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2021-05-19

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Tesla: Forget Shorts For Now

Summary Short interest has dropped to a multi-year low. Less than 5.4% of float and outstanding cou

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":197965535,"tweetId":"197965535","gmtCreate":1621421057127,"gmtModify":1704357333837,"author":{"id":3578106945304880,"authorId":3578106945304880,"authorIdStr":"3578106945304880","name":"filixnah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f84688ff84c1cf1b1e88f5483e70218","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":3,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Nice</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Nice</p></body></html>","text":"Nice","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197965535","repostId":1170936363,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170936363","pubTimestamp":1621416097,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1170936363?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-19 17:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Forget Shorts For Now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170936363","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nShort interest has dropped to a multi-year low.\nLess than 5.4% of float and outstanding cou","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Short interest has dropped to a multi-year low.</li>\n <li>Less than 5.4% of float and outstanding count short.</li>\n <li>Stock is in a very weak place on a technical basis.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/707bb99dcaa93d75f576a78ef1ecd11c\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by jetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Electric vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA) was one of the best-performing stocks last year. As the rally continued on, we kept hearing about how much money short-sellers were losing. Recently, we haven't heard a lot of talk like that as the stock has come down, but investors and the media still like to focus on those that are bearish regarding the name. Today, I'd like to update everyone on how the numbers really look, because they might be quite surprising.</p>\n<p>Tesla used to be one of the most shorted names in the market when looking at various metrics like the percentage of shares short, regardless of whether you are using float data or shares outstanding. However, very high short interest isn't in the picture anymore as the chart below shows. When I looked&nbsp;at this very situation&nbsp;roughly 6 months ago, we had just dipped below 50 million shares short (on an adjusted basis) for the first time in a number of years.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c39a321bcd19be4504c300a62935f65c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\"><span>(Source: NASDAQ Tesla short interest page,seen here)</span></p>\n<p>Last week, we received the bi-monthly update showing the number of Tesla shares short at the end of April, and the number was a little under 41.4 million. Obviously, this figure represents a new multi-year low, and short interest is down 52% over the past 12 months. If we go back to the start of my chart, the middle of June 2019 update, the total number of bearish bets against this stock is down a little more than 80%. I'd like to remind everyone of the following point I made in that previous article:</p>\n<blockquote>\n There can be multiple reasons for the number of shares short to decline this much. The bulls will likely point to improving financials, highlighted by strong revenue growth and GAAP profits thanks to credit sales. We also could be seeing an unwind of a pair trade, from those that are long the convertible bonds. Additionally, in this low interest rate environment with governments and central banks pouring lots of money into the system, there seemingly has been a move away from short interest in general.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Almost all of Tesla's convertible bonds have either matured or been exchanged for cash/equity, so that part of the picture has completely changed. I also mentioned in that previous article that the stock looked a lot different on both a fundamental and technical basis than it had previously. At that point, shares were basically trading within a few percent of the&nbsp;average street price target&nbsp;for example, and now Tesla shares are well below that key level. It makes sense to have a lot less short interest when the stock trades $100 below its average price target than when it is $100 above.</p>\n<p>A potential short squeeze has always been one item that some Tesla bulls have held on to in hopes for future gains. At times, when we saw 20%, 30%, or more of the float short, a squeeze was definitely possible. As investors know, the company is not currently buying back stock, so investors are being diluted by the quarter. The chart below shows how the outstanding share count is rising by the year, and this increase isn't something that's expected to change in the near future.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2de6d2e620d5ac8cb7a5385ec8f8b09\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"319\"><span>(Source: Tesla quarterly/annual filings,seen here)</span></p>\n<p>The short squeeze thesis is all but gone at this point. I say that because if we use&nbsp;estimated float data&nbsp;from Yahoo! Finance, only about 5.34% of the float is now short. If you use the outstanding share count which is almost 200 million shares higher, the number is obviously a bit lower. Based on&nbsp;data from Finviz, Tesla isn't even in the top 45 of most shorted S&amp;P 500 names in terms of float. Yes, the dollar amount of Tesla shares that have been shorted may be large when you read it in print on the screen, but in terms of this stock things aren't exactly in the flashing red category anymore.</p>\n<p>On the technical side, Tesla lost its 200-day moving average again with Monday's decline. Unfortunately, we're moving closer to the point where a death cross will occur, where the 50-day breaks below the 200-day. Earlier this year, the short-term trend line at its peak was about $320 above the longer-term one, but that gap finished last week under $90, down about $15 on the week.