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洞幽烛远
2021-06-24

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"Inflation trading" can be paused

当分析师和媒体同志们还在讨论“通胀”和“滞胀”的时候，市场已经开始在交易通缩了： 1、近期10年期美债收益率明显下行，而且30年期的下行更多，市场收益率平坦化了，弄得美股的金融股开始下跌，因为平坦化的

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":128080212,"tweetId":"128080212","gmtCreate":1624495318936,"gmtModify":1703838254342,"author":{"id":3568614602734225,"idStr":"3568614602734225","authorId":3568614602734225,"authorIdStr":"3568614602734225","name":"洞幽烛远","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e72968722642d797ced5fcb63f2fec1","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":5,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Thanks.</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Thanks.</body></html>","text":"Thanks.","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/128080212","repostId":2145086880,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2145086880","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624415733,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2145086880?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-23 10:35","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"\"Inflation trading\" can be paused","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2145086880","media":"首席经济学家论坛","summary":"当分析师和媒体同志们还在讨论“通胀”和“滞胀”的时候，市场已经开始在交易通缩了：\n1、近期10年期美债收益率明显下行，而且30年期的下行更多，市场收益率平坦化了，弄得美股的金融股开始下跌，因为平坦化的","content":"While analysts and media comrades are still discussing \"inflation\" and \"stagflation\", the market is already trading deflation:1. Recently, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds has dropped significantly, and the yield of 30-year bonds has dropped even more. The market yield has flattened, causing financial stocks in U.S. stocks to begin to fall, because the flattened yield curve is obviously not conducive to financial stocks;<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f41e5ab0e766c9ad9f0ba20a3b94394e\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">2. Inflation expectations fitted by the difference between the nominal interest rate and the real interest rate of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond also dropped significantly after the interest rate meeting, falling by about 20 BP from a high of nearly 2.5% in June.；<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09b9efa46c7de85be5df95df824a853b\" tg-width=\"593\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">3. The real interest rate is equal to the nominal interest rate minus inflation expectations. When the nominal interest rate falls, gold continues to fall, and the price of gold has always had an inverse relationship with the real interest rate of the US Treasury BondThat is to say, the real interest rate actually rises when the nominal interest rate falls, which can only show that the expectation of deflation is indeed relatively strong;4. Expectations for a unilateral rise in commodities seem to no longer exist, taking copper as an example, copper inventories on the London Metal Exchange increased by 24,925 tons, a surge of 17%. After a circle of research, it is said that it is because the supply and demand of copper itself are not so good. The reason why copper prices are strong depends largely on loose liquidity support. Under the expectation of price increases, the industrial chain buys up but not down, and inventories are all hidden, but now the Fed's rate hike expectations have advanced ahead of schedule, and the State Reserve has also sold inventories directly to downstream companies. When the price increase expectations are gone, the hidden inventories of hoarding goods are directly explicit, and the price increase expectations have been shaken.5. Judging from the recent performance of the U.S. stock market, the market style preferences of U.S. stocks have also undergone significant changes, with the Nasdaq significantly outperforming the Dow, the performance of growth is significantly stronger than cycle and value.So, the question is, what happened to make market expectations change so quickly?To answer this question, let's briefly analyze how inflation came about.1. The origin of inflationThere is an essential difference between this round of quantitative easing in the United States and the 2008 financial crisis.This time, the United States directly distributed the bills released by the Federal Reserve to residents through fiscal stimulus, while the quantitative easing of the 2008 financial crisis gave banknotes to financial institutions to help them deal with bad debts and illiquid assets.Giving banknotes to residents can directly create aggregate demand, while giving banknotes to financial institutions can only create aggregate demand after the entity has financing needs.Since the demand stimulation mode of helicopter money is divorced from the traditional historical experience, the speed of production adjustment is slower than the speed of demand expansion, which leads to supply chain bottlenecks and shortage of commodities at the production end.Looking at the data of the US inventory-to-sales ratio can illustrate some problems. The seasonally adjusted inventory-to-sales ratio of retailers is the lowest, only 1.07, and the inventory of wholesalers is also relatively low, at 1.22. However, the inventory-to-sales ratio of manufacturers is as high as 1.48, which is still at a high level.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48ebb5dc27d1a4d9b56b06e650782960\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">What does that mean?This shows that after the United States issued welfare benefits, the American people's consumer demand for buy buy was too strong, resulting in retailers being bought out of stock. However, because the labor force is still receiving unemployment benefits, they are unwilling to come back to work, and those who come back to work are also Mainly in the service industry, not the manufacturing industry, coupled with expensive raw materials and tight transportation capacity, production has not recovered much.The single-month retail sales data in the United States in May was US $620.2 billion, while the single-month retail sales data in the United States in 2019 was just over US $500 billion. Looking at the industrial production index, it was less than 100 in May, but it was around 102 in 2019.In other words, consumption is far above pre-epidemic, but production has not yet returned to pre-epidemic.