistance zone - the lows of May, June, and October of 2022 - after which the price cooled down slightly (on February 10, we saw a 5% decline). The resulting candlestick pattern is known as the &#34;Bearish abandoned baby&#34;:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9a2254681f7ed5e22aae46a4a3af0a0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>TrendSpider, TSLA (session), author&#39;s notes</p><p>This reversal pattern was, for example, on April 5 the beginning of a new downward trend:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0055c71df4962c92750049a5e7375223\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>TrendSpider, TSLA, author&#39;s notes</p><p>Or, for example, at the end of November 2021, when the price tried twice to overcome its local resistance but finally gave up and fell by 17% within a few days:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/826001c4e91889dad8fb32141a7f059c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>TrendSpider, TSLA, author&#39;s notes</p><p>This is just an indirect sign that Tesla has a difficult road ahead - you cannot just rely on these patterns. However, against the backdrop of the extreme greed I mentioned earlier, <b>the current technical picture is becoming way clearer in the short term</b>. Clearly bearish.</p><h2>Valuation, Again</h2><p>Let me briefly describe the conclusions I have come to in valuing Tesla last time [Jan. 10, 2023].</p><p>I took some investment banks&#39; reports and the consensus and made the DCF assumptions much more conservative - from the working capital estimates to the WACC. I also tried to use an exit multiple [EV/EBITDA] for the Enterprise Value calculation instead of Gordon&#39;s growth rate to minimize the sensitivity of the model and thus the extent to which the forecast deviates from reality. Then TSLA was valued at $98.53 per share.</p><p>As the company&#39;s subsequent Q4 2022reportshowed, the business has performed much better than I expected - so I have now decided to revise my assumptions again.</p><p>Despite falling prices and an apparent cooling of demand in China and globally, Teslabeatthe EPS consensus forecast [by 7.28%] for the 8th consecutive quarter.</p><p>On Feb. 1, 2023, Goldman Sachs&#39; U.S. Autos &amp; Industrial Tech team released a report [proprietary source] on how the automotive industry and some manufacturing companies, in particular, are doing in the U.S. market. According to GS estimates, Tesla has increased its share of the U.S. light vehicle market from 3.9% to 5% over the past year, while finished vehicle inventory in that market remains below historical levels - a clear bullish sign for TSLA investors and an excellent reason to note how the cuts in selling prices are making a positive impact on sales.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fd96b3221aaf3e3cdf890fc23bd56ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"569\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Feb. 1, 2023, Goldman Sachs&#39; U.S. Autos &amp; Industrial Tech team</p><p>Tyler Durden from ZeroHedgegave interesting figuresa few days after the publication of that GS report. Based onVisual Capitalist&#39;s data, Tyler notes that Tesla is the absolute leader among its competitors in terms of net profit [and so gross profit and EBIT] per car sold.</p><p>It seems like Tesla&#39;s hard work is paying off. The company, known for having trouble keeping up with demand in the past, has seen a major decrease in its order backlog. In just a matter of months, thebacklog has gonefrom a whopping 476,000 units in July 2022 to a much smaller 74,000 units by December 2022. This decrease can be credited to Tesla&#39;s incredible production growth, which saw a 41% increase from 2021 to 2022.</p><p>I cannot update my model by just tweaking the exit multiple or the WACC part - I have to take into account the positive part of the company&#39;s resilience. I decided to stick to consensus revenue growth data; I expect the EBITDA margin to be 8.5% in FY2023 and gradually increase to 15% by E2026. According to my calculations, the EBIT margin will be affected by the upcoming slowdown in the economy, but it will then grow quite actively [1% in FY2023 -&gt; 10% in FY2026].</p><p>The ratios for working capital - including the ratio of receivables to sales, inventories to sales, and payables to sales - appear to be fairly steady and can be predicted for several years into the future without significant changes, based on the average figures. The ratio of CAPEX to sales is a crucial factor, as it greatly impacts the generation of FCF. In the past, this ratio showed a lot of variabilities, but as Tesla has grown, the ratio has steadily decreased. If there is a recession in late 2023, I anticipate that the ratio of CAPEX to sales will drop even further, possibly to as low as 7%. However, I expect it to rebound in 2024 to 8% and gradually reach 9% by E2026 as production continues to increase. Given all that, I am not making any alterations to my previous CAPEX and NWC predictions.