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2023-07-12

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June CPI Is The River Card In Jay Powell's Faceoff With Inflation

Maybe Not, But I Still Think We Get Fewer

June CPI Is The River Card In Jay Powell's Faceoff With Inflation

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第一谋士郭嘉
·2023-08-09
朋友近期盈利還好嗎
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Many hands are made or broken at this fateful moment. And sometimes, what seemed like long odds before the card was turned suddenly becomes a reality once it is flipped. Someone can catch a flush or straight and defy the odds. It happens every day.When it happens, it is what is known as a &#34;bad beat.&#34; If you&#39;ve played poker, then you know how frustrating it can be. Let&#39;s say you have pocket aces or bullets, as they&#39;re colloquially called. You have an 85% chance of winning the hand on a pre-flop.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f4dcdd54adfd54d40e51f48712e510c\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"563\"/>The Action Network, How To Play Heads Up PokerBut then, let&#39;s say you flop an additional Ace and therefore have three of a kind. Your odds of victory have increased, so you should rightfully increase your bet. The turn is mostly inconsequential—no Ace. Then the river comes, and a straight draw comes into play—still no Ace. The odds still favor the person holding Hold Em&#39;s best hand, pocket Aces, but that doesn&#39;t mean they will win every time.Are folks legitimately paying attention to many indicators pointing toward recession on the verge of a bad beat? It&#39;s possible. Despite factors like an inverted yield curve, falling leading indicators, signs of an increasingly beleaguered consumer, and other mounting risks, it looks like a significant downward miss of CPI is a real possibility. This is in the context of increasing signs of economic strength across the US economy.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b85bcf42a47242c82f2dfbb0ae225f3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"391\"/>BloombergThe way CPI is measured is particular and nuanced. Everyone focuses on one number, but many angles are needed to understand what&#39;s truly going on in our economy. Used cars have been a huge driving factor in the persistence of inflation.Today&#39;s Manheim Report showed a record drop in used car prices, the largest drop since the beginning of the pandemic. This is a major driver of persistent core inflation and thus could signify relief in the June CPI.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dcd898d8b4751404734866e13dd8bdc\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"993\"/>@NewsLambertAnd while housing demand has been exceptionally strong in the face of very high mortgage rates, there are signs starting to show that consumer affordability is becoming a factor, which means there could be a double punch of relief to core inflation.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90172960a1fafb282d564a569aab88a4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\"/>BloombergA third reason that inflation could come down sustainably, aside from used cars and shelter, is that despite economic strength in the United States, globally, it looks as if there won&#39;t be as much oil demand as we thought earlier this year. China&#39;s economy reported inflation numbers that were on the brink of deflation, raising concerns about a potential recession.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f92c389afa72265ba507be2a833bcb85\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"374\"/>EIA Short-Term Energy OutlookThe US EIA Short-term Energy outlook also forecasts dropping energy prices for the remainder of the year. So, this gives the Fed additional cover and may increase their comfort level at conducting fewer rate hikes, or none, compared to what the dot plot currently suggests.<h2 id=\"id_1220614393\">Stick a Fork in the Fed? Maybe Not, But I Still Think We Get Fewer Rate Hikes Than Dot Plot</h2>Tomorrow&#39;s CPI Report seems to be, in some ways, the river card for the second most aggressive tightening cycle in history. It comes at a crucial juncture and on the heels of tough Fed talk about potential successive hikes. I&#39;m sticking with the prediction I made in the immediate aftermath of the last Fed meeting.<blockquote>I am stating right now that I predict either one hike or no more hikes are coming despite the dot plot suggesting two in the pipe and one FOMC member even suggesting as many as four. Bluff! This is bullish for the S&amp;P 500. The reasoning behind this assertion is that I believe inflation data will continue coming down fast enough not to justify further hikes. Talk is cheaper than hikes, to paraphrase bond market expert Jeffrey Gundlach.</blockquote>If there is a particularly favorable reading tomorrow, the Fed might possibly be tempted to continue the pause into July, though this is unlikely. Even if they end up doing two successive hikes, it&#39;s important to remember how interest rates work. The real effect on the economy could mean debt burdens by about 10% when they have exponentially risen over the past 18 months.