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2021-06-28

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Top Ten Brokerages: The rising market is to be continued, and the growth style layout is at the right time

屋顶分布式光伏开发方案出炉，光伏建筑板块掀起涨停潮！“碳中和”下的绿色建筑产业链迎来新机遇，这些龙头订单量爆发式增长（名单）。预计跨月期间博弈性资金退潮会导致市场结构性波动有所加大，建议紧抓高景气主线，继续增配成长制造板块。企业盈利扩张中、微观资金仍在流入市场，牛市格局未变，当前市场情绪距高点仍有距离。

Top Ten Brokerages: The rising market is to be continued, and the growth style layout is at the right time

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":127853167,"tweetId":"127853167","gmtCreate":1624843997359,"gmtModify":1703845944961,"author":{"id":3586549737202999,"idStr":"3586549737202999","authorId":3586549737202999,"authorIdStr":"3586549737202999","name":"Jasonteo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c65e51a6c7aa32f9d87734f24dea5af2","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Good&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Good&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"Good","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/127853167","repostId":2146007781,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2146007781","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"致力于提供最及时的财经资讯，最专业的解读分析，覆盖宏观经济、金融机构、A股市场、上市公司、投资理财等财经领域。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"券商中国","id":"9","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f"},"pubTimestamp":1624809720,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2146007781?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-28 00:02","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Top Ten Brokerages: The rising market is to be continued, and the growth style layout is at the right time","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2146007781","media":"券商中国","summary":"屋顶分布式光伏开发方案出炉，光伏建筑板块掀起涨停潮！“碳中和”下的绿色建筑产业链迎来新机遇，这些龙头订单量爆发式增长（名单）。预计跨月期间博弈性资金退潮会导致市场结构性波动有所加大，建议紧抓高景气主线，继续增配成长制造板块。企业盈利扩张中、微观资金仍在流入市场，牛市格局未变，当前市场情绪距高点仍有距离。","content":"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87962f8b40fba9eb4be873ddab4a1916\" tg-width=\"586\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06030\">CITIC Securities</a>: Entering the market transformation stage, grasping the main line of high prosperityJuly is the transition stage for the market from a quiet period to a resonant upward period. It is expected that the ebb of gaming funds during the cross-month period will lead to an increase in structural fluctuations in the market. It is recommended to grasp the main line of high prosperity and continue to increase the allocation of growth manufacturing sectors.First of all, in the second quarter, the incremental entry funds of institutions were limited, and the expectation of consistent rise drove a large number of game funds to enter the market. The ebb of game funds may lead to increased structural fluctuations in the market. Secondly, the overall economy still maintains a steady recovery trend. It is expected that economic data will continue to recover slowly in July, but disturbing factors such as slow pace and local credit risk events have also begun to increase. Policies will remain stable to support the continued recovery of the economy. Finally, domestic macro liquidity is limited by overseas influence, monetary policy is expected to remain stable, the relative attractiveness of equity assets is highlighted under the guidance of multiple policies, and capital market liquidity is still abundant. Overall, the market in July will shift from valuation-driven to profit-driven, return to normal from unanimous rising expectations, and switch from structurally overheated theme market to the main line of high prosperity in the mid-term report. In terms of allocation, it is recommended to continue to focus on new energy, independent and controllable technology, national defense security and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Manufacturing four main manufacturing lines with high prosperity and growth, and structural fluctuations in the market will bring new entry opportunities.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600837\">Haitong Securities</a>: The bull market pattern has not changed, and the current market sentiment is still far from the high pointThe microstructure shows that the current market risk appetite is actually high. As long as the prosperity is good, even if the valuation is high, the company's stock price will still rise greatly. During the expansion of corporate profits, micro-funds are still flowing into the market, the bull market pattern has not changed, and the current market sentiment is still far from the high point. The market is heading for a new high in the year, with high-quality leaders represented by the Mao Index as allocations, and intelligent manufacturing attacks with rapid profit growth and policy directions.