To The Moon

Just before the US stock market, the new force of car manufacturing NIO $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ $NIO Inc.(NIO.SI)$ $NIO-SW(09866)$ released its second quarterly report for 2023. The results and guidelines were lower than expected, and the pre-market share price fell nearly 5%:

Specifically, revenue in the second quarter of NIO was 8.77 billion yuan, down 14.8% from a year earlier, below analysts' expectations of 9.15 billion yuan:

The main reason for the decline in revenue was the decline in sales. In the second quarter of this year, NIO delivered a total of 23,520 vehicles, down 6.1% year-on-year:

The decline in revenue is higher than that of sales, mainly due to a sharp decline in unit revenue, which is 305500 yuan in the second quarter of 2023, down 20% from the same period last year. The launch of low-cost models such as ET5 has lowered the average price:

Revenue fell short of expectations, and the extent of the loss panicked the market, with a gross profit margin of only 1% in the second quarter, lower than 3.25% of analysts:

By business, the gross profit margin of vehicle sales in the second quarter of NIO was 6.2%, which was lower than the 7.65% expected by analysts, but increased from 5.1% in the first quarter, and stopped the downward trend, mainly due to the reduction of promotional discounts on the previous generation of ES8, ES6 and EC6 models:

Significantly lower than the gross profit margin of its peers, NIO is still frantically investing in R&D and promotion in the second quarter, of which, R&D investment in the second quarter is 3.34 billion yuan, a sharp increase of 55.6% over the same period last year, and analysts expect 3.055 billion; sales and administrative expenses are 2.86 billion yuan, an increase of 25.2% over the same period last year, and analysts expect 2.4 billion yuan:

As a result, NIO's net loss in the second quarter was as high as 6.06 billion yuan, much higher than the 4.73 billion yuan expected by analysts!

Poor performance in the second quarter can be felt through the monthly sales data, even if the revenue and profit in the second quarter are much lower than expected, but after all, sales in July hit a record high, reaching 20,462 vehicles, an increase of 103.6%. So as long as the subsequent sales data continue to climb, the loss at the moment is not worth talking about.

However, management expects deliveries in the third quarter to be between 55,000 and 57,000 vehicles, although an increase of 74% to 80.3% year-on-year, but excluding July sales, the average monthly sales in August and September, using the median forecast, is only 17,769 vehicles, a sequential decline.

For new energy vehicle companies, the most favorable thing for the stock price is the monthly sales data are rising, such as Li Auto $Li Auto(LI)$ , whose monthly sales can create a historical record, so the current market value far exceeds NiO and Xpeng. $XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$ $XPENG-W(09868)$ While NIO's sales have just risen from the dead in July, why the sales in August to September fell back to within 20,000?

The answer depends on how management responds at the earnings meeting!