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Xiaogoute
2021-06-26

Combing the reports of eight major securities firms: How to invest in the second half of the year?

随着6月临近尾声，不少券商发布了下半年宏观和资产配置报告。从八大券商对下半年宏观经济的预测来看，整体方向相对一致，但结构上还是存在一些比较明显的分歧，故而对资产配置的建议也是不尽相同。 01、关于全球

Combing the reports of eight major securities firms: How to invest in the second half of the year?

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·2021-06-26
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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":125555470,"tweetId":"125555470","gmtCreate":1624681871790,"gmtModify":1703843563317,"author":{"id":3586950313792724,"idStr":"3586950313792724","authorId":3586950313792724,"authorIdStr":"3586950313792724","name":"Xiaogoute","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Ok</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Ok</body></html>","text":"Ok","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/125555470","repostId":1105440789,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105440789","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1624676231,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1105440789?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-26 10:57","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Combing the reports of eight major securities firms: How to invest in the second half of the year?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105440789","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"随着6月临近尾声，不少券商发布了下半年宏观和资产配置报告。从八大券商对下半年宏观经济的预测来看，整体方向相对一致，但结构上还是存在一些比较明显的分歧，故而对资产配置的建议也是不尽相同。\n01、关于全球","content":"As June draws to a close, many brokers have released macro and asset allocation reports for the second half of the year. Judging from the macroeconomic forecasts of the eight major securities firms in the second half of the year, the overall direction is relatively consistent, but there are still some obvious differences in the structure, so the suggestions on asset allocation are also different.01. About the global economyAs developed countries (especially the United States) began to lead the global recovery this year, the recovery and liquidity of overseas economies have brought more important marginal variables to the domestic economy and asset allocation. Most brokerage research agrees to remain cautiously optimistic about global epidemic control in the second half of the year. The global recovery has entered a stage of resonance recovery. The imbalance will be alleviated.Among them, Xingye,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>It said that the main line of recovery will shift to service consumption: \"The growth rate of U.S. commodity consumption will peak and fall due to the decline of fiscal stimulus and the partial overdraft of demand, while the superimposed gap of service consumption due to the liberalization of epidemic constraints is large, and the certainty of high-slope recovery is strong. It may bring two effects: First, the pulling effect of the U.S. economic recovery on China's exports may decline; The second is to aggravate the mismatch between labor supply and demand in the United States and push up the risk of negative feedback between \"wage inflation and inflation\". \" \"The gap between supply and demand in the United States is expected to converge, and service consumption will relay commodity consumption as the main support.\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000776\">GF Securities</a>It is believed that Europe and the United States will enter an overheating period marked by comprehensive capital: \"The constraints of the epidemic on the U.S. and European economies may be lifted at the beginning of Q3 and Q4 successively. In the second half of the year, the United States and Europe may successively enter an economic overheating period marked by comprehensive capital expenditure. The demand of To B end (production end) has begun to increase significantly, which will make the highlights of global trade shift to the middle and upper reaches in the second half of the year.\"Wherein,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>Relatively cautious, they believe that the road to easing the global epidemic is not smooth. \"Variant viruses in India and South America are complicating the global prevention and control situation again, and the road to recovery of global service consumption in the second half of the year is expected to remain bumpy; after the withdrawal of excessive subsidies, the recovery of manufacturing employment still has a long way to go. The curse of potential output will move downward permanently continues.