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2021-05-23

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Low interest rates, high deficits, runaway inflation... America is repeating 1968

和2021年上半年一样，1968年也经历了价值股牛市，接着就迎来了1969年动荡的牛市。

Low interest rates, high deficits, runaway inflation... America is repeating 1968

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America is repeating 1968","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185259244","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"和2021年上半年一样，1968年也经历了价值股牛市，接着就迎来了1969年动荡的牛市。","content":"<p>Author: Ye Zhen</p><p>Just as there are a thousand Hamlets in the eyes of a thousand people, in the eyes of investors, the current American market is also playing out different versions of the story.</p><p>For bulls, the current U.S. stock market is like 2017-2018, with strong growth, yields still within a safe range, an indecisive Federal Reserve, and an imminent melting and rising. For short sellers, the current U.S. stock market is like the eve of the financial crisis, and a series of deleveraging events are about to break out, ending in the \"Minsky moment\".</p><p>However, Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America, believes that the best comparison to the current market should be 1967-1969. In order to appease populist attention, low interest rates and huge budget deficits were allowed, causing inflation to soar to multi-year highs.</p><p>As the chart below shows, both in 1968 and now, the Federal Reserve is the invisible hand that dominates the market trend:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a4a436154b51ec593b3140e9bb4e735\" tg-width=\"819\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to Bank of America, the script at that time was like this:</p><p>1967: Yields soared by 1,001 basis points, stocks rose by 24%, and volatility fell by 37%. Small-cap stocks, technology stocks and growth stocks were the big winners in the market, while government bonds and defensive stocks were the biggest losers; 1968: Yields rose by 32 basis points, stocks rose by 11%, volatility began to rise, up by 5%, banks, value stocks, small-cap stocks, and energy stocks were the big winners, and government bonds, technology, and credit were abandoned by the market; 1969: Yields rose 89 basis points, stocks fell 8%, volatility soared 99%, copper, pharmaceuticals, and technology became market winners, and energy, small-cap stocks, value stocks, and banking stocks were sold off. If everything is repeated in 1968, then the trend of the story at that time may also have some reference significance for today's market. So what happened after 1968?</p><p>Like the first half of 2021, 1968 also experienced a bull market in value stocks, followed by the turbulent bull market of 1969. Then in the 1970s, hyperinflation broke out in the United States, and it was not until Paul Volcker offered a 20% interest rate that prevented the collapse of this empire.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Low interest rates, high deficits, runaway inflation... 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America is repeating 1968\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-22 18:22</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Ye Zhen</p><p>Just as there are a thousand Hamlets in the eyes of a thousand people, in the eyes of investors, the current American market is also playing out different versions of the story.</p><p>For bulls, the current U.S. stock market is like 2017-2018, with strong growth, yields still within a safe range, an indecisive Federal Reserve, and an imminent melting and rising. For short sellers, the current U.S. stock market is like the eve of the financial crisis, and a series of deleveraging events are about to break out, ending in the \"Minsky moment\".</p><p>However, Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America, believes that the best comparison to the current market should be 1967-1969. In order to appease populist attention, low interest rates and huge budget deficits were allowed, causing inflation to soar to multi-year highs.</p><p>As the chart below shows, both in 1968 and now, the Federal Reserve is the invisible hand that dominates the market trend:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a4a436154b51ec593b3140e9bb4e735\" tg-width=\"819\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to Bank of America, the script at that time was like this:</p><p>1967: Yields soared by 1,001 basis points, stocks rose by 24%, and volatility fell by 37%. Small-cap stocks, technology stocks and growth stocks were the big winners in the market, while government bonds and defensive stocks were the biggest losers; 1968: Yields rose by 32 basis points, stocks rose by 11%, volatility began to rise, up by 5%, banks, value stocks, small-cap stocks, and energy stocks were the big winners, and government bonds, technology, and credit were abandoned by the market; 1969: Yields rose 89 basis points, stocks fell 8%, volatility soared 99%, copper, pharmaceuticals, and technology became market winners, and energy, small-cap stocks, value stocks, and banking stocks were sold off. If everything is repeated in 1968, then the trend of the story at that time may also have some reference significance for today's market. So what happened after 1968?</p><p>Like the first half of 2021, 1968 also experienced a bull market in value stocks, followed by the turbulent bull market of 1969. Then in the 1970s, hyperinflation broke out in the United States, and it was not until Paul Volcker offered a 20% interest rate that prevented the collapse of this empire.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a333e60f09b7b3e09b914d4d15b1a58","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185259244","content_text":"作者：叶桢\n正如一千个人眼中有一千个哈姆雷特，在投资者眼里，当下的美国市场也在上演着不同版本的故事。\n对于多头来说，当下美股犹如2017-2018年，强劲的增长、尚处于安全区间内的收益率、犹豫不决的美联储，以及一触即发的融涨。而对于空头来说，当下美股犹如金融危机爆发前夕，即将爆发一系列去杠杆化的事件，并以“明斯基时刻”告终。\n不过美国银行首席投资策略师Michael Hartnett认为，最能比拟当下市场的应该是1967-1969年，为了安抚民粹注意，放任低利率和巨额预算赤字，导致通胀飙升至多年新高。\n正如下图所示，无论是1968年还是当下，美联储都是主导市场走势的那只看不见手：\n\n据美银，当时的剧本是这样的：\n\n 1967年：收益率飙涨1001个基点，股票上涨24%，波动率下降37%，小盘股、科技股和成长型股票是市场大赢家，政府债券和防御性股票是最大输家；1968年：收益率涨32个基点，股票涨11%，波动率开始上升，涨5%，银行、价值股、小盘股、能源股是大赢家，政府债券、科技和信贷被市场抛弃；1969年：收益率上涨89个基点，股票跌8%，波动率飙升99%，铜、医药、科技成为市场赢家，能源、小盘股、价值股和银行股被抛售。\n\n如果一切是1968重演，那么当时的故事走向对于今天的市场或许也有些许借鉴意义。那么1968年之后发生了什么呢？\n和2021年上半年一样，1968年也经历了价值股牛市，接着就迎来了1969年动荡的牛市。随后到来的20世纪70年代，美国爆发恶性通货膨胀，直到保罗·沃尔克祭出了20%的利率才阻止这个帝国的崩溃。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2324,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}