To The Moon

$Lucid Group Inc(LCID)$ is scheduled to report its Q2 earnings on 07 Aug 23 after market close. Lucid has reported approximately $149 million revenues for Q1 2023, this is an increase of 159% for year-over-year.

In April 2023, Lucid has started to deliver Lucid Air with Stealth Appearance, which is available as an option for Air Grand Touring and Air Touring. The new Stealth Appearance has redefined the nature of Lucid Air, with changes of up to 35 components on the exterior of the vehicle.

This launch of the new car is supposed to improve the revenue growth for Q2 2023, but the production of vehicles is actually down to 2,173 vehicles from what was 2,314 vehicles in Q1.

The delivery was also down in Q2 from 1,406 in Q1 to 1,404. This decline in deliveries should have significant negative impact on Lucid earnings in the Q2 reporting.

In this article, I will be analyzing its Q2 earnings release by looking at Lucid fundamental data as well as the technical analysis on how Lucid shares have been trading in recent weeks.

Lucid Group (LCID) Earnings Data

As shared above, the drop in production and deliveries in Q2 for Lucid would mean that they will not be getting much boost to their revenue.

I would think Lucid EPS might be worse than the forecast. I also foresee that there might be a decrease in their revenue takings.

Lucid Group (LCID) Earnings History

Based on the last Q1 result, the EPS has been worse than forecast even though they have a revenue better than one year ago same period.

I would expect the EPS to be lower than -0.34, it could be in the range of -0.45 to -0.47.

Lucid Group (LCID) Year-To-Date Earnings

Lucid has return more than 5% of growth YTD, but what is concerning would be how Lucid would be navigate the sales of new cars.

Even with new cars and features, it does not seem to have helped Lucid. Considering that the EV space would get more and more competitive, I would be looking out for the plan that Lucid planned to roll out to improve their production and deliveries.

Only then, I believe Lucid can stay in the game.

Lucid Group (LCID) Financial Overview

As both the production and deliveries has declined, I would believe that we could be seeing a decline in total revenue, this would also mean less cash flow.

Lucid might not be able to implement any new initiative if that happen. Unless Lucid has plans for financing.

This is another area that I would be looking for in the Q2 earnings reporting happening after market close on 07 Aug 2023.

Lucid Group (LCID) Sentiment Analysis

Surprisingly, investors are positive about Lucid future and we can see that for long term, investors are increasing their portfolios by 3.0% in the last 30 days, but we can see that over the last 7 days, there have been a decrease of 0.4%.

I believe this decrease would continue as investors would be looking for clues on how Lucid planned to navigate their low production and low deliveries issues.

Lucid Group (LCID) Option Chain

For Lucid on the option side, I believe there might be a decrease of more than 10%.

This would be more selling should be expected.

Technical Analysis – Simple Moving Averages (SMA)

Lucid have been in the bear trend for a long time (more than 300 trading days). This situation might not improved in the near term.

Unless we can see a very positive earnings and maybe guidance which bring confidence to this EV makers. I do not see how Lucid is going to move into bull trend soon.

Technical Analysis – Relative Strength Index (RSI)

RSI momentum is good and I observed that it is actually trending towards the oversold region.

Could there be more buying prior to its earnings release on 07 Aug 2023? There have been decline in their production and deliveries in Q2, unless there are some positive news on collaboration or big orders coming.

I do not expect to see much Buying activities in Lucid shares.

Technical Analysis – Average Directional Index (ADX)

ADX is below 20 which indicate a weak trend and -DI is above +DI which suggest a bearish downtrend.

Lucid share price would be expected to be trading downside unless we can have a positive outlook from its earnings report.

Technical Analysis – Parabolic SAR (SAR)

SAR shown that Lucid show a potential bearish reversal, this could be due to the release of their Q2 production and deliveries which does not seem to impress.

I believe Lucid share price should be trending downside. I would avoid this stock while I monitor and await the release of their earnings report.

Summary

From what I have observed, Lucid seem to be trading downside even before the earnings report. Their Q2 production and deliveries do little to help its share price.

I would monitor how Lucid would be trading but will not plan any position until after the earnings report, I will reassess.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think Lucid would change its tide by a impressive earnings report or outlook?

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.