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2021-06-19

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While the Fed turns hawkish, Goldman Sachs is bullish on gold again: an excellent defensive variety

受美联储政策决议影响，本周多个市场剧烈波动，黄金大跌，但高盛表示继续看好黄金后市，并预测未来几周内黄金价格将出现上行逆转。

While the Fed turns hawkish, Goldman Sachs is bullish on gold again: an excellent defensive variety

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One of its studies said:</p><p><span>Gold has not seen strong growth in previous inflation scenarios, which may mean that demand for gold is limited, whether as a defensive asset or as an inflation hedge.</span></p><p><span>But that's not the case, for two reasons.</span></p><p><span>First, as our interest rate strategists point out, the current 10-year breakeven inflation rate appears too low compared to the inflation path our economists predict.</span><span>In fact, this means little to no inflation risk premium for years to come.</span></p><p><span>Second, if the Fed's expectations for short-term inflation materialize, rate hike will start to be an unnecessary headwind to the global recovery, damaging economic growth expectations and boosting the defensive value of gold.</span></p><p>In addition, for the bulk and crude oil markets, Goldman Sachs also said:</p><p>The recent decline in commodity prices due to the Federal Reserve's decision to bring forward its rate hike forecast to 2023 is a buying opportunity for investors. The bullish commodity argument is neither about inflation risks nor about the Fed's forward guidance. It's about scarcity and strong real demand.</p><p>Due to strong demand<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00001\">Changhe</a>Considering the inelastic supply, we believe the resulting physical scarcity may push Brent crude oil prices to an average of $80 in the third quarter and may soar above that level.</p><p>In addition, Goldman Sachs also expressed Bitcoin's views.</p><p>With the rapid rise in Bitcoin prices since last year, more and more people call it \"digital gold.\"</p><p>Goldman Sachs disagrees with this view. Its head of commodity research Jeff Currie said on Tuesday's CNBC program \"Squawk Box Europe\":</p><p>While both gold and cryptocurrencies are seen as hedges against rising prices, cryptocurrencies are not a substitute for gold, but more like a substitute for copper.</p><p>Gold is usually regarded as a safe-haven asset, but Bitcoin and copper are both risky assets. Cryptocurrencies are an alternative to risky inflation hedges rather than risk-averse ones.</p><p>Different from the situation where gold prices have been sluggish since hitting a new all-time high last year, Bitcoin hit a previous all-time high of US $18,000 in November 2020, which exceeded its previous all-time high of US $18,000 in December 2017, and continued to break through after a short correction., and finally rose to an all-time high of US $64,000 per coin in April this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/96db662a-7eb2-4689-a725-d1720ef161a0.png\"/></p><p>As of press time, Bitcoin has fallen below $36,000, down more than 40% from its April high.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>While the Fed turns hawkish, Goldman Sachs is bullish on gold again: an excellent defensive variety</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhile the Fed turns hawkish, Goldman Sachs is bullish on gold again: an excellent defensive variety\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-19 19:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>Gold fell sharply this week after the Fed unexpectedly released a hawk, but<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>But insisting on the bullish position remains unchanged.</p><p>Gold prices fell more than 6% this week, the largest weekly drop since March 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/7bfee0f9-fe40-428e-9f7a-b3fd14de302f.png\"/></p><p>The price of gold once hit an all-time high of US $2,075.47/oz on August 7, 2020, exceeding the earlier high of US $1,920.3/oz set on September 6, 2011, but has never broken through this high since then, and has long been below the price of $2,000/oz.</p><p>On this occasion, Goldman Sachs said that the price of gold will reverse upward in the next few weeks. One of its studies said:</p><p><span>Gold has not seen strong growth in previous inflation scenarios, which may mean that demand for gold is limited, whether as a defensive asset or as an inflation hedge.</span></p><p><span>But that's not the case, for two reasons.