I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data Source: Bloomberg, Complied by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. Fed Cuts Rates as Expected, Powell’s Hawkish Comments Rattle Markets: Is the Stock Market Peaking Again? Last week, the Federal Reserve's FOMC announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the benchmark rate to 4.25%-4.5%. However, the accompanying statements were notably hawkish, with the Cleveland Fed President voting against the decision. Powell also publicly stated, “The current rate policy is no longer as restrictive, and future adjustments will be more cautious.” This aligns with our earlier assessment that the Fed would pause further rate cuts after this one. The dot plot also reflects a more hawkish stance, with three officials suggesting that the Fe
I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data Source: Bloomberg, Complied by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. Positive Signals from China's High-Level Meeting: How to Position Greater China Assets? On December 9, the Chinese Communist Party's Politburo convened a meeting to analyze and discuss economic work for 2025. Compared to previous sessions, this meeting adopted a more positive tone, introducing the term “extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments” for the first time. Moreover, in the overall agenda, “expanding domestic demand comprehensively” was prioritized over “building a modern industrial system,” indicating that addressing “how to expand domestic demand and tackle insufficient effective demand” will be the top priority for China’s economy next year. Nota
I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data Source: Bloomberg, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. U.S. Economic Data Released Intensively: Is the Fed "All in Control"? Last week, the U.S. released its November manufacturing and services PMI. Unlike the past few months, manufacturing PMI saw a significant improvement over previous readings and exceeded market expectations, though it remained below the neutral 50 threshold. In contrast, services PMI sharply declined, falling below expectations but stayed above the 50 line. In other words, manufacturing is warming up, though not sufficiently, while services are weakening, but not alarmingly so. Additionally, November employment data was released last Friday. Non-farm payroll additions, based on corporate su
I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data Source: Bloomberg, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. October PCE Inflation in the U.S. Meets Expectations, Economy Strengthens – Can December Deliver a Rate Cut? Recently, the October PCE inflation data for the U.S. was released. Nominal PCE and core PCE rose by 0.20% and 0.27% month-over-month, respectively, both in line with market expectations. Notably, inflation in the services sector continued to rise with an accelerating pace, while durable goods experienced a continued month-over-month decline. Overall, while inflation has ticked up, it remains within expectations. At the same time, personal income and personal spending of U.S. residents increased by 0.6% and 0.4% month-over-month, respectively, signifi
I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data Source: Bloomberg, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. Trump’s Cabinet Formation is Complete: What Does the Treasury Secretary Choice Mean for the Future Macroeconomic Landscape? Recently, the highly anticipated position of U.S. Treasury Secretary in the new administration was finalized. Trump ultimately did not choose Lutnick, strongly recommended by Musk, but instead nominated Key Square founder and Soros Fund CIO, Bessent. Comparatively, Bessent is a staunch supporter of liberal economics, aligning with Trump on policies such as broad tariffs, tax reform, and financial deregulation, though he is less radical than Lutnick. Specifically, he has proposed the “3-3-3 Policy” to Trump, which entails reducing the f
I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data Source: Bloomberg, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. U.S. inflation remains elevated, the economy is strong, but the stock market is plummeting—what exactly is the market worried about? Last week, the U.S. October inflation data was released. The nominal CPI and core CPI rose by 0.2% and 0.3% month-over-month, respectively, staying consistent with previous increases and meeting market expectations. A closer look reveals that only used car prices saw a notable increase, but given their small weight in the index, the overall impact was minimal. The following day, PPI data also came out as expected, with no surprises. In response, Federal Reserve spokesperson Nick indicated that while inflation remains stubborn,
I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data Source: Bloomberg, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. Trump’s Decisive Victory and Republican Sweep: Implications for U.S. Equities, Bonds, and the Federal Reserve This week, the final outcome of the U.S. election revealed a sweeping win for Trump, who captured all seven battleground states and decisively secured the presidency. Additionally, the Republican Party achieved a majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, establishing unified governance across the executive and legislative branches. Over the coming four years, Trump’s policy implementation is likely to become smoother and have broader impacts. Market reactions have been particularly notable, with beneficiaries like DJT and Tesla
I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data source: Bloomberg, 2024/10/28-2024/11/03, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. Trump’s Odds Decline, U.S. Election Uncertainty Remains – Watch Out for Market Panic This week, the results of the U.S. election are about to be announced. Just a few days ago, the market believed that Trump was almost guaranteed to win, but multiple polls released over the weekend show that the Democratic Party currently holds an advantage in several swing states. As a result, Trump’s odds on Polymarket plummeted from 66% last week to as low as 54%. On some other platforms, Harris's support rate has even surpassed Trump's, leaving the suspense of this election until the last moment. The capital markets quickly reacted as well, with Tr
I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data source: Bloomberg, 2024/10/21-2024/10/27, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. Countdown to the U.S. Election: Markets Betting on a Trump Rally, Caution Needed During Macro Super Week! The highly anticipated U.S. 2024 election is entering its final countdown, with both the Republican and Democratic parties actively campaigning to make a last push. Interestingly, there is a wide disparity in polling data across different media platforms. For instance, CNN's recent poll shows support for both sides nearly tied, while The Economist’s model predicts a 54% chance of Trump returning to the White House. Additionally, external betting site Polymarket indicates a 66% probability for a Trump win. Recently, capital markets
I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data source: Bloomberg, 2024/10/14-2024/10/20, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. The U.S. economy continues to strengthen, and Fed officials suggest a slowdown in rate cuts—can rate cut trades persist? Last week, the U.S. released September retail consumption data, with a month-over-month increase of 0.43%, significantly surpassing market expectations of 0.3%. Excluding gasoline and automobiles, retail sales rose 0.7% month-over-month, with significant increases in the food services and beverage sectors. Additionally, initial jobless claims last week recorded 241,000, better than the market's expected 260,000. At the same time, Fed officials made positive remarks this week. Fed Governor Waller stated, "As long as t