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acd06a9419c601db0a7cd0d4b4b66049\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Originally, import suppliers in the United States had more choices. For example, by attacking China's textile industry and pushing up upstream costs, China's industrial chain was forced to move out to places with lower labor costs (India, Southeast Asia). Since consumer demand is good and production is insufficient, how should the gap between supply and demand be met? We can only rely on imports.Unexpectedly, the epidemic in India in April disrupted this plan. The epidemic not only appeared in India, but also quickly spread to Southeast Asian countries, Taiwan and Japan. These places are mostly production bases in the world. As a result, China's industrial chain not only did not move out, but instead further concentrated production resources domestically. FDI has recently It is accelerating the inflow into the country.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/453c45b93dd234e782b6886c74a10046\" tg-width=\"589\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Since the gap in retail inventory in the United States is rigid, and countries and regions with production capacity have also been shut down due to the new round of epidemic, the gap in consumption and inventory in the United States can basically only be balanced by China's imports.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0f6894c423cdb48c2a83c6b2eb33a26\" tg-width=\"588\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">2. Unmovable ordersNow come back and look at the domestic.Since China took the lead in controlling the epidemic, subsidized enterprises through credit during the epidemic, and maintained enterprises and production capacity. Therefore, from last year to now, China has been the backbone of stabilizing global inflation. The global supply system is highly dependent on China's production. Shipping costs have increased by more than 4-5 times compared with before the epidemic, and individual stocks related to shipping have also increased several times.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2d563c458f06a2b983ad41fdf8636d9\" tg-width=\"588\" tg-height=\"295\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">But looking at the current economic data, the new PMI export orders in May were only 48.3%, which was below the boom-and-dry line. Compared with the previous value of 50.4%, there was a more obvious downward trend. The export growth rate in May was 27.9%, which was not as good as the previous value of 32.3%. Now the market has begun to talk more about the peak of external demand.From a logical and factual point of view, companies should not be short of orders, because overseas companies can only rely on China's production capacity at present.We tend to think that the decline in new export orders is not because enterprises have no orders, but because enterprises dare not take orders easily.Why are enterprises afraid to take orders? The main reason is that upstream commodities are sold too fast, and you lose money when you take orders.There are three main reasons for the rapid rise in upstream commodity prices:1. The demand of the United States can be printed by printing money. Most non-ferrous metals are priced in US dollars. The downward trend of the US dollar and the expansion of demand itself are good for upstream commodities.2. Upstream supply cannot be opened, and some of them are unable to resume work due to the lack of vaccines in emerging markets. The spread of the epidemic in India has exacerbated this trend. For example, the semiconductor supply chain is tight, and the supply of scrap copper and some rare minerals has been disturbed; Some are because trade unions are strong; Others feel that demand is not sustainable. Good short-term demand is only printed by the United States and is not sustainable. Now it will be a matter of three years from the expansion of production capacity to the release of output, but if there is no such good demand in the future, You will lose money, so it is better to take advantage of the current price increase to maintain the oligopoly and earn enough cash flow now.3. For domestic commodities with pricing power, due to the \"double carbon\" goal, safe production and other demands, the market is expected to reduce production, resulting in hidden inventories, and the downstream will also expect that supply will be in short supply in the future, so they can only panic stocking up at the moment, which intensifies expectations for upstream price increases.From the data point of view, the PPI in May was as high as 9% year-on-year, while the CPI was only 1.3% year-on-year. Both the PMI raw material price minus the price of finished products and the PPI raw material price minus the PPI processing price hit a record high year-on-year, which shows that the downstream production and manufacturing links are constantly enduring upstream inflation.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf605a70afe88045b7636a1a9c9e0b19\" tg-width=\"589\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">But everything must have a degree. When the contradiction of the upstream rise accumulates to a certain extent, the company will \"increase income but not increase profits\" and \"thankless\" for a long time, so naturally it will not dare to take orders, because the more orders it takes, the more money it will lose.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e11053c2e74d92908dd4a04aa0cfcda\" tg-width=\"587\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">3. The mysterious interest rate meetingThe most interesting thing about the June interest rate meeting is that Taper, which the market is paying attention to, basically didn't mention much, and the expression was very vague. It only said that the premise of opening Taper is to achieve the goal of \"substantial progress\" in the economy, and the standard of \"substantial progress\" It is determined by the Federal Reserve.However, the most surprising thing about the June interest rate meeting was that rate hike's expectations were advanced. The number of members who believe that the rate hike should rise from 4 to 7 in 2022, and the number of members who should rate hike in 2023 will rise from 7 to 13.On the whole, the interest rate meeting in June is to guide rate hike expectations ahead of schedule, and to \"keep silent\" about Taper, which the market is most concerned about.The point is, what is the intention of the Fed in doing so?After the interest rate meeting, the market followed a combination of a sharp rise in the US dollar and a decline in the 10-year U.S. bond yield. This trend combination is very confusing.Let's first guess why the Fed kept silent about Taper.In the first quarter, because the market formed optimistic expectations that the U.S. economy would recover rapidly after effective vaccination, the market's expectations for inflation were very high at that time, so the 10-year U.S. bond yield rose very quickly in the first quarter. In a few trading days, the yield rose from less than 1% to a high of 1.78% at the end of March.However, the Federal Reserve believes that market expectations have gone too far, constantly emphasizing that inflation is temporary and does not cater to market expectations. In the second quarter, the Fed's balance sheet expansion also continued. Against the background of huge fiscal deposits, all kinds of short-term interest rates have been pressed to around 0.