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2021-07-01

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Catching the top, plummeting, confused... Stock market inventory in the first half of 2021

时间如梭，不知不觉，再过几个小时，今年上半年的时光就这么交待了。虽说金钱永不眠，资本多无情，但回顾上半年全球资本市场的疯狂与荒诞，还是不免让人心生感慨。辛辛苦苦大半年，你赚到了吗？本文和你一起总

Catching the top, plummeting, confused... Stock market inventory in the first half of 2021

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":151229443,"tweetId":"151229443","gmtCreate":1625095515782,"gmtModify":1703735889976,"author":{"id":3548268462187923,"idStr":"3548268462187923","authorId":3548268462187923,"authorIdStr":"3548268462187923","name":"适时做T","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/513358897b9c93a557b2aa918aa95006","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":12,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>…</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>…</body></html>","text":"…","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/151229443","repostId":2147275816,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2147275816","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625057765,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2147275816?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-30 20:56","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Catching the top, plummeting, confused... Stock market inventory in the first half of 2021","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2147275816","media":"格隆汇","summary":"时间如梭，不知不觉，再过几个小时，今年上半年的时光就这么交待了。\n虽说金钱永不眠，资本多无情，但回顾上半年全球资本市场的疯狂与荒诞，还是不免让人心生感慨。\n辛辛苦苦大半年，你赚到了吗？\n本文和你一起总","content":"Time flies, and unconsciously, in a few hours, the first half of this year will be confessed.Although money never sleeps and capital is ruthless, looking back at the madness and absurdity of the global capital market in the first half of the year, it still makes people feel emotional.After half a year's hard work, have you made any money?This article will summarize it with you, take a look at the ups and downs of global assets in the first half of the year, look for the context of market capital development, and see if we can get a glimpse of the investment direction in the second half of the year.<h3>1</h3><h3>Review of the first half of the year: the feast and hidden worries of global assets</h3>Although there is still the final battle of the first half of the year in the United States tonight, the asset price fluctuation ranking battle has basically been settled.In fact, in the first half of the year, commodities such as crude oil and non-ferrous metals were the strongest in the performance of major global assets, followed by stock markets of various countries, but this is also the second best record for the overall performance of global stock markets since 1998.Crude oil can be regarded as enjoying the dividend of epidemic recovery and surging after life. If the current oil price is compared with previous years, the price has not actually risen, but the stock market has indeed hit record highs in many countries, especially Markets such as Vietnam, South Korea, and India, which have been deeply hit by the epidemic this year, even experienced the fiercest gains.Behind this, the global crazy water release is indispensable.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7bd29c65f0d6ab28954e4a08d07bfb7\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"1898\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In terms of US stocks,The three major indexes rose by about 13%. There are several trends worth noting:First, the U.S. economic revitalization plan has indeed achieved results under the influence of massive water releases.The unilateral trend of the S&P 500 index and the Dow Jones index is obviously stable and stronger than that of the Nasdaq;Second, under the asset bubble, in fact, many central market capitalization stocks in several major markets performed very strongly.According to wind, the monthly turnover of the three major markets in the United States continued to soar from less than US $5 trillion in 2019 to over US $10 trillion at the beginning of this year, doubling. Although this doesn't mean there is a bubble, it can mean<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>The phenomenon of stock trading is very hot, and investors are highly motivated to participate.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e19bef62656c02b503a729b98984078\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"665\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Third, the valuation of the leading technology leaders has been fired to a historically high position, and many of them have increased by more than 30% year-on-year, which means the taste of bubbles to a certain extent.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52876d447552d21c688014f3ba93405a\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"715\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>For example,In the past 10 years, Apple's valuation has fluctuated around about 20 times on average, but since last year, it has broken through its own ceiling and abruptly raised a whole level. If it is a new incremental business with higher growth from then on, it can enjoy a higher valuation treatment than before, it is not a bad idea. However, judging from its business performance in the past two years and the various anti-monopoly sanctions it has encountered one after another, this assumption is not true.