To The Moon

From the mountains

Hi all! Back with another trade plan. Yesterday was a badly red day, I found myself tilting in the simulator. I’ve just come back from a long bike n’ hike with my mind totally cleared. Tilting WILL NOT occur today, as I mentioned I am taking 2 trades only today, one 30 second OR breakout and one around the location or timing of IB low / IB high / NHOD / NLOD. It’s frustrating, but I need to build good habits in the simulator or I’m just setting myself back what could potentially be years from being profitable if I start following bad habits.

Thursday’s Session Recap

MNQ opened for the cash session at 14994.25, within the previous day’s trading range. After a small establishment upwards of the 30 second opening range, it was all selling from there. I screwed up what would have been my trade of the year so far, messing up the execution of shorts out of this range. Buyers did try to step in in E-G periods, but when the initial balance is so heavily down, we know what to watch for: either we accept within at least half of the IB, or we risk further selling outside. For anyone who missed morning shorts, this G period peak and continually rejection of the IB midpoint provided a great opportunity to short, or potentially event to add if you had shorts from the morning. This session classified as an AMT trend, bias down. The return of the session was -1.48%. The highest point from open was 15008, 0.09% above the open and achieved during A period. The lowest point from open was 14754, -1.60% below the open and achieved during L period. MNQ closed for the cash session at 14772.

OR: 14907.5–15008 (100.5 points)

IB: 14882–15008 (126 points)

TR: 14754–15008 (254 points)

Trade Plan

My pivot will be yesterday’s close, at 14772. Above, I’m interested in 14854, as this seemed to be the last point the buyers tried to defend, and once it was broken in the afternoon it lead to a flush. Even further is 14958, the swing high which matches the 30 second IB midpoint to the tick. To the downside, I’ll observe the nice round 14600. Below that, I found a fantastically defended level from buyers back in July at 14425 (but hitting this level means a BIG drop is required!)

However, I did want to note, my levels for yesterday were quite good, given it was my first time making them for MNQ:

Key Levels

Pivot: 14772
Upside Levels: 14854, 14958
Downside Levels: 14600, 14425
Notes: It’s August OPX. Expect choppy price action to be afoot, but after yesterday’s session, anything is possible.

Other Levels to Watch / Note from Thursday’s Session

Monthly OTF down; ends 15551
Weekly OTF down; ends 15441.75
Daily OTF down; ends 15166

Timeframe Overview

Monthly Value (VPOC): 15415
Weekly Value (VPOC): 15111
Daily Value (VPOC): 14870

Value Overview

Monthly Value (VPOC): 15415
Weekly Value (VPOC): 15111
Daily Value (VPOC): 14870

Trade Review

-$1100 in the simulator, -$300 in the real account. Folks. Not sure what I did wrong this session, tried 30 second OR breakouts to the upside multiple times, getting stopped out each time, IB high look above and fail shorts but they rose back to break even (multiple times), then finally a long on the convincing IB breakout in the afternoon with a profit target at the gap close, which also got stopped out. Each of these are decent strategies, but my execution apparently isn’t where it needs to be. Not sure if I’ll ever see a 50+ point winner, most I’ve been lucky to scrape away — even their MFE — was 30–40 points. Here’s a screenshot from the real account, with some notes:

At this point I just feel like giving up. I’m staying away from trading probably at least until September, more likely October. The truth is I don’t really have an edge or really know what it could be for me. I have some vague ideas but my issue is to know if they really work over time will take months (if you focus on one trade setup, you get maybe 1–2 chances per session to try it). I also don’t have any sort of other income or giant nest egg like most of the profitable traders I know, so my stake right now is basically my savings, and I’m obviously nowhere near consistently profitable. This puts extra pressure on me, which is the last thing a beginner needs.

In general, I’m thinking about trading day and night, and it’s sometimes even effecting my sleep. This wouldn’t be so bad if it was something like an exciting job that you get payed nicely for. But right now spending that much time ruminating and thinking about charts and strategies with no payout — or worse — negative payout — just isn’t doing me any good spiritually or mentally.

This really hurts because I’ve been able to learn anything I’ve set my mind to throughout my life, and with trading I even went 200% leaning in on learning and absorbing all that I could. Maybe 7 months is anyway overexpectant, but it’s starting to exhaust me, all this effort with no decent results.

Hopefully once I can restore my stake to 10K fully, with a consistent income to back me up, build an edge I know that works over time, and spend more time in the simulator, I’ll be back.

Until then, it’s been a great ride, and just know I’ve never been a part of a community that was so welcoming and helpful as the trading community. You all rock!

I shall return.

Market Litany

The market is my shepherd;

I will follow the market.

I will not fight the market;

I will align with the market as best I can.

I will not short above the opening range high;

I will not long below the opening range low.

I will not short above the initial balance high;

I will not long below the initial balance low.

I will not overtrade;

I will not tilt.

I will show up every day;

I will execute according to my plan.

Cheers and as always, good luck out there!

-Chris

A reminder that I am still ultimately a beginner to intraday trading and trading futures. This is not an alert service and none of this is financial advice.

Originally published at https://amtjoy.substack.com.

Trade Plan: Friday, August 18th, 2023 was originally published in AMT JOY on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.