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2021-04-30

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Apple's Earnings Smasher: No Room For Bearishness

Apple delivered flawless fiscal second quarter results across its product portfolio and geographical segments.The earnings smasher was further enabled by easy comps and lingering stay-at-home tailwinds.Apple is approaching all-time highs. But, due to substantially higher 2021 projected EPS, I estimate that P/E has dipped to pre-pandemic levels.iPhone growth of 66%, supported primarily by the strong performance of the Pro and Pro Max models;iPad growth of 79%, which compares favorably to Microsof

Apple's Earnings Smasher: No Room For Bearishness

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But, due to substantially higher 2021 projected EPS, I estimate that P/E has dipped to pre-pandemic levels.iPhone growth of 66%, supported primarily by the strong performance of the Pro and Pro Max models;iPad growth of 79%, which compares favorably to Microsof","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Apple delivered flawless fiscal second quarter results across its product portfolio and geographical segments.</li>\n <li>The earnings smasher was further enabled by easy comps and lingering stay-at-home tailwinds.</li>\n <li>Apple is approaching all-time highs. But, due to substantially higher 2021 projected EPS, I estimate that P/E has dipped to pre-pandemic levels.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92d2bfb46715d165b9ab77302c6961b7\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>In&nbsp;my earnings preview, I sounded skeptical that Apple (AAPL) could see its stock climb solely on the back of above consensus fiscal second quarter results. In my view, the bar was set high enough. Bullishness would most likely be triggered, if at all, by (1) reinstatement of guidance and/or (2) lavish cash return to shareholders, in the form of higher dividends or share repurchases.</p>\n<p>Yes, Apple provided partial guidance for fiscal third quarter, and both the dividend and buyback programs were boosted. But what impressed the most, in my opinion, was the extent of&nbsp;Apple's Q2 beat.</p>\n<p>The company's performance bordered \"unbelievable,\" as Morgan Stanley's analyst pointed out during the conference call. With a historic earnings smasher, Apple made sure to leave no room for post-earnings bearishness.</p>\n<p><b>Earnings crusher</b></p>\n<p>Analyzing Apple's results was relatively easy this time. Virtually all metrics climbed substantially YOY – from total company and per-segment revenues to margins, earnings and cash flow. There was virtually no bad news to speak of.</p>\n<p>Below are the highlights of Apple's results, delivered on April 28. To the best of my knowledge, none of the figures below are typos, as much as they might seem to be.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ca500cb00a59b1562e20ea213f11050\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"189\"><span>Source: DM Martins Research, data from company report</span></p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>iPhone</b>&nbsp;growth of 66%, supported primarily by the strong performance of the Pro and Pro Max models;</li>\n <li><b>iPad</b>&nbsp;growth of 79%, which compares favorably to Microsoft's (MSFT) 12% increase in Surface revenues and the broad industry's&nbsp;projected&nbsp;double-digit decline in tablet unit sales in first calendar quarter;</li>\n <li><b>Mac</b>&nbsp;growth of 70%, a result of (1) a strong lineup of M1-equipped devices and (2) stay-at-home trends still playing a crucial role in global markets, particularly Europe;</li>\n <li><b>Services</b>&nbsp;growth of 27% that, contrary to popular belief, accelerated compared to pre-pandemic levels;</li>\n <li><b>Greater China</b>&nbsp;growth of 87%, due in part to the country being ahead in the COVID-19 cycle, definitely turning this market from a 2015-2020 loser into a winner over the past six months;</li>\n <li><b>Gross margin</b>&nbsp;expansion of over four percentage points due to cost savings and favorable mix;</li>\n <li><b>Op margin</b>&nbsp;expansion of more than eight percentage points due to gross margin increase and gains of scale.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>To be fair, a few one-off factors may have helped to turn an otherwise strong second quarter into a record-shattering one. The odd timing in the launch of the iPhone 12 in 2020 created a revenue gap in the holiday period that is still being smoothed out today. Also, COVID-19 has lasted longer than some may have wished in parts of the world, extending the stay-at-home tailwinds.</p>\n<p><b>Stock is cheap again</b></p>\n<p>With impressive results under the belt, Apple climbed modestly after the closing bell. Between the regular and after-hours trading sessions, the stock gained about 1.5%, pushing shares closer to their all-time high of $143.</p>\n<p>Despite the small earnings day gains, Apple exits this season a more affordable stock. The math is fairly simple:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>The monstrous 42-cent Q2 EPS beat alone should push fiscal 2021 consensus higher, to $4.87;</li>\n <li>Guidance for Q3 was incomplete, but I conservatively estimate that it points at another 20-cent gap to consensus, at least. Both quarters combined add up to new fiscal 2021 EPS expectations of about $5.10.</li>\n</ol>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e4cd98b9d528f253ba92a277e6dab5f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Apple's after-hours share price of $136 divided by a conservative $5.10 in fiscal 2021 EPS suggests a current-year P/E of only 26.8x. This is roughly in line with AAPL's pre-pandemic valuation multiple, and lower than those of tech peers whose stocks are sometimes considered \"value,\" like Facebook (FB) and Alphabet (GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL). See chart above.