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2021-06-10

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10 times the big bull stock was reported by the well-known big V, and the 400 billion liquor upstart was also questioned

A股“不死鸟”的不利消息这两天突然多了起来！ 6月9日晚间，知名大V、因茅台而出名的投资人董宝珍突然在其微博上宣布：我就舍得酒业股票可能被非法操纵向证监会进行举报，并请求就此进行调查。他还提出了该股可

10 times the big bull stock was reported by the well-known big V, and the 400 billion liquor upstart was also questioned

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":183968563,"tweetId":"183968563","gmtCreate":1623301071852,"gmtModify":1704200425501,"author":{"id":3550302189388297,"idStr":"3550302189388297","authorId":3550302189388297,"authorIdStr":"3550302189388297","name":"铭铭1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ffa87210074c52890dd2aa1511b1087","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":2,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Taiduole</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Taiduole</body></html>","text":"Taiduole","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183968563","repostId":1106333968,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106333968","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"致力于提供最及时的财经资讯，最专业的解读分析，覆盖宏观经济、金融机构、A股市场、上市公司、投资理财等财经领域。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"券商中国","id":"9","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f"},"pubTimestamp":1623300170,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1106333968?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-10 12:42","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"10 times the big bull stock was reported by the well-known big V, and the 400 billion liquor upstart was also questioned","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106333968","media":"券商中国","summary":"A股“不死鸟”的不利消息这两天突然多了起来！\n6月9日晚间，知名大V、因茅台而出名的投资人董宝珍突然在其微博上宣布：我就舍得酒业股票可能被非法操纵向证监会进行举报，并请求就此进行调查。他还提出了该股可","content":"The bad news of A-share \"undead birds\" has suddenly increased in the past two days!On the evening of June 9th, Dong Baozhen, a well-known big V and an investor famous for Maotai, suddenly announced on his Weibo: I am willing to report to the CSRC that the stock of Shede Liquor Industry may be illegally manipulated, and requested an investigation. He also put forward the logical rationale and request for investigation that the unit may have been illegally manipulated.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c193643c3b30233851fcbf8432f623fb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"991\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Today, Shede Wine Industry said that the company has paid attention to the report by Dong Baozhen and is currently learning more about it. Whether the company asked Dong Baozhen himself to know the situation, Shede Wine Industry did not disclose it. On the same day, Dong Baozhen said: \"At present, except for friends in the media who actively contact me quickly, no other subject has contacted me.\"Regarding the report of Shede Liquor Industry's suspected stock price manipulation, Dong Baozhen revealed to Shell Finance that there is sufficient evidence that Shede's stock price may be manipulated. Dong Baozhen said that complete and rigorous evidence was provided in the tip-off letter, which proved that it was necessary for Shede Liquor Industry to investigate whether its share price was illegally manipulated. However, many people mistakenly thought that the evidence was insufficient because there was no physical evidence in the tip-off letter. For this reason, I once again pointed out that my tip-off letter provided logically correct probative force even exceeded the physical evidence in the absence of physical evidence, and my logical evidence was extremely sufficient and comprehensive.Not long ago, he also questioned the channels of Shanxi Fenjiu, which has a market value of more than 400 billion. He published two Weibo posts involving Shanxi Fenjiu, one of which was accompanied by a video, and the other was accompanied by a manuscript entitled \"Doubtful Cloud of Shanxi Fenjiu