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0e6ec77088c81a003104228c03f3193\" tg-width=\"980\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This can be seen from the financial report data in recent years, and Apple's performance growth even has a downward trend. The main reason for its soaring valuation in the past two years may rely more on the continuous massive release of water from the United States and its own maintenance of stock price through continuous large-scale repurchases.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/338e62968a9609dad3c2742847ee9007\" tg-width=\"984\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In fact, other FAAMGs and other more large companies have continuously repurchased stocks in large amounts in the past two years, which has largely become an important force in maintaining stock prices.However, in the first half of the year, Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange surpassed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to become the two largest IPO financing exchanges in the world, with cumulative listing financing exceeding US $575.7 billion. U.S. stocks are still the hottest center of gravity in the world.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6110967c03aec012e0cf27f7c526d1d5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">A-sharesIf a few idioms are used to describe the overall performance of the first half of the year, it will be \"ups and downs, chicken feathers everywhere, and demons dancing wildly\". The super roller coaster market guidance in the first half of the year is still vivid in my mind. The final performance is: the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index only rose by 3.45% and 4.8%, far less than the 14% and 17.3% of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0104188115a595909e090ae9f6802ef\" tg-width=\"979\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">On the plate, the weight is low, the growth is a demon, and the style characteristics of the theme speculation are fully displayed, driven by crude oil and non-ferrous commodities, the entire traditional construction cycle industry has the strongest growth, followed by the continued surge in the concept of green new energy, and the new three idiots of biomedicine, consumption, and technology. Others are short-term themes that are hot for only three days, and they often end up in chicken feathers.But some people laughed, while others cried. Due to changes in macro policies and market preferences, non-bank finance and home appliances became the bleakest sectors in the first half of the year, among which the leaders in their respective industries collapsed.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc79e7ae4f9f5effaab99e0e7c985164\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"1772\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Looking back at the A-share market in the first half of the year, there are actually several unshakable main lines that have reached a consensus in the chaotic speculation of funds taking turns to sing operas.New energy (automobiles, photovoltaics), biomedicine (innovative drugs, medical beauty), new technology (Hongmeng,) high-end consumption (liquor, duty-free)Etc., accumulated a huge amount of capital, and also put<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">Ningde era</a>Pushed to a trillion-dollar market value,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>Now it has exceeded a record high of 700 billion.In the first half of the year, A-share listing financing was accelerating, with a total of 284 listings, doubling simultaneously, raising funds of 212.7 billion yuan, an increase of more than half.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdc22644e25b836c2c78844af7aad447\" tg-width=\"711\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Overall, the performance of A-shares in the first half of the year is still acceptable. At least the GEM has formed a bull market situation, and market confidence has gradually turned from worry to positive.In terms of Hong Kong stocks, although the Hong Kong stock market continued to have super giant companies listed in Hong Kong in the first half of the year, which attracted massive incremental funds, the overall performance was still worse than that of A shares.The Hang Seng Index is only 6%, and the state-owned enterprise index where domestic stocks are located is even negative.There are actually several main reasons behind the weak trend of Hong Kong stocks.Including the repeated impact of the epidemic, which has led to the cooling of the financial real estate consumer industry, the state's anti-monopoly crackdown on Internet giants as a big weight, and the high valuation premium of listed stocks returning to Hong Kong.This can be reflected in the trend of the Hang Seng New Economy Index, which has high hopes from the capital market. After a roller coaster market,The index is still digesting new logical changes, and these giants appear to have seriously high valuations.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53938955fe681bc0076dc9d5d8e3d702\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Hong Kong stocks as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00170\">China Capital</a>One of the important markets for overseas transit, the IPO market has been extremely hot. Although it was upstaged by US stocks this year, it actually performed very well. In the first half of the year, a total of 46 companies were newly listed, raising HK $213.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 130%.These include Kuaishou, JD.com,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>, Bilibili, Ctrip,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATHM\">Car Home</a>Wait for star companies。