$Intel(INTC)$Gelsinger is making giant decisions now, which they say should've been made 18 months ago. Many analysts absolutely concur, that even 20 fabs or 50 fabs, will not produce the catalyst of acceleration, and profitability. It won't ensure anything significant, except the disadvantageous, obvious, extreme void in innovation, let alone remain in the black, and even somewhat competitive, which they already speculate, obviously because of these diminishing profits at this rate. This lack of creativity in Intel which only $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ , and $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ , obviously continuously don't lack, is a compelling neg
$Broadcom(AVGO)$I trimmed AVGO above $165, that I bought back some of what I trimmed under $155, and that I would buy more AVGO if it fell below $142. So, NOW I increased my position in AVGO by 33%, bringing my largest holding up to the full, over-weighted position that I once held. Big gainer for me. I think this will drop to 130 again, maybe even lower.Because semis are getting crushed, I also took advantage of the opportunity to buy more $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$$Micron Technology(MU)$$Applied Materials(AMAT)$$Qualcomm(QCOM)$. These chips are es
$Intel(INTC)$I don't own any INTC but I don't think many on here realize how ABSOLUTELY DESPERATE the major fabless chip cos are for a second source of leading edge fab services. Intel being USA-based is a bonus cherry on top. There's a whole industry that wants Intel to succeed and will tolerate bumps in the road along the way. Low initial yields on a new node are not unheard of and it would be wrong to think of this news, even if true, as a death sentence for Intel. That said Intel has already told us not to expect profits from this venture for several years so IMHO shares don't look like a great opportunity here.
$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$The price of this stock is disconnected from fundamentals. The stock price is driven by sentiment which is still pretty good for this stock. However, the narrative of "NVDA wins 100% of AI chip space and there's no close second" can and will change when the revenue starts slowing and margins start to compress. Revenue growth will slow soon given that you can't keep up 200% revenue growth forever. In fact even if NVDA posts 100% revenue growth, that is still a narrative violation since that would represent a major drop in growth. As far as margins compressing, It could be right that margins will stay fat for years. But as someone who follows the AI chip space closely, I see that the next big AI narrativ
$Apple(AAPL)$As impressive as Apple is, it’s really a one-trick pony. If the iPhone stumbles, almost everything else tends to drop with it. That’s why I think it’s smart to diversify your investments, no matter what the tax hit might be. Relying too much on one company can be risky—better to spread things out and play it safe.
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$There is no growth in TSLAs future that justifies this price...not even close. Book value of $20. One year from now they'll be well on their way to being a niche player in the EV market, and there will be no significant revenue from robots, AI, or energy storage to justify this price. It's all a mirage.YOU PREDICT! Will Tesla Stock Soar or Sink by December 31, 2023? - AutoSpies Auto News
$Procter & Gamble(PG)$It's nice to see PG and other consumer staple stocks perk up a bit but even with its recent movement, PG's total return for two years has trailed the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ by 11.6%. It's even worse for my position--come Sept 6 it will be 19 years since I initiated my PG position. PG has lagged the market and its peers by 125% and 98% respectively.
$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$SMCI is definitely looking like it's circling the drain right now, and it feels like the buzzards are already swooping in. If you didn’t short it at 450 today, don’t worry—there’s still a chance to jump in at 400 tomorrow and make some serious cash. With the scandal hanging over it, we could see a 100-point drop any day now. It’s a wild ride, but if you’re ready to take the plunge, you might just cash in big this week!
$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$The vast majority of NVDA's revenue comes from 5 companies spending nearly their entire free cash flow on GPUs. What happens when those companies build out their stack and don't need to dump their entire free cash flow into GPUs anymore? No-one seems to be doing fundamental valuations these days, but Nvidia belongs at $50. It will follow $SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ lower
$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$Is Nvidia a bad company? no probably not. Was a lot of the demand for high end GPU's at ridiculous margins likely severely overdone? Most definitely. Nvidia announcing a lame buyback program that is equivalent to 1 year of their cashflow, while at ATH prices while Jensen is selling off shares, and while one of their largest customers is now under heavy scrutiny in my mind signals a turn in the market. Without some groundbreaking new launch from an AI company like OpenAI to strengthen this bull market, I'm predicting a 20-30% short term downside in Nvidia through end of 2024, followed by a further correction in 2025 down to $30/share range.Most interesting of all is the Fed's recent pivot on interest ra