</p><p>Just like last time, I calculate my WACC based on the CAPM model. But now my inputs shifted a little bit:</p><ul><li>beta = 2.03;</li><li>cost of debt = 8%;</li><li>tax rate = 12.99%;</li><li>risk-free rate = 3.5%;</li><li>cost of equity = 4.5%.</li></ul><p>So my WACC is only 0.3% higher than JPM&#39;s - 12.55%. In my opinion, this is a very reasonable discount rate for the risk investors take in buying Tesla shares.</p><p>However, I have decided to increase the exit EV/EBITDA multiple from 12x to 15x so that my valuation model takes into account the hopes of all investors for abnormal growth in the post-forecast period [which will start in only 4 forecast years].</p><p>Here&#39;s the output table I&#39;ve got:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/258f1e7ef0f2f41491fd1c7d42880994\" tg-width=\"503\" tg-height=\"669\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/> </p><p>As you can see, <b>my &#34;fair&#34; price target doubled from $98.53 to $196.89 per share.</b>However, the overvaluation has increased by a factor of ~2.5, as TSLA has already made strong gains in recent weeks.</p><p>It is nice to see that the results of my valuation - despite the rather simple approach of modeling - are around the 60-70% percentile, accordingto Aswath Damodaran&#39;s model. This means that I may be not very far from reality.</p><p>Also, the fact that Tesla&#39;s rally was so fast is not just my opinion. Analysts at Morgan Stanley, whose assumptions I discussed in great detail in one of my earlier Tesla articles, have noted that the recent rally severely limits the upside potential of TSLA stock in the near term [proprietary source]. The bulls will need a lot more tailwinds and positive news to keep the stock on the upswing:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d72b9d46f30b9fefc071f20f6c060a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Morgan Stanley [02/09/2023] + author&#39;s notes</p><h2>The Verdict</h2><p>The market&#39;s feeling pretty greedy right now, according to CNN&#39;s Fear &amp; Greed Index - and it looks like Tesla buyers have been driving the recent stock rally. But when the market even hints at slowing down, these buyers are likely to bail and take their profits. The normal relationship between Tesla and the overall market has gone haywire, which probably won&#39;t stick around for long. When the bears get the chance, it looks like Tesla stock will be the first to take a nosedive. Technical signals and a huge divergence from the stock&#39;s &#34;fair value&#34; are already showing this risk.</p><p>However, I may be wrong on all points of my analysis. If, for example, the February figures CPI turn out better than expected, the markets could receive additional growth impetus - investors now have enough cash to spend. Another risk to my thesis is the subjectivity of technical analysis and valuation. Everyone reads and analyzes charts differently, and different time frames lead to different conclusions. On the monthly chart, TSLA is far from being overbought, and even more - it may seem like a great buy right now.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/badab3c2ce2e4808f5965df3e350755f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>TrendSpider, TSLA [monthly], author&#39;s notes</p><p>The Morningstar&#39;s systemdisagrees with my fair value conclusions - it thinks TSLA is ~12% undervalued even after its big rally:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ad094da2ea771e3dabce7c88c90c2cb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Morningstar Premium</p><p>Even though I&#39;ve doubled my price target, I still think Tesla, Inc. is more likely to see a big sell-off now compared to a few weeks ago or the last time I wrote about the company. I&#39;m keeping my Hold [Neutral] rating but can&#39;t suggest buying TSLA because of the reasons mentioned above. I believe that in 2023, investors will have even better chances to buy this stock for a lot cheaper.