I spent some time after yesterday's earnings report running a few rough valuation scenarios for Oracle over the next several years. These estimates are based on Oracle's current $638B RPO (backlog), current EPS of approximately $7.63, and the continued expansion of its AI infrastructure business. This is simply my personal projection framework, not investment advice. **Conservative Case** - Revenue: ~$110B - EPS: ~$10 - P/E: 30x - Fair Value: ~$300/share **Base Case** - Revenue: ~$130B - EPS: ~$13 - P/E: 35x - Fair Value: ~$450–500/share **AI Infrastructure Supercycle** - Revenue: $150B+ - EPS: $15–18 - P/E: 40x - Fair Value: ~$600–720/share At today's price, Wall Street seems focused on debt, CapEx, and short-term volatility. I'm more focused on Oracle's AI growth, cloud expansion, and th
$Oracle(ORCL)$ This stock can swing wildly in both directions. People seem to forget that just two weeks ago, it went from $180 to $250 in about a week. Whether you're a bull or a bear, know when to step back. Greed is what really hurts people in this market.
$Oracle(ORCL)$ Watching ORCL drop from $250 to $175 in a week is just absurd. This is a company worth hundreds of billions of dollars, not some penny stock trading on hype and rumors. The way quant funds and algos can push around mega-cap companies these days is unbelievable. At times, the market feels more like a casino than a mechanism for valuing businesses. For retail investors, the only way to avoid getting caught in this is to hold through the volatility and think in years, not days.
$Oracle(ORCL)$ A massive cup and handle bullish pattern has been spotted. The measured move of this pattern is around the 365 area. Currently, the handle formation is in progress and is expected to complete around the 170 support area. The neckline of the cup is around 250-255. This means if the 170 support holds, there's a high chance of testing 250, and once that neckline is broken to the upside, the measured move could be completed next (around 360). So first things first – the 170 support needs to hold, otherwise the chances of this pattern being invalidated would increase.
$Nokia Oyj(NOK)$ Shorts are called shorts for a reason. They're in it to get out as quickly as possible. It's like the end of the world from their perspective when a long-term investor sees an opportunity to buy or add, with a time horizon beyond just the next few days or weeks. NOK is developing its AI infrastructure and already has the right connections to move forward. Just my opinion.
The growth in RPO for Oracle is honestly getting a bit ridiculous. They added $85 billion in backlog sequentially last quarter, while OCI growth accelerated to 93%. That's not normal enterprise software growth anymore. What stands out to me: Bookings are still outrunning revenue conversion by roughly 4-to-1. The Q1 guide suggests that conversion is finally starting to ramp up. Customers are already covering $75 billion of infrastructure costs themselves. So when people see the $40 billion financing plan and panic, I don't think they fully realize how much demand is already locked in. It feels like Oracle is building one of the most aggressive AI infrastructure expansions in the market right now. And demand still looks ahead of supply. I keep seeing people treat
$Nokia Oyj(NOK)$ Down after hours, but I think it could run tomorrow to get ahead of a potential big move next week after the SpaceX IPO. Just my take, a 50/50 shot.
$Nokia Oyj(NOK)$ Oracle's miss suggests a flat or red day tomorrow. However, I still think we'll see a turnaround this week. This downside has little to do with the company itself, but more with the market or the broader economy. People should remember that Nokia is still a European company, partially shielded from US economic drama. We haven't even begun to take advantage of the EU's void in AI companies; when they push that agenda, we'll be at the forefront—from AI to defense.
$Nokia Oyj(NOK)$ There's a lot of short-term money and weak hands with this one. The selling pressure is something I haven't seen much before. This will pass, and likely sooner than later. NOK is still the same company it was last week and last month. A resolution to the Iran situation could lower oil prices and inflation. If the market rebounds from that, the upside reversal could be significant. Patience is key.