Channel: Dong Baozhen's Suzhou Investigation of Two of the Three Fenjiu Specialty Stores Have Been Transferred\". He believes that the sales of Shanxi Fenjiu in these areas are not as good as imagined.In the last two trading days, liquor stocks, known as the \"immortal bird\" of A-shares, have continued to adjust. However, some stocks rebounded strongly on Wednesday, but Shede Liquor Industry, which has risen nearly tenfold in the past year, still fell by more than 5% to close; At the close of trading at noon today, Shede Liquor Industry fell more than 7%. Dong Baozhen suddenly pointed to these two liquor stocks with very strong gains. How big will the impact be? When will the adjustment of liquor stocks end?<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fe3f41226bc6a174046ade1ed73760e\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\">Dong Baozhen's report is willing to be manipulatedOn the evening of June 9th, Dong Baozhen, a well-known big V, released a Weibo. He reported the \"Shede Wine Industry\", which has risen nearly tenfold in the past year and still has 53,000 investors in the first quarter report. He said: \"I am willing to report to the China Securities Regulatory Commission that the shares of the wine industry may be illegally manipulated.\"According to the report letter, on May 21, the China Securities Regulatory Commission released information: the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the public security organs jointly seized the crime of packaging manipulation in Jiamei and arrested the criminals. According to a further report by CCTV Finance on May 21st, the change of Jiamei Packaging's stock price attracted the attention of the Economic Investigation Corps of Liaoning Provincial Public Security Department. Since then, the inspection department of China Securities Regulatory Commission has launched a law enforcement cooperation mechanism with public security organs to coordinate clue analysis and investigation and evidence collection.Dong Baozhen said that according to CCTV's half-hour economic report, the reason why the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the public security organs launched the investigation was that the regulatory agency found that the trend of Jiamei Packaging was abnormal. On September 9, 2020, the stock price staged a \"sky and floor\" in just a few minutes, and then plummeted all the way, and before that, the stock price almost doubled rapidly!The letter proposed that please pay special attention to the fact that this crime of stock price manipulation was filed. There was no whistleblower or whistleblower. Instead, the regulatory authorities started to file a case for investigation based on the abnormal characteristics of stock price trends and suspected that there was a crime of manipulation. This is a common practice in global financial supervision! There is a trend of manipulation. Once this trend occurs, it may be manipulation. It is precisely because Jiamei Packaging has stepped out of the manipulation trend that the public security organs launched an investigation!Dong Baozhen said that the general law is: \"If there is an operation crime in the stock price of the capital market, its trend will have obvious characteristics. The trend of Jiamei Packaging is the inevitable trend left by widespread manipulation crime, and manipulation crime is generally the same in the stock price trend! Therefore, you can observe the trend of stock price to find manipulation crime. Logically, the vast majority of manipulation crimes will leave a trend similar to Jiamei packaging, and there may often be operational crimes when going out of the trend of Jiamei packaging. Stocks with similar trends to Jiamei Packaging in the capital market may have manipulation crimes! \"Shanxi Fenjiu was also questioned by himShortly after the above-mentioned Weibo was released, Dong Baozhen also released his research results on \"the operating status of Fenjiu distributors in Suzhou City\", accompanied by a research video.