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock: Get Ready For A Sell-Off</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock: Get Ready For A Sell-Off\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-14 15:28 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4577781-tesla-stock-get-ready-for-a-sell-off><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryToday I see a fairly high risk of profit-taking in Tesla, Inc. stock and a further downward movement shortly.This is supported by both the general market indicators and the idiosyncratic ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4577781-tesla-stock-get-ready-for-a-sell-off\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4577781-tesla-stock-get-ready-for-a-sell-off","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120289401","content_text":"SummaryToday I see a fairly high risk of profit-taking in Tesla, Inc. stock and a further downward movement shortly.This is supported by both the general market indicators and the idiosyncratic technical signs in Tesla's price action.The company's market cap now is much higher than its fair value, despite the doubling of my discounted cash flow analysis price output.I believe that in 2023, investors will have even better chances to buy Tesla stock for a lot cheaper.jetcityimageMy Coverage HistoryYou are now reading my 6th article onTesla, Inc.(NASDAQ:TSLA). I initiated coverage of TSLA on October 18, 2021, with a buy recommendation. At that time, the company's outlook seemed rosy and somefundamental tailwinds could support the continuation of the stock rally. Exactly 2 weeks and 3 days after that call, TSLA surged more than 46% and marked its all-time high, which was never reached again.TrendSpider, author's notesIn mid-June 2022, I proposeda pair trade idea- a long position in Tesla and a short position in Lucid Group, Inc.(LCID) for the same dollar amount. I reasoned that the most robust company would continue to outperform the fast-growing niche of the auto market. In contrast, the most overvalued company in the group would continue to experience strong multiple contraction andfall much deeper. Since then, the spread between the two stocks has been comfortable enough to make money even after factoring in the commission on the short position and the sharp drop in TSLA in December 2022:Data byYChartsOn October 21, I was Neutral, saying Tesla stock was overvalued and warning about the risks in the company's accounting - this call coincided with the start of \"the great meltdown.\"At the end of December, I caught the news that Elon Musk had stopped selling his stock and would not sell for 1-2 more years - at least that's what he announced publicly. Few people wrote about it at the time, but as it turned out later, my guess about reducing supply in the market had a positive effect on the price action.Inthe last article- \"Tesla Stock: Go Fishing Below $100\" - I wrote the following:No one knows exactly when the downward slide of Tesla stock will end. However, one thing seems clear to me -TSLA's 43% drop in just 2 last months looks like a textbook stock market overreactionagainst a backdrop of plenty of negative news and a lack of positive news for the company.[emphasis added by the author]Then I expected TSLA to fall even lower - that's when I suggested taking a position in the portfolio. I was wrong - after my call, the stock has not fallen below $116 and has gained >80% in 2 weeks and 2 days.My Updated Thesis TodayToday I see a fairly high risk of profit-taking and a further downward movement shortly.This is supported by both the general market indicators and the idiosyncratic technical signs in TSLA's price action. All of this is coupled with a strong gap between the company's market capitalization and its fair value [I update my discounted cash flow, or DCF, model upward in today's article, but that does not solve the overvaluation problem]. I am Neutral on the stock again, but this time more bearish in the short term than before.Profit-Taking Is Around The CornerIn recent weeks - and indeed since late December, when the market (SP500) refused to go lower after bouncing off its 200-day moving average - we have seen strong advances in sentiment. The extreme fear of mid-October 2022 has turned into extreme greed by early February 2023, and we are still in an environment of heightened greed, according toCNN's Fear & Greed Index:CNN BusinessIt may seem to you in recent days that everyone is expecting another correction from current levels -but that is not the case!The consensus view, if you break down the above index into its component parts, is that the market should continue to rise shortly after the upcoming publication of the February CPI figures.The McClellan Volume Summation Index - the volume of shares on the NYSE that are rising compared to the number of shares that are going down - peaked on Feb. 2 and is still at a very high level, which means the market still has a lot more buyers than sellers.CNN BusinessThe previous highs of this indicator - April 4, August 18, and December 3, 2022 - coincided with the local highs of the S&P 500 Index (SPY). The 5-day average of the put/call ratio behaved inversely proportional, which now also indicates an extremely bullish view of the general market:CNN BusinessI point out these indicators in the Tesla article for two reasons.First, TSLA is a high-beta [2.11] stock whose 30-day rolling volatility exceeds the