19 June 2021: My updated thoughts on Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin had rallied past 40,000 USD after Elon Musk tweeted that Telsa will accept Bitcoin again after it showed that the Bitcoin mining has used more than 50% renewable energy to do mining. However, over the last few days, Bitcoin did not cross over 40,000 USD and at this present moment, Bitcoin is around 35,000 USD. Againthere , I usually saw Bitcoin experiencing weakness over the weekend so it wouldnt be a surprise that Bitcoin would rebound back to around 38,000 USD... But as always, is this a sign to buy Bitcoin when it hits back above 38,000 USD?
My view is that I would not buy Bitcoin at this present level. Being the market leader in cryptocurrency, it is likely to impact on other cryptocurrencies. Tesla nevertheless, was slightly stronger at 1.2% up by close of market yesterday at 623 USD. This is despite Nasdaq 100 being slightly down around 1% last night... Dogecoin is now back to below 30 US cents at 28.9 US cents... Nano at 5.98 USD, ETH at 2,219 USD (down 5%) and Bitcoin is down 6.6% this afternoon (1.30 p.m. at Singapore and China time)... Readers know that I will not be surprised that the "lottery" cryptocurrency aka Dogecoin is subject to the whim of Elon Musk and who knows if it may soar again but but AVID readers do recall that I will not be surprised that Bitcoin could fall below 17,000 USD and below, Dogecoin to 14 US cents and Nano to below 3 USD... As always, I could be wrong as there is still a chance for an upleg but to me, I have downgraded my view of the 50 to 50% chance for the upleg and it is back down to 60% chance for Bitcoin to fall to 31,000 and then touch 28,000 USD and if this cannot hold, the downleg to 17,000 USD may be very rapid.... Even then, the exact timing is not known as to when i will buy cryptocurrencies. @
As always, I would not use leverage for cryptocurrency investments... It is extremely volatile and I would not allocate more than 3% of my deployable capital into cryptocurrencies. Again, @巫天華 @老虎證券, as a tiger brokers $老虎證券(TIGR)$ long-term investor, I will only be looking to invest in cryptocurrencies via Tiger Broker platform. With my view that there would be a downleg, it is important to expedite the push to secure the necessary licenses in time so that when the downleg has ocurred and is over, this provides a tremendous good opportunity for faithful Tiger Brokers' investor like me to use Tiger Broker's platform to invest in selected cryptocurrencies. This will provide a base of capital again. Coupled with a launch of a more comprehensive cryptocurrencies offering, this should entice more users to flock to Tiger Broker platform as compared to Futu and therefore create higher revenue stream and interest income stream due to capital allocated into cryptocurrencies.
Long story short is that there is an increased chance for Bitcoin to hit back 34,000 USD then 31,000 USD and test 28,000 USD and if Bitcoin cannot hold 28,000 USD, then it could break down badly to 17,000 USD. As always, I take pride in being good at numbers and this is my edge. Do take some time to reflect and think through what is your edge to survive and make money in the financial markets over the long term.
As always, I could be wrong....
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PS.still Buying nano ??✌️