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae59433c0ab8709950d884d18a0f906d\" tg-width=\"946\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In terms of commodities, last year's epidemic had an impact on the upstream supply side, coupled with the strong recovery of the downstream demand side this year, and the agricultural output crisis, especially in the context of the global flood release, crude oil energy chemicals, copper, aluminum and iron,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">Agricultural products</a>Waiting for the joint resonance, global commodities are like wild horses, soaring.Up to now, the major factors affecting commodities have not seen significant changes. Under the current serious imbalance between supply and demand, it is easy to rise but difficult to fall.In addition, I have to talk about cryptocurrency. In this round of super roller coaster, before it fell, under the back and forth of Musk, the godfather of currency speculation, the Bitcoin once doubled, and the altcoin speculation was even more completely crazy, with increases of dozens or even hundreds of times. Dogecoin 400 times and shit coins 20,000 times, which continued to arouse the attention of the whole people and the anxiety of currency people, and finally ushered in strict bans from various countries. Overnight, the wealth of countless accounts with leveraged currency speculation was wiped out.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1d822121fdb50a88085adeae51e7a15\" tg-width=\"898\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Cryptocurrency can be said to be an abnormal market overflowed by the flood of global liquidity. In just a few months, it has been praised as the core asset of the future to the current speculation logic that has been smashed to pieces, which is embarrassing!Summarizing the performance of global assets in the first half of the year, it can be seen that the continuous release of global water is a common factor. Even in the context of the epidemic impacting economic operations and most enterprises facing downward pressure on operating performance, the asset price side can still be boosted by strengthening future expectations by massive release of water.. This is also the reason why global assets have risen sharply from the economy since last year.<h3>2</h3><h3>Outlook for the second half of the year: Where are the investment opportunities?</h3>The underlying factors affecting asset price fluctuations are nothing more thanLiquidity, supply and demand, economy, policyAspects.In the first half of the year, except for a few countries in the world, the overall economy took the repair route, which laid the foundation for the strengthening of the capital market.But there are also many problems caused by water release, includingPersistently high inflation, structural overheating of the economy, increasing imbalance between supply and demand, and soaring asset price bubbles.At present, the above problems facing the United States are particularly prominent. Regardless of the price increase of industrial supplies, real estate, consumer goods, etc., they are constantly creating new heights. The CPI in the United States soared to 5% in May, which was the level before the financial crisis broke out that year.The U.S. government debt ratio has reached a 150-year high, and Biden is still increasing the volume by trillions, constantly testing the bottom line of the market.Up to now, tightening liquidity to prevent overheating of the economic structure and stabilize inflation expectations has become a consideration that the United States has to face, and it has gradually become the consensus expectation of the global market.But once it is really tightened, the logic of the global capital market will undergo a fundamental turn, especially at the moment when the asset bubble is obvious, the risk impact is no less than the \"king explosion\".For China, there are still great economic and market worries in the second half of the year.In the past year, China's economy has been able to perform well in the epidemic, mainly due to the growth of exports. When most countries in the world, especially Europe and the United States, the main consumer markets, were deeply plagued by the epidemic and their production and life stagnated, China strongly controlled the epidemic, resumed work and production as soon as possible, and coupled with its existing manufacturing capacity, exported products to the world, and reaped the dividends of this wave of global epidemic.But now, the vaccination rate in Europe and the United States is getting higher and higher, many countries and regions have returned to normal production and life, and the demand for Chinese exports will gradually weaken. There is little chance that they want to continue to eat foreign trade dividends.The other two growth drivers-investment and consumption, can't give much hope. The three major blocks of investment, the manufacturing industry, is difficult to expand, and the infrastructure has been done well. In recent months, the operating rates of some major industrial sectors have shown signs of falling back.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee8a0552d2f6969db76cedffbe1e0fc3\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"632\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The trend of China's PMI data and social financing data in recent months also clearly shows a downward trend.