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601066\">China Securities Investment</a>Securities: Loose liquidity continues, growth leads the marketFrom an economic perspective, the liquidity demand for base money will fall in July 2021, and the central bank will maintain the stability of base money supply. Treasury Bond interest rates are expected to fall by about 10-20bp in July-August. The RMB exchange rate will remain in a stable range of 6.3-6.4. Therefore, in this economic state, the market keeps running smoothly. However, there is a huge differentiation in the structure, and Science and Technology 50 and GEM 50 will continue to lead the market.From the perspective of industry comparison, first, continue to be optimistic about growth industries such as photovoltaics and new energy vehicles. Second, growth sectors such as computers are dominant as scheduled, which is also quite sustainable. Third, under the condition that the market continues to be excellent, and the transaction volume continues to exceed one trillion yuan, there may be opportunities in the brokerage sector.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">Guotai Junan</a>Securities: The pull-up is to be continued, it is completely too late to go long nowDon't be bearish for the sake of being bearish, break away from the confinement of stock thinking, pay attention to marginal improvement, and the pull-up is to be continued. The back is a pull-up, and it is completely too late to go long now. As the trend of inflation and credit contraction is determined, the downward trend of risk assessment continues to drive the market upward. In addition, the downward trend of risk-free interest rate will become a new force, which will drive the market up together with risk assessment. 1) Short-term perspective: Due to the domestic central bank's unexpected net investment, short-term interest rates in the market will marginally decline, and foreign inflation expectations will fall, and long-term interest rates on U.S. bonds will also marginally decline. Domestically, on June 24, the central bank increased the scale of reverse for the first time after three months, increasing net OMO investment by 20 billion more than expected to maintain stability, and short-term interest rates in the inter-bank market mainly declined. In addition, although the deposit interest rate reform is not a \"disguised interest rate cut\", the central bank's statement that \"maintaining reasonable and sufficient liquidity is not empty talk\" also conveys a positive signal. In the future, with the increase of inflation tolerance, the pressure to stabilize growth, and possible credit problems, it will be easier to loosen and harder to tighten as it moves backward. Overseas, although rate hike is expected to move forward after the interest rate meeting, the long-term interest rate of U.S. bonds has fallen instead of rising due to the fall in inflation expectations. 2) Long-term perspective: The real estate tax pilot is expected to increase, and the asset allocation structure of residents will change. From the perspective of major asset allocation, the stock market is expected to usher in more incremental funds.The fire of technological growth can start a prairie fire. Key recommendations for industry allocation: 1) First recommend securities firms/banks; 2) The starting point of technological growth: new energy vehicles/electronics/computers/military industry/medicine; 3) The recovery in the post-epidemic era is accelerating: domestic consumption/emerging consumption/high-end consumption; 4) New opportunities in the next cycle of carbon neutrality: coal/building materials/steel; 5) Midstream manufacturing oversold counterattack under the expected marginal easing of cost constraints: home appliances/automobiles.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>: Focus on growth, taking into account the cycleThe global epidemic is \"first-in, first-out\", and China's economic growth rate is gradually falling back from rapid recovery to normal growth, and the overall policy environment may gradually favor supporting growth; The market's inflation expectations have been temporarily digested. Against this background, market capital concerns have decreased. After the market's focus has gradually shifted from \"post-epidemic recovery\" to \"normalized growth\", the relative prosperity is high, the growth potential is large, and the industrial cycle is still ongoing. The growth style may still be the main line of the market. Looking ahead, after some indexes are close to the previous high, the market may fluctuate in the short term. However, in the general direction, the market may still maintain a positive risk appetite, and the market style may be characterized by \"growth-oriented, taking into account the cycle\".Operational suggestions: Focus on growth, taking into account the cycle. 1) High prosperity, China's competitive or growing industrial chain: electric vehicle industry chain, technology hardware and software, electronic semiconductors, some manufacturing capital goods, etc.; 2) Pan-consumer industry: bottom-up stock selection in the fields of daily necessities, light industrial home furnishing, hotel tourism, home appliances, automobiles and parts, medicine and medical equipment; 3) Gradually reduce cyclical allocation but focus on some cycles with favorable structures or structural growth characteristics: some non-ferrous metals such as lithium, chemicals, and financial leaders who benefit from the general development trend of wealth and asset management.