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7b4bbd7fda2c5eedb714865f55d7964\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"588\"/>Federal Reserve, June SEPHistorically, we have been able to avoid recession when hiking cycles don&#39;t max out at 6% or above. You&#39;ll notice most FOMC members do not see rates as getting above this level, which is encouraging. Of course, this would likely change if Core Inflation remains persistent, but I don&#39;t think it will.So, always consider this fact. The Fed doesn&#39;t want to exacerbate the dormant banking crisis unnecessarily. It appears in hand for now, but the nation&#39;s regional banks are by no means out of the woods.Despite their negligible market cap, they punch far above their weight in their effect on economic activity, particularly since they provide credit in some of the most hyper-cyclical areas in terms of the unemployment rate.If we were in an environment where economic indicators were severely weakening, 10% could make the difference and tip a bunch of teetering firms into insolvency, but the case has been the opposite. There has been strength across the economy.<ul><li>The Fed tightening cycle is over, or nearly over, and gains from AI have been more fundamental than frustrated bears would like to admit, so this rally likely has legs.</li><li>The gain in large-cap Technology like Microsoft, Apple, and others has largely been due to enthusiasm over Artificial Intelligence. Still, these firms will also continue to do well if we avoid recession.</li><li>The Fed has given the all-clear to the market, permitting the current rally to continue, or at least as long as the downward trajectory of inflation continues.</li><li>Official projections from the June SEP have the economy avoiding a recession, and the Fed is increasingly taking more dovish than hawkish actions.</li><li>Indicators are showing resilience in the economy and the potential that an expansion may even be starting.</li><li>Housing market strength has been impressive, particularly in the face of high rates. Consumer confidence recently hit a 17-month high.</li></ul>It means to me that even in the worst-case scenario, the Fed will still be tilted to make &#34;higher for longer&#34; last for as little time as possible. Many in the bond market are screaming at the Fed that they have sufficiently tightened and usually cite concurrent and leading data as supporting their thesis. Also, the debt payments are getting higher for the Federal Government itself as well.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7d42f8db938b83022fbe7f5369caf1e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"235\"/>FREDThere was an adverse reaction to the jobs report last week. Still, many economists actually considered the labor readings from nonfarm payrolls last week to be quite positive and even right on track with a soft landing.<blockquote>In a sense, this is the best possible jobs report, then, threading the needle between too strong and too weak. People should be happy to see decent job growth and decent wage growth. The Fed can take pleasure in slowing momentum and wage growth stabilizing rather than rising, while bond traders can breathe a sigh of relief there is no sign of the strength picked up by ADP yesterday. It is win, win, win. -Chris Low, Chief Economist at FHN Financial</blockquote>Despite several other Economists having positive notions about the report, the market experienced an intraday pop, and then it diminished, with most indices finishing in the red on Friday. However, there was significant strength in small caps on Monday and Friday.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6df48ad7235351d3302875ab50057c50\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"242\"/>Seeking AlphaThis action, along with the strong performance of Transports and Consumer Discretionary and the weak performance of traditionally defensive areas, is further evidence suggesting a bull market has begun. In the event that CPI comes to light, it could shoot the market to new local highs.Still, the bears have many strong points, and it always feels like you stole it in an early bull market for good reason; sentiment can turn back quickly if developments go south, particularly given the strength of the Fed&#39;s hiking cycle.<h2 id=\"id_3921174687\">Risks and Where I Could Be Wrong</h2>Rates spiked last week when the ADP Jobs Report came in at more than double the expected number last Thursday. You can see the spike was significant, leading to many concerns about the stretched equity valuations since higher rates mean future earnings are more heavily discounted.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b37d0c48d816a8431fc1d18f70993a55\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"219\"/>Seeking AlphaIndeed, the yield curve has become more inverted, which is typically a good predictor of a recession. But it has been inverted for a while, and no recession has manifested. There are a number of reasons why it could be different, but I don&#39;t want to minimize how awful the curve is sending a signal.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dd298aa1e20181a8fc89551ae4815e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\"/>US Yield CurveI mean, look at that curve. It looks like it hit every branch on its fall from the ugly tree. But still, there are many reasons why the yield curve could be sending a false signal, given the extraordinary nature of catalysts over the past three and a half years. And remember, it&#39;s been sounding the alarm for many months now.