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b5838ced89176ae123090500190020f\" tg-width=\"526\" tg-height=\"673\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">He said that recently, he and his colleagues went to see several liquor specialty stores, including Fenjiu. When he was on a business trip in Suzhou, he searched Baidu map for Fenjiu specialty stores and flagship stores, and finally found three stores in Suzhou city. One of the specialty stores has been closed, and the address has become a pharmacy. The address of this closed pharmacy is No.6-110 Dengwei Road, Huqiu District, Suzhou. Then, I rushed to a flagship store of Shanxi Fenjiu in Suzhou. The map address of this flagship store is No. 1156 Xinghu Street, Suzhou Industrial Park. This flagship store has been unable to operate after two years of operation and was forced to close down and transfer to a new takeover, who operated other alcohol. In the inner city of Suzhou (excluding the peripheral urban areas such as Zhangjiagang), two of the stores of Fenjiu distributors surveyed were closed and one was transferred, and these are the only stores of Fensa in the inner city of Suzhou shown on the map.In addition, Dong Baozhen found in a survey of the Fenjiu flagship store in Hangzhou that its sales volume has not increased in the past three years, and this year has declined by 30% compared with last year, due to the price increase of Fenjiu. \"I just came out of the flagship store of Fenjiu on Qingchun Road in Hangzhou. The boss reported that the business was very bad. This year, it declined by 30% compared with last year. The reason for the decline was the price increase of Fenjiu. The boss has been mainly engaged in retail sales for 19 years, and the sales volume has not increased in the past three years. Before the Spring Festival, there are more discounts for dealers to purchase goods, and the purchase discounts after the Spring Festival have been cancelled. The overall sales in the off-season are much worse than last year, and there is no purchase for the time being. \"He said that the general distributor in Hangzhou is not clear about channel sales and terminal sales. \"Now we come to Hangzhou, and the general distribution of Fenjiu provides the following information. The whole Fenjiu in Hangzhou goes out from him, and the overall sales growth is not particularly high. We asked him how the terminal sales were, and he said he didn't know. He was only responsible for sending goods to the channel, and he didn't know the channel sales. He suggested that we ask the terminal store.What is the truth?It can be said that Dong Baozhen is famous for Moutai. His private equity fund has been heavily invested in Kweichow Moutai for a long time. He once ran naked because of Moutai, and made a fortune because of Moutai. At the beginning of 2018, he published a public article \"Dong Baozhen: Bearish on bank stocks is a big mistake\", saying that when people thought that Maotai would fall into a long-term recession due to anti-corruption, you found that the market participants' views were wrong through investigation and independent thinking, and quickly went against it to capture such a once-in-a-lifetime investment opportunity. Dong Baozhen believes that it is a major epidemic mistake to be bearish on China and then bank stocks on a global scale. Bank stocks have been greatly mispriced, and the valuation repair of bank stocks will eventually come.So, does his sudden report and questioning of two liquor stocks mean that he is right again? Judging from the report of the Brokerage Research Institute, it seems that liquor is still relatively optimistic.CITIC Construction Investment said that the current demand for high-end wine is stable, with performance growth of around 20%, and a valuation of 50-55X in 21 years, which is relatively reasonable. Due to the high flexibility of performance, the valuation of the sub-high end is generally high. The valuation of Fenjiu, Shede, and Jiuguijiu in 21 years is above 80X, and the valuation of real estate wine Yanghe and Jinshiyuan is 40X, which is cost-effective in comparison. Focus on recommending high-end liquors Maotai, Wuliangye and Luzhou Old