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lwj1
2021-06-21

The U.S. bond yield curve is flattening, why is the market uneasy about the Fed?

美联储在上周暗示加息快于预期之后，10年期和30年期美债收益率下挫，收益率曲线趋平。分析师表示，许多投资者正在对押注通胀走高的交易进行平仓，因美联储声称不会让通胀飙升至令人担忧的水平。具体来看，6月

The U.S. bond yield curve is flattening, why is the market uneasy about the Fed?

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":167834181,"tweetId":"167834181","gmtCreate":1624257481943,"gmtModify":1703831759864,"author":{"id":3585303194220633,"idStr":"3585303194220633","authorId":3585303194220633,"authorIdStr":"3585303194220633","name":"lwj1","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":2,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>?</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>?</body></html>","text":"?","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/167834181","repostId":2145233083,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2145233083","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1624255407,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2145233083?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-21 14:03","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The U.S. bond yield curve is flattening, why is the market uneasy about the Fed?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2145233083","media":"Wind万得","summary":"美联储在上周暗示加息快于预期之后，10年期和30年期美债收益率下挫，收益率曲线趋平。分析师表示，许多投资者正在对押注通胀走高的交易进行平仓，因美联储声称不会让通胀飙升至令人担忧的水平。\n具体来看，6月","content":"After the Federal Reserve signaled faster-than-expected rate hike last week, 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields fell and the yield curve flattened. Analysts said many investors are unwinding trades betting on higher inflation as the Federal Reserve claims it won't let inflation soar to worrying levels.Specifically, on June 21, the 30-year U.S. bond yield fell below 2%, the first time since February; The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell below 1.428%, continuing to hit a new low since March 3.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94e3fcd2fc407f1a5a6c561e5efb918b\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\"The market now appears to have shifted from the notion that the Fed will let inflation go higher to the Fed will kill inflation in its cradle,\" said Gennadiy Goldberg, a New York-based interest rate strategist at TD Securities, adding further that \"the truth may be somewhere in between.\"\"They're trying to tighten their grip on the narrative, and I don't think policymakers want people to think that the Fed is behind the curve on inflation,\" Goldberg said.Yields rose on Friday after St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said he thinks a rate hike will begin next year as inflation is rising faster than expected. \"We were expecting a good year, a good reopening, but inflation is higher this year than we expected, and I think it's natural to be more hawkish to control inflationary pressures,\" Bullard said.After Bullard's voice, the yield curve continued to flatten. 5-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields flattened to 111 basis points, the smallest gap since September last year. Analysts said market interpretations of the current yield curve flattening were overblown as investors closed out crowded trading betting on a steepening curve.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Analysts said: \"We believe steep yields on the long end could be used as an aggressive arbitrage method for high yields, especially just two years after the expected Fed rate hike, and the liquidation of these positions increases the yield curve. pressure to flatten.\"Deutsche Bank: The Fed faces many difficulties in tightening policyAt the same time, some analysts interpreted the flattening of U.S. bond yields as a manifestation of the Fed's policy mistakes.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Chief foreign exchange strategist George Saravelos said that the change in U.S. bond yields can be attributed to the market's pessimistic expectations for the real neutral interest rate (r *).Saravelos analyzes the market impact of the Federal Reserve's early rate hike from three perspectives, starting with the US dollar part.The sharp rise in the dollar is perfectly in line with the conventional wisdom that what matters most to the dollar is the front-end real interest rate.The Fed's rate hike is expected to rise sharply in 2023 and support short-term strength of the dollar. Even if the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield doesn't hit a new high, it's not surprising that the dollar has rebounded strongly.The second is the commodity perspective: just as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0H7D.UK\">Deutsche Bank</a>As strategists pointed out,The role of the Federal Reserve in driving up commodity prices should not be underestimated, perhaps best illustrated by the current high correlation between the dollar and base metal prices.Saravelos quoted the team of Deutsche Bank's fixed income unit as saying that there is an extremely strong link between the Fed's balance sheet, commodity prices and inflation expectations, and in fact the tapering in 2013 also marked the peak of inflation expectations at that time.Similarly, economists have shown that even survey-based measures of inflation expectations, such as the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, are highly correlated with commodity prices.All of this reinforces the