\"02. About global inflationMost brokers have relatively consistent views on inflation, agreeing that prices have risen rapidly due to the impact of base, epidemic situation, logistics and supply and demand dislocation. In the future, with the gradual recovery of the production side and the possible weakening of support from the demand side after the decline of financial subsidies, the gap between supply and demand is expected to gradually converge after Q3. At the same time, the cardinal effect weakens. At the end of the year, the overall inflation in the United States fell year-on-among<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>Said: The mismatch between labor supply and demand in the United States has pushed up the risk of negative feedback of \"wage inflation\"-\"inflation\" in the United States. U.S. inflation may exceed market expectations.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01776\">GF Securities</a>It is believed that the current global \"high inflation\" may be a structural problem. The only major economies whose CPI was significantly higher than the 2011-2019 average year-on-year were India and the United States. Global inflation in the second half of the year may have four characteristics: after the base switch, the PPI center of most economies around the world is expected to fall year-on-year; The upward slope of transportation costs such as shipping is constrained, and imported inflationary pressures in some countries are expected to ease; The U.S. CPI center moved down year-on-year but not low, and commodity inflationary pressure declined but service inflation increased; The CPI center of exporting countries may show varying degrees of upward movement year-on-year.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600837\">Haitong Securities</a>Mentioned: The easing of the suppression of service consumption will increase the inflationary pressure on the service industry, which accounts for more than 60% of U.S. inflation.03. About economic policy and mobilityIn terms of U.S. monetary policy, there has almost been a consensus on discussions in the third quarter and the implementation of QETaper at the end of the year or early next year. The obvious differences lie in the degree of normalization of monetary policy and its impact on liquidity.Industrial Securities said: In the medium and long term, the debt pressure of the U.S. government has hit a record high after the epidemic, and Biden's 2022 fiscal budget has further aggravated the debt pressure of the United States. The dependence of U.S. debt on the Federal Reserve has risen sharply, which may mean that the Federal Reserve is \"overwhelmed\".Guangfa,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601066\">China Securities Investment</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06030\">CITIC Securities</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06837\">Haitong Securities</a>It is believed that the U.S. fiscal and monetary policy will change from loose to neutral and wide. However, Europe's fiscal and monetary easing continues, and the recovery fund is expected to be launched in the third quarter to bring increments to global liquidity and recovery.Of course, some securities firms are cautious that in the second half of the year, Taper superimposed U.S. TGA accounts will change from releasing liquidity to withdrawing liquidity, and at the same time, the U.S. tax increase policy will be passed, which may have a more obvious impact on liquidity.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06806\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>It means that the overseas monetary and fiscal stimulus that has been obviously excessive or even produced a \"distortion effect\" in the early stage still needs to be withdrawn with difficulty, and the carnival of asset bubbles may be coming to an end.04. About Chinese economyThe views on China's economic brokers are relatively consistent. On the whole, the inertia of the Chinese economic decline and rebound after the COVID-19 pandemic is coming to an end, and the economic growth rate may gradually return to a new platform. From a structural point of view, the continued improvement of consumption and the continued recovery of manufacturing investment may become important incremental highlights, while there is not much