To The Moon

The prices of cryptocurrencies usually mirror the price movements of high-growth tech stocks since both are highly responsive to changes in interest rates. Consequently, the substantial rate increases in 2022 significantly impacted both asset categories, causing them to falter as liquidity decreased. Many investors sold off these risky assets and sought refuge in safer Treasury bills, which not only provided higher interest rates but also guaranteed capital protection.

However, in the current year, individual cryptocurrencies and high-growth stocks have begun exhibiting more distinct and independent price movements. It appears that interest rates are no longer the primary driving force behind these movements, possibly due to the proximity to peak interest rates and the resulting stability. It seems that interest rates are no longer the key risk factor influencing these assets.

Certain high-growth stocks experienced better performance, particularly those that were in a stronger financial position and achieved positive cash flow or profitability. One notable example is Airbnb, which recorded its first full year net profit in 2022, resulting in a 50% year-to-date increase in its share price. The recovery of the travel industry also contributed to its success.

Additionally, some stocks benefited from the hype surrounding artificial intelligence (AI), driving their share prices higher. C3.ai is a prime illustration, with a staggering 253% year-to-date gain in its share price. Although it remains unprofitable and has experienced a slowdown in growth to just 5%, the significant increase can be attributed solely to its association with AI.

Despite the potential share price boost associated with AI, it is important to recognize that this factor alone may not suffice if the underlying business is severely underperforming. A notable example is LivePerson, a company specializing in AI-powered customer service software. Despite its AI association, LivePerson's share price has experienced a substantial decline of 58% year-to-date. This decline can be attributed to the company's projection of a significant sales decline for the current year.

On the other hand, Palantir had cause for celebration as it achieved profitability and positive cash flow. It also demonstrated an 18% growth in revenue compared to the previous year. The combination of these accomplishments, along with its association with AI, helped to propel Palantir's year-to-date return to an impressive 129%.

During the testimony of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell before the House Financial Services Committee yesterday, he emphasized the Fed's commitment to reducing inflation to 2% and suggested the possibility of one or two additional rate hikes.

Stock prices fell in general, with C3.ai and Palantir experiencing respective drops of 10% and 7%. In contrast, the cryptocurrency market witnessed a surge, with Bitcoin surging back to $30,000, marking a notable 5% gain in a single day. This serves as another example of certain segments of the market moving independently from one another.

Despite Powell's comments, the futures market for the fed fund rate remained unchanged, indicating expectations of one more 0.25% rate hike in July, with rates projected to stay within the range of 5.25% to 5.5% until the year's end. Consequently, the decline in stock prices was likely not solely due to the interest rate outlook but rather because stocks had experienced significant appreciation and a correction was deemed necessary. However, this does not imply that the bullish market moves have ended.

The surge in Bitcoin's price can be attributed to the recent news of Blackrock filing for an iShares Bitcoin Trust. This would mark the first-ever ETF that directly owns bitcoins, distinguishing it from the Greyscale Bitcoin Trust, which primarily invests in Bitcoin futures.

The filing was submitted six days ago when Bitcoin's price was approximately $25,000. Since then, it has steadily increased and reached $30,000 yesterday. This upward movement can be attributed to the growing awareness among market participants regarding this development, leading to a potential influx of investments into Bitcoin.

To clarify the situation, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has rejected several applications for Bitcoin-related ETFs in the past. While the market may speculate that Blackrock, being a major asset manager, could potentially overcome these hurdles, the outcome is uncertain.

There are reasons to exercise caution, especially considering the recent actions taken by the SEC against prominent cryptocurrency exchanges like Binance and Coinbase. The SEC has also classified numerous cryptocurrencies as securities, leading to a decline in their prices. It appears that the SEC is actively targeting the crypto industry.

If the ETF application is ultimately denied, there is a risk that the price of Bitcoin could drop back below $30,000 once again. Therefore, it may not be advisable to make investment decisions solely based on this particular news development.

Nevertheless, I currently hold bitcoins and it is evident that I would stand to gain financially if their prices were to rise rather than fall. I firmly believe in the long-term potential and increasing significance of Bitcoin. Therefore, regardless of short-term price fluctuations, I am content with holding onto my bitcoins rather than to react to the news of a Bitcoin ETF.

Regarding high-growth stocks, I hold the belief that there will be winners among them, and it is crucial for investors to carefully select the more fundamentally stronger ones. However, it is equally important to recognize that many of these stocks may eventually falter and lose their relevance, and investors should avoid them.

The hype surrounding AI remains prevalent, but we witnessed a sell-off in AI-related stocks yesterday. Personally, I maintain the perspective that AI stocks are still overhyped, and I wouldn't be surprised if their prices were to experience a drawdown in the future.

In summary, asset price movements are no longer solely influenced by interest rate expectations. We have entered a stage where specific segments of the market can move independently based on industry or sector developments, as well as the individual performances of companies. The market's movements have become less broad-based and more focused on specific factors. Consequently, investors need to embrace a more nuanced approach by understanding the unique drivers behind each asset class or company's performance.