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec24c67dfcdfb9b3e63e50ce56c55f95\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"/>The Conference BoardThere are other signs a recession could be coming. One of the most oft-cited statistics is the Conference Board Leading Indicators. As you can see, they do suggest a recession is imminent, and they could very well end up being prophetic.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77548add63fe3c587490466671ffa1e3\" tg-width=\"647\" tg-height=\"368\"/>BloombergA third major concern is that we are slated to have the third consecutive decline in earnings, and the market has been on a tear lately. Obviously, a calamitous earnings season could result in a reversal of these historic gains. There are a number of other risks that could result in the market going down, potentially even if we get a positive number on CPI that results in a looser Fed:<ul><li>Escalation in Ukraine or Taiwan.</li><li>Fed Policy Error.</li><li>Banking Issues Worsen.</li><li>Return of Inflation.</li><li>CRE meltdown.</li><li>Write-downs of Private Assets.</li></ul>There are a number of black swan risks stalking the market, and the bears make many valid and poignant points. Ultimately, I think the animal spirits of a new bull market will carry the day, and I think a positive reading on CPI could be a majorly positive inflection point to this effect.<h2 id=\"id_246242655\">Conclusion</h2>The CPI Report on Wednesday could be a major turning point that starts the closing argument of the Bulls. Yet, the Bears may have the last laugh if &#34;the River&#34; comes down in their favor. There are building indications that we could get a light CPI number, but this still doesn&#39;t guarantee inflation drivers like the War in Ukraine or other geopolitical flare-ups couldn&#39;t bring it right back up next month.I&#39;m hanging my hat with the bulls for this CPI report. I think there&#39;s convincing evidence that the sticky Core Inflation that has been one of the key factors behind the Fed&#39;s persistently tight stance could show it is less sticky than we thought. Strength in other areas of the economy could mean that despite the indicators signaling recession and a historical precedent for the Fed causing recession by tightening, one could still be avoided.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a9e3a5f9886164997bc8340c4af3212\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"417\"/>CME InsightsPlenty of indicators suggest the Bears could have it, and a recession will begin any moment now, but that has been the case for months. If we look at previous Fed tightening cycles, there&#39;s a two-thirds chance this tightening cycle will cause a recession.But there are also emerging green shoots suggesting we could be lucky this time and avoid the fate that has befallen the economy most of the time in the wake of a Fed tightening cycle. Take, for instance, that positive guidance pre-announcements are at their highest in two years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d08372805e3d653e9e02a59b108c11\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"370\"/>FactSetSo there&#39;s a lot of conflicting data and good arguments from both the bulls and the bears. For my money, though, it is looking to me like there&#39;s an increasing chance that the Fed will get lucky on the river and give the Bears expecting a recession, what&#39;s known as a bad beat.</body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>June CPI Is The River Card In Jay Powell's Faceoff With Inflation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJune CPI Is The River Card In Jay Powell's Faceoff With Inflation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-07-12 23:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4616252-june-cpi-report-jay-powell-faceoff-with-inflation>Seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nAlbertoChagasWhen the \"river card\" is turned in the game of Texas Hold Em poker, it can often be climactic as it is the final card. Many hands are made or broken at this fateful moment. And sometimes,...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4616252-june-cpi-report-jay-powell-faceoff-with-inflation\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4616252-june-cpi-report-jay-powell-faceoff-with-inflation","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2350144131","content_text":"AlbertoChagasWhen the \"river card\" is turned in the game of Texas Hold Em poker, it can often be climactic as it is the final card. Many hands are made or broken at this fateful moment. And sometimes, what seemed like long odds before the card was turned suddenly becomes a reality once it is flipped. Someone can catch a flush or straight and defy the odds. It happens every day.When it happens, it is what is known as a \"bad beat.\" If you've played poker, then you know how frustrating it can be. Let's say you have pocket aces or bullets, as they're colloquially called. You have an 85% chance of winning the hand on a pre-flop.The Action Network, How To Play Heads Up PokerBut then, let's say you flop an additional Ace and therefore have three of a kind. Your odds of victory have increased, so you should rightfully increase your bet. The turn is mostly inconsequential—no Ace. Then the river comes, and a straight draw comes into play—still no Ace. The odds still favor the person holding Hold Em's best hand, pocket Aces, but that doesn't mean they will win every time.Are folks legitimately paying attention to many indicators pointing toward recession on the verge of a bad beat? It's possible. Despite factors like an inverted yield curve, falling leading indicators, signs of an increasingly beleaguered consumer, and other mounting risks, it looks like a significant downward miss of CPI is a real possibility. This is in the context of increasing signs of economic strength across the US economy.BloombergThe way CPI is measured is particular and nuanced. Everyone focuses on one number, but many angles are needed to understand what's truly going on in our economy. Used cars have been a huge driving factor in the persistence of inflation.Today's Manheim Report showed a record drop in used car prices, the largest drop since the beginning of the pandemic. This is a major driver of persistent core inflation and thus could signify relief in the June CPI.