Cellar, as well as sub-high-end liquor targets with greater flexibility, Shanxi Fenjiu, Yanghe shares and Gujing Gongjiu, and pay attention to second-line targets with strong flexibility, Shuijingfang and Shede Liquor Industry.Huaan Securities believes that willing to grow the wine industry comes from the three logics of industry dividends, reform motivation, and old wine market. After Fosun settles in, it is expected to manage and empower Shede, and Shede is also expected to rely on Fosun's resources to accelerate the cultivation of consumers in the core circle; In addition, based on the industry background of the continuous and rapid expansion of China's old wine market, Shede Liquor Industry's 120,000 tons of old wine stored in jars has the advantages of scale and quality, and the company's old wine series products can form rapid growth.In addition, is the situation of Shanxi Fenjiu really as Dong Baozhen said? The conclusion of the brokerage is also different. According to the in-depth report of Zheshang Securities, the CAGR of Shanxi Fenjiu's sales revenue outside the province will reach 42.45% from 2016 to 2020, far exceeding the expansion speed in the province. At the same time, the revenue outside the province accounts for 56.1%. The company's nationalization strategy has achieved initial results, and there are two major highlights in the future development outside the province:First, the market around Shanxi: the overall market space of the Shanxi sector around Shanxi is about 180 billion yuan, and the market share of Fenjiu is less than 3%. With the upgrading of product structure led by Qinghuafen and the further sinking of channels, the upgrading of product structure promotes the release of performance, and the Shanxi sector around Shanxi There is still great development potential.The second is the southern market: the region south of the Yangtze River has a large market space and high consumer prices. Previously, the foundation of Fenjiu was relatively weak. As the southern market has become the company's next focus on building a market, and has proposed a three-year average growth rate of over 50%. In the future, the performance of markets outside the province may exceed expectations.At present, the biggest concern about liquor may not be the market, but the policy. Specifically, it is consumption tax. Zhongtai Securities said that the transfer of liquor consumption tax collection may trigger tremendous changes in the industry. If the tax is completely borne by consumers, the tax burden will increase significantly when consumers buy high-grade wine; If the terminal consumer price remains unchanged and the ex-factory price at the production end remains unchanged, the income of dealers will be significantly squeezed, especially the pressure of mid-to-high-end liquor dealers is greater; If the terminal consumer price remains unchanged, the winery will increase the revenue of the production side by canceling the distributors, especially the revenue of the high-end wine production side.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>10 times the big bull stock was reported by the well-known big V, and the 400 billion liquor upstart was also questioned</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n10 times the big bull stock was reported by the well-known big V, and the 400 billion liquor upstart was also questioned\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/9\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n券商中国 \n2021-06-10 12:42\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe bad news of A-share \"undead birds\" has suddenly increased in the past two days!On the evening of June 9th, Dong Baozhen, a well-known big V and an investor famous for Maotai, suddenly announced on his Weibo: I am willing to report to the CSRC that the stock of Shede Liquor Industry may be illegally manipulated, and requested an investigation. He also put forward the logical rationale and request for investigation that the unit may have been illegally manipulated.