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2021-05-06

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"Playing devil's advocate" with the Fed? JPMorgan Stanley: Prepare for persistent inflation

摩根大通定量分析师主管马尔科•科拉诺维奇(Marko Kolanovic)表示，未来持续通胀即将来临，许多投资者在资产配置上仍未做好准备。具体来看，随着过去10年全球资产配置向增长型、ESG型和低波

"Playing devil's advocate" with the Fed? JPMorgan Stanley: Prepare for persistent inflation

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JPMorgan Stanley: Prepare for persistent inflation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174686165","media":"Wind万得","summary":"摩根大通定量分析师主管马尔科•科拉诺维奇(Marko Kolanovic)表示，未来持续通胀即将来临，许多投资者在资产配置上仍未做好准备。\n具体来看，随着过去10年全球资产配置向增长型、ESG型和低波","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Marko Kolanovic, head of quantitative analysts, said that with persistent inflation ahead, many investors are still unprepared for asset allocation.</p><p>Specifically, as global asset allocations have shifted towards growth, ESG, and low volatility over the past decade (all of which are negatively correlated with inflation), Kolanovic warned that \"most portfolios are now Vulnerable to potential inflationary shocks.\"</p><p>Kolanovic's biggest concern is whether asset managers will drastically adjust their asset allocations to signal an increased likelihood of persistent inflation. JPMorgan analysts said: \"A shift in asset allocation will occur, with investors shifting from low-volatility assets to value stocks and increasing their allocation to direct inflation hedging assets such as commodities.\"</p><p>JPMorgan expects this trend to continue during the reopening of the global economy in the second half of this year. Considering that unemployment remains high and a decade of lower-than-expected inflation, central banks are likely to tolerate higher inflation and see it as a temporary phenomenon. Instead of taking risks, a portfolio manager may reconfigure the portfolio.</p><p>So if Kolanovic is right, how should portfolio managers reconfigure their portfolios to deal with more persistent inflation risks? Here is the answer of JPMorgan analysts:</p><p>First, the duration of bonds should be shortened and reallocated to commodities and equities. Commodity indexes (such as the S&P GSCI) may be the most direct hedge against inflation. Commodities are also cheap from a historical perspective-commodities have been the only major asset class that has declined in absolute terms over the past 10 years (underperformance is serious, primarily due to lower energy prices). Since 2010, the S&P 500 has quadrupled and the S&P GSCI has fallen nearly 40%.</p><p>In terms of stocks, investors should buy value stocks and short low volatility stocks. Growth and value stocks are also negatively correlated with inflation. Investors should also recognize that by embracing ESG, they introduce additional short inflation exposure into their portfolios (for example, by going long technology stocks and shorting energy exposure).</p><p><b>JPMorgan's remarks are the opposite of policymakers</b></p><p>It is worth noting that JPMorgan's expectations for continued inflation in the future are contrary to the recent remarks of Treasury Secretary Yellen and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell.</p><p>Yellen told the Wall Street Journal's CEO Council summit on Tuesday that inflation is unlikely to be a problem, and if it does, the Fed can handle it.</p><p>Yellen said on Tuesday that she neither predicted nor recommended a Fed rate hike over President Joe Biden's spending plans, contradicting her comments earlier in the day that rate hike may be needed to prevent the economy from overheating. She said earlier on Tuesday that if the Biden administration's roughly $4 trillion spending plan is implemented, the Fed may have to raise interest rates to prevent the economy from overheating.</p><p>Yellen's comments come amid discussion of inflation risks. In the year to March, the consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.6%, after the 1.7% increase in February. Long-term Treasury Bond yields also rose on signs of a strengthening economy and expectations that the Federal Reserve will have to rate hike earlier than officials suggested.</p><p>She was in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600558\">Atlantic</a>\"Interest rates are likely to rise somewhat to ensure our economy doesn't overheat, even though the additional spending is relatively small relative to the size of the economy,\" said in a pre-recorded interview at the Atlantic's Future economy Summit.</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has also said that he is not worried about the continued rise in inflation and expects price increases to subside in the coming months. Despite the improved economic outlook, most Fed officials expect to maintain ultra-low interest rates through 2023, according to forecasts presented at the March policy meeting. Only seven of the 18 policymakers expect to raise interest rates in 2022 or 2023.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Playing devil's advocate\" with the Fed? 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JPMorgan Stanley: Prepare for persistent inflation\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-06 09:13</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Marko Kolanovic, head of quantitative analysts, said that with persistent inflation ahead, many investors are still unprepared for asset allocation.</p><p>Specifically, as global asset allocations have shifted towards growth, ESG, and low volatility over the past decade (all of which are negatively correlated with inflation), Kolanovic warned that \"most portfolios are now Vulnerable to potential inflationary shocks.