difference in the decline in the growth rate of exports and real estate investment.At the same time, in terms of inflation, the PPI peaked in May, and the overall center fell back in the second half of the year. The CPI rose slightly in the second half of the year, but the consistency of overall moderation was relatively strong.05. About China's economic policy and liquidityDue to the obvious characteristics of \"loose money and tight credit\" in the first half of the year, especially in the second quarter, there are some differences in the expectations of securities firms on economic policies and liquidity in the second half of the year. Overall, tight credit is the main tone of the whole year. However, the fastest decline in social financing growth has passed.The difference in monetary policy mainly lies in the monetary caliber, which is \"easy to loosen but difficult to tighten\" and \"easy to tighten but difficult to loosen\". From the reason point of view, \"easy to loosen but difficult to tighten\" is mainly due to the decline of economic growth and money demand, the stock debt to solve structural transformation, and the reduction of macro leverage pressure. The reasons for \"easy to tighten but difficult to loosen\" include the unchanged trend of marginal tightening, continuing to cherish the time window to promote supervision and reform, the post-issuance of local government debt and the impact of overseas liquidity.Among them, Industrial Securities also said that the second half of the year may be a valuable time window to solve the \"problems left over from history\" of structural transformation, and it is necessary to pay attention to the risk of rising credit risk. And GF Securities said: Fiscal efforts in the second half of the year will bring about liquidity convergence in a narrow sense. In addition, as a window period, structural reforms will be accelerated in the second half of the year. Haitong Securities said: To stabilize the macro leverage ratio throughout the year, it means that the more you put in the front, the less you may have to put in the back. In the first two months, the credit is \"not urgent\", but it may have to \"turn\" in the back.With the acceleration of local government bond issuance, there are also differences in expected acceleration of fiscal expenditure and fiscal tightening.06. Regarding the allocation of major assets in the second half of the yearUS dollar US Treasury yields: Slightly divergent optimism!The proportion of optimistic about the strengthening of the US dollar US Treasury yields is relatively high, mainly due to the fermentation period and acceleration period of the Federal Reserve's Taper reaction. The difference lies in the narrowing of the recovery gap between Europe and the United States and the narrowing of the interest rate spread between Europe and the United States, which frustrates the carry trade, and the pressure of RMB depreciation is limited.U.S. stocks: fluctuating upward!There is not much difference on U.S. stocks, mainly because profits will become the main factor supporting U.S. stocks. However, attention should be paid to the sensitive timing of Taper and the short-term impact of Biden's tax increase boots.Gold: The rally is over!Gold is affected by interest rates and inflation, both of which are trend-oriented, and both will face suppression in the second half of the year. Unless there is risk aversion driving it.Commodities: The upside is coming to an end!The main reason is that monetary policy has returned to neutrality and the gap between supply and demand has eased. Around the fourth quarter, it may rise again as a whole, but the upward slope will not be as good as before. In terms of varieties, crude oil energy and chemicals are generally optimistic, and there is still room for upside. The gap between supply and demand may converge, but there are differences in the upside; Under the pressure of industrial and currency withdrawal, non-ferrous metals entered the middle and late stages of price increase; Black fluctuates due to the gap between supply and demand, and there will still be upward pressure in the future.A shares: structural opportunities!Under the expectation that the economic cycle will slow down and the financial cycle will be stable, the stock market will fluctuate with a high probability. The valuation drive will give way to the earnings growth drive. Each securities firm has its own views on structural opportunities, including gradually shifting its focus