</span></p><p><span>First, as our interest rate strategists point out, the current 10-year breakeven inflation rate appears too low compared to the inflation path our economists predict.</span><span>In fact, this means little to no inflation risk premium for years to come.</span></p><p><span>Second, if the Fed's expectations for short-term inflation materialize, rate hike will start to be an unnecessary headwind to the global recovery, damaging economic growth expectations and boosting the defensive value of gold.</span></p><p>In addition, for the bulk and crude oil markets, Goldman Sachs also said:</p><p>The recent decline in commodity prices due to the Federal Reserve's decision to bring forward its rate hike forecast to 2023 is a buying opportunity for investors. The bullish commodity argument is neither about inflation risks nor about the Fed's forward guidance. It's about scarcity and strong real demand.</p><p>Due to strong demand<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00001\">Changhe</a>Considering the inelastic supply, we believe the resulting physical scarcity may push Brent crude oil prices to an average of $80 in the third quarter and may soar above that level.</p><p>In addition, Goldman Sachs also expressed Bitcoin's views.</p><p>With the rapid rise in Bitcoin prices since last year, more and more people call it \"digital gold.\"</p><p>Goldman Sachs disagrees with this view. Its head of commodity research Jeff Currie said on Tuesday's CNBC program \"Squawk Box Europe\":</p><p>While both gold and cryptocurrencies are seen as hedges against rising prices, cryptocurrencies are not a substitute for gold, but more like a substitute for copper.</p><p>Gold is usually regarded as a safe-haven asset, but Bitcoin and copper are both risky assets. Cryptocurrencies are an alternative to risky inflation hedges rather than risk-averse ones.</p><p>Different from the situation where gold prices have been sluggish since hitting a new all-time high last year, Bitcoin hit a previous all-time high of US $18,000 in November 2020, which exceeded its previous all-time high of US $18,000 in December 2017, and continued to break through after a short correction., and finally rose to an all-time high of US $64,000 per coin in April this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/96db662a-7eb2-4689-a725-d1720ef161a0.png\"/></p><p>As of press time, Bitcoin has fallen below $36,000, down more than 40% from its April high.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3633330\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09a7b30204158feaaaf0f4efc19f31f","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","518880":"黄金ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","GS":"高盛","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3633330","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144670555","content_text":"本周，美联储意外放鹰后，黄金大跌，但高盛却坚持看多立场不变。\n金价本周累跌超6%，创自从2020年3月以来最大单周跌幅。\n\n金价曾于2020年8月7日创下2075.47美元/盎司的历史最高价，超过更早时于2011年9月6日创下的1920.3美元/盎司，但之后便再未突破这一高点，并长期位于2000美元/盎司价格下方。\n在此之际，高盛却表示未来几周内黄金价格将出现上行逆转。其一份研究称：\n\n在此前的通胀情况下，黄金并未出现强劲增长，这或许意味着无论是作为防御性资产还是通胀对冲，对黄金的需求都有限。\n但事实并不是如此，原因有二。\n首先，正如我们利率策略师指出的，当前的10年盈亏平衡通胀率，与我们的经济学家预测的通胀路径相比显得过低。事实上，这意味着未来几年几乎没有通胀风险溢价。\n其次，如果美联储对短期通胀的预期成为现实，加息将开始成为全球复苏不必要的阻力，损害经济增长预期，并提高黄金的防御性价值。\n\n此外，对于大宗和原油市场，高盛还表示：\n\n由于美联储决定将加息预测提前至2023年，大宗商品价格近期出现了下跌，这对投资者来说是一个买入机会。看涨大宗商品的论点既不是关于通胀风险，也不是关于美联储前瞻指引。而是关于稀缺性和强劲的实际需求。\n出于对强劲的需求增长和缺乏弹性的供应的考虑，我们认为由此造成的实物稀缺可能将推动布伦特原油价格在第三季度达到平均80美元，并可能飙升至该水平之上。\n\n此外，高盛也表达了比特币的看法。\n随着去年以来比特币价格的快速上涨，越来越多人称其为“数字黄金”。\n高盛则不认同该看法，其大宗商品研究主管Jeff Currie在参加本周二的CNBC节目《Squawk Box Europe》节目时表示：\n\n虽然黄金和加密货币都被视作对冲价格上涨的工具，但加密货币不是黄金的替代品，而更像是铜的替代品。\n黄金通常被视作一种避险资产，但比特币和铜都表现为风险资产。加密货币是风险性通胀对冲工具的替代品，而不是风险规避性通胀对冲工具。\n\n不同于金价自去年创下新的历史高位便开始萎靡的情况，比特币在2020年11月创下超过其2017年12月的1.8万美元的上个阶段历史高点后，经过了短暂回调后又持续突破，并最终在今年4月涨至最高6.4万美元/枚的历史高点。\n\n截至本文发稿，比特币跌至3.6万美元下方，较其4月的高点跌超40%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.6,"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"518880":0.6,"SGCmain":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SGUmain":0.6,"GLD":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"GCmain":1,"UDOW":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"NUGT":0.6,"QID":0.6,"MGCmain":1,"DJX":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"IAU":0.6,"SPY":1,"ESmain":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"DUST":0.6,"GDX":0.6,"GS":1,"TQQQ":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,".DJI":1,"QLD":0.6,".IXIC":1,"DDM":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"OEX":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SSO":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1737,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}