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Cosmo93
2021-07-22

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Q2's Stock-Bond Correlation Regime Has Collapsed As VIX Curve Anticipates J-Hole Turbulence

Since the start of Q2 2021 bond prices and stock prices have, quite unusually, risen alongside each

Q2's Stock-Bond Correlation Regime Has Collapsed As VIX Curve Anticipates J-Hole Turbulence

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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQ2's Stock-Bond Correlation Regime Has Collapsed As VIX Curve Anticipates J-Hole Turbulence\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-22 16:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/q2s-stock-bond-correlation-regime-has-collapsed-vix-curve-anticipates-j-hole-turbulence><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Since the start of Q2 2021 bond prices and stock prices have, quite unusually, risen alongside each other as they each reinforced the narrative of a reflation trade that will lift all equity boats and...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/q2s-stock-bond-correlation-regime-has-collapsed-vix-curve-anticipates-j-hole-turbulence\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/q2s-stock-bond-correlation-regime-has-collapsed-vix-curve-anticipates-j-hole-turbulence","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178837432","content_text":"Since the start of Q2 2021 bond prices and stock prices have, quite unusually, risen alongside each other as they each reinforced the narrative of a reflation trade that will lift all equity boats and sink all bond boats.\nBut, since the start of the week stocks and bond yields have re-engaged in their more 'normal' (yields down, stocks down) relationship...\nSource: Bloomberg\nSuddenly breaking the prevailing 2021 relationship regime and creatinga negative 2-month rolling correlation between bond prices and equity prices(positive correlation between bond yields and equity prices)...\nAs Goldman notes, should that correlation persist (and the lower interest rates go, the more likely it is to, in our view),bonds may regain attractiveness as a diversifying asset,potentially reducing some demand for equity protection (even though for now thebid for downside tail risk,as we detailed earlier, is at panic highs).\nBut, perhaps what they are all really worrying about its the potential for a hawkish surprise at the late-August Jackson Hole conference.\nThat fear is clearly seen inthe VIX term structure as it abruptly turns upward-sloping around the Fed’s Jackson Hole conference - reflecting concern about elevated volatility that week.\nThis elevated fear of turbulence around Jackson Hole is also evident in the significant demand for deep OTM VIX calls (in other words, investors are paying more than ever to protect against a March 2020-style event in stock markets).\n50-strike VIX calls cost far more than they did with VIX futures at a comparable level - reflecting an extreme bid for tail risk protection\nImplicitly the market is saying that 2020-2021 is representative of the range of possibilities in the next four weeks- which would mean that a 50+ VIX is far more likely (VIX>50 4.6% of the time in 2020-2021) than it is in normal times (VIX>50 0.7%/1.5%/1.0% of the time over the past 10/20/30 years).\nMeanwhile, equity indices are rapidly ramping back towards record highs without a care in the world.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":224,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":8,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}