to some long-term growth tracks; Pay attention to the opportunities brought to the manufacturing industry by the slowdown in upstream prices (profit margins) and the advancement of the \"14th Five-Year Plan\" (policy dividends); Pay attention to short-term high prosperity, medium-term core assets, and long-term high-quality growth tracks; And pay attention to the recovery from the epidemic-income sector to the epidemic-damaged sector. Mainly focus on the disturbance of US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index to the domestic market.Bonds: Strategy (allocation) is promising!The disagreement on bond assets is largely driven by disagreements on liquidity and future economic performance. Overall, the economy has entered a stage of steady decline. At the same time, inflation expectations have declined, which is good for the performance of bond assets. At the same time, the supply side is also declining. The issuance of local bonds and the disposal of credit risks may bring disturbances.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Combing the reports of eight major securities firms: How to invest in the second half of the year?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCombing the reports of eight major securities firms: How to invest in the second half of the year?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n华尔街见闻 \n2021-06-26 10:57\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAs June draws to a close, many brokers have released macro and asset allocation reports for the second half of the year. Judging from the macroeconomic forecasts of the eight major securities firms in the second half of the year, the overall direction is relatively consistent, but there are still some obvious differences in the structure, so the suggestions on asset allocation are also different.01. About the global economyAs developed countries (especially the United States) began to lead the global recovery this year, the recovery and liquidity of overseas economies have brought more important marginal variables to the domestic economy and asset allocation. Most brokerage research agrees to remain cautiously optimistic about global epidemic control in the second half of the year. The global recovery has entered a stage of resonance recovery. The imbalance will be alleviated.Among them, Xingye,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>It said that the main line of recovery will shift to service consumption: \"The growth rate of U.S. commodity consumption will peak and fall due to the decline of fiscal stimulus and the partial overdraft of demand, while the superimposed gap of service consumption due to the liberalization of epidemic constraints is large, and the certainty of high-slope recovery is strong. It may bring two effects: First, the pulling effect of the U.S. economic recovery on China's exports may decline; The second is to aggravate the mismatch between labor supply and demand in the United States and push up the risk of negative feedback between \"wage inflation and inflation\". \" \"The gap between supply and demand in the United States is expected to converge, and service consumption will relay commodity consumption as the main support.\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000776\">GF Securities</a>It is believed that Europe and the United States will enter an overheating period marked by comprehensive capital: \"The constraints of the epidemic on the U.S. and European economies may be lifted at the beginning of Q3 and Q4 successively. In the second half of the year, the United States and Europe may successively enter an economic overheating period marked by comprehensive capital expenditure. The demand of To B end (production end) has begun to increase significantly, which will make the highlights of global trade shift to the middle and upper reaches in the second half of the year.\"Wherein,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>Relatively cautious, they believe that the road to easing the global epidemic is not smooth. \"Variant viruses in India and South America are complicating the global prevention and control situation again, and the road to recovery of global service consumption in the second half of the year is expected to remain bumpy; after the withdrawal of excessive subsidies, the recovery of manufacturing employment still has a long way to go. The curse of potential output will move downward permanently continues.