To The Moon

Big tech stocks got huge gains in the first half of this year, driving the Nasdaq to its best performance in 40 years. Chipmaker Nvidia led the way, riding the artificial intelligence boom to a 188.63% rally this year and entering the trillion-dollar club. Apple jumped 45.16% this year, surpassing $3 trillion in market cap at one time, while Meta and Tesla both more than doubled. The Q2 earnings season is set to start later this week when a number of banks are due to report on their performance for the April quarter. The earnings of big tech will also arrive one after another. These star stocks will become the focus of investors' attention, as their financial performance will largely affect the future trend of US stocks. Can big tech stocks continue to win? Who will become the new winner again? Let's wait and see. What analysts are saying about US stocks Morgan Stanley: “While 2Q results are unlikely to solidify the bull or bear earnings case for 2H, we think stocks will need more confirmation of the turn in growth than they have over the past 6 months given higher valuations, deteriorating liquidity, and proximity to the second half when consensus expects a recovery—i.e., "better than feared" is likely no longer good enough.” Bernstein: “Tech is now trading at a 54% premium to the market, its highest level in 45 years other than the dot com bubble, and well above its historical average premium of 26%... We struggle to recommend an overweight in tech for the second half, and believe stock picking increasingly matters, particularly since the five largest tech companies account for nearly 56% of tech's total capitalization (and the top 2 account for 33%), three of which are at very high relative valuations (95%+) vs. history.” Citi: “After a solid 1H, US outperformance may go on pause. We downgrade the US to Neutral, while upgrading Europe to Overweight. The European market is trading at a record discount to the US and is pricing in a more reasonable EPS growth path… Our US Strategy team thinks megacap Growth is set for a pullback, while US recession risks could still bite.” JPMorgan: “FOMO is in full swing, there is complacency being built into stocks with VIX at the lows of its range. All this suggests that, if the activity momentum does weaken in 2H, relative to the current projections of no/soft landing, stocks are unlikely to shrug it off, or look through, as they are not priced for disappointment anymore, even if one is to fully take out the Tech/AI/FAANG groups from the equation. Low beta sectors would outperform against that backdrop.” BTIG: “Despite the weakness, SPX continues to respect its rising 20 DMA (4383). That is the first bogey for bears, but ultimately they need to break back under 4,300 to get any real traction. We continue think 3Q represents an opportunity to rent value over growth.” Baird: “Inflation has come off of its peak level of 9% all the way down to 4%, so that’s a plus. On valuation, however, there's still work that needs to be done, especially after the recent rally. And then lastly, organic drivers of growth. This one has proven more elusive given the difficult operating environment. And while AI has now become all the rage, it remains to be seen whether it can be that long-term organic driver of growth that we need.” $(AAPL)$ $(MSFT)$ $(AMZN)$ $(GOOGL)$ $(NFLX)$ $(META)$ $(NVDA)$ $(TSLA)$