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>: Growth flies, mid-term report relayThe domestic economic stability period, the policy warm wind period, and the liquidity-friendly period are superimposed. Economic recovery is accelerating, monetary policy remains stable, global money market funds are accelerating their return to risky assets, and global equity assets are in a \"honeymoon period.\" The market is moving from the layout of the \"centennial\" market, slowly unfolding, and getting better and better, to the \"summer market\" that is in full swing, scorching sun, and shining brightly. It continues to prompt over-allocation growth, and pays attention to the cost-effective assets whose interim report performance exceeds expectations.Industry configuration: \"Harvest cycle, layout growth\" is interpreted as scheduled, growth is still the main theme, and the mid-term report market can be laid out. 1) AIoT, Internet of Everything, China's domestic operating systems represented by Hongmeng are linked to smart terminal mobile phones, cars, etc., and the opportunities gestated deserve attention. Such as: computer, communication, electronics, etc. 2) Medicine, with both innovation, prosperity, technology and consumption attributes, focusing on medical devices, medical services and other directions. 3) New energy chain. Comparable to the 10-year golden growth cycle of consumer electronics, under the background of carbon neutrality and carbon peak, the three-wheel drive of policy + demand + technological change focuses on: new energy materials, lithium battery equipment, automobiles, intelligent driving and other subdivisions. 4) High-end manufacturing equipment. Mainly focusing on China's manufacturing moving towards high-end and localization, in line with industry needs and prosperous development, we can focus on semiconductor equipment, military industry and other directions. The market concerto of cost-effective assets cannot be ignored. In the next stage, you can pay attention to the catalyst of the mid-term report. With the economic recovery and the PPI maintaining a high level, it is possible to rush for cost-effective assets whose mid-term results exceed expectations, especially low-valuation leaders such as chemicals, machinery, non-ferrous metals, and coal.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000776\">GF Securities</a>: Looking for small-cap growth with better oddsAfter five years of \"dragon-led\" leading stock style, there are problems in the microstructure of A-shares, and the crowded trading of leading stocks restricts its excess return space. 2021 is a big year for profits. The deterministic valuation premium of leading stocks has fallen. The market has gone from chasing leaders with stable ROE to favoring small and medium-sized caps with strong immediate performance flexibility. Rising inflation expectations in 2021 drive small-cap value stocks better; The peak of inflation expectations since mid-May has driven the global stock market style to turn to growth. At the same time, the profit expectations of individual stocks in representative sectors of the market value have been lowered, resulting in a slight double kill in performance valuations.Since small-cap growth took over, some small and medium-sized market capitalization growth stocks have accumulated significant gains, but using the winning rate/odds framework, small-cap growth is still the best choice. This year's stock trading is still a winning rate investment (an industry with increased profit margins) taking into account odds (reflected in the sinking market value). In terms of allocation, we will pay attention to the direction of interest rate profit with room for improvement from the perspective of winning rate (good long-term growth or supply and demand gap), taking into account the odds perspective, choose a subdivided track with appropriate valuation and still room for market value sinking. Currently mainly focused on component and electronic manufacturing; Medical devices and medical services; Power supply equipment; Glass, chemicals/chemical fiber and other industries.Essence Securities: The index may have limited room to continue to rise, and growth is still the future trendThe current market as a whole continues to be in a volatile stage. In the short term, the market is in a favorable environment, the liquidity of the inter-bank market is expected to be stable, and overseas concerns have also been alleviated. At the same time, the adjustment pressure of strong stocks in the early stage of the market is rising, and the compensatory gains of weak stocks in the early stage have started. There may be limited room for the index to continue to rise in this round. In the medium and long term, the fundamentals of A-shares in this year's mid-term report and the second half of the year are likely to be better than market expectations. Against the background of the Fed's significant dovish and the completion of domestic economic recovery, the upside of domestic bond market yields is limited, and the liquidity environment and risk preference factors as a whole are still favorable support, and the profitability and growth of enterprises will become the core logic of the market in the next stage.In terms of