?????-To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community - To The Moon

1
Comment
Favorite

Leonloon
2021-05-10

?????

Fearing a repeat of 2013, investors are preparing for a tapering of bond purchases

美联储还没开始讨论缩减购债，一些投资者已经未雨绸缪了……　　随着美联储缩减量化宽松的步伐越来越近，对2013年的市场动荡记忆犹新的投资者们正努力减少投资组合的风险。2013年5月，时任美联储主席伯南克发出将开始缩减购债的信号，随后全球债券收益率飙升，风险资产大跌。　　在2月底小幅上涨后，衡量货币、国债和美国股市隐含波动性的指标有所回落，这表明投资者认为美联储不会立即宣布削减购债。

Fearing a repeat of 2013, investors are preparing for a tapering of bond purchases

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

1

Report

Comment

Top
Latest

empty

No comments yet

Most Discussed

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":190394933,"tweetId":"190394933","gmtCreate":1620595630322,"gmtModify":1704345152262,"author":{"id":3583115122148227,"idStr":"3583115122148227","authorId":3583115122148227,"authorIdStr":"3583115122148227","name":"Leonloon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bacb94fe8dfcaf1f09f4f2b85257233","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>?????</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>?????</p></body></html>","text":"?????","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/190394933","repostId":2133968366,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2133968366","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620524343,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2133968366?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-09 09:39","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Fearing a repeat of 2013, investors are preparing for a tapering of bond purchases","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2133968366","media":"金融界网站","summary":"美联储还没开始讨论缩减购债，一些投资者已经未雨绸缪了……　　随着美联储缩减量化宽松的步伐越来越近，对2013年的市场动荡记忆犹新的投资者们正努力减少投资组合的风险。2013年5月，时任美联储主席伯南克发出将开始缩减购债的信号，随后全球债券收益率飙升，风险资产大跌。　　在2月底小幅上涨后，衡量货币、国债和美国股市隐含波动性的指标有所回落，这表明投资者认为美联储不会立即宣布削减购债。","content":"<p>The Fed hasn't started discussing tapering bond purchases yet, and some investors are already preparing for a rainy day...</p><p>As the Fed's tapering of quantitative easing gets closer,<b>Investors with fresh memories of the market turmoil in 2013 are trying to reduce the risk of their portfolios.</b>In May 2013, then-Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke signaled that he would begin to reduce bond purchases. Subsequently, global bond yields soared and risky assets plummeted.<b>Some fund managers are worried that volatility will soar again, so they turn to longer-term high-yield bonds for safe havens; Other fund managers believe that tapering bond purchases will not cause panic and are betting on emerging market assets.</b></p><p>Economists expect the Fed to start cutting back on asset purchases before the end of the year. But Fed officials said it was too early to change monetary policy in response to COVID-19 pandemic. However, as the British and Canadian economies improved, monetary authorities in both countries began to slow down bond purchases. This makes investors think that the Federal Reserve may also reduce its quantitative easing when the economy is growing.</p><p>Pilar Gomez-Bravo, head of investment at MFS investment Management, said: \"The biggest threat to the market remains the volatility of bond yields. Risky asset valuations are high, and investors don't have much room for complacency.\"</p><p>Gomez-Bravo believes that junk bonds can also be invested as an asset compared to investment-grade bonds. Junk bonds aren't so vulnerable when yields reset. Investment-grade bonds have longer maturities and are more sensitive to interest rates.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JEF\">Jefferies</a>Sherif Hamid, a credit strategist at Jefferies Financial Group Inc., believes leveraged loans are even a better option.</p><p>Bloomberg data shows that investment-grade bonds are already under pressure,<b>The largest high-rated credit exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are experiencing their longest outflows since 2013.</b></p><p>In the market turmoil in 2013, the bond market was the first to be affected. In the month following Bernanke's speech, 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yields jumped 50 basis points. During the same period, the MSCI International Emerging Markets Index fell 14% and the Nasdaq 100 Index fell 4%. Currently, the tech-dominated index expects a P/E of 26 times, while the expected P/E at that time was only 15 times.</p><p>The world's largest asset manager<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>(BlackRock Inc.) Think that,<b>Much of the volatility in the bond market may have already occurred, and emerging market assets should do much better.