market by almost five times [YCharts data]. Simply put, this means that the usually positive correlation between TSLA and SPX forces the former to follow the movement of the latter at double or even triple speed. Now the correlation between Tesla stock and the broader market is broken - this goes against normality and is an anomaly that usually does not last long.The second reasonis that the market rally we have seen recently appears to have been fueled by Tesla buyers. Just look at the volumes of the biggest 12 names:Bloomberg, shared by jeroen blokland [Twitter: @jsblokland]The trading volume of Tesla has seen a drastic change in 2023 compared to 2022. In 2022, a 20-day average trading volume between 60 to 90 million shares per day was considered normal, with volumes exceeding 90 to 100 million being considered remarkable. However, in 2023, days with trading volumes below 150 million are now considered modest.In my opinion, this is because in the last few weeks, more people wanted to buy the stock every day - the excitement was enormous when the mood of the crowd changed:socialsentiment.io, author's notesI expect massive profit-taking in TSLA stock now that we are moving from greed to fear again in the market -those who came to chase the rally will most likely start closing their positions en masse, triggering an avalanche effect.Tesla's Technicals Are BearishI am not a professional technician orCMT holder- just sharing my view on technical things that I find interesting for both bulls and bears.The influx of new buyers in recent weeks has pushed the RSI indicator higher - this indicator reached the 85 mark on the 4-hour chart in late January. Since then, however, the strength gradually began to cool down, falling to 63 by February 11. Actually, everything would be fine, but during that time [2 weeks] the stock rose by almost 20%, while the RSI fell - an RSI divergence took place, continuing to this day:TrendSpider, TSLA [4-hour], author's notesThe daily chart confirms the bearish outlook for TSLA. We see that on February 9, TSLA stock failed to break through its local resistance zone - the lows of May, June, and October of 2022 - after which the price cooled down slightly (on February 10, we saw a 5% decline). The resulting candlestick pattern is known as the \"Bearish abandoned baby\":TrendSpider, TSLA (session), author's notesThis reversal pattern was, for example, on April 5 the beginning of a new downward trend:TrendSpider, TSLA, author's notesOr, for example, at the end of November 2021, when the price tried twice to overcome its local resistance but finally gave up and fell by 17% within a few days:TrendSpider, TSLA, author's notesThis is just an indirect sign that Tesla has a difficult road ahead - you cannot just rely on these patterns. However, against the backdrop of the extreme greed I mentioned earlier, the current technical picture is becoming way clearer in the short term. Clearly bearish.Valuation, AgainLet me briefly describe the conclusions I have come to in valuing Tesla last time [Jan. 10, 2023].I took some investment banks' reports and the consensus and made the DCF assumptions much more conservative - from the working capital estimates to the WACC. I also tried to use an exit multiple [EV/EBITDA] for the Enterprise Value calculation instead of Gordon's growth rate to minimize the sensitivity of the model and thus the extent to which the forecast deviates from reality. Then TSLA was valued at $98.53 per share.As the company's subsequent Q4 2022reportshowed, the business has performed much better than I expected - so I have now decided to revise my assumptions again.Despite falling prices and an apparent cooling of demand in China and globally, Teslabeatthe EPS consensus forecast [by 7.28%] for the 8th consecutive quarter.On Feb. 1, 2023, Goldman Sachs' U.S. Autos & Industrial Tech team released a report [proprietary source] on how the automotive industry and some manufacturing companies, in particular, are doing in the U.S. market. According to GS estimates, Tesla has increased its share of the U.S. light vehicle market from 3.9% to 5% over the past year, while finished vehicle inventory in that market remains below historical levels - a clear bullish sign for TSLA investors and an excellent reason to note how the cuts in selling prices are making a positive impact on sales.Feb. 1, 2023, Goldman Sachs' U.S. Autos & Industrial Tech teamTyler Durden from ZeroHedgegave interesting figuresa few days after the publication of that GS report. Based onVisual Capitalist's data, Tyler notes that Tesla is the absolute leader among its competitors in terms of net profit [and so gross profit and EBIT] per car sold.It seems like Tesla's hard work is paying off. The company, known for having trouble keeping up with demand in the past, has seen a major decrease