industry allocation, it is recommended to pay attention to companies with reasonable valuations and mid-term reports that exceed expectations, and appropriately grasp the trading opportunities of cyclical stocks. At the same time, we will continue to hold varieties in the core track whose profit growth exceeds expectations, and focus on new main lines in non-core assets that are being gestated, and explore opportunities that have been neglected in the process of economic recovery and transformation from bottom to top. If there is an adjustment in short-term growth stocks, it will be a good time to increase the layout. The key direction includes three clues: 1) The mid-term report exceeds expectations under the recovery: chemicals, coal, banks, etc.; 2) Varieties that can continue to exceed expectations in the core track: semiconductors, photovoltaics, and some pharmaceutical companies; 3) New growth tracks: artificial intelligence, smart cars, new materials, military industry, Xinchuang network security, etc.Guosheng Securities: The market remains volatile and continues to dig<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KIM\">Jinke</a>CreateThe market rose across the board last week, and the core lies in the marginal loosening of liquidity again. Science and technology innovation board continues to lead the market, and its attention continues to increase, and it is expected to gradually become a market consensus. Once again, there will be no systemic risks in the second half of the year, whether at home or overseas, and shocks will still be the main focus. Take advantage of the panic caused by each fluctuation to find buying opportunities.Focus on the future, grasp the present, and configure scientific and technological innovation. Three clues to \"Nuggets\" the Science and Technology Innovation Board: 1) Open up a new direction for A-shares, and benchmark against the scarce subdivided track \"unicorns\". 2) The performance growth rate has always led the \"high growth\" of science and technology innovation; 3) Since its listing, the pullback/retracement has been deep, has fallen below the issue price, and has a valuation and price-performance ratio from the perspective of PEG; Petroleum, petrochemical and chemical, nonferrous metals, photovoltaic and other sectors benefit from overseas demand. Subdivided tracks such as new energy vehicles, semiconductors & consumer electronics, AI, CXO services & medical beauty, and sub-high-end liquor with strong certainty of prosperity and expected high growth.Yuekai Securities: There is a high probability that the index will still maintain a high and volatile trend, and the growth style layout is at the right timeLooking forward to the market outlook, the index will most likely remain high and volatile. With the continued recovery of the global economy and overseas liquidity tightening, the price upward trend caused by the mismatch between supply and demand and the excessively abundant liquidity environment will be alleviated. Commodity prices in the second half of the year It is expected to usher in an inflection point, and the RMB exchange rate will most likely maintain two-way fluctuations, and the probability of unilateral sustained appreciation is small.Pay attention to three main lines in the direction of allocation: First, pay attention to the sectors where the semi-annual performance is expected to improve and the performance exceeds expectations. The second is to pay attention to the growth style configuration with high prosperity. At present, the market's consensus on laying out the main line of growth is continuing to improve. In the context of sustained economic recovery, growth styles with strong policy support, broad development prospects, and strong profitability certainty have stronger premium capabilities. The third is to pay attention to thematic investment opportunities in environmental protection-related industries under policy dividends.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Top Ten Brokerages: The rising market is to be continued, and the growth style layout is at the right time</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTop Ten Brokerages: The rising market is to be continued, and the growth style layout is at the right time\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/9\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n券商中国 \n2021-06-28 00:02\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87962f8b40fba9eb4be873ddab4a1916\" tg-width=\"586\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06030\">CITIC Securities</a>: Entering the market transformation stage, grasping the main line of high prosperityJuly is the transition stage for the market from a quiet period to a resonant upward period. It is expected that the ebb of gaming funds during the cross-month period will lead to an increase in structural fluctuations in the market. It is recommended to grasp the main line of high prosperity and continue to increase the allocation of growth manufacturing sectors.First of all, in the second quarter, the incremental entry funds of institutions were limited, and the expectation of consistent rise drove a large number of game funds to enter the market. The ebb of