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f54f3462ee6ddf13338f6b301b11d78b\" tg-width=\"586\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">There was a reason why the Fed did this in the second quarter. In the first quarter, although vaccines were being vaccinated rapidly, and the U.S. economy benefited from vaccines, it was indeed recovering rapidly, but both the number of jobs and wage growth were far from reaching pre-epidemic levels.Withdrawing from easing means that the finance will decline, but there is still a high degree of uncertainty about whether the economic environment in the first quarter can absorb the labor force returning due to the withdrawal of welfare.But by the end of the second quarter, it was obvious that the economy had tended to overheat, and the labor market began to be in short supply. Wages are rising at the same time that the number of job vacancies is rising.Recently, the number of job vacancies in the United States has reached 9.29 million, compared with almost 7 million in 2019. The job vacancy rate is as high as 6%, and the average level in 2019 is around 4%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fb48b1ad455cf8f930a98f6abb2752\" tg-width=\"591\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">By this time, due to the overheating of the job market, the basis for the withdrawal of unemployment benefits has initially been met. What hinders the employment recovery is no longer the weak economic recovery, but the relief payments that even exceed the wages that many employers can pay, which leads to the slow recovery of the labor market. So starting in June, some states have begun to cancel the weekly unemployment benefit of $300.We believe that Taper's \"silence\" and the Fed's goal of \"substantial progress\" in the economy most likely refers to a significant increase in employment data after the withdrawal of unemployment benefits, which can verify that the US economy is completely on the right track..This is why this interest rate meeting did not raise the unemployment rate target, and remained at the unemployment level of 4.5% after the continued new jobs were lower than expected, because the Federal Reserve expects that after the withdrawal of unemployment benefits, the labor force will gradually return to the job market..In short, only when there is a significant improvement in employment growth can the target conditions of \"substantial progress\" desired by the Fed be achieved. Only then will the Fed seriously consider whether the size of the quantitative easing should be reduced.Let's review how inflation in the United States is formed.The first is that the money printing machine sends money to residents, which leads consumers to \"buy in buy buy\"; The second is that local production has not been repaired, because the employment force has not returned, logistics costs are rising, and the supply of upstream raw materials is scarce (such as the lack of cores for cars and the lack of wood for building houses); The third is that raw material prices, freight and other costs have risen too fast, and China cannot accept new export orders.Against the background of rapid demand expansion and relatively tight supply, we have seen that U.S. inflation has shown the characteristics of \"unlimited rise\". Since the supply simply can't match the expansion speed of demand, the residents can't buy the goods if they want to, and the price can only jump.This is very similar to the U.S. real estate market. Existing home sales data have been declining since the beginning of this year, but this is not that demand has weakened, because the selling price of existing home sales is still accelerating, and at the same time, existing home inventories in the United States are being consumed.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95300d19a8a8ee5d831b8f969ae8b639\" tg-width=\"589\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In order to alleviate inflationary pressure, the logic is actually very simple. Either curb demand, such as paying less welfare, or guide employment to return to various positions and start production. As welfare goes down, demand weakens, and production increases, inflationary pressure naturally goes down.The key now is whether the subsequent employment can increase, which in turn depends on:1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>After immunization, the intensity of the recovery of the U.S. service industry, if the production and supply of oil prices are relatively stable, the rise and fall of oil prices can be used as a high-frequency proxy indicator for the recovery of the service industry;2. Have the small and medium-sized enterprises and supply chains in the United States suffered medium and long-term damage due to the epidemic? If so, the supply chain and production links in the United States cannot absorb much employment, and will not have the effect of repairing production.These macroeconomic variables, at least from now on, are still uncertain. Only after unemployment benefits are withdrawn can the answer gradually become clear whether employment can increase.Therefore, before employment is increased to fill the gap, the Federal Reserve will not be busy mentioning Taper, and it will not withdraw so quickly from providing benefits to residents. According to data from the U.S. Department of Labor, 70% of unemployment benefits will not be withdrawn until the end of the third quarter of this year.If the United States can neither curb demand nor expand production scale in the short term, then there is only one way to alleviate inflation, reducing