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2023-06-23

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JPMorgan: If the Fed does not cut interest rates, U.S. stocks will be in trouble in the second half of this year

摩根大通首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic表示，随着美联储激进收紧货币政策的滞后影响赶上经济增长，美国股市将在今年下半年陷入困境。尽管美股今年迄今为止的反弹与Marko Kolanovi

JPMorgan: If the Fed does not cut interest rates, U.S. stocks will be in trouble in the second half of this year

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":190248855609608,"tweetId":"190248855609608","gmtCreate":1687473207431,"gmtModify":1687473210898,"author":{"id":3583111190875685,"idStr":"3583111190875685","authorId":3583111190875685,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"html":"<html><head></head><body><p>B</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>B</p></body></html>","text":"B","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/190248855609608","repostId":2345757673,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2345757673","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1687444562,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2345757673?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-06-22 22:36","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"JPMorgan: If the Fed does not cut interest rates, U.S. stocks will be in trouble in the second half of this year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2345757673","media":"智通财经","summary":"摩根大通首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic表示，随着美联储激进收紧货币政策的滞后影响赶上经济增长，美国股市将在今年下半年陷入困境。尽管美股今年迄今为止的反弹与Marko Kolanovi","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Chief global market strategist Marko Kolanovic said U.S. stocks will struggle in the second half of the year as the lagging impact of the Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary tightening catches up with economic growth.</p><p>Although the rebound in U.S. stocks so far this year is inconsistent with Marko Kolanovic's bearish forecast, he still reiterated his defensive view and warned that factors such as a deteriorating business environment and slowing consumer demand suggest that a recession is coming and may hinder U.S. stocks rebound this year.</p><p>Marko Kolanovic said in a note on Thursday: \"On the stock market front, the Fed has not preemptively shifted to easing policy, but hinted at two more rate hike by the end of the year. We expect U.S. stocks to face a more challenging macro backdrop in the second half of the year. While stocks are sharply revalued, consumer trends will soften.\" He warned that multiple expansions and weakening pricing power make the risk-reward of U.S. stocks unattractive. Another worrying factor, he added, is \"growing investor complacency\" ahead of a potential recession and \"in short, there is a high risk of another unknown risk resurfacing\".</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/465325619ef8760a38cb1ef975f06532\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\"/></p><p>Differences of views on Wall Street on the outlook for U.S. stocks are intensifying. In addition to Marko Kolanovic, well-known bears on Wall Street,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Strategist Michael Wilson insisted on his bearish view on the U.S. stock market and further emphasized the view that the corporate earnings recession will continue in a recent report. Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett, the most accurate analyst on Wall Street since last year, also insisted on being bearish on U.S. stocks. He believes that the logic of the rise in U.S. stocks is untenable, and the recent \"fear of an economic recession in the first quarter\" is turning into \"greed for Goldilocks in the second quarter.\"</p><p>However,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin is optimistic about the future trend of U.S. stocks. David Kostin said this recent rally in the S&P 500 is expected to expand beyond technology stocks, as \"the market will conduct a broader revaluation of technology stocks after the previous sharp gains have narrowed significantly.\" Regarding the logic that U.S. stocks will continue to rise in the future, David Kostin gave two logical supports. In addition to the strong upward momentum brought to U.S. stocks by the shrinking probability of economic recession, another reason is that the comprehensive popularization of AI provides important support for corporate profit growth.</p><p>As one of the most pessimistic analysts on Wall Street, Savita Subramanian, chief strategist of Bank of America, also changed his previous bearish statement on U.S. stocks, saying that the bear market that plagued U.S. stocks has officially ended, and there is still room for a continued rebound in the future. Savita Subramanian's analysis shows that data from the 1950s shows that 92% of the time, the S&P 500 has continued its upward momentum in 12 months after achieving a more than 20% rebound.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JPMorgan: If the Fed does not cut interest rates, U.S. stocks will be in trouble in the second half of this year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJPMorgan: If the Fed does not cut interest rates, U.S. stocks will be in trouble in the second half of this year\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-06-22 22:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Chief global market strategist Marko Kolanovic said U.S. stocks will struggle in the second half of the year as the lagging impact of the Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary tightening catches up with economic growth.