idea that the Fed can be stronger than commonly assumed in influencing inflation expectations through the dollar and commodities.Finally, and most importantly, is the angle of bonds and real neutral interest rates (r *). After the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision, the yield curve quickly flattened. According to Saravelos, this is highly unusual given that the Fed hasn't even begun a rate hike. While the market has already priced up for rate hike in 2023 and 2024, yields have fallen after that,Investors believe that the Fed's second rate hike cycle is less than two years away.Saravelos believes that what the above tells us is that, unlike in 2015, the market is now extremely pessimistic about the real neutral interest rate (or r *). In other words,Markets believe the Fed won't go too far in tightening until inflation and economic growth hit their limits, depressing yield expectations after the first rate hike.In addition, Saravelos also added two factors to illustrate that the Fed's early tightening of policy will \"hit hard\" the economy: in the global low interest rate environment, investors' huge demand for yields forced the dollar to strengthen and push deflation faster than expected; At the same time, the lower r * is consistent with the continued resilience of the stock market, especially growth stocks that rely heavily on lower medium-term discount rates.Although the movement in yields for several days does not constitute a trend yet, it cannot be denied that the market is sending some special signals. Meanwhile, Saravelis has emphasized in recent weeks that as the economy transitions from the second half of a V-shaped recovery to a post-pandemic stabilization, some disturbing issues have resurfaced, such as the structural damage caused by the pandemic to private sector savings rates, and new equilibrium real interest rate levels.All in all, some investors have begun to worry that the Fed's too quick pivot will cause the economy to shift from inflation to deflation. At that time, the fiscal stimulus plan may have ended, and policy makers will face a more passive situation.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The U.S. bond yield curve is flattening, why is the market uneasy about the Fed?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe U.S. bond yield curve is flattening, why is the market uneasy about the Fed?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\nWind万得 \n2021-06-21 14:03\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAfter the Federal Reserve signaled faster-than-expected rate hike last week, 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields fell and the yield curve flattened. Analysts said many investors are unwinding trades betting on higher inflation as the Federal Reserve claims it won't let inflation soar to worrying levels.Specifically, on June 21, the 30-year U.S. bond yield fell below 2%, the first time since February; The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell below 1.428%, continuing to hit a new low since March 3.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94e3fcd2fc407f1a5a6c561e5efb918b\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\"The market now appears to have shifted from the notion that the Fed will let inflation go higher to the Fed will kill inflation in its cradle,\" said Gennadiy Goldberg, a New York-based interest rate strategist at TD Securities, adding further that \"the truth may be somewhere in between.\"\"They're trying to tighten their grip on the narrative, and I don't think policymakers want people to think that the Fed is behind the curve on inflation,\" Goldberg said.Yields rose on Friday after St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said he thinks a rate hike will begin next year as inflation is rising faster than expected. \"We were expecting a good year, a good reopening, but inflation is higher this year than we expected, and I think it's natural to be more hawkish to control inflationary pressures,\" Bullard said.After Bullard's voice, the yield curve continued to flatten. 5-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields flattened to 111 basis points, the smallest gap since September last year. Analysts said market interpretations of the current yield curve flattening were overblown as investors closed out crowded trading betting on a steepening curve.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Analysts said: \"We believe steep yields on the long end could be used as an aggressive arbitrage method for high yields, especially just two years after the expected Fed rate hike, and the liquidation of these positions increases the yield curve. pressure to flatten.\"Deutsche Bank: The Fed faces many difficulties in tightening policyAt the same time, some analysts interpreted the flattening of U.S. bond yields as a manifestation of the Fed's policy mistakes.