\"02. About global inflationMost brokers have relatively consistent views on inflation, agreeing that prices have risen rapidly due to the impact of base, epidemic situation, logistics and supply and demand dislocation. In the future, with the gradual recovery of the production side and the possible weakening of support from the demand side after the decline of financial subsidies, the gap between supply and demand is expected to gradually converge after Q3. At the same time, the cardinal effect weakens. At the end of the year, the overall inflation in the United States fell year-on-among<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>Said: The mismatch between labor supply and demand in the United States has pushed up the risk of negative feedback of \"wage inflation\"-\"inflation\" in the United States. U.S. inflation may exceed market expectations.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01776\">GF Securities</a>It is believed that the current global \"high inflation\" may be a structural problem. The only major economies whose CPI was significantly higher than the 2011-2019 average year-on-year were India and the United States. Global inflation in the second half of the year may have four characteristics: after the base switch, the PPI center of most economies around the world is expected to fall year-on-year; The upward slope of transportation costs such as shipping is constrained, and imported inflationary pressures in some countries are expected to ease; The U.S. CPI center moved down year-on-year but not low, and commodity inflationary pressure declined but service inflation increased; The CPI center of exporting countries may show varying degrees of upward movement year-on-year.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600837\">Haitong Securities</a>Mentioned: The easing of the suppression of service consumption will increase the inflationary pressure on the service industry, which accounts for more than 60% of U.S. inflation.03. About economic policy and mobilityIn terms of U.S. monetary policy, there has almost been a consensus on discussions in the third quarter and the implementation of QETaper at the end of the year or early next year. The obvious differences lie in the degree of normalization of monetary policy and its impact on liquidity.Industrial Securities said: In the medium and long term, the debt pressure of the U.S. government has hit a record high after the epidemic, and Biden's 2022 fiscal budget has further aggravated the debt pressure of the United States. The dependence of U.S. debt on the Federal Reserve has risen sharply, which may mean that the Federal Reserve is \"overwhelmed\".Guangfa,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601066\">China Securities Investment</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06030\">CITIC Securities</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06837\">Haitong Securities</a>It is believed that the U.S. fiscal and monetary policy will change from loose to neutral and wide. However, Europe's fiscal and monetary easing continues, and the recovery fund is expected to be launched in the third quarter to bring increments to global liquidity and recovery.Of course, some securities firms are cautious that in the second half of the year, Taper superimposed U.S. TGA accounts will change from releasing liquidity to withdrawing liquidity, and at the same time, the U.S. tax increase policy will be passed, which may have a more obvious impact on liquidity.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06806\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>It means that the overseas monetary and fiscal stimulus that has been obviously excessive or even produced a \"distortion effect\" in the early stage still needs to be withdrawn with difficulty, and the carnival of asset bubbles may be coming to an end.04. About Chinese economyThe views on China's economic brokers are relatively consistent. On the whole, the inertia of the Chinese economic decline and rebound after the COVID-19 pandemic is coming to an end, and the economic growth rate may gradually return to a new platform. From a structural point of view, the continued improvement of consumption and the continued recovery of manufacturing investment may become important incremental highlights, while there is not much difference in the decline in the growth rate of exports and real estate investment.At the same time, in terms of inflation, the PPI peaked in May, and the overall center fell back in the second