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c193643c3b30233851fcbf8432f623fb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"991\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Today, Shede Wine Industry said that the company has paid attention to the report by Dong Baozhen and is currently learning more about it. Whether the company asked Dong Baozhen himself to know the situation, Shede Wine Industry did not disclose it. On the same day, Dong Baozhen said: \"At present, except for friends in the media who actively contact me quickly, no other subject has contacted me.\"Regarding the report of Shede Liquor Industry's suspected stock price manipulation, Dong Baozhen revealed to Shell Finance that there is sufficient evidence that Shede's stock price may be manipulated. Dong Baozhen said that complete and rigorous evidence was provided in the tip-off letter, which proved that it was necessary for Shede Liquor Industry to investigate whether its share price was illegally manipulated. However, many people mistakenly thought that the evidence was insufficient because there was no physical evidence in the tip-off letter. For this reason, I once again pointed out that my tip-off letter provided logically correct probative force even exceeded the physical evidence in the absence of physical evidence, and my logical evidence was extremely sufficient and comprehensive.Not long ago, he also questioned the channels of Shanxi Fenjiu, which has a market value of more than 400 billion. He published two Weibo posts involving Shanxi Fenjiu, one of which was accompanied by a video, and the other was accompanied by a manuscript entitled \"Doubtful Cloud of Shanxi Fenjiu Channel: Dong Baozhen's Suzhou Investigation of Two of the Three Fenjiu Specialty Stores Have Been Transferred\". He believes that the sales of Shanxi Fenjiu in these areas are not as good as imagined.In the last two trading days, liquor stocks, known as the \"immortal bird\" of A-shares, have continued to adjust. However, some stocks rebounded strongly on Wednesday, but Shede Liquor Industry, which has risen nearly tenfold in the past year, still fell by more than 5% to close; At the close of trading at noon today, Shede Liquor Industry fell more than 7%. Dong Baozhen suddenly pointed to these two liquor stocks with very strong gains. How big will the impact be? When will the adjustment of liquor stocks end?<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fe3f41226bc6a174046ade1ed73760e\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\">Dong Baozhen's report is willing to be manipulatedOn the evening of June 9th, Dong Baozhen, a well-known big V, released a Weibo. He reported the \"Shede Wine Industry\", which has risen nearly tenfold in the past year and still has 53,000 investors in the first quarter report. He said: \"I am willing to report to the China Securities Regulatory Commission that the shares of the wine industry may be illegally manipulated.\"According to the report letter, on May 21, the China Securities Regulatory Commission released information: the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the public security organs jointly seized the crime of packaging manipulation in Jiamei and arrested the criminals. According to a further report by CCTV Finance on May 21st, the change of Jiamei Packaging's stock price attracted the attention of the Economic Investigation Corps of Liaoning Provincial Public Security Department. Since then, the inspection department of China Securities Regulatory Commission has launched a law enforcement cooperation mechanism with public security organs to coordinate clue analysis and investigation and evidence collection.Dong Baozhen said that according to CCTV's half-hour economic report, the reason why the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the public security organs launched the investigation was that the regulatory agency found that the trend of Jiamei Packaging was abnormal. On September 9, 2020, the stock price staged a \"sky and floor\" in just a few minutes, and then plummeted all the way, and before that, the stock price almost doubled rapidly!The letter proposed that please pay special