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00d3462d319f9ea67b7652a6679c678d\" tg-width=\"915\" tg-height=\"632\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Although real estate can be used as a short-term stimulus, it will go back to the old road of water stimulation. Moreover, there is actually not much room for operation in domestic housing prices. In addition, the central government has repeatedly reiterated that \"housing is for living, not for speculation\". The road is basically blocked.Can you hope for consumption? That depends on<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Common people</a>How much money is left in the pocket? Looking at the current residents' willingness to spend, it seems that it is not very optimistic. Even though the country has done a lot of things, such as controlling housing prices, killing off-campus education, and liberalizing the third child, from the perspective of consumption growth, it is showing a downward trend.Therefore, the economic fundamentals in the second half of the year are still under pressure, and the stock market, as a barometer of the economy, will naturally be under pressure.Although theoretically, if the state adjusts liquidity, the pressure on the stock market can be alleviated, the problem is that this is unknown, not to mention the possible water collection behavior of the Federal Reserve.Therefore, don't expect too much from the market in the second half of the year, especially for U.S. stocks. No one can tell when rate hike, the gray rhinoceros, will come. The same goes for other commodity assets, not to mention cryptocurrencies.But for A-shares, it is not without opportunities.Funds always need to find a way out. When macro fundamentals are under pressure, they will tend to look for structural opportunities.Although popular main lines such as photovoltaics, carbon neutrality, new energy vehicles (smart cars), semiconductors, biomedicine, big data, 5G communication applications, and new consumption have been generally hyped this year,But in the long run, these are still sectors with certainty of growth, and they are also the favorite places for funds. Their future trend will still be a spiral upward trend. If they can survive, every callback may be an opportunity to get on the bus..Another trend is that the current fund size has exceeded 22 trillion yuan, and it has increasingly become an important influencing force in A shares.According to statistics, as of June, the scale of funds available to buy A shares is still about 832.1 billion yuan, which is enough to set off huge waves for A shares.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e50a0054df2fa81074420fc304a4a7a\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"581\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In view of the fact that the past performance of funds in the past two years has generally been significantly stronger than the market, it is also a tricky way to make money by simply buying money to excellent fund managers and letting professionals do professional things. To a large extent, it can help us save the anxiety of not knowing what to invest in.<h3>3</h3><h3>epilogue</h3>Recently, many institutions have also released strategic reports for the second half of the year, which are generally similar to the ideas of this article, so the market consensus is still very strong.Investment often tests people's vision and determination when the direction is unclear. There will still be big ups and downs in the market in the second half of the year. Many people may disappear after floating in this fluctuation, but there will also be people who seize the opportunity to get on the right car in every callback.In the first half of the year, U.S. stocks continued to hit new highs, while A-shares and Hong Kong stocks were still stumbling, and even the direction was not completely out, which really made everyone feel uncomfortable.I hope that what I didn't earn in the first half of the year can be earned back in the second half of the year.","source":"stock_gelonghui","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Catching the top, plummeting, confused... 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Stock market inventory in the first half of 2021\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n格隆汇2021-06-30 20:56\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nTime flies, and unconsciously, in a few hours, the first half of this year will be confessed.Although money never sleeps and capital is ruthless, looking back at the madness and absurdity of the global capital market in the first half of the year, it still makes people feel emotional.After half a year's hard work, have you made any money?This article will summarize it with you, take a look at the ups and downs of global assets in the first half of the year, look for the context of market capital development, and see if we can get a glimpse of the investment direction in the second half of the year.<h3>1</h3><h3>Review of the first half of the year: the feast and hidden worries of global assets</h3>Although there is still the final battle of the first half of the year in the United States tonight, the asset price fluctuation ranking battle has basically been settled.In fact, in the first half of the year, commodities such as crude oil and non-ferrous metals were the strongest in the performance of major global assets, followed by stock markets of various countries, but this is also the second best record for the overall performance of global stock markets since 1998.Crude oil can be regarded as enjoying the dividend of epidemic recovery and surging after life. If the current oil price is compared with previous years, the price has not actually risen, but the stock market has indeed hit record highs in many countries, especially Markets such as Vietnam, South Korea, and India, which have been deeply hit by the epidemic this year, even experienced the fiercest gains.Behind this, the global crazy water release is indispensable.