The recent $1 trillion rebound in US equities, led by the S&P 500's impressive single-day gain, has certainly caught attention. However, as you've pointed out, the underlying confidence in the market remains fragile. The elevated implied volatility, below-average trading volume, and the significant jump in Goldman's short-bias basket suggest that the rally might be driven more by short covering than genuine investor conviction. The term "dead cat bounce" refers to a brief, false rally in a declining market, often driven by short covering or other technical factors rather than fundamental changes in the market's outlook. Given the current circumstances, it's possible that the recent rebound could be a dead cat bounce, especially if the underlying concerns about the US outlook and the im
Gold and Copper Market Trends and Influencing Factors Gold Market Trends Gold prices have experienced significant volatility but maintain a bullish long-term outlook, driven by various macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. Price Performance & Volatility Gold has recently surged past $5,000 per ounce, reaching an all-time high of approximately $5,626.80 on January 29, 2026. However, it also saw a sharp correction, plummeting 21.4% to $4,423.20 by February 2, 2026, before rebounding. Despite the pullbacks, gold remains at historical highs, with spot gold currently trading around $5,040–$5,380 per troy ounce. The GLD ETF, a proxy for gold, rallied 29.3% in January 2026 but then retraced about 78% of that gain. Influencing Factors Safe-Haven Demand: Heightened geopolitical risks (e.g., U
The recent earnings report from DBS Group has indeed sparked a notable reaction in the market, with shares slipping 1.9% intraday following the announcement of a 10% year-over-year (YoY) decline in Q4 net profit to S2.36billion, which fell short of the consensus estimate of $2.52 billion. This decline can be largely attributed to a sharp compression in the net interest margin (NIM) to 2.34%, down from 2.77% in the previous year. Despite a strong 13.5% growth in fee income, the bank's profitability was significantly impacted by the narrowing margin. The full-year profit also experienced a dip of 3.2%, which might raise concerns about the bank's ability to maintain its profitability in a challenging interest rate environment. However, it's worth noting that the total dividends for the year j
The recent earnings reports from the Mag 7 companies have been a mixed bag, with Google and Amazon delivering strong growth but also sharply higher capital expenditures (CapEx). This has led to a sell-off in some of these stocks, with Amazon plunging roughly 10% and Microsoft falling about 15% over the past two weeks. On the other hand, Apple has been a bright spot, rallying about 10% over the same period. Meta, which had a strong surge last week, has given back some of those gains this week. Tesla, meanwhile, has dropped sharply and slipped back below $400. The key question now is which of these stocks is entering a buy zone. Based on the recent price action, it seems that Amazon and Microsoft may be due for a bounce. Both stocks have been hit hard by the CapEx concerns, but they still ha
The recent software selloff has indeed been brutal, with many investors panicking over the potential disruption caused by AI. However, it's essential to separate the signal from the noise and assess whether this represents a structural shift or a temporary panic. While AI is undoubtedly a game-changer, it's unlikely to replace traditional SaaS entirely. Instead, AI will likely augment and enhance existing software solutions, creating new opportunities for growth and innovation. The four companies - AppLovin (APP), Unity (U), Cloudflare (NET), and Nebius (NBIS) - are well-positioned to thrive in this new landscape. AppLovin (APP) is a leader in mobile gaming and advertising, with a strong focus on AI-powered ad engines. Unity (U) is a pioneer in game development and has been investing heavi
The stage is set for DBS's highly anticipated earnings release on February 9. With the stock trading at $59.66, just shy of the $60 mark, investors are eagerly awaiting the results to determine if this psychological barrier will be breached. Let's delve into the two possible scenarios: Scenario A: Breakout to $60+ A strongearnings report,particularly in the wealth management segment, could be the catalyst for a breakout above $60. If DBS reports impressive growth in this area, it may exceed market expectations, leading to a sustained rally. This would indicate that the bank's strategic efforts are yielding positive results, and investors are confident in its continued growth prospects. Scenario B: Buy the Rumor, Sell the Fact Conversely, if the market has already factored in the expec
The recent earnings reports from Google, Amazon, and Microsoft have highlighted a common theme: strong growth, but also sharply higher capital expenditures (CapEx). This has led to a mixed reaction from investors, with some stocks recovering from initial declines, while others have continued to fall. Google's earnings report showed strong growth, but the company's CapEx guidance was higher than expected, leading to an initial 7% drop in the stock price. However, the stock managed to recover and closed only 0.6% lower. Amazon, on the other hand, reported strong growth, but its CapEx guidance was even higher, leading to a 10% decline in the stock price. Microsoft's earnings report last week also showed a major surge in CapEx, and the stock has fallen about 15% over the past two weeks. This s
Amazon's Q4 earnings report has sent mixed signals to the market, with the company's revenue growth and cloud computing segment (AWS) performance being positives, but the significant increase in capital expenditures (CapEx) and collapse in free cash flow raising concerns. The 50% YoY increase in CapEx guidance for 2026, which is nearly 40% above consensus estimates, has spooked investors, leading to a decline in Amazon's stock price. The market is worried that Amazon's aggressive investment in areas like data centers, chips, and satellite technology may put pressure on the company's profitability and cash flow. The disclosure of 10B+ annualized revenue from Trainiumand Graviton chips is a positive, but the added costs, including 1B for LEO satellite expenses, are weighing on the compa
The recent crash in silver prices, with a decline of over 16%, can be attributed to the CME's decision to hike margins for gold and silver contracts. The increase in margins, effective after the February 6 close, has forced deleveraging among traders, leading to a sharp sell-off in silver. The higher margins, particularly the 18% increase for silver, have reduced the attractiveness of holding leveraged positions, resulting in a rapid unwinding of trades. The fact that gold prices fell less, with a decline of up to 3.5%, suggests that the yellow metal is showing relative resilience compared to silver. This could be due to gold's larger market size and more diversified investor base, which can help absorb selling pressure. In the short term, margin-driven selling may continue to push silver
The recent decline in storage stocks, including SanDisk (SNDK), Western Digital, Micron Technology, and Seagate Technology, can be attributed to a crowded-trade unwind, where investors are taking profits after a significant run-up in prices. The sharp decline, with SanDisk falling 12% and others following suit, suggests a valuation reset rather than a fundamentals break. The fact that SanDisk's six-month gains exceeded 1,100% and bullish targets were piling up indicates that expectations had become overly optimistic. This correction can be seen as a healthy shakeout, as it brings valuations back to more reasonable levels. However, it's also possible that this could be the start of a deeper de-rating for AI storage stocks. If investors continue to lose risk appetite and profit-taking accele