\"</p><p>Kolanovic's biggest concern is whether asset managers will drastically adjust their asset allocations to signal an increased likelihood of persistent inflation. JPMorgan analysts said: \"A shift in asset allocation will occur, with investors shifting from low-volatility assets to value stocks and increasing their allocation to direct inflation hedging assets such as commodities.\"</p><p>JPMorgan expects this trend to continue during the reopening of the global economy in the second half of this year. Considering that unemployment remains high and a decade of lower-than-expected inflation, central banks are likely to tolerate higher inflation and see it as a temporary phenomenon. Instead of taking risks, a portfolio manager may reconfigure the portfolio.</p><p>So if Kolanovic is right, how should portfolio managers reconfigure their portfolios to deal with more persistent inflation risks? Here is the answer of JPMorgan analysts:</p><p>First, the duration of bonds should be shortened and reallocated to commodities and equities. Commodity indexes (such as the S&P GSCI) may be the most direct hedge against inflation. Commodities are also cheap from a historical perspective-commodities have been the only major asset class that has declined in absolute terms over the past 10 years (underperformance is serious, primarily due to lower energy prices). Since 2010, the S&P 500 has quadrupled and the S&P GSCI has fallen nearly 40%.</p><p>In terms of stocks, investors should buy value stocks and short low volatility stocks. Growth and value stocks are also negatively correlated with inflation. Investors should also recognize that by embracing ESG, they introduce additional short inflation exposure into their portfolios (for example, by going long technology stocks and shorting energy exposure).</p><p><b>JPMorgan's remarks are the opposite of policymakers</b></p><p>It is worth noting that JPMorgan's expectations for continued inflation in the future are contrary to the recent remarks of Treasury Secretary Yellen and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell.</p><p>Yellen told the Wall Street Journal's CEO Council summit on Tuesday that inflation is unlikely to be a problem, and if it does, the Fed can handle it.</p><p>Yellen said on Tuesday that she neither predicted nor recommended a Fed rate hike over President Joe Biden's spending plans, contradicting her comments earlier in the day that rate hike may be needed to prevent the economy from overheating. She said earlier on Tuesday that if the Biden administration's roughly $4 trillion spending plan is implemented, the Fed may have to raise interest rates to prevent the economy from overheating.</p><p>Yellen's comments come amid discussion of inflation risks. In the year to March, the consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.6%, after the 1.7% increase in February. Long-term Treasury Bond yields also rose on signs of a strengthening economy and expectations that the Federal Reserve will have to rate hike earlier than officials suggested.</p><p>She was in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600558\">Atlantic</a>\"Interest rates are likely to rise somewhat to ensure our economy doesn't overheat, even though the additional spending is relatively small relative to the size of the economy,\" said in a pre-recorded interview at the Atlantic's Future economy Summit.</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has also said that he is not worried about the continued rise in inflation and expects price increases to subside in the coming months. Despite the improved economic outlook, most Fed officials expect to maintain ultra-low interest rates through 2023, according to forecasts presented at the March policy meeting. Only seven of the 18 policymakers expect to raise interest rates in 2022 or 2023.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e2f636e805bfca87903ab08fc842298","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","JPM":"摩根大通",".DJI":"道琼斯","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174686165","content_text":"摩根大通定量分析师主管马尔科•科拉诺维奇(Marko Kolanovic)表示，未来持续通胀即将来临，许多投资者在资产配置上仍未做好准备。\n具体来看，随着过去10年全球资产配置向增长型、ESG型和低波动性型(所有这些类型都与通胀呈负相关)转变，科拉诺维奇警告称，“大多数投资组合现在很容易受到潜在通胀冲击的影响。”\n科拉诺维奇最关心的问题是，资产管理公司是否会大幅调整资产配置，以表示通胀持续的可能性增加。小摩分析师表示：“资产配置的转变会发生，投资者会从低波动资产向价值类个股转变，并增加对大宗商品等直接通胀对冲资产的配置。”\n小摩预计，在今年下半年全球经济重新开放期间，这一趋势将持续下去。考虑到失业率依然居高不下，以及十年来的通胀低于预期，各国央行可能会容忍更高的通胀，并将其视为暂时现象。投资组合经理可能不会冒险，而是会重新配置投资组合。\n那么，如果科拉诺维奇是对的，投资组合经理应该如何重新配置他们的组合，以应对更持续的通胀风险?下面是小摩分析师的回答:\n首先，应该缩短债券的久期，并将其重新配置为大宗商品和股票。大宗商品指数(如标普GSCI)可能是最直接的通胀对冲工具。从历史的角度来看，大宗商品也很便宜——过去10年，大宗商品是唯一绝对值下降的主要资产类别(表现不佳的情况很严重，主要是由于能源价格下跌)。自2010年以来，标准普尔500指数上涨了四倍，标准普尔GSCI指数下跌了近40%。\n在股票方面，投资者应采取买入价值型和做空低波动性个股的方式。成长股和价值股也与通胀呈负相关。投资者还应该认识到，通过接受ESG，他们在投资组合中引入了额外的空头通胀敞口(例如，通过做多科技股和做空能源敞口)。\n小摩言论与政策制定者相反\n值得注意的是，小摩对于未来持续通胀的预期，与财政部长耶伦及美联储主席鲍威尔近期言论相反。\n耶伦周二在《华尔街日报》首席执行长理事会峰会上说，通胀不太可能成为一个问题，如果它真的成为一个问题，美联储能够处理。\n耶伦在周二表示，她既不预测也不建议美联储因拜登总统的支出计划而加息，这与她当天早些时候有关可能需要加息以防止经济过热的言论相左。她在周二早些时候表示，如果拜登政府的约4万亿美元支出计划得以实施，美联储可能不得不提高利率，以防止经济过热。\n耶伦发表上述言论之际，人们对通胀风险已有所讨论。在截至3月份的一年里，消费者价格指数(CPI)上涨了2.6%，2月份的涨幅为1.7%。长期国债收益率也有所上升，因有迹象显示经济走强，且市场预期美联储将不得不比官员们暗示的更早加息。\n她在大西洋未来经济峰会(Atlantic 's Future economy Summit)上接受预先录制的采访时说:“利率可能会有所上升，以确保我们的经济不会过热，尽管额外支出相对于经济规模来说相对较小。”\n美联储主席鲍威尔也曾表示，并不担心通胀持续上升，预计未来几个月的价格上涨将平息。尽管经济前景有所改善，但根据三月份政策会议上提交的预测，大多数美联储官员预计到2023年仍将维持超低利率。18位决策者中只有7位预计在2022年或2023年提高利率。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SDS":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"JPM":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"QID":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2070,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}