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7bd29c65f0d6ab28954e4a08d07bfb7\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"1898\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In terms of US stocks,The three major indexes rose by about 13%. There are several trends worth noting:First, the U.S. economic revitalization plan has indeed achieved results under the influence of massive water releases.The unilateral trend of the S&P 500 index and the Dow Jones index is obviously stable and stronger than that of the Nasdaq;Second, under the asset bubble, in fact, many central market capitalization stocks in several major markets performed very strongly.According to wind, the monthly turnover of the three major markets in the United States continued to soar from less than US $5 trillion in 2019 to over US $10 trillion at the beginning of this year, doubling. Although this doesn't mean there is a bubble, it can mean<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>The phenomenon of stock trading is very hot, and investors are highly motivated to participate.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e19bef62656c02b503a729b98984078\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"665\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Third, the valuation of the leading technology leaders has been fired to a historically high position, and many of them have increased by more than 30% year-on-year, which means the taste of bubbles to a certain extent.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52876d447552d21c688014f3ba93405a\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"715\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>For example,In the past 10 years, Apple's valuation has fluctuated around about 20 times on average, but since last year, it has broken through its own ceiling and abruptly raised a whole level. If it is a new incremental business with higher growth from then on, it can enjoy a higher valuation treatment than before, it is not a bad idea. However, judging from its business performance in the past two years and the various anti-monopoly sanctions it has encountered one after another, this assumption is not true.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0e6ec77088c81a003104228c03f3193\" tg-width=\"980\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This can be seen from the financial report data in recent years, and Apple's performance growth even has a downward trend. The main reason for its soaring valuation in the past two years may rely more on the continuous massive release of water from the United States and its own maintenance of stock price through continuous large-scale repurchases.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/338e62968a9609dad3c2742847ee9007\" tg-width=\"984\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In fact, other FAAMGs and other more large companies have continuously repurchased stocks in large amounts in the past two years, which has largely become an important force in maintaining stock prices.However, in the first half of the year, Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange surpassed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to become the two largest IPO financing exchanges in the world, with cumulative listing financing exceeding US $575.7 billion. U.S. stocks are still the hottest center of gravity in the world.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6110967c03aec012e0cf27f7c526d1d5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">A-sharesIf a few idioms are used to describe the overall performance of the first half of the year, it will be \"ups and downs, chicken feathers everywhere, and demons dancing wildly\". The super roller coaster market guidance in the first half of the year is still vivid in my mind. The final performance is: the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index only rose by 3.45% and 4.8%, far less than the 14% and 17.3% of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0104188115a595909e090ae9f6802ef\" tg-width=\"979\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">On the plate, the weight is low, the growth is a demon, and the style characteristics of the theme speculation are fully displayed, driven by crude oil and non-ferrous commodities, the entire traditional construction cycle industry has the strongest growth, followed by the continued surge in the concept of green new energy, and the new three idiots of biomedicine, consumption, and technology. Others are short-term themes that are hot for only three days, and they often end up in chicken feathers.But some people laughed, while others cried. Due to changes in macro policies and market preferences, non-bank finance and home appliances became the bleakest sectors in the first half of the year, among which the leaders in their respective industries collapsed.