</p><p>Although the rebound in U.S. stocks so far this year is inconsistent with Marko Kolanovic's bearish forecast, he still reiterated his defensive view and warned that factors such as a deteriorating business environment and slowing consumer demand suggest that a recession is coming and may hinder U.S. stocks rebound this year.</p><p>Marko Kolanovic said in a note on Thursday: \"On the stock market front, the Fed has not preemptively shifted to easing policy, but hinted at two more rate hike by the end of the year. We expect U.S. stocks to face a more challenging macro backdrop in the second half of the year. While stocks are sharply revalued, consumer trends will soften.\" He warned that multiple expansions and weakening pricing power make the risk-reward of U.S. stocks unattractive. Another worrying factor, he added, is \"growing investor complacency\" ahead of a potential recession and \"in short, there is a high risk of another unknown risk resurfacing\".</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/465325619ef8760a38cb1ef975f06532\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\"/></p><p>Differences of views on Wall Street on the outlook for U.S. stocks are intensifying. In addition to Marko Kolanovic, well-known bears on Wall Street,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Strategist Michael Wilson insisted on his bearish view on the U.S. stock market and further emphasized the view that the corporate earnings recession will continue in a recent report. Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett, the most accurate analyst on Wall Street since last year, also insisted on being bearish on U.S. stocks. He believes that the logic of the rise in U.S. stocks is untenable, and the recent \"fear of an economic recession in the first quarter\" is turning into \"greed for Goldilocks in the second quarter.\"</p><p>However,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin is optimistic about the future trend of U.S. stocks. David Kostin said this recent rally in the S&P 500 is expected to expand beyond technology stocks, as \"the market will conduct a broader revaluation of technology stocks after the previous sharp gains have narrowed significantly.\" Regarding the logic that U.S. stocks will continue to rise in the future, David Kostin gave two logical supports. In addition to the strong upward momentum brought to U.S. stocks by the shrinking probability of economic recession, another reason is that the comprehensive popularization of AI provides important support for corporate profit growth.</p><p>As one of the most pessimistic analysts on Wall Street, Savita Subramanian, chief strategist of Bank of America, also changed his previous bearish statement on U.S. stocks, saying that the bear market that plagued U.S. stocks has officially ended, and there is still room for a continued rebound in the future. Savita Subramanian's analysis shows that data from the 1950s shows that 92% of the time, the S&P 500 has continued its upward momentum in 12 months after achieving a more than 20% rebound.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/949520.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","JPM":"摩根大通","LU0310799852.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Equity Income A MDIS SGD","LU1244550221.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET  INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) INC (M)","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","LU0211328371.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (MDIS) (USD)   INC","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","BK4566":"资本集团","LU1261432733.SGD":"Fidelity World A-ACC-SGD","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","LU1244550577.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Global Multi-Asset Income A (Mdis) SGD-H1","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","LU0211327993.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0320765489.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Mutual US Value A Acc SGD","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","LU1496350171.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED BALANCED \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","LU0211331839.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL GLB DISCOVERY \"A\" (USD) ACC","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","OEX":"标普100"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/949520.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2345757673","content_text":"摩根大通首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic表示，随着美联储激进收紧货币政策的滞后影响赶上经济增长，美国股市将在今年下半年陷入困境。尽管美股今年迄今为止的反弹与Marko Kolanovic的看跌预测并不一致，但他仍重申了其防御观点，并警告称，商业环境恶化和消费者需求放缓等因素表明，经济衰退即将到来，可能会阻碍美股今年的反弹。Marko Kolanovic周四在一份报告中表示：“在股市方面，美联储没有先发制人地转向宽松政策，而是暗示年底还会再加息两次。我们预计下半年美股将面临更具挑战性的宏观背景，在股市大幅重估的同时，消费趋势将趋软。”他警告称，多重扩张和定价能力的削弱使得美股的风险回报缺乏吸引力。他补充称，另一个令人担忧的因素是，在潜在的经济衰退到来之前，“投资者日益自满”，“简而言之，另一个未知的风险重新浮出水面的风险很高”。华尔街对美股前景的观点分歧正在加剧。除了Marko Kolanovic之外，华尔街知名空头、摩根士丹利策略师Michael Wilson坚持其看空美股大盘的观点，并在近期的报告中进一步强调企业盈利衰退将持续的观点。去年以来华尔街预测最准确的分析师、美银策略分析师Michael Hartnett也坚持看空美股。他认为，美股上涨的逻辑站不住，最近“对第一季度经济衰退的恐惧”正在转变为“对第二季度金发姑娘的贪婪”。不过，高盛首席美国股票策略师David Kostin则对美股未来走势持乐观态度。David Kostin表示，标普500指数近期的这一涨势预计将扩大到科技股以外，因为“之前大幅涨幅大幅收窄之后，市场将对科技股进行更广泛的估值重估”。对于美股后续仍将上涨的逻辑，David Kostin给出了两点逻辑支撑，除了经济衰退概率缩小给美股带来强劲的上涨动力之外，另一个理由是AI全面普及为企业利润增速提供重要支持。作为华尔街最悲观分析师之一的美国银行首席策略分析师Savita Subramanian也一改此前看空美股的说法，称困扰美股的熊市已经正式结束，未来还有继续反弹的空间。Savita Subramanian的分析显示，自1950年代以来的数据显示，在92%的时间里，标普500指数在实现超过20%的反弹后，在12个月内延续了上涨势头。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"JPM":1,"QLD":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SDS":0.6,".IXIC":1,"OEX":0.6,".SPX":0.6,".DJI":1,"DJX":0.6,"QID":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SPY":1,"SSO":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SH":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2620,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}