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2021-06-22

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The bull market will get a $500 billion cash injection in the second half, Goldman says

American families and professional money managers will drive demand for stocks for the remainder of

The bull market will get a $500 billion cash injection in the second half, Goldman says

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But high cash balances and continued retail participation in equity markets should bolster household equity demand,” Goldman Chief U.S. Equity Strategist David Kostin wrote in a note published Friday.\nSpecifically, Goldman raised its forecast for 2021 household net equity buying to $400 billion from $350 billion. Kostin noted that U.S. equity inflows are on pace for their strongest first half of a calendar year since at least 2007.\nCorporations should comprise the largest source of equity demand for the remainder of 2021, Goldman said, as stock buybacks accelerate and equity issuance slows from peak levels in the first quarter.\nWhile choppy in recent weeks, the U.S. stock market is off to a strong 2021 with almost half the year complete. The S&P 500 is up more than 11% since January, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite are up 9.7% and 8.6%, respectively.\nThose gains, already in excess of the average calendar year’s return, came as investors pivoted back into stocks sensitive to the broader economy and so-called reopening trades as the worst of the Covid-19 pandemic came to an end in the U.S. Further,lower bond yieldshave recently helped fuelrenewed interest in growth stocks, including tech names.\nThe Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund is up about 39% year to date as a rebound in demand for travel, and oil, sent crude prices back toward pre-pandemic highs.\nWhile Kostin did not issue any sector-specific recommendations in his note, he did tick off a number of factors that he says support his overarching bullish hypothesis.\nHe first cited a record $5.5 trillion of cash sitting on the financial “sidelines,” waiting to be deployed by fund managers. With the Federal Reserve unlikely to adjust the federal funds rate until late 2023, he argued, there’s little incentive to hold cash in the near term.\nGoldman also categorized current credit conditions as “unattractive,” with the bank’s rates strategists forecasting the rate on the 10-year Treasury note to climb about 45 basis points to 1.9% by year’s end.\nLast, Kostin said he expects a meaningful return of retail traders after a lull in the spring.\nIndividual traders sparked a spike in call option volumes in January and February, fueled in part by excess savings and federal stimulus checks. While some of that trading — in names likeGameStopandAMC Entertainment— drew concerns of mania, it underscored the power retail investors wield in the financial markets.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":79,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}