in its order backlog. In just a matter of months, thebacklog has gonefrom a whopping 476,000 units in July 2022 to a much smaller 74,000 units by December 2022. This decrease can be credited to Tesla's incredible production growth, which saw a 41% increase from 2021 to 2022.I cannot update my model by just tweaking the exit multiple or the WACC part - I have to take into account the positive part of the company's resilience. I decided to stick to consensus revenue growth data; I expect the EBITDA margin to be 8.5% in FY2023 and gradually increase to 15% by E2026. According to my calculations, the EBIT margin will be affected by the upcoming slowdown in the economy, but it will then grow quite actively [1% in FY2023 -> 10% in FY2026].The ratios for working capital - including the ratio of receivables to sales, inventories to sales, and payables to sales - appear to be fairly steady and can be predicted for several years into the future without significant changes, based on the average figures. The ratio of CAPEX to sales is a crucial factor, as it greatly impacts the generation of FCF. In the past, this ratio showed a lot of variabilities, but as Tesla has grown, the ratio has steadily decreased. If there is a recession in late 2023, I anticipate that the ratio of CAPEX to sales will drop even further, possibly to as low as 7%. However, I expect it to rebound in 2024 to 8% and gradually reach 9% by E2026 as production continues to increase. Given all that, I am not making any alterations to my previous CAPEX and NWC predictions.Just like last time, I calculate my WACC based on the CAPM model. But now my inputs shifted a little bit:beta = 2.03;cost of debt = 8%;tax rate = 12.99%;risk-free rate = 3.5%;cost of equity = 4.5%.So my WACC is only 0.3% higher than JPM's - 12.55%. In my opinion, this is a very reasonable discount rate for the risk investors take in buying Tesla shares.However, I have decided to increase the exit EV/EBITDA multiple from 12x to 15x so that my valuation model takes into account the hopes of all investors for abnormal growth in the post-forecast period [which will start in only 4 forecast years].Here's the output table I've got: As you can see, my \"fair\" price target doubled from $98.53 to $196.89 per share.However, the overvaluation has increased by a factor of ~2.5, as TSLA has already made strong gains in recent weeks.It is nice to see that the results of my valuation - despite the rather simple approach of modeling - are around the 60-70% percentile, accordingto Aswath Damodaran's model. This means that I may be not very far from reality.Also, the fact that Tesla's rally was so fast is not just my opinion. Analysts at Morgan Stanley, whose assumptions I discussed in great detail in one of my earlier Tesla articles, have noted that the recent rally severely limits the upside potential of TSLA stock in the near term [proprietary source]. The bulls will need a lot more tailwinds and positive news to keep the stock on the upswing:Morgan Stanley [02/09/2023] + author's notesThe VerdictThe market's feeling pretty greedy right now, according to CNN's Fear & Greed Index - and it looks like Tesla buyers have been driving the recent stock rally. But when the market even hints at slowing down, these buyers are likely to bail and take their profits. The normal relationship between Tesla and the overall market has gone haywire, which probably won't stick around for long. When the bears get the chance, it looks like Tesla stock will be the first to take a nosedive. Technical signals and a huge divergence from the stock's \"fair value\" are already showing this risk.However, I may be wrong on all points of my analysis. If, for example, the February figures CPI turn out better than expected, the markets could receive additional growth impetus - investors now have enough cash to spend. Another risk to my thesis is the subjectivity of technical analysis and valuation. Everyone reads and analyzes charts differently, and different time frames lead to different conclusions. On the monthly chart, TSLA is far from being overbought, and even more - it may seem like a great buy right now.TrendSpider, TSLA [monthly], author's notesThe Morningstar's systemdisagrees with my fair value conclusions - it thinks TSLA is ~12% undervalued even after its big rally:Morningstar PremiumEven though I've doubled my price target, I still think Tesla, Inc. is more likely to see a big sell-off now compared to a few weeks ago or the last time I wrote about the company. I'm keeping my Hold [Neutral] rating but can't suggest buying TSLA because of the reasons mentioned above. I believe that in 2023, investors will have even better chances to buy this stock for a lot cheaper.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":301,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}