</b></p><p>Ben Powell, chief Asia-Pacific investment strategist at BlackRock investment Institute, believes that there are no major events at present, and the yield may rise slightly.</p><p>The 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield has risen about 66 basis points this year and is currently around 1.53%. Since the beginning of this year, the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Treasury Bond Total Return Index has fallen by more than 3%.</p><p>BlackRock said factors such as an economic recovery, a massive stimulus package and the general stability of the US dollar were enough to insulate risky assets, including those in developing countries, from the impact of the Fed's tapering of quantitative easing.</p><p>Ben Powell said that the company increased its holdings of developed and emerging market stocks. In terms of fixed income, they actually increased their holdings of emerging market local currency bonds last week.</p><p>Measures of implied volatility in currencies, Treasury Bond and U.S. stocks pulled back after modest gains at the end of February, suggesting investors don't think the Federal Reserve will announce a reduction in bond purchases immediately. But trading activity in the options market suggests that the annual meeting of central bankers at Jackson Hole in August may be the beginning of discussions on tightening bond purchases.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.jrjimg.cn/2021/05/cms_20210508015903792.jpg\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Meanwhile, Win Thin, head of global foreign exchange strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co., said investors should carefully analyze the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which, based on past experience, will discuss tapering first. The minutes of the April meeting will be published on May 19.</p>","source":"jinrongjie_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fearing a repeat of 2013, investors are preparing for a tapering of bond purchases</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFearing a repeat of 2013, investors are preparing for a tapering of bond purchases\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金融界网站</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-09 09:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Fed hasn't started discussing tapering bond purchases yet, and some investors are already preparing for a rainy day...</p><p>As the Fed's tapering of quantitative easing gets closer,<b>Investors with fresh memories of the market turmoil in 2013 are trying to reduce the risk of their portfolios.</b>In May 2013, then-Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke signaled that he would begin to reduce bond purchases. Subsequently, global bond yields soared and risky assets plummeted.<b>Some fund managers are worried that volatility will soar again, so they turn to longer-term high-yield bonds for safe havens; Other fund managers believe that tapering bond purchases will not cause panic and are betting on emerging market assets.</b></p><p>Economists expect the Fed to start cutting back on asset purchases before the end of the year. But Fed officials said it was too early to change monetary policy in response to COVID-19 pandemic. However, as the British and Canadian economies improved, monetary authorities in both countries began to slow down bond purchases. This makes investors think that the Federal Reserve may also reduce its quantitative easing when the economy is growing.</p><p>Pilar Gomez-Bravo, head of investment at MFS investment Management, said: \"The biggest threat to the market remains the volatility of bond yields. Risky asset valuations are high, and investors don't have much room for complacency.\"</p><p>Gomez-Bravo believes that junk bonds can also be invested as an asset compared to investment-grade bonds. Junk bonds aren't so vulnerable when yields reset. Investment-grade bonds have longer maturities and are more sensitive to interest rates.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JEF\">Jefferies</a>Sherif Hamid, a credit strategist at Jefferies Financial Group Inc., believes leveraged loans are even a better option.</p><p>Bloomberg data shows that investment-grade bonds are already under pressure,<b>The largest high-rated credit exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are experiencing their longest outflows since 2013.