@NewsLambertAnd while housing demand has been exceptionally strong in the face of very high mortgage rates, there are signs starting to show that consumer affordability is becoming a factor, which means there could be a double punch of relief to core inflation.BloombergA third reason that inflation could come down sustainably, aside from used cars and shelter, is that despite economic strength in the United States, globally, it looks as if there won't be as much oil demand as we thought earlier this year. China's economy reported inflation numbers that were on the brink of deflation, raising concerns about a potential recession.EIA Short-Term Energy OutlookThe US EIA Short-term Energy outlook also forecasts dropping energy prices for the remainder of the year. So, this gives the Fed additional cover and may increase their comfort level at conducting fewer rate hikes, or none, compared to what the dot plot currently suggests.Stick a Fork in the Fed? Maybe Not, But I Still Think We Get Fewer Rate Hikes Than Dot PlotTomorrow's CPI Report seems to be, in some ways, the river card for the second most aggressive tightening cycle in history. It comes at a crucial juncture and on the heels of tough Fed talk about potential successive hikes. I'm sticking with the prediction I made in the immediate aftermath of the last Fed meeting.I am stating right now that I predict either one hike or no more hikes are coming despite the dot plot suggesting two in the pipe and one FOMC member even suggesting as many as four. Bluff! This is bullish for the S&P 500. The reasoning behind this assertion is that I believe inflation data will continue coming down fast enough not to justify further hikes. Talk is cheaper than hikes, to paraphrase bond market expert Jeffrey Gundlach.If there is a particularly favorable reading tomorrow, the Fed might possibly be tempted to continue the pause into July, though this is unlikely. Even if they end up doing two successive hikes, it's important to remember how interest rates work. The real effect on the economy could mean debt burdens by about 10% when they have exponentially risen over the past 18 months.Federal Reserve, June SEPHistorically, we have been able to avoid recession when hiking cycles don't max out at 6% or above. You'll notice most FOMC members do not see rates as getting above this level, which is encouraging. Of course, this would likely change if Core Inflation remains persistent, but I don't think it will.So, always consider this fact. The Fed doesn't want to exacerbate the dormant banking crisis unnecessarily. It appears in hand for now, but the nation's regional banks are by no means out of the woods.Despite their negligible market cap, they punch far above their weight in their effect on economic activity, particularly since they provide credit in some of the most hyper-cyclical areas in terms of the unemployment rate.If we were in an environment where economic indicators were severely weakening, 10% could make the difference and tip a bunch of teetering firms into insolvency, but the case has been the opposite. There has been strength across the economy.The Fed tightening cycle is over, or nearly over, and gains from AI have been more fundamental than frustrated bears would like to admit, so this rally likely has legs.The gain in large-cap Technology like Microsoft, Apple, and others has largely been due to enthusiasm over Artificial Intelligence. Still, these firms will also continue to do well if we avoid recession.The Fed has given the all-clear to the market, permitting the current rally to continue, or at least as long as the downward trajectory of inflation continues.Official projections from the June SEP have the economy avoiding a recession, and the Fed is increasingly taking more dovish than hawkish actions.Indicators are showing resilience in the economy and the potential that an expansion may even be starting.Housing market strength has been impressive, particularly in the face of high rates. Consumer confidence recently hit a 17-month high.It means to me that even in the worst-case scenario, the Fed will still be tilted to make \"higher for longer\" last for as little time as possible. Many in the bond market are screaming at the Fed that they have sufficiently tightened and usually cite concurrent and leading data as supporting their thesis. Also, the debt payments are getting higher for the Federal Government itself as well.FREDThere was an adverse reaction to the jobs report last week. Still, many economists actually considered the labor readings from nonfarm payrolls last week to be quite positive and even right on track with a soft landing.In a sense, this is the best possible jobs report, then, threading the needle between too strong and too weak. People should be happy to see decent