upstream costs, devaluing the exchange rate of producing countries, and replenishing retail inventories by expanding imports to producing countries.That's why the Federal Reserve dare not mention Taper, because there is still some uncertainty about whether the job market can be repaired, but the Federal Reserve is willing to advance the market's rate hike expectations and pull up the US dollar, because this can not only devalue the exchange rate of producing countries and expand imports, but also suppress the price of upstream bulk goods, give some production profits to domestic and producing countries, and facilitate the reconstruction of retail inventory.4. Market meaningAt this point in the story, we think the logic of the follow-up market is very clear.At least in the short term, there is no need to pay too much attention to whether the Fed will Taper, because this will only happen after the confirmation of the employment gap repair, and then it will become the focus of market pricing.The inflation or stagflation that everyone is hotly speculating about now is essentially the result of a sharp mismatch between supply and demand. When the elasticity of supply is weak to a certain extent, inflation appears in the form of \"unlimited rise\".Therefore, the main contradiction in the global economy is no longer to continue to issue money to increase aggregate demand and keep prices going up, but to repair the fragile supply chain and ease inflation expectations through supply repair.In other words, behind market pricing deflation is not necessarily the weakening of pricing economic demand, but more likely the short-term repair of pricing supply chain bottlenecks.If the United States cannot rebuild its own inventory through the rebalancing of demand and production in the short term, solving the problem of supply chain bottlenecks needs to be solved by expanding imports.As commodity prices rise, the cost of the production supply chain rises too fast to receive orders. From this perspective, suppressing the prices of upstream commodities will become the consensus of China and the United States at this stage.At present, the focus of the wrestling between the two countries will not be \"pepper noodles\", but may be concentrated in the field of scientific and technological innovation that will form a \"technological generation gap\".Therefore, it is best not to expect a unilateral rise in commodity prices at the moment. If commodity prices continue to rise unilaterally, there is a high probability that they will suffer losses.In fact, the support for commodity price increases is not entirely due to how strong the current demand is. The expectation that demand exceeds supply plays a big role.The low inventory of many commodities is not necessarily caused by the current strong demand and insufficient supply, but because there is an expectation that future demand will be far greater than supply, leading to downstream panic hoarding, superimposed traders' inventory hoarding, and rising prices leading to inventory. Implicit, and the hidden inventory further drives price increases.Once the expectation of a unilateral price increase is gone, all the hidden inventory will run out.If the United States needs to alleviate the contradiction between insufficient inventory of consumer goods through imports and RMB exchange rate depreciation, it means that there is no big problem for China's exports to remain high in the third quarter.This round of domestic pressure on real estate and infrastructure, whether it is industrial production or manufacturing investment, is basically driven by exports. As long as exports can remain high, it means that the economic fundamentals in the third quarter are at least not weak.As long as there are fundamentals, the risk appetite of stocks can be guaranteed, and if the upstream price increase can really be controlled, the profit margin of the middle and lower reaches will also come out. You can pay attention to the opportunities in the growth sector, especially the underlying core components and independent and controllable policy premium of materials.Of course, the \"inflation trade\" can be paused for a while.","source":"lsy1583127396478","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Inflation trading\" can be paused</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Inflation trading\" can be paused\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n首席经济学家论坛2021-06-23 10:35\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nWhile analysts and media comrades are still discussing \"inflation\" and \"stagflation\", the market is already trading deflation:1. Recently, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds has dropped significantly, and the yield of 30-year bonds has dropped even more. The market yield has flattened, causing financial stocks in U.S. stocks to begin to fall, because the flattened yield curve is obviously not conducive to financial stocks;<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f41e5ab0e766c9ad9f0ba20a3b94394e\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">2. Inflation expectations fitted by the difference between the nominal interest rate and the real interest rate of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond also dropped significantly after the interest rate meeting, falling by about 20 BP from a high of nearly 2.5% in June.；<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09b9efa46c7de85be5df95df824a853b\" tg-width=\"593\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">3. The real interest rate is equal to the nominal interest rate minus inflation expectations. When the nominal interest rate falls, gold continues to fall, and the price of gold has always had an inverse relationship with the real interest rate of the US Treasury BondThat is to say, the real interest rate actually rises when the nominal interest rate falls, which can only show that the expectation of deflation is indeed relatively strong;4. Expectations for a unilateral rise in commodities seem to no longer exist, taking copper as an example, copper inventories on the London Metal Exchange increased by 24,925 tons, a surge of 17%. After a circle of research, it is said that it is because the supply and demand of copper itself are not so good. The reason why copper prices are strong depends largely on loose liquidity support. Under the expectation of price increases, the industrial chain buys up but not down, and inventories are all hidden, but now the Fed's rate hike expectations have