attention to the fact that this crime of stock price manipulation was filed. There was no whistleblower or whistleblower. Instead, the regulatory authorities started to file a case for investigation based on the abnormal characteristics of stock price trends and suspected that there was a crime of manipulation. This is a common practice in global financial supervision! There is a trend of manipulation. Once this trend occurs, it may be manipulation. It is precisely because Jiamei Packaging has stepped out of the manipulation trend that the public security organs launched an investigation!Dong Baozhen said that the general law is: \"If there is an operation crime in the stock price of the capital market, its trend will have obvious characteristics. The trend of Jiamei Packaging is the inevitable trend left by widespread manipulation crime, and manipulation crime is generally the same in the stock price trend! Therefore, you can observe the trend of stock price to find manipulation crime. Logically, the vast majority of manipulation crimes will leave a trend similar to Jiamei packaging, and there may often be operational crimes when going out of the trend of Jiamei packaging. Stocks with similar trends to Jiamei Packaging in the capital market may have manipulation crimes! \"Shanxi Fenjiu was also questioned by himShortly after the above-mentioned Weibo was released, Dong Baozhen also released his research results on \"the operating status of Fenjiu distributors in Suzhou City\", accompanied by a research video.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b5838ced89176ae123090500190020f\" tg-width=\"526\" tg-height=\"673\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">He said that recently, he and his colleagues went to see several liquor specialty stores, including Fenjiu. When he was on a business trip in Suzhou, he searched Baidu map for Fenjiu specialty stores and flagship stores, and finally found three stores in Suzhou city. One of the specialty stores has been closed, and the address has become a pharmacy. The address of this closed pharmacy is No.6-110 Dengwei Road, Huqiu District, Suzhou. Then, I rushed to a flagship store of Shanxi Fenjiu in Suzhou. The map address of this flagship store is No. 1156 Xinghu Street, Suzhou Industrial Park. This flagship store has been unable to operate after two years of operation and was forced to close down and transfer to a new takeover, who operated other alcohol. In the inner city of Suzhou (excluding the peripheral urban areas such as Zhangjiagang), two of the stores of Fenjiu distributors surveyed were closed and one was transferred, and these are the only stores of Fensa in the inner city of Suzhou shown on the map.In addition, Dong Baozhen found in a survey of the Fenjiu flagship store in Hangzhou that its sales volume has not increased in the past three years, and this year has declined by 30% compared with last year, due to the price increase of Fenjiu. \"I just came out of the flagship store of Fenjiu on Qingchun Road in Hangzhou. The boss reported that the business was very bad. This year, it declined by 30% compared with last year. The reason for the decline was the price increase of Fenjiu. The boss has been mainly engaged in retail sales for 19 years, and the sales volume has not increased in the past three years. Before the Spring Festival, there are more discounts for dealers to purchase goods, and the purchase discounts after the Spring Festival have been cancelled. The overall sales in the off-season are much worse than last year, and there is no purchase for the time being. \"He said that the general distributor in Hangzhou is not clear about channel sales and terminal sales. \"Now we come to Hangzhou, and the general distribution of Fenjiu provides the following information. The whole Fenjiu in Hangzhou goes out from him, and the overall sales growth is not particularly high. We asked him how the terminal sales were, and he said he didn't know. He was only responsible for sending goods to the channel, and he didn't know the channel sales. He suggested that we ask the terminal store.What