</p>\n<p>Just like that, following a killer earnings report, Apple stock starts to look cheap once again – despite shares having climbed about 90% in the past 12 months alone.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple's Earnings Smasher: No Room For Bearishness</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple's Earnings Smasher: No Room For Bearishness\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-29 16:58 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4422326-apple-earnings-smasher-no-room-for-bearishness-aapl><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple delivered flawless fiscal second quarter results across its product portfolio and geographical segments.\nThe earnings smasher was further enabled by easy comps and lingering stay-at-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4422326-apple-earnings-smasher-no-room-for-bearishness-aapl\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4422326-apple-earnings-smasher-no-room-for-bearishness-aapl","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1198510299","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple delivered flawless fiscal second quarter results across its product portfolio and geographical segments.\nThe earnings smasher was further enabled by easy comps and lingering stay-at-home tailwinds.\nApple is approaching all-time highs. But, due to substantially higher 2021 projected EPS, I estimate that P/E has dipped to pre-pandemic levels.\n\nPhoto by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nIn my earnings preview, I sounded skeptical that Apple (AAPL) could see its stock climb solely on the back of above consensus fiscal second quarter results. In my view, the bar was set high enough. Bullishness would most likely be triggered, if at all, by (1) reinstatement of guidance and/or (2) lavish cash return to shareholders, in the form of higher dividends or share repurchases.\nYes, Apple provided partial guidance for fiscal third quarter, and both the dividend and buyback programs were boosted. But what impressed the most, in my opinion, was the extent of Apple's Q2 beat.\nThe company's performance bordered \"unbelievable,\" as Morgan Stanley's analyst pointed out during the conference call. With a historic earnings smasher, Apple made sure to leave no room for post-earnings bearishness.\nEarnings crusher\nAnalyzing Apple's results was relatively easy this time. Virtually all metrics climbed substantially YOY – from total company and per-segment revenues to margins, earnings and cash flow. There was virtually no bad news to speak of.\nBelow are the highlights of Apple's results, delivered on April 28. To the best of my knowledge, none of the figures below are typos, as much as they might seem to be.\nSource: DM Martins Research, data from company report\n\niPhone growth of 66%, supported primarily by the strong performance of the Pro and Pro Max models;\niPad growth of 79%, which compares favorably to Microsoft's (MSFT) 12% increase in Surface revenues and the broad industry's projected double-digit decline in tablet unit sales in first calendar quarter;\nMac growth of 70%, a result of (1) a strong lineup of M1-equipped devices and (2) stay-at-home trends still playing a crucial role in global markets, particularly Europe;\nServices growth of 27% that, contrary to popular belief, accelerated compared to pre-pandemic levels;\nGreater China growth of 87%, due in part to the country being ahead in the COVID-19 cycle, definitely turning this market from a 2015-2020 loser into a winner over the past six months;\nGross margin expansion of over four percentage points due to cost savings and favorable mix;\nOp margin expansion of more than eight percentage points due to gross margin increase and gains of scale.\n\nTo be fair, a few one-off factors may have helped to turn an otherwise strong second quarter into a record-shattering one. The odd timing in the launch of the iPhone 12 in 2020 created a revenue gap in the holiday period that is still being smoothed out today. Also, COVID-19 has lasted longer than some may have wished in parts of the world, extending the stay-at-home tailwinds.\nStock is cheap again\nWith impressive results under the belt, Apple climbed modestly after the closing bell. Between the regular and after-hours trading sessions, the stock gained about 1.5%, pushing shares closer to their all-time high of $143.\nDespite the small earnings day gains, Apple exits this season a more affordable stock. The math is fairly simple:\n\nThe monstrous 42-cent Q2 EPS beat alone should push fiscal 2021 consensus higher, to $4.87;\nGuidance for Q3 was incomplete, but I conservatively estimate that it points at another 20-cent gap to consensus, at least. Both quarters combined add up to new fiscal 2021 EPS expectations of about $5.10.\n\nData by YCharts\nApple's after-hours share price of $136 divided by a conservative $5.10 in fiscal 2021 EPS suggests a current-year P/E of only 26.8x. This is roughly in line with AAPL's pre-pandemic valuation multiple, and lower than those of tech peers whose stocks are sometimes considered \"value,\" like Facebook (FB) and Alphabet (GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL). See chart above.\nJust like that, following a killer earnings report, Apple stock starts to look cheap once again – despite shares having climbed about 90% in the past 12 months alone.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":73,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}