So we can only make some assumptions and some best estimates.
Is inflation still high? Yes. It has not come down to the 2% target. There will most likely be more rate hikes, and that benefits fixed-income securities.
How much more will stocks go higher? Honestly from a personal point of view, big tech’s rally was a bit of a surprise – firstly most corporates were either freezing or cutting headcount, and secondly, no one would have fathomed the positive catalyst that AI is bringing.
The recent bull market is running forward ahead while near-term skepticism and uncertainty still linger.
If you are risk aversive, there is no wrong in choosing to stay defensive at this moment. Returns on T-bills are as good as some REITs without the risk.
Conversely, for those who are in it for the long run, equities are still viable regardless of the short-term uncertainties.
If you are on the fence, well the good news is you can still have half of your cash in stocks while the other half in T-bills or other low-risk bonds. You are not required or forced to choose either one.
No one has the foresight of how low or how high a company can go. The only solace for an investor to find in a great company is that there are no big reasons or risks that the company should be trading lower for whatever fundamental reasons and catalyst.
That said, the caveat here is that not all companies are the same, be it fundamentally, technically, or even momentum-wise. So, know what you are buying, and how long is your holding period.
Just last week, the cut-off yield on the latest six-month Treasury bill (T-bill) in Singapore rose to 3.89%, at the close of its auction on Thursday.
For those who are unaware, T-bills are short-term tradable Singapore government debt securities. It is risk-free and backed by the Singapore government and the latest issue’s application totaled $9.9 billion for the $5 billion on offer.
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