advanced ahead of schedule, and the State Reserve has also sold inventories directly to downstream companies. When the price increase expectations are gone, the hidden inventories of hoarding goods are directly explicit, and the price increase expectations have been shaken.5. Judging from the recent performance of the U.S. stock market, the market style preferences of U.S. stocks have also undergone significant changes, with the Nasdaq significantly outperforming the Dow, the performance of growth is significantly stronger than cycle and value.So, the question is, what happened to make market expectations change so quickly?To answer this question, let's briefly analyze how inflation came about.1. The origin of inflationThere is an essential difference between this round of quantitative easing in the United States and the 2008 financial crisis.This time, the United States directly distributed the bills released by the Federal Reserve to residents through fiscal stimulus, while the quantitative easing of the 2008 financial crisis gave banknotes to financial institutions to help them deal with bad debts and illiquid assets.Giving banknotes to residents can directly create aggregate demand, while giving banknotes to financial institutions can only create aggregate demand after the entity has financing needs.Since the demand stimulation mode of helicopter money is divorced from the traditional historical experience, the speed of production adjustment is slower than the speed of demand expansion, which leads to supply chain bottlenecks and shortage of commodities at the production end.Looking at the data of the US inventory-to-sales ratio can illustrate some problems. The seasonally adjusted inventory-to-sales ratio of retailers is the lowest, only 1.07, and the inventory of wholesalers is also relatively low, at 1.22. However, the inventory-to-sales ratio of manufacturers is as high as 1.48, which is still at a high level.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48ebb5dc27d1a4d9b56b06e650782960\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">What does that mean?This shows that after the United States issued welfare benefits, the American people's consumer demand for buy buy was too strong, resulting in retailers being bought out of stock. However, because the labor force is still receiving unemployment benefits, they are unwilling to come back to work, and those who come back to work are also Mainly in the service industry, not the manufacturing industry, coupled with expensive raw materials and tight transportation capacity, production has not recovered much.The single-month retail sales data in the United States in May was US $620.2 billion, while the single-month retail sales data in the United States in 2019 was just over US $500 billion. Looking at the industrial production index, it was less than 100 in May, but it was around 102 in 2019.In other words, consumption is far above pre-epidemic, but production has not yet returned to pre-epidemic.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acd06a9419c601db0a7cd0d4b4b66049\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Originally, import suppliers in the United States had more choices. For example, by attacking China's textile industry and pushing up upstream costs, China's industrial chain was forced to move out to places with lower labor costs (India, Southeast Asia). Since consumer demand is good and production is insufficient, how should the gap between supply and demand be met? We can only rely on imports.Unexpectedly, the epidemic in India in April disrupted this plan. The epidemic not only appeared in India, but also quickly spread to Southeast Asian countries, Taiwan and Japan. These places are mostly production bases in the world. As a result, China's industrial chain not only did not move out, but instead further concentrated production resources domestically. FDI has recently It is accelerating the inflow into the country.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/453c45b93dd234e782b6886c74a10046\" tg-width=\"589\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Since the gap in retail inventory in the United States is rigid, and countries and regions with production capacity have also been shut down due to the new round of epidemic, the gap in consumption and inventory in the United States can basically only be balanced by China's imports.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0f6894c423cdb48c2a83c6b2eb33a26\" tg-width=\"588\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">2. Unmovable ordersNow come back and look at the domestic.Since China took the lead in controlling the epidemic, subsidized enterprises through credit during the epidemic, and maintained enterprises and production capacity. Therefore, from last year to now, China has been the backbone of stabilizing global inflation. The global supply system is highly dependent on China's production. Shipping costs have increased by more than 4-5 times compared with before the epidemic, and individual stocks related to shipping have also increased several times.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2d563c458f06a2b983ad41fdf8636d9\" tg-width=\"588\" tg-height=\"295\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">But looking at the current economic data, the new PMI export orders in May were only 48.3%, which was below the boom-and-dry line. Compared with the previous value of 50.4%, there was a more obvious downward trend. The export growth rate in May was 27.9%, which was not as good as the previous value of 32.3%. Now the market has begun to talk more about the peak of external demand.From a logical and factual point of view, companies should not be short of orders, because overseas companies can only rely on China's production capacity at present.We tend to think that the decline in new export orders is not because enterprises have no orders, but because enterprises dare not take orders easily.Why are enterprises afraid to take orders? The main reason is that upstream commodities are sold too fast, and you lose money when you take orders.There are three main reasons for the rapid rise in upstream commodity prices:1. The demand of the United States can be printed by printing money. Most non-ferrous metals are priced in US dollars. The downward trend of the US dollar and the expansion of demand itself are good for upstream commodities.2. Upstream supply cannot be opened, and some of them are unable to resume work due to the lack of vaccines in emerging markets. The spread