game funds may lead to increased structural fluctuations in the market. Secondly, the overall economy still maintains a steady recovery trend. It is expected that economic data will continue to recover slowly in July, but disturbing factors such as slow pace and local credit risk events have also begun to increase. Policies will remain stable to support the continued recovery of the economy. Finally, domestic macro liquidity is limited by overseas influence, monetary policy is expected to remain stable, the relative attractiveness of equity assets is highlighted under the guidance of multiple policies, and capital market liquidity is still abundant. Overall, the market in July will shift from valuation-driven to profit-driven, return to normal from unanimous rising expectations, and switch from structurally overheated theme market to the main line of high prosperity in the mid-term report. In terms of allocation, it is recommended to continue to focus on new energy, independent and controllable technology, national defense security and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Manufacturing four main manufacturing lines with high prosperity and growth, and structural fluctuations in the market will bring new entry opportunities.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600837\">Haitong Securities</a>: The bull market pattern has not changed, and the current market sentiment is still far from the high pointThe microstructure shows that the current market risk appetite is actually high. As long as the prosperity is good, even if the valuation is high, the company's stock price will still rise greatly. During the expansion of corporate profits, micro-funds are still flowing into the market, the bull market pattern has not changed, and the current market sentiment is still far from the high point. The market is heading for a new high in the year, with high-quality leaders represented by the Mao Index as allocations, and intelligent manufacturing attacks with rapid profit growth and policy directions.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601066\">China Securities Investment</a>Securities: Loose liquidity continues, growth leads the marketFrom an economic perspective, the liquidity demand for base money will fall in July 2021, and the central bank will maintain the stability of base money supply. Treasury Bond interest rates are expected to fall by about 10-20bp in July-August. The RMB exchange rate will remain in a stable range of 6.3-6.4. Therefore, in this economic state, the market keeps running smoothly. However, there is a huge differentiation in the structure, and Science and Technology 50 and GEM 50 will continue to lead the market.From the perspective of industry comparison, first, continue to be optimistic about growth industries such as photovoltaics and new energy vehicles. Second, growth sectors such as computers are dominant as scheduled, which is also quite sustainable. Third, under the condition that the market continues to be excellent, and the transaction volume continues to exceed one trillion yuan, there may be opportunities in the brokerage sector.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">Guotai Junan</a>Securities: The pull-up is to be continued, it is completely too late to go long nowDon't be bearish for the sake of being bearish, break away from the confinement of stock thinking, pay attention to marginal improvement, and the pull-up is to be continued. The back is a pull-up, and it is completely too late to go long now. As the trend of inflation and credit contraction is determined, the downward trend of risk assessment continues to drive the market upward. In addition, the downward trend of risk-free interest rate will become a new force, which will drive the market up together with risk assessment. 1) Short-term perspective: Due to the domestic central bank's unexpected net investment, short-term interest rates in the market will marginally decline, and foreign inflation expectations will fall, and long-term interest rates on U.S. bonds will also marginally decline. Domestically, on June 24, the central bank increased the scale of reverse for the first time after three months, increasing net OMO investment by 20 billion more than expected to maintain stability, and short-term interest rates in the inter-bank market mainly declined. In addition, although the deposit interest rate reform is not a \"disguised interest rate cut\", the central bank's statement that \"maintaining reasonable and sufficient liquidity is not empty talk\" also conveys a positive signal. In the future, with the increase of inflation tolerance, the pressure to stabilize growth, and possible credit problems, it will be easier to loosen and harder to tighten as it moves backward. Overseas, although rate hike is expected to move forward after the interest rate meeting, the long-term interest rate of U.S. bonds has fallen instead of rising due to the fall in inflation expectations. 