half of the year. The CPI rose slightly in the second half of the year, but the consistency of overall moderation was relatively strong.05. About China's economic policy and liquidityDue to the obvious characteristics of \"loose money and tight credit\" in the first half of the year, especially in the second quarter, there are some differences in the expectations of securities firms on economic policies and liquidity in the second half of the year. Overall, tight credit is the main tone of the whole year. However, the fastest decline in social financing growth has passed.The difference in monetary policy mainly lies in the monetary caliber, which is \"easy to loosen but difficult to tighten\" and \"easy to tighten but difficult to loosen\". From the reason point of view, \"easy to loosen but difficult to tighten\" is mainly due to the decline of economic growth and money demand, the stock debt to solve structural transformation, and the reduction of macro leverage pressure. The reasons for \"easy to tighten but difficult to loosen\" include the unchanged trend of marginal tightening, continuing to cherish the time window to promote supervision and reform, the post-issuance of local government debt and the impact of overseas liquidity.Among them, Industrial Securities also said that the second half of the year may be a valuable time window to solve the \"problems left over from history\" of structural transformation, and it is necessary to pay attention to the risk of rising credit risk. And GF Securities said: Fiscal efforts in the second half of the year will bring about liquidity convergence in a narrow sense. In addition, as a window period, structural reforms will be accelerated in the second half of the year. Haitong Securities said: To stabilize the macro leverage ratio throughout the year, it means that the more you put in the front, the less you may have to put in the back. In the first two months, the credit is \"not urgent\", but it may have to \"turn\" in the back.With the acceleration of local government bond issuance, there are also differences in expected acceleration of fiscal expenditure and fiscal tightening.06. Regarding the allocation of major assets in the second half of the yearUS dollar US Treasury yields: Slightly divergent optimism!The proportion of optimistic about the strengthening of the US dollar US Treasury yields is relatively high, mainly due to the fermentation period and acceleration period of the Federal Reserve's Taper reaction. The difference lies in the narrowing of the recovery gap between Europe and the United States and the narrowing of the interest rate spread between Europe and the United States, which frustrates the carry trade, and the pressure of RMB depreciation is limited.U.S. stocks: fluctuating upward!There is not much difference on U.S. stocks, mainly because profits will become the main factor supporting U.S. stocks. However, attention should be paid to the sensitive timing of Taper and the short-term impact of Biden's tax increase boots.Gold: The rally is over!Gold is affected by interest rates and inflation, both of which are trend-oriented, and both will face suppression in the second half of the year. Unless there is risk aversion driving it.Commodities: The upside is coming to an end!The main reason is that monetary policy has returned to neutrality and the gap between supply and demand has eased. Around the fourth quarter, it may rise again as a whole, but the upward slope will not be as good as before. In terms of varieties, crude oil energy and chemicals are generally optimistic, and there is still room for upside. The gap between supply and demand may converge, but there are differences in the upside; Under the pressure of industrial and currency withdrawal, non-ferrous metals entered the middle and late stages of price increase; Black fluctuates due to the gap between supply and demand, and there will still be upward pressure in the future.A shares: structural opportunities!Under the expectation that the economic cycle will slow down and the financial cycle will be stable, the stock market will fluctuate with a high probability. The valuation drive will give way to the earnings growth drive. Each securities firm has its own views on structural opportunities, including gradually shifting its focus to some long-term growth tracks; Pay attention to the opportunities brought to the manufacturing industry by the slowdown in upstream prices (profit margins) and the advancement of the \"14th