is the truth?It can be said that Dong Baozhen is famous for Moutai. His private equity fund has been heavily invested in Kweichow Moutai for a long time. He once ran naked because of Moutai, and made a fortune because of Moutai. At the beginning of 2018, he published a public article \"Dong Baozhen: Bearish on bank stocks is a big mistake\", saying that when people thought that Maotai would fall into a long-term recession due to anti-corruption, you found that the market participants' views were wrong through investigation and independent thinking, and quickly went against it to capture such a once-in-a-lifetime investment opportunity. Dong Baozhen believes that it is a major epidemic mistake to be bearish on China and then bank stocks on a global scale. Bank stocks have been greatly mispriced, and the valuation repair of bank stocks will eventually come.So, does his sudden report and questioning of two liquor stocks mean that he is right again? Judging from the report of the Brokerage Research Institute, it seems that liquor is still relatively optimistic.CITIC Construction Investment said that the current demand for high-end wine is stable, with performance growth of around 20%, and a valuation of 50-55X in 21 years, which is relatively reasonable. Due to the high flexibility of performance, the valuation of the sub-high end is generally high. The valuation of Fenjiu, Shede, and Jiuguijiu in 21 years is above 80X, and the valuation of real estate wine Yanghe and Jinshiyuan is 40X, which is cost-effective in comparison. Focus on recommending high-end liquors Maotai, Wuliangye and Luzhou Old Cellar, as well as sub-high-end liquor targets with greater flexibility, Shanxi Fenjiu, Yanghe shares and Gujing Gongjiu, and pay attention to second-line targets with strong flexibility, Shuijingfang and Shede Liquor Industry.Huaan Securities believes that willing to grow the wine industry comes from the three logics of industry dividends, reform motivation, and old wine market. After Fosun settles in, it is expected to manage and empower Shede, and Shede is also expected to rely on Fosun's resources to accelerate the cultivation of consumers in the core circle; In addition, based on the industry background of the continuous and rapid expansion of China's old wine market, Shede Liquor Industry's 120,000 tons of old wine stored in jars has the advantages of scale and quality, and the company's old wine series products can form rapid growth.In addition, is the situation of Shanxi Fenjiu really as Dong Baozhen said? The conclusion of the brokerage is also different. According to the in-depth report of Zheshang Securities, the CAGR of Shanxi Fenjiu's sales revenue outside the province will reach 42.45% from 2016 to 2020, far exceeding the expansion speed in the province. At the same time, the revenue outside the province accounts for 56.1%. The company's nationalization strategy has achieved initial results, and there are two major highlights in the future development outside the province:First, the market around Shanxi: the overall market space of the Shanxi sector around Shanxi is about 180 billion yuan, and the market share of Fenjiu is less than 3%. With the upgrading of product structure led by Qinghuafen and the further sinking of channels, the upgrading of product structure promotes the release of performance, and the Shanxi sector around Shanxi There is still great development potential.The second is the southern market: the region south of the Yangtze River has a large market space and high consumer prices. Previously, the foundation of Fenjiu was relatively weak. As the southern market has become the company's next focus on building a market, and has proposed a three-year average growth rate of over 50%. In the future, the performance of markets outside the province may exceed expectations.At present, the biggest concern about liquor may not be the market, but the policy. Specifically, it is consumption tax. Zhongtai Securities said that the transfer of liquor consumption tax collection may trigger tremendous changes in the industry. If the tax is completely borne by consumers, the tax burden will increase significantly when consumers buy high-grade wine; If the terminal consumer price remains unchanged and the ex-factory price at the production end remains unchanged, the income of dealers will be significantly squeezed, especially the pressure of mid-to-high-end liquor dealers is greater; If the terminal consumer price remains unchanged, the winery will increase the revenue of the production side by canceling the distributors, especially the revenue of the high-end wine production side.