$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Oil being weaponized is bullish for new all-time highs, only 40 SPX points away. But honestly, it feels more like an insane fraud that no one cares about.
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Oil might spike short term, but the US Navy blocking ships means Iran can't sell its 2 million barrels a day. They lose $200 million daily, which was their only lifeline, leaving no cash to pay troops. Plus, China won't be happy and will tighten the screws. I think they'll come to the table quickly. All Trump has to do is agree to pay more for civilian infrastructure repairs, and I believe they'll deal. SPY should get back to ATHs within a few weeks. Then it depends on the 2nd quarter, inflation, and especially if Asian factories start idling in a few weeks. Those chip plants rely on by-products like helium with no real backup plans.
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Honestly, the puts holders are angry because they held and thought there wouldn't be a ceasefire. But in what world would it benefit the USA to violate the deal, or even Iran? At this point, I'd rather leave it as is and make a full stable deal than back out. They aren't going to back out at 5 pm. Delusional people, I swear.
$United States Oil Fund LP(USO)$ So the ceasefire is in effect, but nothing has actually changed. Iran still has the Strait of Hormuz closed unless you pay up big time. That means oil will still hit $200, because that's what they'll charge for passage.
$United States Oil Fund LP(USO)$ So he TACOs and the strait stays closed... oil goes higher. Then he blows up everything and of course the strait stays closed... oil goes higher. So in what imaginary fantasy do you have that Iran just surrenders and oil goes lower?
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ The whole market is waiting for a 'deal' or a taco today. It's kind of like all those trade 'deals' that sparked rallies before. Or maybe just a framework for further discussions, an understanding about a possible deal. None of that has actually happened. Rally time!