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc79e7ae4f9f5effaab99e0e7c985164\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"1772\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Looking back at the A-share market in the first half of the year, there are actually several unshakable main lines that have reached a consensus in the chaotic speculation of funds taking turns to sing operas.New energy (automobiles, photovoltaics), biomedicine (innovative drugs, medical beauty), new technology (Hongmeng,) high-end consumption (liquor, duty-free)Etc., accumulated a huge amount of capital, and also put<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">Ningde era</a>Pushed to a trillion-dollar market value,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>Now it has exceeded a record high of 700 billion.In the first half of the year, A-share listing financing was accelerating, with a total of 284 listings, doubling simultaneously, raising funds of 212.7 billion yuan, an increase of more than half.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdc22644e25b836c2c78844af7aad447\" tg-width=\"711\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Overall, the performance of A-shares in the first half of the year is still acceptable. At least the GEM has formed a bull market situation, and market confidence has gradually turned from worry to positive.In terms of Hong Kong stocks, although the Hong Kong stock market continued to have super giant companies listed in Hong Kong in the first half of the year, which attracted massive incremental funds, the overall performance was still worse than that of A shares.The Hang Seng Index is only 6%, and the state-owned enterprise index where domestic stocks are located is even negative.There are actually several main reasons behind the weak trend of Hong Kong stocks.Including the repeated impact of the epidemic, which has led to the cooling of the financial real estate consumer industry, the state's anti-monopoly crackdown on Internet giants as a big weight, and the high valuation premium of listed stocks returning to Hong Kong.This can be reflected in the trend of the Hang Seng New Economy Index, which has high hopes from the capital market. After a roller coaster market,The index is still digesting new logical changes, and these giants appear to have seriously high valuations.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53938955fe681bc0076dc9d5d8e3d702\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Hong Kong stocks as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00170\">China Capital</a>One of the important markets for overseas transit, the IPO market has been extremely hot. Although it was upstaged by US stocks this year, it actually performed very well. In the first half of the year, a total of 46 companies were newly listed, raising HK $213.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 130%.These include Kuaishou, JD.com,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>, Bilibili, Ctrip,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATHM\">Car Home</a>Wait for star companies。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae59433c0ab8709950d884d18a0f906d\" tg-width=\"946\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In terms of commodities, last year's epidemic had an impact on the upstream supply side, coupled with the strong recovery of the downstream demand side this year, and the agricultural output crisis, especially in the context of the global flood release, crude oil energy chemicals, copper, aluminum and iron,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">Agricultural products</a>Waiting for the joint resonance, global commodities are like wild horses, soaring.Up to now, the major factors affecting commodities have not seen significant changes. Under the current serious imbalance between supply and demand, it is easy to rise but difficult to fall.In addition, I have to talk about cryptocurrency. In this round of super roller coaster, before it fell, under the back and forth of Musk, the godfather of currency speculation, the Bitcoin once doubled, and the altcoin speculation was even more completely crazy, with increases of dozens or even hundreds of times. Dogecoin 400 times and shit coins 20,000 times, which continued to arouse the attention of the whole people and the anxiety of currency people, and finally ushered in strict bans from various countries. Overnight, the wealth of countless accounts with leveraged currency speculation was wiped out.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1d822121fdb50a88085adeae51e7a15\" tg-width=\"898\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Cryptocurrency can be said to be an abnormal market overflowed by the flood of global liquidity. In just a few months, it has been praised as the core asset of the future to the current speculation logic that has been smashed to pieces, which is embarrassing!Summarizing the performance of global assets in the first half of the year, it can be seen that the continuous release of global water is a common factor. Even in the context of the epidemic impacting economic operations and most enterprises facing downward pressure on operating performance, the asset price side can still be boosted by strengthening future expectations by massive release of water.. This is also the reason why global assets have risen sharply from the economy since last year.<h3>2</h3><h3>Outlook for the second half of the year: Where are the investment opportunities?