of the epidemic in India has exacerbated this trend. For example, the semiconductor supply chain is tight, and the supply of scrap copper and some rare minerals has been disturbed; Some are because trade unions are strong; Others feel that demand is not sustainable. Good short-term demand is only printed by the United States and is not sustainable. Now it will be a matter of three years from the expansion of production capacity to the release of output, but if there is no such good demand in the future, You will lose money, so it is better to take advantage of the current price increase to maintain the oligopoly and earn enough cash flow now.3. For domestic commodities with pricing power, due to the \"double carbon\" goal, safe production and other demands, the market is expected to reduce production, resulting in hidden inventories, and the downstream will also expect that supply will be in short supply in the future, so they can only panic stocking up at the moment, which intensifies expectations for upstream price increases.From the data point of view, the PPI in May was as high as 9% year-on-year, while the CPI was only 1.3% year-on-year. Both the PMI raw material price minus the price of finished products and the PPI raw material price minus the PPI processing price hit a record high year-on-year, which shows that the downstream production and manufacturing links are constantly enduring upstream inflation.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf605a70afe88045b7636a1a9c9e0b19\" tg-width=\"589\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">But everything must have a degree. When the contradiction of the upstream rise accumulates to a certain extent, the company will \"increase income but not increase profits\" and \"thankless\" for a long time, so naturally it will not dare to take orders, because the more orders it takes, the more money it will lose.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e11053c2e74d92908dd4a04aa0cfcda\" tg-width=\"587\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">3. The mysterious interest rate meetingThe most interesting thing about the June interest rate meeting is that Taper, which the market is paying attention to, basically didn't mention much, and the expression was very vague. It only said that the premise of opening Taper is to achieve the goal of \"substantial progress\" in the economy, and the standard of \"substantial progress\" It is determined by the Federal Reserve.However, the most surprising thing about the June interest rate meeting was that rate hike's expectations were advanced. The number of members who believe that the rate hike should rise from 4 to 7 in 2022, and the number of members who should rate hike in 2023 will rise from 7 to 13.On the whole, the interest rate meeting in June is to guide rate hike expectations ahead of schedule, and to \"keep silent\" about Taper, which the market is most concerned about.The point is, what is the intention of the Fed in doing so?After the interest rate meeting, the market followed a combination of a sharp rise in the US dollar and a decline in the 10-year U.S. bond yield. This trend combination is very confusing.Let's first guess why the Fed kept silent about Taper.In the first quarter, because the market formed optimistic expectations that the U.S. economy would recover rapidly after effective vaccination, the market's expectations for inflation were very high at that time, so the 10-year U.S. bond yield rose very quickly in the first quarter. In a few trading days, the yield rose from less than 1% to a high of 1.78% at the end of March.However, the Federal Reserve believes that market expectations have gone too far, constantly emphasizing that inflation is temporary and does not cater to market expectations. In the second quarter, the Fed's balance sheet expansion also continued. Against the background of huge fiscal deposits, all kinds of short-term interest rates have been pressed to around 0.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f54f3462ee6ddf13338f6b301b11d78b\" tg-width=\"586\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">There was a reason why the Fed did this in the second quarter. In the first quarter, although vaccines were being vaccinated rapidly, and the U.S. economy benefited from vaccines, it was indeed recovering rapidly, but both the number of jobs and wage growth were far from reaching pre-epidemic levels.Withdrawing from easing means that the finance will decline, but there is still a high degree of uncertainty about whether the economic environment in the first quarter can absorb the labor force returning due to the withdrawal of welfare.But by the end of the second quarter, it was obvious that the economy had tended to overheat, and the labor market began to be in short supply. Wages are rising at the same time that the number of job vacancies is rising.Recently, the number of job vacancies in the United States has reached 9.29 million, compared with almost 7 million in 2019. The job vacancy rate is as high as 6%, and the average level in 2019 is around 4%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fb48b1ad455cf8f930a98f6abb2752\" tg-width=\"591\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">By this time, due to the overheating of the job market, the basis for the withdrawal of unemployment benefits has initially been met. What hinders the employment recovery is no longer the weak economic recovery, but the relief payments that even exceed the wages that many employers can pay, which leads to the slow recovery of the labor market. So starting in June, some states have begun to cancel the weekly unemployment benefit of $300.We believe that Taper's \"silence\" and the Fed's goal of \"substantial progress\" in the economy most likely refers to a significant increase in employment data after the withdrawal of unemployment benefits, which can verify that the US economy is completely on the right track..This is why this interest rate meeting did not raise the unemployment rate target, and remained at the unemployment level of 4.5% after the continued new jobs were lower than expected, because the Federal Reserve expects that after the withdrawal of unemployment benefits, the labor force will gradually return to the job market..In short, only when there is a significant improvement in employment growth can the target conditions of \"substantial progress\" desired by the Fed be achieved. Only then will the Fed seriously consider whether the size of the quantitative easing should be