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Chief foreign exchange strategist George Saravelos said that the change in U.S. bond yields can be attributed to the market's pessimistic expectations for the real neutral interest rate (r *).Saravelos analyzes the market impact of the Federal Reserve's early rate hike from three perspectives, starting with the US dollar part.The sharp rise in the dollar is perfectly in line with the conventional wisdom that what matters most to the dollar is the front-end real interest rate.The Fed's rate hike is expected to rise sharply in 2023 and support short-term strength of the dollar. Even if the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield doesn't hit a new high, it's not surprising that the dollar has rebounded strongly.The second is the commodity perspective: just as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0H7D.UK\">Deutsche Bank</a>As strategists pointed out,The role of the Federal Reserve in driving up commodity prices should not be underestimated, perhaps best illustrated by the current high correlation between the dollar and base metal prices.Saravelos quoted the team of Deutsche Bank's fixed income unit as saying that there is an extremely strong link between the Fed's balance sheet, commodity prices and inflation expectations, and in fact the tapering in 2013 also marked the peak of inflation expectations at that time.Similarly, economists have shown that even survey-based measures of inflation expectations, such as the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, are highly correlated with commodity prices.All of this reinforces the idea that the Fed can be stronger than commonly assumed in influencing inflation expectations through the dollar and commodities.Finally, and most importantly, is the angle of bonds and real neutral interest rates (r *). After the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision, the yield curve quickly flattened. According to Saravelos, this is highly unusual given that the Fed hasn't even begun a rate hike. While the market has already priced up for rate hike in 2023 and 2024, yields have fallen after that,Investors believe that the Fed's second rate hike cycle is less than two years away.Saravelos believes that what the above tells us is that, unlike in 2015, the market is now extremely pessimistic about the real neutral interest rate (or r *). In other words,Markets believe the Fed won't go too far in tightening until inflation and economic growth hit their limits, depressing yield expectations after the first rate hike.In addition, Saravelos also added two factors to illustrate that the Fed's early tightening of policy will \"hit hard\" the economy: in the global low interest rate environment, investors' huge demand for yields forced the dollar to strengthen and push deflation faster than expected; At the same time, the lower r * is consistent with the continued resilience of the stock market, especially growth stocks that rely heavily on lower medium-term discount rates.Although the movement in yields for several days does not constitute a trend yet, it cannot be denied that the market is sending some special signals. Meanwhile, Saravelis has emphasized in recent weeks that as the economy transitions from the second half of a V-shaped recovery to a post-pandemic stabilization, some disturbing issues have resurfaced, such as the structural damage caused by the pandemic to private sector savings rates, and new equilibrium real interest rate levels.All in all, some investors have begun to worry that the Fed's too quick pivot will cause the economy to shift from inflation to deflation. At that time, the fiscal stimulus plan may have ended, and policy makers will face a more passive situation.\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c4c12ced42f6e049ccefa5fe31f231f","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".DJI":"道琼斯","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2145233083","content_text":"美联储在上周暗示加息快于预期之后，10年期和30年期美债收益率下挫，收益率曲线趋平。分析师表示，许多投资者正在对押注通胀走高的交易进行平仓，因美联储声称不会让通胀飙升至令人担忧的水平。\n具体来看，6月21日，30年期美债收益率跌破2%，为2月以来首次;10年期美债收益率跌破1.428%，续刷3月3日来新低。\n\n道明证券(TD Securities)驻纽约的利率策略师根纳迪·戈德伯格(Gennadiy Goldberg)表示：“市场现在似乎已经由美联储将放任通胀走高的观点，转向美联储将把通胀扼杀在摇篮中。”该策略师进一步补充称“真相可能介于两者之间。”\n“他们正试图加强对叙事的控制，我认为政策制定者不希望人们认为美联储在通胀方面落后于曲线，”戈德伯格说。\n上周五，圣路易斯联邦储备银行行长詹姆斯布拉德表示，由于通胀上升速度快于预期，他认为明年将开始加息，收益率上涨。“我们原本期待一个好年头，一个好的重新开放，但今年通胀率比我们预期的要高，我认为更倾向于鹰派以控制通胀压力是很自然的，”布拉德说。\n布拉德发声之后，收益率曲线继续趋于平缓。5年期和30年期美债收益率趋于平缓至 111个基点，达到自去年9月以来最小的差距。分析师表示，由于投资者平仓押注曲线趋陡的拥挤交易，对于当前收益率曲线趋平的市场解读被夸大了。\n摩根大通分析师表示：“我们认为，长端陡峭的收益率可能被用作高收益率的积极套利方式，尤其是在预期的美联储升息仅有两年之后，而这些头寸的平仓增加了收益率曲线趋平的压力。”\n德银：美联储收紧政策面临诸多难题\n与此同时，也有分析师将美债收益率趋平解读为美联储政策失误的体现。德意志银行首席外汇策略师George Saravelos表示，美债收益率变化可以归结于，市场对实际中性利率(r*)持悲观预期。\nSaravelos从三个角度分析美联储提前加息的市场影响，首先是美元部分。美元的大幅上涨完全符合传统观点，即对美元来说最重要的是前端实际利率。美联储加息预期在2023年大幅走高，并支撑美元短期走强。即使10年期美国国债收益率没有创新高，美元强劲反弹也不足为奇。\n其次是商品角度：正如德意志银行策略师所指出的那样，美联储在推高大宗商品价格方面所扮演的角色不应被低估，目前美元和贱金属价格之间的高度相关性或许最能说明这一点。Saravelos援引德意志银行固定收益部门团队观点称，美联储的资产负债表、大宗商品价格和通胀预期之间存在着极其强大的联系，而事实上2013年的缩减也标志着当时的通胀预期见顶。\n同样，经济学家已经表明，即使是基于调查的通胀预期指标，如密歇根州消费信心指数，也与商品价格具有高度相关性。所有这些都强化了这一点，即美联储在通过美元和大宗商品影响通胀预期方面可以比通常假设的更强大。\n最后，也是最重要的，是债券和实际中性利率(r*)的角度。在美联储公布利率决议后，收益率曲线迅速趋平。根据Saravelos的说法，鉴于美联储甚至还没有开始加息，这是极不寻常的。尽管市场对2023年和2024年加息的定价已经上升，但之后的收益率却下降了，投资者认为美联储次轮加息周期只有不到两年时间。\nSaravelos认为，上述情况告诉我们的是，与2015年不同，现在市场对实际中性利率(或称r*)的看法极其悲观。换句话说，市场认为在通胀和经济增长触及极限之前，美联储不会在收紧政策上走得太远，从而压低了首次加息后的收益率预期。\n此外，Saravelos还补充了两个因素，以说明美联储提前收紧政策将对经济造成“重创”：在全球低利率环境下，投资者对收益率的巨大需求迫使美元走强，并以比预期更快的速度推动通缩;同时，较低的r*与股市的持续弹性相一致，尤其是严重依赖于较低中期贴现率的成长型股票。\n尽管收益率几天的变动尚不构成趋势，但不能否认市场正在发出一些特殊的信号。同时，Saravelis近几周一直强调，随着经济从V型复苏的下半场过度到疫情之后的稳定状态，一些令人不安的问题重新浮出水面，例如疫情对私营部门储蓄率造成的结构性破坏，以及新的均衡实际利率水平。\n总而言之，部分投资者已开始担心，美联储的过快转向将导致经济从通胀转向通缩。而彼时财政刺激计划或许已经结束，政策制定者将面临更为被动的局面。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"SSO":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"SH":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"QID":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"OEF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1357,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}