2) Long-term perspective: The real estate tax pilot is expected to increase, and the asset allocation structure of residents will change. From the perspective of major asset allocation, the stock market is expected to usher in more incremental funds.The fire of technological growth can start a prairie fire. Key recommendations for industry allocation: 1) First recommend securities firms/banks; 2) The starting point of technological growth: new energy vehicles/electronics/computers/military industry/medicine; 3) The recovery in the post-epidemic era is accelerating: domestic consumption/emerging consumption/high-end consumption; 4) New opportunities in the next cycle of carbon neutrality: coal/building materials/steel; 5) Midstream manufacturing oversold counterattack under the expected marginal easing of cost constraints: home appliances/automobiles.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>: Focus on growth, taking into account the cycleThe global epidemic is \"first-in, first-out\", and China's economic growth rate is gradually falling back from rapid recovery to normal growth, and the overall policy environment may gradually favor supporting growth; The market's inflation expectations have been temporarily digested. Against this background, market capital concerns have decreased. After the market's focus has gradually shifted from \"post-epidemic recovery\" to \"normalized growth\", the relative prosperity is high, the growth potential is large, and the industrial cycle is still ongoing. The growth style may still be the main line of the market. Looking ahead, after some indexes are close to the previous high, the market may fluctuate in the short term. However, in the general direction, the market may still maintain a positive risk appetite, and the market style may be characterized by \"growth-oriented, taking into account the cycle\".Operational suggestions: Focus on growth, taking into account the cycle. 1) High prosperity, China's competitive or growing industrial chain: electric vehicle industry chain, technology hardware and software, electronic semiconductors, some manufacturing capital goods, etc.; 2) Pan-consumer industry: bottom-up stock selection in the fields of daily necessities, light industrial home furnishing, hotel tourism, home appliances, automobiles and parts, medicine and medical equipment; 3) Gradually reduce cyclical allocation but focus on some cycles with favorable structures or structural growth characteristics: some non-ferrous metals such as lithium, chemicals, and financial leaders who benefit from the general development trend of wealth and asset management.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>: Growth flies, mid-term report relayThe domestic economic stability period, the policy warm wind period, and the liquidity-friendly period are superimposed. Economic recovery is accelerating, monetary policy remains stable, global money market funds are accelerating their return to risky assets, and global equity assets are in a \"honeymoon period.\" The market is moving from the layout of the \"centennial\" market, slowly unfolding, and getting better and better, to the \"summer market\" that is in full swing, scorching sun, and shining brightly. It continues to prompt over-allocation growth, and pays attention to the cost-effective assets whose interim report performance exceeds expectations.Industry configuration: \"Harvest cycle, layout growth\" is interpreted as scheduled, growth is still the main theme, and the mid-term report market can be laid out. 1) AIoT, Internet of Everything, China's domestic operating systems represented by Hongmeng are linked to smart terminal mobile phones, cars, etc., and the opportunities gestated deserve attention. Such as: computer, communication, electronics, etc. 2) Medicine, with both innovation, prosperity, technology and consumption attributes, focusing on medical devices, medical services and other directions. 3) New energy chain. Comparable to the 10-year golden growth cycle of consumer electronics, under the background of carbon neutrality and carbon peak, the three-wheel drive of policy + demand + technological change focuses on: new energy materials, lithium battery equipment, automobiles, intelligent driving and other subdivisions. 4) High-end manufacturing equipment. Mainly focusing on China's manufacturing moving towards high-end and localization, in line with industry needs and prosperous development, we can focus on semiconductor equipment, military industry and other directions. The market concerto of cost-effective assets cannot be ignored. In the next stage, you can pay attention to the catalyst of the mid-term report. With the economic recovery and the PPI maintaining a high level, it is possible to rush for cost-effective assets whose mid-term results exceed expectations, especially low-valuation leaders such as chemicals, machinery, non-ferrous metals, and coal.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000776\">GF Securities</a>: Looking for small-cap growth with better oddsAfter five years of \"dragon-led\" leading stock style, there are problems in the microstructure of A-shares, and the crowded trading of leading stocks restricts its excess return space. 