</b></p><p>In the market turmoil in 2013, the bond market was the first to be affected. In the month following Bernanke's speech, 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yields jumped 50 basis points. During the same period, the MSCI International Emerging Markets Index fell 14% and the Nasdaq 100 Index fell 4%. Currently, the tech-dominated index expects a P/E of 26 times, while the expected P/E at that time was only 15 times.</p><p>The world's largest asset manager<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>(BlackRock Inc.) Think that,<b>Much of the volatility in the bond market may have already occurred, and emerging market assets should do much better.</b></p><p>Ben Powell, chief Asia-Pacific investment strategist at BlackRock investment Institute, believes that there are no major events at present, and the yield may rise slightly.</p><p>The 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield has risen about 66 basis points this year and is currently around 1.53%. Since the beginning of this year, the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Treasury Bond Total Return Index has fallen by more than 3%.</p><p>BlackRock said factors such as an economic recovery, a massive stimulus package and the general stability of the US dollar were enough to insulate risky assets, including those in developing countries, from the impact of the Fed's tapering of quantitative easing.</p><p>Ben Powell said that the company increased its holdings of developed and emerging market stocks. In terms of fixed income, they actually increased their holdings of emerging market local currency bonds last week.</p><p>Measures of implied volatility in currencies, Treasury Bond and U.S. stocks pulled back after modest gains at the end of February, suggesting investors don't think the Federal Reserve will announce a reduction in bond purchases immediately. But trading activity in the options market suggests that the annual meeting of central bankers at Jackson Hole in August may be the beginning of discussions on tightening bond purchases.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.jrjimg.cn/2021/05/cms_20210508015903792.jpg\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Meanwhile, Win Thin, head of global foreign exchange strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co., said investors should carefully analyze the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which, based on past experience, will discuss tapering first. The minutes of the April meeting will be published on May 19.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2021/05/08015932714137.shtml\">金融界网站</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af1d75a2b7a7bd95e0102711f4f871de","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"http://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2021/05/08015932714137.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2133968366","content_text":"美联储还没开始讨论缩减购债，一些投资者已经未雨绸缪了……随着美联储缩减量化宽松的步伐越来越近，对2013年的市场动荡记忆犹新的投资者们正努力减少投资组合的风险。2013年5月，时任美联储主席伯南克发出将开始缩减购债的信号，随后全球债券收益率飙升，风险资产大跌。一些基金经理担心波动率再次飙升，故转向较长期限的高收益债券寻求避险；而另一些基金经理则认为，缩减购债规模不会引发恐慌，并押注新兴市场资产。经济学家预计美联储将在今年年底前开始削减资产购买规模。但美联储官员表示，现在改变应对新冠疫情的货币政策还为时过早。然而，随着英国和加拿大经济的改善，两国货币当局开始减缓债券购买。这让投资者们觉得美联储也有可能会在经济增长的时候缩减量化宽松。美富信投资管理（MFS investment Management）投资主管Pilar Gomez-Bravo表示：“对市场而言，最大的威胁仍是债券收益率的波动性。风险资产的估值较高，投资者并没有太多自满的空间。”Gomez-Bravo认为，与投资级债券相比，垃圾债券也可以作为一种资产投资。在收益率重置时，垃圾债并不那么容易受到影响。投资级债券的期限更长，对利率的敏感性也更高。杰富瑞金融集团（Jefferies Financial Group Inc．）信贷策略师哈米德（Sherif Hamid）认为，杠杆贷款甚至是一个更好的选择。彭博的数据显示，投资级债券已经面临压力，最大的高评级信用交易所交易基金（ETF）正经历着2013年以来最长时间的资金外流。在2013年市场动荡中，债券市场最先受到影响。在伯南克发表讲话后的一个月里，10年期美国国债收益率跃升了50个基点。同期MSCI国际新兴市场指数下跌14%，纳斯达克100指数下跌4%。目前，以科技股为主的指数预期市盈率为26倍，而当时的预期市盈率仅为15倍。全球最大的资产管理公司贝莱德（BlackRock Inc．）认为，债券市场的大部分波动可能已经发生，新兴市场资产的表现应该会好得多。贝莱德投资研究所（BlackRock investment Institute）首席亚太投资策略师本・鲍威尔（Ben Powell）认为目前已经没有什么重大事件发生，收益率可能会小幅走高。10年期美国国债收益率今年以来上涨了约66个基点，目前在1.53%附近。今年以来，彭博巴克莱美国国债总回报指数（Bloomberg Barclays U.S． Treasury Total Return Index）下跌超过3%。贝莱德表示，经济复苏、大规模刺激计划和美元总体稳定等因素，足以让风险资产（包括发展中国家的风险资产）免受美联储缩减量化宽松的影响。本・鲍威尔表示，该公司增持了发达国家和新兴市场股票，在固定收益方面，他们上周实际上增持了新兴市场本币债券。在2月底小幅上涨后，衡量货币、国债和美国股市隐含波动性的指标有所回落，这表明投资者认为美联储不会立即宣布削减购债。但期权市场交易活动表明，8月份在Jackson Hole举行的央行行长年会或许是讨论收紧购债计划的开始。与此同时，布朗兄弟哈里曼公司（Brown Brothers Harriman &Co．）全球外汇策略主管Win Thin表示，投资者应仔细分析联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议纪要，根据以往经验，会议将首先讨论缩减规模。4月份的会议记录将于5月19日公布。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SH":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"NQmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2399,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}