</h3>The underlying factors affecting asset price fluctuations are nothing more thanLiquidity, supply and demand, economy, policyAspects.In the first half of the year, except for a few countries in the world, the overall economy took the repair route, which laid the foundation for the strengthening of the capital market.But there are also many problems caused by water release, includingPersistently high inflation, structural overheating of the economy, increasing imbalance between supply and demand, and soaring asset price bubbles.At present, the above problems facing the United States are particularly prominent. Regardless of the price increase of industrial supplies, real estate, consumer goods, etc., they are constantly creating new heights. The CPI in the United States soared to 5% in May, which was the level before the financial crisis broke out that year.The U.S. government debt ratio has reached a 150-year high, and Biden is still increasing the volume by trillions, constantly testing the bottom line of the market.Up to now, tightening liquidity to prevent overheating of the economic structure and stabilize inflation expectations has become a consideration that the United States has to face, and it has gradually become the consensus expectation of the global market.But once it is really tightened, the logic of the global capital market will undergo a fundamental turn, especially at the moment when the asset bubble is obvious, the risk impact is no less than the \"king explosion\".For China, there are still great economic and market worries in the second half of the year.In the past year, China's economy has been able to perform well in the epidemic, mainly due to the growth of exports. When most countries in the world, especially Europe and the United States, the main consumer markets, were deeply plagued by the epidemic and their production and life stagnated, China strongly controlled the epidemic, resumed work and production as soon as possible, and coupled with its existing manufacturing capacity, exported products to the world, and reaped the dividends of this wave of global epidemic.But now, the vaccination rate in Europe and the United States is getting higher and higher, many countries and regions have returned to normal production and life, and the demand for Chinese exports will gradually weaken. There is little chance that they want to continue to eat foreign trade dividends.The other two growth drivers-investment and consumption, can't give much hope. The three major blocks of investment, the manufacturing industry, is difficult to expand, and the infrastructure has been done well. In recent months, the operating rates of some major industrial sectors have shown signs of falling back.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee8a0552d2f6969db76cedffbe1e0fc3\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"632\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The trend of China's PMI data and social financing data in recent months also clearly shows a downward trend.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00d3462d319f9ea67b7652a6679c678d\" tg-width=\"915\" tg-height=\"632\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Although real estate can be used as a short-term stimulus, it will go back to the old road of water stimulation. Moreover, there is actually not much room for operation in domestic housing prices. In addition, the central government has repeatedly reiterated that \"housing is for living, not for speculation\". The road is basically blocked.Can you hope for consumption? That depends on<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Common people</a>How much money is left in the pocket? Looking at the current residents' willingness to spend, it seems that it is not very optimistic. Even though the country has done a lot of things, such as controlling housing prices, killing off-campus education, and liberalizing the third child, from the perspective of consumption growth, it is showing a downward trend.Therefore, the economic fundamentals in the second half of the year are still under pressure, and the stock market, as a barometer of the economy, will naturally be under pressure.Although theoretically, if the state adjusts liquidity, the pressure on the stock market can be alleviated, the problem is that this is unknown, not to mention the possible water collection behavior of the Federal Reserve.Therefore, don't expect too much from the market in the second half of the year, especially for U.S. stocks. No one can tell when rate hike, the gray rhinoceros, will come. The same goes for other commodity assets, not to mention cryptocurrencies.But for A-shares, it is not without opportunities.Funds always need to find a way out. When macro fundamentals are under pressure, they will tend to look for structural opportunities.Although popular main lines such as photovoltaics, carbon neutrality, new energy vehicles (smart cars), semiconductors, biomedicine, big data, 5G communication applications, and new consumption have been generally hyped this year,But in the long run, these are still sectors with certainty of growth, and they are also the favorite places for funds. Their future trend will still be a spiral upward trend. If they can survive, every callback may be an opportunity to get on the bus..Another trend is that the current fund size has exceeded 22 trillion yuan, and it has increasingly become an important influencing force in A shares.According to statistics, as of June, the scale of funds available to buy A shares is still about 832.1 billion yuan, which is enough to set off huge waves for A shares.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e50a0054df2fa81074420fc304a4a7a\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"581\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In view of the fact that the past performance of funds in the past two years has generally been significantly stronger than the market, it is also a tricky way to make money by simply buying money to excellent fund managers and letting professionals do professional things. To a large extent, it can help us save the anxiety of not knowing what to invest in.