Wait, wait, wait... Grow, Grow Grow
If there is one thing the market has taught me, it's to have patience. I have began to see investing like growing a plant. One example of a stock which I "cultivate" is $DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD(D05.SI)$
Since then, $DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD(D05.SI)$ has yielded good fruits for me (via dividends, which are record dividends at $0.92 at the start of the year). I did sell them last Dec (at $34) and that was opportunistic but in general, I think I've learnt that it's important to buy DBS at the right cost (which I believe it to be at $30) and to hold. But with my selling at $34, perhaps this selling could be considered as the "reaping of fruits". I often remember Warren Buffet's advice to buy when the market is fearful and sell at the sound of trumpets, which is why I sold it when it reached that high. However, I still want to hold DBS which is why I bought it back when it was lower ($33). Although it is has gone lower to $30, I am not worried because I know it will continue to go and grow for record growth (very much the first earnings call this year).
I also understand that stocks move in cycles and disasters (both financial and physical types). I previously wrote an article about this, which you can reference, but my main point is that it is normal when stocks start to go down and back up. Disasters will definitely happen each year and they will be augmented with "prophets" who will "predict the worst market drop ever" or herald "impending market crashes". But I know the bull market will return. It is only a matter of waiting and growing, but with an eye on the company. For example, can DBS fail? Well, low chance but it is not impossible. What I mean is to know your company well, understand how it is doing and if you need to bail because the company is in trouble (think $Credit Suisse Group AG(CS)$
Otherwise, when you invest, don't only spend money. You must be ready to spend time to wait, wait, wait and for the company to grow, grow, grow.
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History repeats itself and always WILL. The reason for this is simple: "Human nature never changes so each generation makes the SAME mistakes because their human nature tells them to do the SAME THINGS as previous generations".
This company is WORTH something. Its assets are greater than its liabilities. It has shareholder equity. This is why the Saudi National Bank purchased 9.9%, the Saudi family 5%, the Kuwaitis 5% and BlackRock 5%.
Question to the long term investors here.Do you think CS stock price is going to be in the range of 7-10 CHF in next 5 years?
Let's see how many counts are in favour of it.
Amongst the four divisions of CS Group (Retail, Private Banking, corporate and investment bank), the Swiss Retail has been consistently profitable since 2018, earning between CHF 1.5 Billion and CHF 2.0 Billion every year. It generated more than a quarter of Credit Suisse’s revenue in 2022 and stayed profitable even as the wealth-management and investment-bank units saw losses. It has also remained relatively insulated from the torrent of executive departures at the group level.
Going forward, shorting the UBS stock seems long overdue; at US$ 21 is the good spot to short UBS stock; after the Credit Suisse disaster, Suisse authority put the last nail in the coffin of the Suisse Banking sector; Suisse Banks will never recover their lost reputation, hence, shorting the UBS certainly presents a good opportunity now.
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