Five-Year Plan\" (policy dividends); Pay attention to short-term high prosperity, medium-term core assets, and long-term high-quality growth tracks; And pay attention to the recovery from the epidemic-income sector to the epidemic-damaged sector. Mainly focus on the disturbance of US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index to the domestic market.Bonds: Strategy (allocation) is promising!The disagreement on bond assets is largely driven by disagreements on liquidity and future economic performance. Overall, the economy has entered a stage of steady decline. At the same time, inflation expectations have declined, which is good for the performance of bond assets. At the same time, the supply side is also declining. The issuance of local bonds and the disposal of credit risks may bring disturbances.\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/082208e3c37780dd55878056410ffa43","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","000001.SH":"上证指数",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105440789","content_text":"随着6月临近尾声，不少券商发布了下半年宏观和资产配置报告。从八大券商对下半年宏观经济的预测来看，整体方向相对一致，但结构上还是存在一些比较明显的分歧，故而对资产配置的建议也是不尽相同。\n01、关于全球经济\n随着今年发达国家（尤其是美国）开始主导全球的复苏以来，海外经济的复苏和流动性对国内经济的带动和资产配置带来更为重要的边际变量。大部分券商研究认同对下半年全球疫情控制保持谨慎乐观。全球复苏进入共振复苏阶段。不平衡情况将有所缓解。\n其中，兴业、中信证券表示复苏主线将转向服务消费：“美国商品消费由于财政刺激退坡叠加需求部分透支，增速将见顶回落，而服务消费由于疫情约束放开叠加缺口较大，高斜率复苏的确定性较强。可能带来两个影响：一是美国经济复苏对中国出口的拉动作用可能会下降；二是加剧美国劳动力供需错配问题，推升“工资通胀-通胀”相互负反馈的风险。”“美国供需缺口有望收敛，服务消费将接力商品消费成为主要支撑。”\n广发证券则认为欧美将进入全面资本为标志的过热期：“疫情对于美欧经济的约束或先后于Q3初、Q4初解除。下半年美欧或相继进入以全面资本开支为标志的经济过热期。To B端（生产端）的需求开始显著提升，将使得下半年全球贸易亮点将向中上游转移。”\n其中，申万宏源相对比较谨慎，认为全球疫情的缓和之路并不顺利。“印度、南美的变种病毒正在令全球防控形势再度复杂化，下半年全球服务消费恢复之路预计仍然崎岖；过度补贴退出之后，制造业就业的恢复也仍然任重道远。潜在产出永久下移的魔咒仍在持续。”\n02、关于全球通胀\n大部分券商对于通胀的看法相对一致，认同受到基数、疫情、物流和供需错位影响，物价快速上行。未来随着生产端的逐步恢复和需求端在财政补贴退坡后的支撑力度可能减弱，供需缺口有望在Q3后逐步收敛。同时基数效应弱化。年末美国整体通胀同比回落。\n其中兴业证券表示：美国劳动力供需错配，推升了美国“工资通胀”-“通胀”负反馈的风险。美国的通胀可能超市场预期。\n广发证券认为：当前全球“高通胀”可能是个结构性问题。CPI同比显著高于2011-2019年均值的主要经济体只有印度和美国。下半年全球通胀或有四点特征：基数切换后，全球多数经济体PPI同比中枢有望回落；海运等运输成本上行斜率受约束，部分国家输入型通胀压力有望缓和；美国CPI同比中枢下移但不低且商品通胀压力下降但服务通胀有所上升；出口国CPI同比中枢或将呈现不同程度的上移。\n海通证券提到：服务消费的压制缓解使得服务业的通胀压力会增大，服务业在美国通胀中占比在6成以上。\n03、关于经济政策和流动性\n在对于美国的货币政策方面，三季度讨论、年底或明年初开始实施QETaper几乎已经形成共识。而比较明显的分歧是在于货币政策正常化的程度和对流动性的影响。\n兴业证券表示：中长期来看，疫后美国政府债务压力创历史新高，拜登2022年财政预算又进一步加剧美国债务压力。美债对美联储的依赖程度大幅上升，或意味着联储“覆水难收”。\n广发、中信建投、中信证券、海通证券则认为美国财政货币政策将由宽松转为中性偏宽。但欧洲宽财政、宽货币仍在继续，复苏基金有望三季度落地为全球流动性和复苏带来增量。\n当然也有券商对于下半年Taper叠加美国TGA账户由释放流动性变为回笼流动性，同时美国提高税收政策通过，或对流动性产生比较明显的影响表示谨慎。申万宏源就表示：前期已明显过度甚至产生“扭曲效应”的海外货币财政刺激仍需艰难地走向退出，资产泡沫的狂欢或接近曲终人散。\n04、关于中国经济\n对于中国经济券商的看法相对比较一致。从整体来看，新冠疫情后中国经济跌深反弹的惯性接近尾声，经济增速或逐渐向新平台回归。结构上来看，消费持续改善和制造业投资延续复苏或成为重要增量看点，而出口和房地产投资的增速回落也没有太大分歧。\n同时通胀方面PPI高点5月触顶，下半年整体中枢回落，CPI下半年小幅上行但总体温和方面的一致性也比较强。\n05、关于中国的经济政策和流动性\n由于上半年尤其是二季度出现了比较明显的“宽货币、紧信用”的特征，下半年券商对于经济政策和流动性的预期也存在一些分歧。整体来看紧信用是全年主基调。但社融增速回落最快的阶段已过去。\n货币政策分歧则主要在于货币口径，有“易松难紧”和“易紧难松”之别。从原因上来看，“易松难紧”主要出于经济增速和货币需求回落、解决结构转型的存量债务、宏观杠杆压力减小等。而“易紧难松”的原因有边际从紧的趋势未变、继续珍惜时间窗口推进监管和改革、地方政府债务发行后置和海外流动性影响等。\n其中兴业证券还表示：下半年或将是解决结构转型“历史遗留问题”的宝贵时间窗口，需关注信用风险上升的风险。以及广发证券表示：下半年财政发力会带来狭义流动性收敛。此外作为窗口期，下半年结构性改革将会加快。海通证券则表示：全年要稳定宏观杠杆率，意味着前面放得越多，后面可能就要放更少，前两月信用“不急”，后面可能要“转弯”。\n财政随着地方债发行加速支出望所加快和财政收紧等方面也有分歧。\n06、关于下半年的大类资产配置\n美元美债利率：看好略有分歧！\n看好美元美债利率走强的比例偏高，主要是出于美联储Taper反应的发酵期和加速期。分歧在于欧美复苏差距变小、欧美利差收窄，使得套息交易受挫，同时人民币贬值压力有限。\n美股：震荡上行！\n对于美股的分歧不大，主要还是盈利将成为支持美股的主要因素。但应注意Taper敏感时点和拜登加税靴子落地带来的短期冲击。\n黄金：涨势结束！\n黄金受利率和通胀影响，两方面因素均为趋势性影响，而下半年均面临压制。除非有避险情绪推动。\n大宗商品：上行空间近尾声！\n主要是货币政策回归中性，供需缺口缓解。四季度左右或再度整体上扬，但上行斜率将不及此前。分品种来看，原油能化整体看好，仍有上行空间，供需缺口或将收敛，但上行幅度存在分歧；有色受工业和货币退出压力进入涨价中后期；黑色受供需缺口影响震荡，后续仍有上行压力。\nA股：结构性机会！\n经济周期走缓、金融周期平稳的预期下，股票市场大概率震荡。估值驱动将让位于盈利增长驱动。在结构性机会方面各个券商各有看法，包括将关注点逐步转向一些长期成长赛道；关注上游价格放缓（利润空间）及“十四五”规划推进（政策红利）带给制造业的机会；关注短期高景气度、中期核心资产、长期优质成长赛道；以及关注从疫情收益板块到疫情受损板块的复苏等。主要重视美债利率和美元指数对国内市场的扰动。\n债券：战略（配置）性看好！\n对债券资产的分歧主要是出于流动性和未来经济表现的分歧。整体来说经济步入稳步下滑阶段，同时通胀预期下滑，利好债券资产表现，同时供给端也在下降。地方债的发行和信用风险的处置可能带来扰动。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1143,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":5027793,"commentId":"5027793","gmtCreate":1624694195945,"gmtModify":1663230072050,"authorId":3574926801023075,"author":{"id":3574926801023075,"idStr":"3574926801023075","authorId":3574926801023075,"name":"Chia99","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8b0318ff6726f49ce00eee5ca120a26","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":125555470,"objectIdStr":"125555470","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"ok","text":"ok","html":"ok","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"hasMoreComment":true,"orderType":2}