reduced.Let's review how inflation in the United States is formed.The first is that the money printing machine sends money to residents, which leads consumers to \"buy in buy buy\"; The second is that local production has not been repaired, because the employment force has not returned, logistics costs are rising, and the supply of upstream raw materials is scarce (such as the lack of cores for cars and the lack of wood for building houses); The third is that raw material prices, freight and other costs have risen too fast, and China cannot accept new export orders.Against the background of rapid demand expansion and relatively tight supply, we have seen that U.S. inflation has shown the characteristics of \"unlimited rise\". Since the supply simply can't match the expansion speed of demand, the residents can't buy the goods if they want to, and the price can only jump.This is very similar to the U.S. real estate market. Existing home sales data have been declining since the beginning of this year, but this is not that demand has weakened, because the selling price of existing home sales is still accelerating, and at the same time, existing home inventories in the United States are being consumed.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95300d19a8a8ee5d831b8f969ae8b639\" tg-width=\"589\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In order to alleviate inflationary pressure, the logic is actually very simple. Either curb demand, such as paying less welfare, or guide employment to return to various positions and start production. As welfare goes down, demand weakens, and production increases, inflationary pressure naturally goes down.The key now is whether the subsequent employment can increase, which in turn depends on:1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>After immunization, the intensity of the recovery of the U.S. service industry, if the production and supply of oil prices are relatively stable, the rise and fall of oil prices can be used as a high-frequency proxy indicator for the recovery of the service industry;2. Have the small and medium-sized enterprises and supply chains in the United States suffered medium and long-term damage due to the epidemic? If so, the supply chain and production links in the United States cannot absorb much employment, and will not have the effect of repairing production.These macroeconomic variables, at least from now on, are still uncertain. Only after unemployment benefits are withdrawn can the answer gradually become clear whether employment can increase.Therefore, before employment is increased to fill the gap, the Federal Reserve will not be busy mentioning Taper, and it will not withdraw so quickly from providing benefits to residents. According to data from the U.S. Department of Labor, 70% of unemployment benefits will not be withdrawn until the end of the third quarter of this year.If the United States can neither curb demand nor expand production scale in the short term, then there is only one way to alleviate inflation, reducing upstream costs, devaluing the exchange rate of producing countries, and replenishing retail inventories by expanding imports to producing countries.That's why the Federal Reserve dare not mention Taper, because there is still some uncertainty about whether the job market can be repaired, but the Federal Reserve is willing to advance the market's rate hike expectations and pull up the US dollar, because this can not only devalue the exchange rate of producing countries and expand imports, but also suppress the price of upstream bulk goods, give some production profits to domestic and producing countries, and facilitate the reconstruction of retail inventory.4. Market meaningAt this point in the story, we think the logic of the follow-up market is very clear.At least in the short term, there is no need to pay too much attention to whether the Fed will Taper, because this will only happen after the confirmation of the employment gap repair, and then it will become the focus of market pricing.The inflation or stagflation that everyone is hotly speculating about now is essentially the result of a sharp mismatch between supply and demand. When the elasticity of supply is weak to a certain extent, inflation appears in the form of \"unlimited rise\".Therefore, the main contradiction in the global economy is no longer to continue to issue money to increase aggregate demand and keep prices going up, but to repair the fragile supply chain and ease inflation expectations through supply repair.In other words, behind market pricing deflation is not necessarily the weakening of pricing economic demand, but more likely the short-term repair of pricing supply chain bottlenecks.If the United States cannot rebuild its own inventory through the rebalancing of demand and production in the short term, solving the problem of supply chain bottlenecks needs to be solved by expanding imports.As commodity prices rise, the cost of the production supply chain rises too fast to receive orders. From this perspective, suppressing the prices of upstream commodities will become the consensus of China and the United States at this stage.At present, the focus of the wrestling between the two countries will not be \"pepper noodles\", but may be concentrated in the field of scientific and technological innovation that will form a \"technological generation gap\".Therefore, it is best not to expect a unilateral rise in commodity prices at the moment. If commodity prices continue to rise unilaterally, there is a high probability that they will suffer losses.In fact, the support for commodity price increases is not entirely due to how strong the current demand is. The expectation that demand exceeds supply plays a big role.The low inventory of many commodities is not necessarily caused by the current strong demand and insufficient supply, but because there is an expectation that future demand will be far greater than supply, leading to downstream panic hoarding, superimposed traders' inventory hoarding, and rising prices leading to inventory. Implicit, and the hidden inventory further drives price increases.Once the expectation of a unilateral price increase is gone, all the hidden inventory will run out.If the United States needs to alleviate the contradiction between insufficient inventory of consumer goods through imports and RMB exchange rate depreciation, it means that there is no big problem for China's exports to remain high in the third quarter.This round of domestic pressure on real estate and infrastructure, whether it is industrial production or manufacturing investment, is basically driven by exports. As long as exports can remain high, it means that the economic fundamentals in the third quarter are at least not weak.As long as there are fundamentals, the risk appetite of stocks can be guaranteed, and if the upstream price increase can really be controlled, the profit margin of the middle and lower reaches will also come out. You can pay attention to the opportunities in the growth sector, especially the underlying core components and independent and controllable policy premium of materials.Of course, the \"inflation trade\" can be paused for a while.