To The Moon

$S&P 500(.SPX)$  The damages to US economy has been done or self inflicted by tariff.  There is economic dislocations and companies will come out to discount downward their earnings. As the market trend down, there will be massive redemptions and margins calls.  These will hit American banks hardest - nothing great for JPM and may lead to 2008 type of financial crisis unless Trump fire his economic team and fly to China and reverse his beautiful "tariff".  Personally Trump got narrow escape after Citibank cut his credit card and no American bank will touch him until saved by HK developers and Singapore's CDL/Hong Leong.  He is not great on financial matters.

Everything is rosy for DBS but be careful as it is sitting on a big time bomb - over invested in India.  It is extremely aggressive in India, expansion due to buying of a bankrupt Indian bank.  Why does HSBC and Standard Chartered with long history from colonial days know that DBS does not.  When time are bad, even so called Indian blue chips can default or find excuse in repaying their debts.  India is so corrupt that the Indians can buy influences with judges too.  Where in the world no matter how corrupt the country, entrepreneur only get to own one or two type of infrastructures like power station and something else.  In India, the blue eye boy, got everything namely power station, telecom, airport, seaport, cables, etc and he claims no corruption.  W

2 hyper scalers CEOnamely Microsoft and Meta have just make statements hedging their CAPEX spendings.  Microsoft is already working with Marvel for cheaper solutions.  Broadcom also worked with Microsoft and remains magnificent in providing cheaper alternatives.  Everybody is thinking hard and quickly to avoid eggs on their faces by sticking with Nvidia after DeepSeek.  They all will be focused on how to get good outcome with less cost. There are many companies who have gone big on AI will now be able to do AI with open source to maximize their.  You don't need Nvidia to reach that outcome.  All these talks about security, distilling and whatever are inventions of those who are deep in Nvidia.  They have to live and die with it.

ASML is not assured.  It can be hit by a quiet launching of EUV machine or an alternate chips equally good as best of Nvidia.  If that happen, chips war is over and ASML can sell without restrictions at collapsing prices.

Seem like they have hit their tops.  If China were to announce the launching of EUV machine or an alternate chips that is equally good as Nvidia, that means end of chips war - free for all and China has promised to see chips like potatoes chips.  All American funds will face massive redemption and some many not survive, like 2008 financial crisis.  We cannot predict when but it will surprise us like DeepSeek.

DeepSeek is hitting all chips stocks today.  Investors are beginning to realize how far ahead is DeepSeek against ChatCGT.  There is heading downloading of the apps.

Will the Dog Collar when the fundamentals of Apple is negative ie long term trend is down. Warren Buffet has proven he is smart and lucky enough to realize it and probably dumped everything.  China is expected to have its own EUV machine anytime up to 3 years and also alternate type of advanced chips.  When it happen, the chips wars is over as everybody will be scrambling to sell anything China wants because that is last chance. At that point Apple PE should be reduced to 5 or 80% down and there goes Walls Street.  Just remember China developed DeepSeek at cost of $6 million whereas Silicon Valley spent billions and billions and is still behind in AI technology.

SMCI and Nvidia have been depressing lately.  They seem to have broken supports and heading to God knows where.  Hope bulls don't panic.

All the good surprises were out now and the rebound is overstretched.  Looks like it will consolidate lower to 31 before challenging the upside.  Healthy long term movement.

SMCI is collapsing now.  Probably heading back to lower 20.