\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec5d40eead843a4c0263461b286f92a0","relate_stocks":{"600702":"舍得酒业","600809":"山西汾酒"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106333968","content_text":"A股“不死鸟”的不利消息这两天突然多了起来！\n6月9日晚间，知名大V、因茅台而出名的投资人董宝珍突然在其微博上宣布：我就舍得酒业股票可能被非法操纵向证监会进行举报，并请求就此进行调查。他还提出了该股可能被非法操纵的逻辑依据和调查请求。\n\n今日，舍得酒业方面表示，关于被董宝珍举报一事公司已经关注到，目前正在进一步了解中。对于公司是否找董宝珍本人了解情况，舍得酒业方面未透露。同日，董宝珍表示：“目前除了媒体界的朋友积极主动快速联系我，没有其他主体联系我。”\n关于举报舍得酒业涉嫌股价操纵一事，董宝珍向贝壳财经透露：舍得股价可能被操纵的证据充足。董宝珍称，在举报信中提供了完整严密的证据，证明舍得酒业已经有必要就其股价是否有人为非法操纵进行调查，但是很多人因为举报信中没有一个实物证据，就误以为证据不充足，为此我再一次指出我的举报信，在没有实物证据的情况下，所提供的逻辑正确证明力甚至超过了实物证据，我的逻辑证据是极端充足全面。\n而就在此前不久，他还对市值超过4000亿的山西汾酒的渠道进行了质疑。他发布了涉及山西汾酒的两条微博，其中一条附有视频，另一条附有一篇题为《山西汾酒渠道疑云：董宝珍苏州调研汾酒专卖店 三家店有两家已转让》的稿件。他认为，山西汾酒在这些地区销售并没有想象的好。\n最近两个交易日，有着A股“不死鸟”之称的白酒股出现了持续调整，但周三部分股票反弹力度较大，但在过去一年上涨近十倍的舍得酒业仍以下跌超5%收报；今日午间收盘，舍得酒业大跌超7%。董宝珍突然指向这两只涨势非常强势的白酒股，影响会有多大？白酒股的调整何时能够结束？\n\n董宝珍举报舍得被操纵\n6月9日晚间，知名大V董宝珍发布微博，他对过去一年涨了将近十倍的股票，一季报仍有5.3万投资者的“舍得酒业”进行了举报。他说：“我就舍得酒业股票可能被非法操纵向证监会进行举报。”\n举报函称，5月21日证监会发布信息：证监会与公安机关联合行动查获嘉美包装操纵犯罪，并将犯罪分子抓捕。据央视财经5月21日进一步报道，嘉美包装股价的异动引起了辽宁省公安厅经侦总队的注意，此后，证监会稽查部门启动与公安机关的执法协作机制，协同开展线索分析和调查取证。\n董宝珍表示，根据央视经济半小时报道，使得证监会和公安机关启动调查的原因，是因为监管机构发现嘉美包装走势不正常，2020年9月9日，短短几分钟股价就上演“天地板”，之后一路暴跌，而在此前股价几乎快速翻倍！\n举办函提出，请特别注意这起操纵股价犯罪得以被立案并没有举报者和报案人，而是监管层根据股价走势特征不正常怀疑有操纵犯罪开始立案侦查，这是全球金融监管的通用做法！有一种走势是操纵走势，一旦出现这种走势就有可能是操纵，嘉美包装正是因为走出了操纵走势，公安机关启动调查！\n董宝珍表示，普遍的规律是：“资本市场的股价如果存在操作犯罪，其走势会有明显特征，嘉美包装的走势正是普遍的操纵犯罪行为留下的必然走势，操纵犯罪在股价走势上一般大体是一样的！因此可以观察股价的走势发现操纵犯罪。在逻辑上操纵犯罪中绝大多数会留下类似嘉美包装走势，走出类嘉美包装走势往往可能存在操作犯罪。资本市场上和嘉美包装走势类似的股票都可能存在操纵犯罪！”\n山西汾酒也被他质疑\n就在上述微博发布不久，董宝珍还发布了他对“汾酒在苏州市区经销商经营状况”的调研结果，并配有调研视频。\n\n他说，近期与同事去看了几家白酒包括汾酒的专卖店，在苏州出差时，从百度地图上搜索汾酒专卖店和旗舰店，最后在苏州城区里一共找到三家，其中一家专卖店已经关张大吉人去楼空，地址上已经变成了一家药店，这家已经关张变成药店的地址是苏州市虎丘区邓尉路6-110号。接着，又赶到山西汾酒在苏州的一家旗舰店，这家旗舰店的地图地址是苏州工业园区星湖街1156号，这家旗舰店已经在经营两年后无法经营，被迫关张转让给了新的接盘者，接盘者经营了其他酒类。在苏州的内城区（不包括张家港这些外围的市区）所调研的汾酒经销商专卖店，两家关张一家转让，而地图上所展现的汾洒在苏州内部城区的专卖店也就这几家。\n此外，董宝珍在杭州的汾酒旗舰店调研中则发现，其过去三年销量没什么增长，今年比去年衰退30%，原因是汾酒涨价。“刚从杭州庆春路上的汾酒旗舰店出来，老板反馈生意非常不好，今年比去年衰退了30%，衰退原因是汾酒涨价。老板19年做汾酒以零售为主，过去三年销量没有什么增长。汾酒春节前给经销商进货有较多的优惠，春节后进货优惠已经取消了。淡季整体销售比去年差很多，暂时也没进货”。\n他表示，杭州总经销商对渠道动销和终端销售情况并不清楚，“现在我们来到杭州，汾酒的总经销提供如下信息，整个杭州的汾洒都是从他这儿出去的，整体销售增长不特别高。我们问他终端销售怎么样，他说他不知道，他只负责向渠道派货，渠道动销他不清楚，建议我们问终端门店，终端卖给消费者没有，目前不清楚”。\n真相究竟如何？\n可以说，董宝珍因为茅台而出名，他私募基金就曾长期重仓贵州茅台，曾因茅台而裸奔，也因茅台而发财。在2018年年初，他曾发表过公开文章《董宝珍：看空银行股是一个大错误》，称当人们都认为茅台因反腐将陷入长期衰退时，你通过调查研究和独立思考，发现市场参与者的看法是错误的，迅速反其道行之捕捉到这样一个千载难逢的投资机会。董宝珍认为，在全球范围内看空中国进而看空银行股是重大的流行性错误，银行股被大幅错误定价，银行股的估值修复终将到来。\n那么，他这次突然举报和质疑两只白酒股，是否意味着他又对了呢？从券商研究所的报告来看，对于白酒似乎仍较为看好。\n中信建投表示，当前高端酒需求稳健，业绩增长在20%左右，21年估值50-55X，较为合理。次高端由于业绩弹性大，估值普遍偏高，汾酒、舍得、酒鬼酒21年估值在80X以上，地产酒洋河、今世缘估值在40X，相比之下具备一定性价比。重点推荐高端酒茅台、五粮液和泸州老窖，以及弹性较大的次高端白酒标的山西汾酒、洋河股份以及古井贡酒，关注强弹性的二线标的，水井坊、舍得酒业。\n华安证券认为，舍得酒业成长性，来自于行业红利、改革动力、及老酒市场三大逻辑。复星入驻后，有望对舍得进行管理赋能，舍得亦有望依托复星系资源加速核心圈层消费者培育；此外基于中国老酒市场规模持续快速扩容的行业大背景，舍得酒业12万吨坛储老酒具备规模与品质优势，公司老酒系列产品形成快速增长可期。\n另外，山西汾酒的情况是否真如董宝珍说的那样？券商的结论也不一样。据浙商证券的深度报告，2016-2020年山西汾酒的省外销售收入CAGR 将达42.45%，远超省内扩张速度，同时省外收入占比达 56.1%，公司的全国化战略已初现成效，未来省外开拓有两大看点：\n一是环山西市场：环山西板块整体市场空间约 1800 亿元，汾酒市占率不足 3%，随着青花汾主导的产品结构升级、渠道进一步下沉，产品结构升级促进业绩释放，环山西板块仍有较大发展潜力。\n二是南方市场：长江以南地区市场空间大、消费价位高，此前汾酒基础较为薄弱，随着南方市场成为公司下一重点打造市场，并提出三年平均增速超50%的目标，未来省外市场表现或超预期。\n目前，对白酒最大的担忧可能并不是市场，而是政策。具体而言就是消费税。中泰证券表示，白酒消费税征收环节的转移，或将引发行业的巨大变化。若税完全由消费者承担，则消费者购买高档酒，会带来税负增加明显；若保持终端消费价格不变，而生产端出厂价格不变的情况下，经销商收入将被挤压明显，尤其是中高档白酒经销商压力更大；若保持终端消费价格不变，酒厂通过取消经销商的方式，将带来生产端收入的增加，尤其是高档酒生产端的收入增加明显。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"600702":0.9,"600809":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1520,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":8,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}