A Strong Start Could Bring More Gains For S&P 500
10% gain from taking AMZN calls within 7 mins and started the weekend early. Price action is usually slow on Fridays so not wanting to give any profit back to the market. Fight another day! 😎
Quick scalp within 7 mins
Trade #1
A potential market reversal is looming in the U.S. as index futures indicate a lower open and closed at lower low on Friday. Global markets are experiencing negative cues, with Asian markets slumping due to growth concerns and European markets extending losses for a fifth consecutive session.
Energy prices are also on the decline. In the absence of significant corporate news, traders are likely to focus on Main Street data, including business activity reports, and scheduled speeches from the Federal Reserve Chair next Wednesday and Thursday.
Continuation to slide towards lower low
The major indices are up solidly so far this month. Going by historical performance, an analyst sees this as positive for the market.
Carson Group's Ryan Detrick noted that when the S&P 500 is up between 10-15% for the six months ended June, the index has advanced for the rest of the year 12 out of 12 times. With six sessions to go for the half-year, the S&P 500 is up 14.13%.
More importantly, the median gain is about 11%, Detrick said. The average year median gain for the final six months has been 5%, he added.
More gains expected for 2024
When the S&P 500 is up between 10-15% YTD as of the end of June, the rest of the year has been higher 12 out of 12 times and up a median of nearly 11%.
Do note the average final 6 months has a median increase of 5.0% and it is currently up 13.8% YTD.
That means we could possibly witness a breach above 450 by year end but do remember that the upcoming third quarter usually performs poorer than the rest of the year.
Weekly option trades summary
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