To The Moon

Weekly Performance Checkpoint 【SRT】 $CSOP S-REITs INDEX ETF(SRT.SI)$ ’s losses were led by hotel REITs by subsector and FLT and CLAR by individual REITs. UBS reported a mixed Q3 2024 for SREIT. Despite a narrowing difference between signing and passing rents, rent reversion in Singapore sectors remained robust overall. 【MMF】 Last week, core CPI rose 0.28% m/m in October, softer than JPM's prediction but matched consensus, driven by unexpected weakness in core goods excluding vehicle prices possibly due to weather distortions given hurricanes in Southeast and unusually warm temperatures in Northeast. Data supports a potential Fed cut in mid-December, and swaps traders raised the probability to ~80% from 56% earlier. Core PPI rose +0.3% m/m in Oc

Southeast Asian tech giants $Grab Holdings (GRAB.US)$ and $Sea (SE.US)$ recently announced results that exceeded expectations and achieved the goal of turning losses into profits year-on-year. Grab and Sea's stock prices both rose by more than 10% after announcing exciting third-quarter results. Grab, known as the "Didi" of Southeast Asia, saw its revenue in the third quarter increase by 17% year-on-year to US$716 million, exceeding analysts' expectations of US$697 million. During this period, Grab turned losses into profits, with net profit in the third quarter reaching US$15 million, compared with a loss of US$99 million in the same period last year. In addition, Grab also raised its full-year performance expectations, with strong revenue growth and higher profitability as its key driver

§Last week, Trump won the presidential election, pushing yields to their highest since early July. OIS forwards are pricing in a less dovish path for Fed policy than JPM's revised forecast. Despite this suggesting a good opportunity to add duration, the momentum towards higher yields remains strong. §Trump’s victory could lead to more expansionary fiscal policies in the future. He is likely to extend most of 2017’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and will raise some tariffs. As such, growth and inflation is postulated to be marginally higher in the near-term and fiscal debt-to-GDP ratio will continue to rise. While Trump’s trade policy is a wild card, it is unlikely to be a universal tariff hike, instead it will be staggered and will not be levied on goods where cost to US firms and consumers will b

•Last week, LCU (+2.66% in USD), SQU (+3.01% USD) and SCY (+4.89% in SGD) gained while SRT (-3.38% in SGD) and SHD (-0.66% in SGD) fell. This happened amidst the backdrop of Trump winning the US presidency election as well as a 25bps Fed rate cut. • $CSOP LOW CARBON US$(LCU.SI)$ ’s rise is attributable to financials, IT and consumer discretionary by sectors and Japan, China and Australia by region. By individual firms, gains were led by TSMC, $Toyota Motor (7203.JP)$ and $Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG.US)$ . $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ gained after a top executive from TSMC said the value of Taiwan’s semiconductor output is projected to rise 22% to >$164 billion this year, driven by AI and robust economic growth. Toyota gained afte

• Last week, SQU (+1.97% in USD) and SCY (+0.57% in SGD) gained, while LCU (-2.50% in USD), SRT (-2.97% in SGD), and SHD (-1.10% in SGD) fell. • $CSOP LOW CARBON US$(LCU.SI)$ ‘s fall was attributable to IT, financials and consumer discretionary by sectors, and Japan, China and Taiwan by geographies. By individual firms, the decline was led by TSMC, Alibaba and Samsung Electronics. TSMC fell following suspension of its 2nm plant in Hsinchu for investigation of a death likely caused by electrocution and discovery that chips for a specific customer were delivered to Huawei. • $CSOP SEA TECH ETF US$(SQU.SI)$ ’s gains were led by Grab and Astra. Grab’s target price was raised +4% by UBS ASEAN bank analyst

 Last week, the Beige Book released painted a picture that activity has been much softer than hard data have indicated, which may alleviate market’s concerns about a pause in rate cuts. For instance, Hurricane Helene destroyed crops and paused business activity and tourism, and most districts saw a fall in manufacturing activity.  As for data releases last week, US jobs report was the main focus, and data revealed more positive growth outlook, with initial jobless claims dropping to 227k from 242k the previous week, suggesting a normalization back to late September levels.  However, JPM estimates that hurricanes Helene and Milton, along with the Boeing machinist strike, could reduce next week's October employment report by 80k.  Nevertheless, we expect CSOPUMM to continue to deliver st

• Last week, LCU (+0.35% in USD), SQU (+1.89% in USD), SRT (+0.75% in SGD), SHD (+1.30% in SGD) and SCY (+5.62% in SGD) gained. • LCU’s rise was due to financials, real estate and utilities by sector, and Australia, Taiwan and Indonesia by country. By individual firms, gains were predominantly led by Commonwealth Bank of Australia, MUFG, and Hon Hai Precision Industry. Commonwealth Bank of Australia and MUFG gained after US financials profited. • SQU’s rise was attributable to Delta Electronics, Cal Comp Electronics and Com7 PCL. Delta Electronics was raised from fully valued to hold by DBS Bank. • SRT’s rise was due to industrial, retail and multi asset by subsector and MINT, FCT and CLAR by individual REITs. FCT rose as it could post mild sequential rise in NPI for 2H24 ended September d

· Last week, data reflected better-than-expected domestic consumption and labor market. · Retail sales in September rose by 0.4%, surpassing the 0.3% consensus, and the control group increased by 0.7%, also beating the 0.3% consensus. As such, economists believe these figures indicate a stronger consumption growth rate in 2H24. · Initial claims dropped by 19k to 241k, lower than the 259k consensus, partially reversing the manufacturing-related increase in Midwest states the previous week. · With that, we expect CSOPUMM to continue to deliver stable yield in the near term. As of 20241018, the fund has gross yield of 5.13% and net yield at 4.85%. ^ Source: CSOP, Bloomberg, JP Morgan as of 20241018. ^ Gross yield is based on annualized yield of underlying holdings. 7-day net yield is calculat

• September FOMC meeting minutes revealed a split decision on rate cuts, with the majority favoring a 50 bp reduction. However, as last week's data came out more robust than anticipated, it is forecasted that the pace of rate cuts will be slower moving forward. • Last Thursday saw the release of weak labor market data, with initial claims rising to 258k (consensus: 230k) amidst disruptions arising from Hurricane Helene and Michigan’s layoffs. • Inflation print came out robust, with core CPI rising 0.3% (consensus: 0.2%) in September. Core goods prices rose more than expected, supported by higher vehicle and apparel prices, while core services prices were slightly softer, except a notable 0.7% increase in medical care services prices. • Nevertheless, we expect CSOPUMM to continue to deliver

【The US】 🔸 US trade deficit narrows sharply in August. The US trade deficit narrowed sharply in August as exports increased and imports fell, suggesting that trade could be a small drag on economic growth in the third quarter. The trade gap contracted 10.8 per cent to US$70.4 billion from a revised US$78.9 billion in July, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Tuesday. Trade has subtracted from gross domestic product for two straight quarters. Growth estimates for the third quarter are currently as high as a 3.2 per cent annualised rate. 🔸 NVIDIA (NVDA.US) kicks off AI summit in D.C., with two more in Asia to follow. Chip giant working with U.S. government to bring AI to climate change and healthcare 【China】 🔸 China explores cross-border uses for digital yuan in new