To The Moon

The Novavax $Novavax(NVAX)$ stock price fell by -3.86% on Tuesday, 8th Aug 2023 from $7.52 to $7.23. It has now fallen 6 days in a row. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 24.23% from a day low at $7.10 to a day high of $8.82. The price has fallen in 7 of the last 10 days and is down by -9.63% for this period. Volume has increased on the last day by 22 million shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 30 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $215.12 million.

The stock lies in the lower part of a very wide and weak rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good buying opportunity. If the lower trend floor at $6.85 is broken, it will firstly indicate a slower rate of rising, but may also be an early warning for a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 4.04% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $7.13 and $10.14 at the end of this 3-month period.

NVAX Signals & Forecast

There are few to no technical positive signals at the moment. The Novavax stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $8.21 and $7.96. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Tuesday, July 11, 2023, and so far it has fallen -24.84%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the stock should be followed more closely.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Novavax stock

Novavax finds support from accumulated volume at $7.16 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

This stock may move much during the day (volatility) and with a large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this stock is considered to be "high risk". During the last day, the stock moved $1.72 between high and low, or 24.23%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 11.48%.

Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.

Trading Expectations (NVAX) For The Trading Day Of Wednesday 9th

For the trading day on Wednesday, 9th we expect Novavax Inc to open at $7.72, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $6.54 and $7.92, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.693 (+/-9.58%) up or down from last closing price. If Novavax Inc takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 19.16% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $7.16 (0.97%) than the resistance at $7.47 (3.32%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..

Insiders are very positive buying more shares than they are selling in Novavax

In the last 100 trades there were 1.22 million shares bought and 196.17 thousand shares sold. The last trade was made 45 days ago by Trizzino John who bough 833 shares. The large amount of stocks bought compared to stocks sold indicate that the insiders believe there is a potential good upside. In some cases larger purchases can be explained by due date for stock options.

Is Novavax Inc stock A Buy?

The Novavax stock holds several negative signals and despite the positive trend, we believe Novavax will perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. Therefore, we hold a negative evaluation of this stock.