</p>\n<p>While Tesla used to be one of the most shorted names in the market, investors should not consider a potential squeeze as a catalyst at this point. The end of April data showed that short interest has hit a new multi-year low, and is down more than 80% in roughly two years. With the stock having pulled back a bit so far this month, we might see even more bearish bets covered at the next update, although the technical picture for this stock isn't great currently. Unless short interest starts to rise significantly in the near future, investors need to find another catalyst if they are looking for upside.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Forget Shorts For Now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Forget Shorts For Now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-19 17:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429633-tesla-forget-shorts-for-now><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nShort interest has dropped to a multi-year low.\nLess than 5.4% of float and outstanding count short.\nStock is in a very weak place on a technical basis.\n\nPhoto by jetcityimage/iStock ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429633-tesla-forget-shorts-for-now\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429633-tesla-forget-shorts-for-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1170936363","content_text":"Summary\n\nShort interest has dropped to a multi-year low.\nLess than 5.4% of float and outstanding count short.\nStock is in a very weak place on a technical basis.\n\nPhoto by jetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nElectric vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA) was one of the best-performing stocks last year. As the rally continued on, we kept hearing about how much money short-sellers were losing. Recently, we haven't heard a lot of talk like that as the stock has come down, but investors and the media still like to focus on those that are bearish regarding the name. Today, I'd like to update everyone on how the numbers really look, because they might be quite surprising.\nTesla used to be one of the most shorted names in the market when looking at various metrics like the percentage of shares short, regardless of whether you are using float data or shares outstanding. However, very high short interest isn't in the picture anymore as the chart below shows. When I looked at this very situation roughly 6 months ago, we had just dipped below 50 million shares short (on an adjusted basis) for the first time in a number of years.\n(Source: NASDAQ Tesla short interest page,seen here)\nLast week, we received the bi-monthly update showing the number of Tesla shares short at the end of April, and the number was a little under 41.4 million. Obviously, this figure represents a new multi-year low, and short interest is down 52% over the past 12 months. If we go back to the start of my chart, the middle of June 2019 update, the total number of bearish bets against this stock is down a little more than 80%. I'd like to remind everyone of the following point I made in that previous article:\n\n There can be multiple reasons for the number of shares short to decline this much. The bulls will likely point to improving financials, highlighted by strong revenue growth and GAAP profits thanks to credit sales. We also could be seeing an unwind of a pair trade, from those that are long the convertible bonds. Additionally, in this low interest rate environment with governments and central banks pouring lots of money into the system, there seemingly has been a move away from short interest in general.\n\nAlmost all of Tesla's convertible bonds have either matured or been exchanged for cash/equity, so that part of the picture has completely changed. I also mentioned in that previous article that the stock looked a lot different on both a fundamental and technical basis than it had previously. At that point, shares were basically trading within a few percent of the average street price target for example, and now Tesla shares are well below that key level. It makes sense to have a lot less short interest when the stock trades $100 below its average price target than when it is $100 above.\nA potential short squeeze has always been one item that some Tesla bulls have held on to in hopes for future gains. At times, when we saw 20%, 30%, or more of the float short, a squeeze was definitely possible. As investors know, the company is not currently buying back stock, so investors are being diluted by the quarter. The chart below shows how the outstanding share count is rising by the year, and this increase isn't something that's expected to change in the near future.\n(Source: Tesla quarterly/annual filings,seen here)\nThe short squeeze thesis is all but gone at this point. I say that because if we use estimated float data from Yahoo! Finance, only about 5.34% of the float is now short. If you use the outstanding share count which is almost 200 million shares higher, the number is obviously a bit lower. Based on data from Finviz, Tesla isn't even in the top 45 of most shorted S&P 500 names in terms of float. Yes, the dollar amount of Tesla shares that have been shorted may be large when you read it in print on the screen, but in terms of this stock things aren't exactly in the flashing red category anymore.\nOn the technical side, Tesla lost its 200-day moving average again with Monday's decline. Unfortunately, we're moving closer to the point where a death cross will occur, where the 50-day breaks below the 200-day. Earlier this year, the short-term trend line at its peak was about $320 above the longer-term one, but that gap finished last week under $90, down about $15 on the week.\nWhile Tesla used to be one of the most shorted names in the market, investors should not consider a potential squeeze as a catalyst at this point. The end of April data showed that short interest has hit a new multi-year low, and is down more than 80% in roughly two years. With the stock having pulled back a bit so far this month, we might see even more bearish bets covered at the next update, although the technical picture for this stock isn't great currently. Unless short interest starts to rise significantly in the near future, investors need to find another catalyst if they are looking for upside.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":306,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}