\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://m.cls.cn/depth/773257\">首席经济学家论坛</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15e20574f8fb568333181d61bb200086","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","OEX":"标普100","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://m.cls.cn/depth/773257","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2145086880","content_text":"当分析师和媒体同志们还在讨论“通胀”和“滞胀”的时候，市场已经开始在交易通缩了：\n1、近期10年期美债收益率明显下行，而且30年期的下行更多，市场收益率平坦化了，弄得美股的金融股开始下跌，因为平坦化的收益率曲线显然不利于金融股；\n\n2、通过10年期美债的名义利率和实际利率差值拟合的通胀预期在议息会议后也明显下行，从6月近2.5%的高点到现在下降了大概20多个BP；\n\n3、实际利率等于名义利率减去通胀预期，当名义利率下降的时候，黄金仍然在继续下跌，而黄金价格历来与美国国债的实际利率有反向关系，也就是说，实际利率在名义利率下降的时候竟然是上升的，这只能说明通缩预期确实比较强；\n4、大宗商品单边上涨预期似乎已不存在了，以铜为例，伦敦金属交易所的铜库存增加了24925吨，猛增17％。调研了一圈下来，说是因为铜的供需本身没那么好，铜价之所以强势很大程度上依赖的是宽松的流动性支撑，在涨价预期下，产业链买涨不买跌，库存都隐性化了，但现在美联储加息预期提前了，国储也抛售库存直接给下游企业了，当涨价预期没有了之后，囤货的隐性库存直接显性化了，涨价预期已经被动摇了。\n5、从近期美股市场的表现来看，美股的市场风格偏好也发生了明显的变化，纳指明显跑赢道指，成长的表现要显著强于周期和价值。\n那么，问题来了，究竟发生了什么让市场的预期转变得如此迅速？\n为了解答这一问题，先简要分析一下通胀是怎么来的。\n一、通胀的由来\n这一轮美国的量化宽松和2008年金融危机是有本质区别的。\n这一次美国直接通过财政刺激，把美联储放出去的票子发到了居民手里，而2008年金融危机的量化宽松是把钞票给到金融机构那，帮助金融机构处理坏账和非流动性资产。\n把钞票给到居民手里，直接可以创造总需求，而给到金融机构手里，还要等实体有融资需求了，才能创造总需求。\n由于直升机撒钱的需求刺激模式脱离了传统的历史经验，生产调整的速度慢于需求扩张的速度，这就导致生产端有供应链瓶颈和商品的供不应求。\n看美国库销比的数据就可以说明一些问题。经季调的零售商库销比是最低的，只有1.07，批发商库存也比较低，有1.22，然而制造商库销比却高达1.48，还处于高位。\n\n这说明什么呢？\n这说明美国发了福利后，美国人民买买买的消费需求太旺盛了，导致零售商那都被买得没货了，但由于劳动力还在领失业救济，不愿意回来工作，回来工作的也主要在服务业，而不是制造业，再加上原材料贵、运力紧张，所以生产是没有怎么恢复的。\n美国5月单月的零售数据是6202亿美元，而2019年美国单月的零售数据也就5000亿美元出头，再看工业生产指数，5月不到100，但2019年有102左右。\n换句话说，消费已远在疫情前以上，但生产还没有恢复到疫情前。\n\n本来美国的进口供应商有更多的选择，比如通过对中国的纺织业发难和推高上游成本，倒逼中国产业链外迁到人力成本更低的地方（印度、东南亚）。既然消费需求好，生产又不足，那供需缺口应该怎么满足呢？也只能靠进口了。\n没想到的是，4月印度出现的疫情搅乱了这一计划。疫情不仅出现在了印度，还快速扩散到了东南亚国家、台湾地区和日本，这些地方也多为世界的生产基地，结果导致中国产业链不仅没有外迁，反而使生产资源进一步向国内集聚， FDI近期是加速往国内流入的。\n\n由于美国的零售品库存的缺口是刚性的，拥有生产能力的国家和地区也因新一轮疫情停摆，美国消费和库存的缺口基本上只能靠中国的进口来平衡了。\n\n二、接不动的订单\n现在回来看看国内。\n由于中国率先控制了疫情，疫情期间通过信贷补贴了企业，保住了企业和生产能力，所以从去年到现在，中国一直都是稳定全球通胀的中坚力量，全球的供应体系高度依赖于中国的生产，海运费用比疫情前涨了4-5倍都不止，和海运相关的个股涨幅也有好几倍。\n\n但看现在的经济数据，5月PMI新出口订单只有48.3%，到了枯荣线的下面，相比前值50.4%，有较为明显的下行。5月的出口增速为27.9%，也不如前值的32.3%，现在市场关于外需的见顶讨论开始多了起来。\n从逻辑和事实上来讲，企业应该是不会缺订单的，因为当下海外只能依赖中国的产能。\n我们倾向于认为出口新订单的下降不是因为企业没有订单，而是企业不敢轻易接订单了。\n企业为什么不敢接订单呢？主要原因是上游大宗商品上得太快了，接单就亏钱。\n上游大宗商品价格涨得快的原因主要有三个：\n1、美国的需求可以靠印钞票印出来，大多数有色金属是美元定价，美元下行和需求扩张本身就利好上游大宗商品。\n2、上游供给打不开，有的是因为新兴市场缺少疫苗导致无法复工，印度疫情扩散加剧了这一趋势，比如半导体供应链紧张、废铜还有一些稀有矿的供给都受到了扰动；有的是因为工会强势；还有的是觉得需求没有持续性，短期需求好只是美国印出来的，没有可持续性，现在扩产能到产出释放都是未来三年以后的事了，但未来如果没有这么好的需求，就会赔钱，所以不如趁现在价格涨维持寡头垄断，当下赚足现金流就好。\n3、国内有定价权的大宗商品，因“双碳”目标、安全生产等诉求，市场有减产预期，导致库存隐性化，而且下游也会预期未来供应会紧缺，只能当下恐慌性备货，使得上游价格上涨预期加剧。\n从数据来看，5月PPI同比高达9%，而CPI同比仅为1.3%，无论是PMI原材料价格减去产成品价格还是PPI原材料价格同比减去PPI加工价格同比都创下了历史新高，这说明下游生产制造环节在不断忍受着上游的通胀。\n\n但凡事都得有个度，当上游上涨的矛盾积累到了一定程度后，企业长期“增收不增利”、“吃力不讨好”，自然就不敢接订单了，因为订单接得越多，反而会越赔钱。\n\n三、谜一样的议息会议\n6月议息会议最有趣的一点就是市场关注的Taper基本上没怎么提，表述很模糊，只说Taper开启的前提是达到经济取得“实质性进展”的目标，而“实质性进展”的标准是由美联储决定的。\n但6月议息会议最让市场意外的一点是加息预期提前了，认为2022年应当加息的成员从4人上升到了7人，2023年应当加息的成员从7人上升到了13人。\n综合来看，6月议息会议是引导加息预期提前，并且对市场最关注的Taper“闭口不提”。\n关键是，美联储这么做的意图是什么？\n议息会议后，市场走的是美元大幅上涨而10年美债收益率下行的组合，这种走势组合让人很疑惑。\n先来猜测一下，美联储为什么对Taper闭口不提。\n一季度的时候，因为市场形成了疫苗有效接种后美国经济会快速复苏的乐观预期，当时市场对通胀的预期很靠前，所以一季度10年期美债收益率上升的速度非常快，没几个交易日就从不到1%的收益率上行到了3月末1.78%的高点。\n但美联储认为市场预期走得太前了，不断在强调通胀是暂时的，没有去迎合市场预期。二季度美联储的扩表也在继续，在财政存款巨量投放的背景下，各类短端利率都压到了0附近。\n\n二季度美联储这么做也是有原因的。一季度的时候，疫苗虽然在快速接种，美国经济受益于疫苗，确实是在快速修复，但无论是就业数量还是薪资增速，都远没有达到疫情前的水平。\n退出宽松就意味着财政要退坡，但一季度的经济环境是否能吸纳因福利退出而回流的劳动力大军，还是有很高的不确定性的。\n但到了二季度末，很明显可以看到经济已经有了过热的倾向，劳动力市场开始供不应求。工资上涨的同时职位空缺人数也在不断上升。\n近期美国就业职位空缺人数已高达929万人，而2019年差不多就700万人左右，职位空缺率高达6%，而2019年的平均水平也就在4%左右的水平。\n\n到了这个时候，由于就业市场过热，已初步具备失业救济退出的基础。阻碍就业复苏的不再是经济复苏不给力，而是救济金甚至超过了许多雇主可以支付的工资，才导致劳动力市场复苏缓慢。所以从6月开始，已经有部分州开始取消每周300美元的失业救济金。\n我们认为Taper“闭口不提”，美联储要的经济“实质性进展”的目标，大概率指的是失业救济退出以后，就业数据要出现明显的新增，这才能验证美国经济已经彻底走上正轨。\n这也是为什么此次议息会议并没有上调失业率目标，在持续的新增就业低于预期之后还维持在4.5%的失业水平，因为美联储预期失业救济退出之后，劳动力就会逐步回归到就业市场。\n简而言之，只有等到就业新增真的有明显改善后，才能达到美联储要的“实质性进展”的目标条件。也只有等到那个时候，美联储才会认真考虑量化宽松规模是不是要缩减。\n下面我们再来回顾一下美国的通胀是怎么形成的。\n第一个是印钞机给居民发钱导致消费者“买买买”；第二个是本土生产没有修复，因为就业大军没有回归的、物流成本上升和上游原材料供给稀缺（比如汽车缺芯、盖房子缺木材）；第三个是原材料价格、运费等各类成本涨得太快，中国也接不动出口新订单。\n在需求扩张较快和供应相对紧缺的背景下，我们看到美国通胀呈现出了“无量上涨”的特征。由于供给根本匹配不上需求的扩张的速度，居民部门想买都买不到货，价格就只能跳涨了。\n这跟美国房地产市场很像，成屋销售数据从今年年初就开始下降了，但这并不是需求减弱了，因为成屋销售的售价还在加速上行，与此同时，美国成屋库存在被消耗。\n\n要想缓解通胀压力，其实逻辑也很简单，要么抑制需求，比如少发点福利，要么引导就业回归到各个岗位上去，把生产弄起来。福利下去了，需求弱了，而生产变多了，通胀压力自然就下去了。\n现在的关键就是后续就业新增能不能上去，这又取决于：\n1、全民免疫后，美国服务业复苏的强度，如果油价生产供应比较稳定，油价涨跌可以作为服务业修复高频代理指标；\n2、美国的中小企业和供应链是不是因为疫情受到了中长期损害，如果是的话，美国的供应链和生产环节吸纳不了多少就业，也就起不到修复生产的效果。\n这些宏观经济变量，至少从现在来看，还是有不确定性的，要等到失业救济退出后，就业能否放量，答案才能逐渐明晰。\n所以，在就业放量补缺口前，美联储是不会忙着提Taper的，给居民部门发福利也不会那么快退出。从美国劳工部的数据来看，70%的失业救济到了今年三季度末才会陆续退出。\n如果美国短期既做不到抑制需求，也无法扩大生产规模，那缓解通胀就只有一个办法，降上游成本，让生产国的汇率贬值，通过扩大对生产国的进口来补充零售的库存。\n这就是为什么美联储不敢提Taper,因为就业市场能不能修复还有一定的不确定，但美联储愿意把市场的加息预期提前，把美元拉上去，因为这样既可以让生产国的汇率贬值进而扩大进口，也可以打压一下上游大宗的价格，给本国和生产国一些生产的利润，方便重建零售库存。\n四、市场含义\n故事讲到这里，我们认为后续市场的逻辑就非常清晰了。\n至少在短期，没有过于关注美联储是否会Taper的必要，因为这个需要就业缺口修复的确认后才会发生，然后才会成为市场定价的焦点。\n现在大家都热炒的通胀或滞胀，本质上都是供需急剧错配的结果，当供给的弹性弱到一定程度以后，通胀是以“无量上涨”的形式出现的。\n所以，现在全球经济的主要矛盾不再是要继续发钞票去拉高总需求，让物价继续往上走，而是修复脆弱的供应链，通过供给修复来缓和通胀的预期。\n换言之，市场定价通缩的背后不一定是在定价经济需求的走弱，更有可能是在定价供应链瓶颈的短期修复。\n如果美国短期无法通过需求生产的再平衡重建自身的库存，解决供应链瓶颈的问题就需要通过扩大进口来解决。\n由于大宗商品价格上涨使得生产供应链的成本攀升太快，接不动订单，从这个角度来看，打压上游大宗商品的价格在现阶段会成为中美两国的共识。\n两国角力的重点，在当下也不会是“撒胡椒面”式的，而是有可能集中在会形成“技术代差”的科技创新领域。\n所以，当下最好别有大宗商品价格单边上涨的预期，赌大宗商品价格继续单边上涨大概率是会吃亏的。\n其实大宗商品涨价的支撑也不完全是因为当前的需求有多强，求大于供的预期起到了很大的作用。\n很多大宗商品的低库存并一定是因为当下需求旺盛而供应不足导致的，而是因为存在未来需求会远大于供给的预期，导致下游恐慌性囤货，叠加贸易商库存囤积，价格上涨导致库存隐性化，而库存隐性化又进一步驱动了价格上涨。\n一旦价格单边上涨的预期没了，隐藏的库存就都跑出来了。\n如果说美国需要通过进口和人民币汇率贬值来缓解消费品库存不足的矛盾，这意味着中国三季度出口维持高位的问题不大。\n这一轮国内压着房地产和基建，无论是工业生产还是制造业投资，基本上是靠出口驱动的，只要出口还能维持高位，那就意味着三季度经济基本面至少是不弱的。\n只要有基本面搭台，股票的风险偏好就能有保障，而且上游价格涨幅如果真能控制，中下游的盈利空间也就出来了，可以关注成长板块的机会，尤其要关注底层核心零部件和材料自主可控的政策溢价。\n当然，“通胀交易”可以暂歇了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"DDM":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SH":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1843,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}