job growth and decent wage growth. The Fed can take pleasure in slowing momentum and wage growth stabilizing rather than rising, while bond traders can breathe a sigh of relief there is no sign of the strength picked up by ADP yesterday. It is win, win, win. -Chris Low, Chief Economist at FHN FinancialDespite several other Economists having positive notions about the report, the market experienced an intraday pop, and then it diminished, with most indices finishing in the red on Friday. However, there was significant strength in small caps on Monday and Friday.Seeking AlphaThis action, along with the strong performance of Transports and Consumer Discretionary and the weak performance of traditionally defensive areas, is further evidence suggesting a bull market has begun. In the event that CPI comes to light, it could shoot the market to new local highs.Still, the bears have many strong points, and it always feels like you stole it in an early bull market for good reason; sentiment can turn back quickly if developments go south, particularly given the strength of the Fed's hiking cycle.Risks and Where I Could Be WrongRates spiked last week when the ADP Jobs Report came in at more than double the expected number last Thursday. You can see the spike was significant, leading to many concerns about the stretched equity valuations since higher rates mean future earnings are more heavily discounted.Seeking AlphaIndeed, the yield curve has become more inverted, which is typically a good predictor of a recession. But it has been inverted for a while, and no recession has manifested. There are a number of reasons why it could be different, but I don't want to minimize how awful the curve is sending a signal.US Yield CurveI mean, look at that curve. It looks like it hit every branch on its fall from the ugly tree. But still, there are many reasons why the yield curve could be sending a false signal, given the extraordinary nature of catalysts over the past three and a half years. And remember, it's been sounding the alarm for many months now.The Conference BoardThere are other signs a recession could be coming. One of the most oft-cited statistics is the Conference Board Leading Indicators. As you can see, they do suggest a recession is imminent, and they could very well end up being prophetic.BloombergA third major concern is that we are slated to have the third consecutive decline in earnings, and the market has been on a tear lately. Obviously, a calamitous earnings season could result in a reversal of these historic gains. There are a number of other risks that could result in the market going down, potentially even if we get a positive number on CPI that results in a looser Fed:Escalation in Ukraine or Taiwan.Fed Policy Error.Banking Issues Worsen.Return of Inflation.CRE meltdown.Write-downs of Private Assets.There are a number of black swan risks stalking the market, and the bears make many valid and poignant points. Ultimately, I think the animal spirits of a new bull market will carry the day, and I think a positive reading on CPI could be a majorly positive inflection point to this effect.ConclusionThe CPI Report on Wednesday could be a major turning point that starts the closing argument of the Bulls. Yet, the Bears may have the last laugh if \"the River\" comes down in their favor. There are building indications that we could get a light CPI number, but this still doesn't guarantee inflation drivers like the War in Ukraine or other geopolitical flare-ups couldn't bring it right back up next month.I'm hanging my hat with the bulls for this CPI report. I think there's convincing evidence that the sticky Core Inflation that has been one of the key factors behind the Fed's persistently tight stance could show it is less sticky than we thought. Strength in other areas of the economy could mean that despite the indicators signaling recession and a historical precedent for the Fed causing recession by tightening, one could still be avoided.CME InsightsPlenty of indicators suggest the Bears could have it, and a recession will begin any moment now, but that has been the case for months. If we look at previous Fed tightening cycles, there's a two-thirds chance this tightening cycle will cause a recession.But there are also emerging green shoots suggesting we could be lucky this time and avoid the fate that has befallen the economy most of the time in the wake of a Fed tightening cycle. Take, for instance, that positive guidance pre-announcements are at their highest in two years.FactSetSo there's a lot of conflicting data and good arguments from both the bulls and the bears. For my money, though, it is looking to me like there's an increasing chance that the Fed will get lucky on the river and give the Bears expecting a recession, what's known as a bad beat.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":153,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":36,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":106501499,"gmtCreate":1691572715866,"gmtModify":1691572722079,"authorId":4154232844165132,"author":{"id":4154232844165132,"authorId":4154232844165132,"name":"第一谋士郭嘉","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1b061dc7ed19f436b42e4682039e8e69","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":197138122301640,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"朋友近期盈利還好嗎","text":"朋友近期盈利還好嗎","html":"朋友近期盈利還好嗎","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0}],"hasMoreComment":true,"orderType":2}