<h3>3</h3><h3>epilogue</h3>Recently, many institutions have also released strategic reports for the second half of the year, which are generally similar to the ideas of this article, so the market consensus is still very strong.Investment often tests people's vision and determination when the direction is unclear. There will still be big ups and downs in the market in the second half of the year. Many people may disappear after floating in this fluctuation, but there will also be people who seize the opportunity to get on the right car in every callback.In the first half of the year, U.S. stocks continued to hit new highs, while A-shares and Hong Kong stocks were still stumbling, and even the direction was not completely out, which really made everyone feel uncomfortable.I hope that what I didn't earn in the first half of the year can be earned back in the second half of the year.\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/472711\">格隆汇</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad2dd670f9557c66480c84fc5e4bd415","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/472711","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2147275816","content_text":"时间如梭，不知不觉，再过几个小时，今年上半年的时光就这么交待了。\n虽说金钱永不眠，资本多无情，但回顾上半年全球资本市场的疯狂与荒诞，还是不免让人心生感慨。\n辛辛苦苦大半年，你赚到了吗？\n本文和你一起总结一下，看看上半年全球的资产的兴兴落落，寻找市场资本发展的脉络，看能否窥探下半年的投资方向又在哪里。\n1\n上半年回顾：全球资产的盛宴与隐忧\n虽然今晚美国还有上半年的最后一战，但资产价格波动排位大战已基本尘埃落定。\n实际上，在上半年全球大类资产表现中，原油及有色等大宗商品是最强的，其次才是各国股市，但这也已是全球股市整体表现自从1998年以来第二好的记录了。\n原油算是享受疫情修复红利带来的死而后生式暴涨，如果拿当下的油价与前几年的相比，其实价格并没有涨上去，但股市确实是在很多国家都创出了历史新高，尤其今年还深受疫情冲击的越南、韩国、印度等市场甚至涨势最凶。\n这背后，全球性的疯狂放水功不可没。\n美股方面，三大指数涨幅约在13%附近。其中有几个趋势值得注意：\n一是美国的经济重振计划在海量放水影响下确实有所成效，标普500指数及道琼斯指数的单边趋势明显稳健强势于纳指；\n二是资产泡沫下，实际上几大市场很多中部市值股的表现都很强。据wind，美国三大市场的月成交从2019年的5万亿美元以下持续飙升至今年初破十万亿美元，翻了一番。虽然这并不能说明有泡沫，但能意味全民炒股现象很热，股民参与积极性很高。\n\n三是头部的科技龙头估值被炒到了历史偏高位置，很多同比上升有超30%，这一定程度上意味着泡沫的味道。\n\n以苹果为例，近10年以来苹果的估值平均在大概20倍附近波动，但去年开始就突破自身天花板，硬生生提升了一整个大level。如果它是从此有了更高成长性的新增量业务能让它享受比以往更高的估值待遇，未尝不可。但从近两年其业务表现，以及相继遇到的各种反垄断制裁看，这个假设并没有。\n\n这可以从近几年的财报数据看，苹果业绩增长甚至有下降趋势。而其近两年估值飙涨的主要原因，可能更多依赖于美国的持续海量放水以及自身通过不断大手笔回购，维护了股价。\n\n其实，其他FAAMG以及其他更多的大公司，都在这两年不断进行大额回购股票，很大程度上成为维护股价的重要力量。\n不过，上半年纳斯达克、纽交所超越港交所重新成为在全球IPO融资最大的两大交易所，累计上市融资超5757亿美元，美股依然是全球最热的重心。\n\nA股方面，如果是用几个成语来形容上半年的整体表现，那会是“大起大落、一地鸡毛、群魔乱舞”。上半年的超级过山车行情指导现在还历历在目，最终的表现是：沪指、深成指仅涨了3.45%、4.8%，远不及科创板和创业板的14%、17.3%。\n\n在板块上，权重低迷，成长作妖，题材乱炒的风格特征发挥的淋漓尽致，在原油、有色大宗商品带动下，整个传统建筑周期行业涨势最强，其次是绿色新能源概念的持续大涨，再次是生物医药、消费、科技这新三傻。其他的都是热不过三天的短线题材，往往结果一地鸡毛。\n但有人笑，也有人哭，由于宏观政策转变叠加市场偏好，导致非银金融及家电成为上半年最惨淡板块，其中又是各自行业龙头带崩。\n\n回顾上半年的A股，在题材搭台资金轮流唱戏的乱炒中，实际也有几个雷打不动的主线形成共识，新能源（汽车、光伏）、生物医药（创新药、医美）、新科技（鸿蒙、）高端消费（白酒，免税）等，沉淀了海量的资本，也把宁德时代推向了万亿市值，比亚迪现在也超过7千亿的历史新高。\n上半年的A股上市融资在加快，共有284家上市，同步翻倍，募集资金2127亿元，增长过半。\n\n整体看，上半年的A股还是表现算可以了，起码创业板形成了牛市的态势，市场信心也逐渐由担忧转向偏积极。\n港股方面，虽然上半年的港股市场不断有超级巨头公司赴港上市，为之引来了海量的增量资金，但整体表现依然更差于A股，恒指只有6%，内资股所在的国企指数甚至是负数。\n港股的弱势走势，背后其实有几个主要原因，包括疫情反复冲击，导致金融地产消费行业走冷、国家反垄断对作为大权重的互联网巨头打击、回港上市股开局估值溢价过高等。\n这可以从被资本市场给予厚望的恒生新经济指数走势中体现，走了一波过山车行情之后，指数仍在消化新逻辑变化之下，这些巨头们显得严重畸高的估值。\n\n港股作为中国资本出海中转的重要市场之一，IPO市场一直火热无比，今年虽然被美股抢了风头，其实也表现还很好。上半年累计新上市46家，募资2132亿港元，同比增了130%，其中包括快手，京东、百度、B站、携程、汽车之家等明星公司。\n\n大宗商品方面，去年的疫情对上游供应端冲击、叠加今年下游需求端的强势修复，农业产量危机、尤其在全球大放水背景下，原油能化、铜铝铁、农产品等联合共振，让全球大宗商品如同放缰野马，狂涨不止。\n截止目前，影响大宗商品的各大因素都还没看到明显转变，在当前供需严重失衡格局下，易涨难跌还在持续。\n此外还不得不说一下加密货币。在这一轮超级过山车中，在未跌之前，在炒币教父马斯克的来回翻腾下，比特币一度翻倍，山寨币炒作更是全面癫狂，不断出现数十倍，甚至上百倍涨幅，狗狗币400倍，屎币2万倍，不断引发全民关注与币民焦虑，也最终迎来各国的严令封杀，在一夜之间，无数上杠杆炒币的账户财富灰飞烟灭。\n\n加密货币可以说是全球流动性泛滥所溢出的畸形市场，短短数月就从被捧为未来核心资产到如今炒作逻辑都被打的稀巴烂，令人唏嘘！\n总结上半年全球资产表现，可以看出全球持续放水是共同因素，即使是在疫情冲击经济运行，企业层面多数面临经营业绩下滑压力的背景下，资产价格端依然可以通过海量放水强化未来预期来提振。这也是从去年到现在，全球资产一路脱离经济面大涨原因。\n2\n下半年展望：投资机遇在哪里？\n影响资产价格波动的底层因素不外乎流动性、供需、经济、政策方面。\n上半年，全球除了少部分国家，整体经济是走修复路线的，这是为资本市场走强打下了基础。\n但放水导致的问题也很多，包括持续高企的通胀、经济结构性过热、供需加剧失衡、资产价格泡沫飙升等。\n美国目前面临的上述问题尤其突出。无论工业用品、房地产、居民消费品等价格的涨幅，都不断在创造新高度。美国5月的CPI都飙到了5%，那是当年金融危机爆发前的水平。\n美国的政府债务率已经创150年新高，拜登还在万亿万亿地加量，不断试探市场的底线。\n到如今，通过收紧流动性来预防经济结构过热，稳定通胀预期，成为美国不得不面临的考虑，也逐渐成为全球市场的一致预期。\n但一旦真的收紧，全球资本市场的逻辑都会发生根本性转向，尤其在资产泡沫化明显的当下，风险影响不亚于“王炸”。\n对中国而言，下半年经济面及市场的隐忧都仍然很大。\n过去一年，中国经济能够在疫情中有不错的表现，主要原因是出口的增长，在全球大部分国家尤其是主要的消费市场--欧美，深受疫情困扰生产生活停滞之时，中国因为强力管控疫情，最快复工复产，加上本就拥有的制造业能力，为全球输出产品，吃到了这波全球疫情红利。\n但现在，欧美的疫苗接种率越来越高，不少国家和地区都已经恢复正常的生产生活，对中国出口产品的需求也会逐渐减弱，还想继续吃外贸红利，机会不大。\n而另外两个增长动力--投资和消费，也不可能给予太大希望，投资的三大块，制造业很难有扩张，基建也已经做得七七八八，近几个月已有一些主要工业部门开工率已经有回落迹象。\n\n近月的中国PMI数据和社融数据趋势，也明显看出了下行的趋势。\n\n而房地产虽然可以作为短期刺激手段，但又会走回放水刺激的老路，而且现在国内的房价，其实也没有太多可操作的空间，加上中央不断重申“房住不炒”，房地产这条路也基本堵死了。\n消费能寄望一下吗？那得看老百姓兜里还有多少钱，看看现在的居民消费意愿，貌似也没有很乐观。即使国家做了很多事，控房价、杀校外教育、放开三胎，但从消费增速上看，呈现的是下滑态势。\n所以下半年的经济基本面，还是承压的，股市作为经济的晴雨表，自然也会压力重重。虽然理论上，如果国家对流动性作出调节，那么股市的压力是可以缓解，问题就在于这个都是未知之数，何况还要面对美联储可能出现的收水行为。\n所以，下半年的行情不要寄望太多，尤其对于美股，谁也说不清楚加息这个灰犀牛什么时候会来。其他大宗商品资产也一样，加密货币就更加不用看了。\n但对A股来说，也不是没有机会。\n资金总是需要找寻出路的，在宏观基本面受压的情况下，它们会倾向于寻找结构性的机会。\n今年以来的光伏、碳中和、新能源车（智能汽车）、半导体、生物医药、大数据、5G通信应用、新消费等热门主线虽然已经普遍炒很高了，但从长远看，这些仍然是具备增长确定性板块，也是资金一直最爱去的地方，其未来的走势仍然会是螺旋上升态势，如果熬得住，每一次的回调，都可能是上车机会。\n另外一个趋势是，现在的基金规模已经超过22万亿，越来越成为了A股重要影响力量。据统计到6月为止可用于买A股的资金规模还有大约8321亿元，这个力量，足以对A股掀起滔天巨浪。\n\n鉴于近两年基金的往期表现普遍明显强于大市，所以直接干脆点，把钱买交给优秀基金经理打理，让专业人做专业事，也不失为一个躺赚的取巧方式，也很大程度上能帮我们省去不知道该投资什么的焦虑。\n3\n结语\n在近期，陆续有很多机构也发布下半年的策略报告，大体上跟本文的思路差不多，所以市场共识还是很强的。\n投资往往在方向不明朗的才能考验人的眼光和定力。下半年的市场大起大落依然还会出现，很多人可能这一次次波动中漂着漂着就不见踪影了，但也会有人在每一次回调中抓住机会上对了车。\n上半年美股继续创新高，A股港股还在跌跌撞撞，连方向都没完全走出来，确实让大家憋得难受。\n希望上半年没赚到的，下半年都能赚回来吧。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"HSI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2675,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}