2021 is a big year for profits. The deterministic valuation premium of leading stocks has fallen. The market has gone from chasing leaders with stable ROE to favoring small and medium-sized caps with strong immediate performance flexibility. Rising inflation expectations in 2021 drive small-cap value stocks better; The peak of inflation expectations since mid-May has driven the global stock market style to turn to growth. At the same time, the profit expectations of individual stocks in representative sectors of the market value have been lowered, resulting in a slight double kill in performance valuations.Since small-cap growth took over, some small and medium-sized market capitalization growth stocks have accumulated significant gains, but using the winning rate/odds framework, small-cap growth is still the best choice. This year's stock trading is still a winning rate investment (an industry with increased profit margins) taking into account odds (reflected in the sinking market value). In terms of allocation, we will pay attention to the direction of interest rate profit with room for improvement from the perspective of winning rate (good long-term growth or supply and demand gap), taking into account the odds perspective, choose a subdivided track with appropriate valuation and still room for market value sinking. Currently mainly focused on component and electronic manufacturing; Medical devices and medical services; Power supply equipment; Glass, chemicals/chemical fiber and other industries.Essence Securities: The index may have limited room to continue to rise, and growth is still the future trendThe current market as a whole continues to be in a volatile stage. In the short term, the market is in a favorable environment, the liquidity of the inter-bank market is expected to be stable, and overseas concerns have also been alleviated. At the same time, the adjustment pressure of strong stocks in the early stage of the market is rising, and the compensatory gains of weak stocks in the early stage have started. There may be limited room for the index to continue to rise in this round. In the medium and long term, the fundamentals of A-shares in this year's mid-term report and the second half of the year are likely to be better than market expectations. Against the background of the Fed's significant dovish and the completion of domestic economic recovery, the upside of domestic bond market yields is limited, and the liquidity environment and risk preference factors as a whole are still favorable support, and the profitability and growth of enterprises will become the core logic of the market in the next stage.In terms of industry allocation, it is recommended to pay attention to companies with reasonable valuations and mid-term reports that exceed expectations, and appropriately grasp the trading opportunities of cyclical stocks. At the same time, we will continue to hold varieties in the core track whose profit growth exceeds expectations, and focus on new main lines in non-core assets that are being gestated, and explore opportunities that have been neglected in the process of economic recovery and transformation from bottom to top. If there is an adjustment in short-term growth stocks, it will be a good time to increase the layout. The key direction includes three clues: 1) The mid-term report exceeds expectations under the recovery: chemicals, coal, banks, etc.; 2) Varieties that can continue to exceed expectations in the core track: semiconductors, photovoltaics, and some pharmaceutical companies; 3) New growth tracks: artificial intelligence, smart cars, new materials, military industry, Xinchuang network security, etc.Guosheng Securities: The market remains volatile and continues to dig<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KIM\">Jinke</a>CreateThe market rose across the board last week, and the core lies in the marginal loosening of liquidity again. Science and technology innovation board continues to lead the market, and its attention continues to increase, and it is expected to gradually become a market consensus. Once again, there will be no systemic risks in the second half of the year, whether at home or overseas, and shocks will still be the main focus. Take advantage of the panic caused by each fluctuation to find buying opportunities.Focus on the future, grasp the present, and configure scientific and technological innovation. Three clues to \"Nuggets\" the Science and Technology Innovation Board: 1) Open up a new direction for A-shares, and benchmark against the scarce subdivided track \"unicorns\". 2) The performance growth rate has always led the \"high growth\" of science and technology innovation; 3) Since its listing, the pullback/retracement has been deep, has fallen below the issue price, and has a valuation and price-performance ratio from the perspective of PEG; Petroleum, petrochemical and chemical, nonferrous metals, photovoltaic and other sectors benefit from overseas demand. Subdivided tracks such as new energy vehicles, semiconductors & consumer electronics, AI, CXO services & medical beauty, and sub-high-end liquor with strong certainty of prosperity and expected high growth.Yuekai Securities: There is a high probability that the index will still maintain a high and volatile trend, and the growth style layout is at the right timeLooking forward to the market outlook, the index will most likely remain high and volatile. With the continued recovery