To The Moon

📅 On April 1st, tensions flared as 🇮🇱 Israel targeted the Iranian consulate in Damascus; 🇮🇷 Iran retaliated with a barrage of missiles and drones on the night of April 13th to 14th, an event that caught 🌍 the world's attention. To prevent a spiral into a cycle of violence, Western governments issued 🔴 red alerts. An escalation into a full-scale regional conflict could have devastating global effects.Led by the United States, Western countries condemned Iran's actions. The international response varied:Turkey urged Iran to prevent further escalation; China adopted a policy of appeasement; 🇷🇺 the Russian Foreign Ministry called for "restraint" from all parties; and Syria, an ally, emphasized Iran's "right to self-defense."🌐📉 The Middle East's unrest has global implications, affecting capital

1. Performance of Global Equity Indices(in US Dollar) Source: Bloomberg 2. Key Market Themes: U.S. job market is weakening. Powell said “a bit more evidence” is needed for rate cut The United States added 275k non-farm jobs in February, slightly higher than the market consensus of 200k. However, the unemployment rate rose by 3.9% in February, higher than market expectations. Meanwhile, average hourly wages increased by only 0.1% month-on-month, and full-time employee wages year-on-year growth declined to almost 0, lower than market expectations. Taken together, this Feb NFP report further confirms that the U.S. job market is weakening. Source: Wells Fargo Fed Chairman Powell said “a bit more evidence” is needed for rate cut in his testimony to congress, pushing the rate cut pricing by the

1. Review of Asset Performance in 2023.As the path curves around the mountain peak, the rivers and mountains bask in the moonlight. Yesterday, we removed our masks to embrace the world; today, conflicts arise, creating a complex and bewildering situation. War or peace, inflation or rate hikes, investing or lying flat, truth and illusion intertwine, marking another year.In 2023, global political unrest prevails, conflicts in Eurasia persist, and the fires of war reignite in the Middle East;In 2023, the global economy tends to stabilize, soaring inflation finally sees a decline, and the ongoing interest rate hikes show signs of a turning point;In 2023, global technology is on the verge, ChatGPT triggers the AI wave, and SpaceX sparks human imagination;In 2023, global assets experience a mix

With the end of the year approaching, major institutions begin to provide outlook for US stock market in 2024.According to some reports released so far, most institutions are slightly more optimistic this year compared with the widespread concerns last year.We have selected three outlook reports from David J. Kostin team of Goldman Sachs, Michael J Wilson team of Morgan Stanley and the Mark Haefele team of UBS.Let’s look at their forecasts for the US stock next year, as well as their analyses and judgment on important issues and directions.Forecasts for S&P 500; Chart made by Tiger_Insights1. Up or down? US stocks growth forecast for 2024It is difficult to accurately predict the rising/falling points of US stocks next year. It is common for institutions to be "prove

In history, it's quite a coincidence that two major stock market crashes in the U.S. occurred in October.In October 1929, the Great Depression began to spread, leading to a massive stock market crash.In October 1987, the U.S. experienced Black Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunging by over 20% in a single day.With the conflict in the Israeli-Palestinian region, the U.S. dollar is surging. On one hand, there is the significantly better-than-expected non-farm employment data, and on the other hand, the Federal Reserve's unwavering commitment to its inflation target, leaving many investors feeling "chilled to the bone" about this October.1. Is October really the month of stock market crashes in the U.S.?The following chart provides the average returns and daily average volatil

There are still medium- and long-term opportunities in chip design, manufacturing, and production in the semiconductor industryApart from whether the U.S. stock index $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $DJIA(.DJI)$ will fall or continue to rise in the second half of the year, there are some medium- and long-term opportunities that investors should seize. For example, the semiconductor sector, which is benefiting from generative AI, and companies that are benefiting from the shift in manufacturing and chip computing.1. The semiconductor industry benefiting from Generative AI:The semiconductor industry is on the upswing. In Q2, revenue levels across the global se

1. The Fed's rate hike this year is coming to an end, and the rate will be raised no more than once in September.Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said at the July FOMC meeting that the path of future rate hikes will depend on U.S. economic data, meaning as long as core inflation can continue to fall, the likelihood of the Fed raising rates further is not that high.Jerome Powell - WikipediaBelow are three factors that deserve attention and could affect inflation data (CPI) in the future:The impact of the July increase in crude oil prices on CPI: There was a relatively significant increase in crude oil prices in July, which may mean that CPI does not return to 2% as quickly.The influence of U.S. residential rental prices: The statistical subitem US CPI includes owner-equivalent rent, while th

The resilience of the US economy is a testament to its robust fundamentals and adaptive strategies. As disinflationary currents flow, two heavyweight reports - one from Morgan Stanley and the other from Barclays - offer deep dives into its nuanced effects on earnings and sectoral dynamics. Disinflation's Broader Brushstrokes on Earnings Disinflation, while signaling a deceleration in price rises, casts a multifaceted shadow on corporate earnings. Morgan Stanley underscores that while disinflation can offer a reprieve from escalating costs, the lingering effects of temporary pricing power can still pose challenges. Companies that ramped up prices in an inflationary environment might find themselves cornered if consumers, sensing the disinflationary trend, anticipate price stabilization. Thi

Looking back at the first half of this year, Fed remains firm in raising interest rates, and the US benchmark interest rate has broken through the 5% . At the same time, although global inflation has fallen, it is still far from the 2% target.  “Higher For Longer” for the interest rate has gradually been verified. The birth of ChatGPT has triggered the fantasy of artificial intelligence to greatly improve production efficiency, which is the biggest surprise in the first half of this year. Under these multiple influences, the United States may enter the era of "high interest rates, high inflation, and high growth" in an all-round way. Looking forward to the second half of the year, how will the market perform?I. Asset Performance Review in H11. Major asset returnsLe

At the June FOMC meeting, Fed unsurprisingly paused the rate hikes. However, Fed Chairman Powell stated during the subsequent press conference, “This pause does not imply that the benchmark interest rate has reached its peak.” The dot plot released at the same time indicated that FOMC members anticipate two additional rate hikes totaling 50 bps by the end of this year.Strangely, the market seemed unfazed by such hawkish remarks, and US stocks only experienced a slight decline on that day. Looking at the Fed Fund Futures traded in the market, the expected benchmark interest rate for December not only failed to surpass previous highs but also remained significantly lower than the median of 5.625% indicated in the Fed's dot plot.Source: BloombergSo, is the benchmark interest rate indicated by