To The Moon

Performance of Global Equity Indices(in US Dollar) Last week, progress was made on the U.S. tariff front. The U.S. and U.K. reached their first official agreement, which, while still lacking finalized details, revealed a key structure: a 10% baseline tariff appears to be Trump’s bottom line, while additional surcharges serve as bargaining tools that could be reduced or waived through other means.  Over the weekend, the first high-level U.S.-China meeting delivered a surprisingly positive outcome, with both sides issuing a Joint Statement from Geneva. The two countries agreed to cancel 91% of tariffs and suspend an additional 24%. As it stands, the U.S. has imposed a net 30% tariff increase on China, while China has raised tariffs on the U.S. by 10%. This outcome boosted market sentime

Performance of Global Equity Indices(in US Dollar) Last week, overall market sentiment continued to improve, with Greater China's Hang Seng Tech Index surging over 5%, leading all major global equity assets. U.S. stocks also extended their rebound, achieving an impressive nine-day winning streak. The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 all posted weekly gains of around 3%. In contrast, China's A-shares remained relatively independent, neither following the global sell-offs nor the rallies. Last week saw the release of a slew of macroeconomic data, which, despite some volatility, ended largely without incident. Initially, U.S. Q1 GDP unexpectedly turned negative, triggered by a surge in imports, sparking momentary market panic. However, the March Core PCE came in flat (0% growth), and

Performance of Global Equity Indices(in US Dollar) Last week, market tensions eased, and U.S. equities resumed their rebound, with the Nasdaq posting a weekly gain of over 6%, leading all major global equity indices. The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 also delivered strong performances, each rising by more than 4%. In contrast, Greater China equities—particularly A-shares dominated by domestic investors—saw limited reaction, as their previous declines had been relatively mild, leaving little room for a technical rebound. Notably, Trump softened his stance both domestically and internationally. On the tariff front, he made multiple public remarks indicating ongoing contact with China, signaling potential bilateral negotiations. On the political front, Trump executed a complete U-turn, openly

Performance of Global Equity Indices(in US Dollar) Last week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell maintained a hawkish tone, not only reaffirming the Fed’s stance of being in no rush to cut rates, but also explicitly stating that the Fed would not intervene to support the stock market amid volatility. This firmly dashed market hopes for a "Fed Put", triggering a sharp sell-off in equities on the same day. The following day, Trump publicly lashed out, stating that he intended to fire Powell—once again raising questions about the independence of the Federal Reserve. Markets fell further in response to the escalating tension. Historically, when the Fed’s independence comes under serious threat, the outcomes have rarely been positive. A similar situation occurred between 1970 and 1974, when Pr

Performance of Global Equity Indices(in US Dollar) Last week, there was a turning point in Trump’s reciprocal tariff policy, as he announced a 90-day pause, sparking a wave of optimism across global capital markets. Previously suppressed bullish sentiment surged, with the Nasdaq 100 Index jumping over 12% in a single day on Wednesday—marking the third-largest one-day gain in over half a century. On the other hand, Greater China assets suffered a Black Monday. The Hang Seng Tech Index plunged nearly 18% in one session, while CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite showed relative resilience, with declines that have since largely recovered. This week, a sharp and sustained sell-off in long-dated U.S. Treasuries directly pressured Trump to soften his tariff stance. We believe this episode has revealed

Performance of Global Equity Indices(in US Dollar) Last week, global equity markets experienced extreme volatility under the pressure of Trump's tariff policy. In the U.S., the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 indices all fell by nearly 10% in a single week. Japan and Europe were not spared either, each recording declines of over 6%. Due to the Qingming Festival holiday, Greater China markets were closed and thus did not fully reflect the expected drop in the data. Overall, market sentiment is currently in a state of extreme panic. The implementation of Trump’s tariff policy exceeded all expectations in intensity. On top of a 10% base tariff, country-specific surcharges were imposed, with China, Europe, Japan, and Southeast Asia among the hardest hit. In response, China swiftly an

Performance of Global Equity Indices(in US Dollar) Last week, global equity assets performed weakly, with major stock indices around the world experiencing varying degrees of decline. The global technology sector was hit the hardest, with both the Hang Seng Tech Index and the Nasdaq Index falling by more than 2% over the week. In contrast, China’s Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 saw relatively smaller losses. Year-to-date, stocks in non-U.S. countries continue to significantly outperform U.S. equities. Meanwhile, U.S. macro data has delivered one blow after another. The February PCE data once again exceeded expectations, while personal spending growth came in below forecasts. On top of that, the University of Michigan consumer survey delivered another shock—consumer confidence dropped

Performance of Global Equity Indices(in US Dollar) Last week, global equity assets showed lackluster performance overall. Greater China stocks experienced a notable pullback, with the Hang Seng Tech Index—previously the strongest performer—dropping over 4%. The CSI 300, Shanghai Composite Index, and Hang Seng Index also saw significant declines. In contrast, U.S. stocks temporarily stabilized and remained volatile, ultimately closing slightly higher for the week. Year-to-date, Greater China, Europe, and other non-U.S. markets have significantly outperformed U.S. equities. Key Market Themes FOMC Review: Slower Balance Sheet Reduction Can’t Mask Stagflation Risks, Feigned Calm Won’t Alleviate Macro Concerns Last Wednesday, the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting proceeded as expected, with most a

Performance of Global Equity Indices(in US Dollar) Last week, global equity markets showed overall weakness, yet market sentiment was polarized. In Greater China, the tech sector experienced a slight pullback, but the consumer sector took the lead, driving notable gains in the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300. In the U.S., the stock market temporarily stabilized, ending its streak of consecutive declines. Although the Nasdaq surged on Friday, it still closed the week down by more than 2%. Key Events to Watch This Week: Macro Focus → The FOMC meeting will be the primary event. Sector Focus → The NVIDIA GTC Conference for AI industry updates. Stock Focus → A wave of Chinese company earnings, with special attention to Tencent, Xiaomi, and their AI outlooks. Key Market Themes Improving

Performance of Global Equity Indices(in US Dollar) Source: Bloomberg, Tiger Brokers Key Market Themes Trump’s “Debt Reduction Campaign” Shakes the Market—When Will U.S. Stocks Bottom Out? The recent sharp decline in U.S. equities has undoubtedly been the hottest topic among investors. Since mid-to-late February, the Nasdaq has plunged approximately 12% over just a dozen trading sessions. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has been hit even harder, dropping 16%. The once red-hot “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks have suffered severe losses—Tesla has been cut in half, NVIDIA has pulled back 30% from its peak, while Microsoft, Google, and Amazon have each seen declines of nearly 20%. Source: Bloomberg, Tiger Brokers At the heart of this market turbulence is President Donald Trump. His erratic