of the global economy and overseas liquidity tightening, the price upward trend caused by the mismatch between supply and demand and the excessively abundant liquidity environment will be alleviated. Commodity prices in the second half of the year It is expected to usher in an inflection point, and the RMB exchange rate will most likely maintain two-way fluctuations, and the probability of unilateral sustained appreciation is small.Pay attention to three main lines in the direction of allocation: First, pay attention to the sectors where the semi-annual performance is expected to improve and the performance exceeds expectations. The second is to pay attention to the growth style configuration with high prosperity. At present, the market's consensus on laying out the main line of growth is continuing to improve. In the context of sustained economic recovery, growth styles with strong policy support, broad development prospects, and strong profitability certainty have stronger premium capabilities. The third is to pay attention to thematic investment opportunities in environmental protection-related industries under policy dividends.\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2146007781","content_text":"中信证券：步入行情转换阶段，紧抓高景气主线\n7月是市场从平静期向共振上行期的转换阶段。预计跨月期间博弈性资金退潮会导致市场结构性波动有所加大，建议紧抓高景气主线，继续增配成长制造板块。\n首先，二季度机构增量入场资金有限，一致性上涨预期驱动大量博弈资金入场，博弈性资金退潮可能导致市场结构性波动有所加大。其次，整体经济依旧维持稳步复苏趋势，预计7月经济数据延续缓慢复苏，但节奏迟缓、局部信用风险事件等扰动因素也开始增多，政策依然会保持平稳，支持经济持续修复。最后，国内宏观流动性受海外影响有限，货币政策有望继续保持平稳，权益资产的相对吸引力在多重政策引导下凸显，资本市场流动性依旧充裕。整体而言7月市场将从估值驱动转向盈利驱动，从一致上涨预期回归常态，从结构性过热的主题行情切换至中报高景气主线，配置上建议继续紧抓新能源、科技自主可控、国防安全和智能制造四条高景气成长制造主线，市场结构性波动将带来新的入场机会。\n海通证券：牛市格局未变，当前市场情绪距高点仍有距离\n微观结构显示当前市场风险偏好实际上是高，只要景气度好，即便估值高，公司股价涨幅仍大。企业盈利扩张中、微观资金仍在流入市场，牛市格局未变，当前市场情绪距高点仍有距离。市场奔向年内新高，以茅指数为代表的优质龙头做配置，盈利增长较快、顺应政策方向的智能制造进攻。\n中信建投证券：流动性宽松持续，成长领涨市场\n从经济层面来看，进入2021年7月基础货币的流动性需求降回落，央行将维持基础货币供给稳定，国债利率预计在7-8月回落10-20bp左右的水平。人民币汇率将维持在6.3-6.4的稳定区间中。因此，这种经济状态下， 市场保持平稳运行不变。但是结构上出现巨大的分化，科创 50、创业板50将继续领涨市场。\n从行业比较的层面来看，第一，继续看好光伏、新能源汽车等成长行业。第二，计算机等成长板块如 期占优，这也具有相当的持续性。第三，市场持续优异的条件下，在成交持续过万亿的情况下，券商板块将可能存在机会。\n国泰君安证券：拉升未完待续，现在做多完全来得及\n不要为了看空而看空，跳脱存量思维禁锢，重视边际改善，拉升未完待续。后面是拉升，现在做多完全来得及。随着通胀与信用收缩走向确定，风险评价下行继续驱动行情拉升。此外无风险利率下行将成为新的力量，与风险评价共同驱动行情拉升。1）短期视角：国内央行超预期净投放下市场短端利率边际下行，国外通胀预期回落美债长端利率亦边际下行。国内6月24日央行时隔三月首次加大逆回规模，超预期增加200亿OMO净投放维稳，银行间市场短端利率下行为主。此外尽管存款利率改革并非“变相降息”，但央行“保持流动性合理充裕不是一句空话”的表态亦传达积极信号。未来随通胀容忍度提升、稳增长压力以及可能出现的信用问题，越向后越是易松难紧的状态。海外方面，尽管议息会议后加息预期前移，但美债长端利率受通胀预期回落主导不升反降。2）长期视角：房地产税试点预期提升，居民资产配置结构将发生变化，从大类资产配置角度看股票市场有望迎来更多增量资金。\n科技成长之火，可以燎原。行业配置重点推荐：1）首推券商/银行；2）科技成长起点：新能源车/电子/计算机/军工/医药；3）后疫情时代复苏加速：国货消费/新兴消费/高端消费；4）碳中和下周期新机遇：煤炭/建材/钢铁；5）成本受制预期边际缓和下中游制造超跌反攻：家电/汽车。\n中金公司：成长为主，兼顾周期\n全球疫情“先进先出”，中国的经济增长速率正在从快速复苏逐步回落至常态增长，政策环境可能整体逐步偏向支持增长；市场对于通胀预期暂时消化，在此背景下，市场资金面担忧减少，市场关注点由“疫后复苏”逐步转向“常态化增长”后，相对景气度高、增长潜力大、产业周期仍在持续的成长风格可能仍然是市场的主线。往前看，在部分指数接近前期高点附近后，市场短期可能会有所波动。但大方向上，市场仍可能维持偏积极的风险偏好，市场风格可能呈现“成长为主，兼顾周期”的特征。\n操作建议：成长为主，兼顾周期。1）高景气度、中国已具备竞争力或正在壮大的产业链：电动车产业链、科技硬件与软件、电子半导体、部分制造业资本品等；2）泛消费行业：在日常用品、轻工家居、酒店旅游、家电、汽车及零部件、医药及医疗器械等领域自下而上择股；3）逐步降低周期配置但关注部分结构有利或具备结构性成长特征的周期：部分有色金属如锂等，化工以及受益于财富及资管大发展趋势的金融龙头。\n兴业证券：成长飞舞，中报接力\n国内经济平稳期、政策暖风期、流动性友好期，三期叠加。经济加快复苏、货币政策保持平稳，全球货币市场资金加速回流风险资产，全球权益资产处在“蜜月期”。市场正从“百周年”行情的布局、徐徐展开、渐入佳境，进入到热火朝天、骄阳似火、艳阳高照的“夏日行情”，持续提示超配成长，关注中报业绩超预期的高性价比资产。\n行业配置：“收获周期，布局成长”如期演绎，成长仍是主旋律，中报行情可布局。1）AIoT，万物互联，以鸿蒙为代表的中国国产操作系统与智能终端手机、汽车等相互链接，孕育的机会值得重点关注。如：计算机、通信、电子等。2）医药，创新、景气、科技与消费属性兼具，重点关注医疗器械、医疗服务等方向。3）新能源链条。媲美消费电子10年黄金成长周期，在碳中和和碳达峰背景下，政策+需求+技术变革三轮驱动，重点关注：新能源材料、锂电设备、汽车、智能驾驶等细分领域。4）高端制造设备。主要围绕中国制造走向高端化、国产化，顺应行业需求和景气发展，可重点关注半导体设备、军工等方向。高性价比资产的行情协奏曲，也不容忽视。下阶段可以关注中报预喜的催化剂。经济复苏，PPI保持高位运行，可以淘金中报业绩超预期的高性价比资产，特别是化工、机械、有色、煤炭等低估值龙头等。\n广发证券：寻找赔率更佳的小盘成长\n经过持续五年的“以龙为首”的龙头股风格，A股微观结构出现问题，龙头股交易拥挤制约其超额收益空间。2021年是盈利大年，龙头股的确定性估值溢价回落，市场从追逐稳定ROE的龙头到青睐即期业绩弹性强的中小盘。2021年通胀预期上行驱动小盘价值股更佳；而5月中旬以来通胀预期见顶驱动全球股市风格转向成长。与此同时，大盘价值的代表性板块个股出现了盈利预期下调，造成了业绩估值小幅双杀。\n小盘成长接棒以来，部分中小市值成长股已积累显著涨幅，但沿用胜率/赔率框架，小盘成长仍是最优选择。今年股票交易仍是胜率投资（利润率提升的行业）兼顾赔率（体现为市值下沉），在配置上，将从胜率角度关注利率润具备提升空间的方向（长期成长性佳或供需缺口），兼顾赔率角度选择估值合适、仍有市值下沉空间的细分赛道。当前主要集中在元件、电子制造；医疗器械、医疗服务；电源设备；玻璃、化学制品/化纤等行业。\n安信证券：指数继续上行空间可能有限，成长仍是未来趋势\n当前市场整体继续处于震荡阶段。从短期来看，市场处于有利环境当中，银行间市场流动性预期稳定，海外担忧也得到缓解。与此同时，市场前期强势股调整压力正在上升，前期弱势股补涨已经开启，本轮指数继续上行的空间可能有限。从中长期来看，今年中报和下半年A股基本面大概率好于市场预期，美联储显著鸽派和国内经济复苏完成的背景下，国内债市收益率上行空间有限，流动性环境和风险偏好因素整体依然是有利支持，企业的盈利能力和成长性将成为下一阶段市场的核心逻辑。\n行业配置上，建议关注估值合理中报超预期公司，适度把握周期股交易性机会。同时继续持有核心赛道中盈利增长超预期的品种，以及重点关注非核心资产中的正在孕育中的新主线，自下而上挖掘经济修复和转型过程中被忽视的机会。短期成长股如果出现调整将是加大布局的好时机，重点关注方向包括三条线索：1）复苏下中报超预期行业：化工、煤炭、银行等；2）核心赛道中能够继续持续超预期的品种：半导体、光伏、部分医药公司；3）新成长赛道：人工智能、智能汽车、新材料、军工、信创网安等。\n国盛证券：市场维持震荡，继续掘金科创\n上周市场全面上涨，核心在于流动性再度边际松动。科创板持续领跑市场，关注度持续提升，并有望逐步成为市场共识。再次强调，下半年无论是国内还是海外，都不存在系统性风险，仍将以震荡为主。利用每一次波动带来的恐慌找买入机会。\n着眼未来、把握当下、配置科创。三条线索“掘金”科创板：1）开拓A股新方向，对标稀缺的细分赛道“独角兽”的。2）业绩增速一直领跑科创的“高成长”；3）上市以来回撤较深，已跌破发行价、从PEG等角度具备估值性价比的；受益海外需求拉动的石油石化及化工、有色、光伏等板块。景气的确定性较强、有望高增长的新能源汽车、半导体&消费电子、AI、CXO服务&医美以及次高端白酒等细分赛道。\n粤开证券：指数大概率仍将维持高位震荡走势，成长风格布局正当时\n展望后市，指数大概率仍将维持高位震荡走势，随着全球经济的持续复苏和海外流动性收紧，由供需错配和过于充裕的流动性环境带来的价格上行将有所缓解，下半年大宗商品价格有望迎来拐点，人民币汇率大概率仍将维持双向波动，出现单边持续升值的概率较小。\n在配置方向上关注三条主线：一是关注半年度业绩预期向好，业绩表现超预期板块。二是关注高景气度的成长风格配置。目前市场对于布局成长主线的共识正在持续提升，在经济持续复苏的背景下，政策支持力度大、发展前景广阔、盈利确定性较强的成长风格具备更强的溢价能力。三是关注政策红利下环保相关产业的主题投资机会。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZTmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2395,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}