The thesis for buying into regional bank stocks
Regional Bank stocks have rallied quite substantially on 6 June due to firstly, many executives of these regional bank stocks are loading onto them. According to reuters, a total of 778 executives and officers bought into their respective bank stocks in Q2 which is more than in Q1 when SVB collapse which only had 524, both times were attempts to boost investors and consumer's confidence. I believe that this buy in is not just a shot in the dark by these executives but rather they see an opportinity to increase their shareholding and decision making power alongside boosting consumer confidence and their own wealth. A secondreason for this rise is because the market is currently pricing in a 80% chance of the FED not hiking rate this round or decreasing the interest rate by 25 basis points and if the market is right, these banks will benefit significantly as it will mean lower deposit cost ( deposit is their liability ) and many other reasons, ( high interest rates is what caused SVB to collasped ), hence, lower interest rate will ease the bank's struggle.
However, it is also worth to note that the market is extremely optimistic now and a U-turn could very well happen in the next few days as there are important economic data next week such as CPI which will be detremental for FOMC's decision, which is why i believe that the market will drop either on Friday or Monday as the fear or uncertainty sinks in. On the other news, there is also a proposal in congress a few weeks ago to increase the the capital requirement ratio by 20% which will negatively impact the bank's future profit. Alongside this, there is also fear that the US government will be printing out $1trillion worth of T-bills which will decrease the bond prices, making the banks even more illiquid.
In summary, i think that the regional bank stocks can be a buy for today and potentially tomorrow as the momentum is still there, but anything beyond tomorrow is very uncertain as i believe the fear of uncertainty will sink in right before FOMC and CPI data release and smart money might sell first.
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