Divide and Rule
The Hamas terrorist attack launched more than a week ago appears to be aimed mainly at frustrating the normalisation of the State of Israel’s relations with its Arab neighbours. Indeed, Morocco, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates signed peace agreements with Israel in recent years. A similar agreement with Saudi Arabia was imminent. Israel also got on well with Russia with which it struck an occasional coalition in Syria. That leaves only Qatar and Iran. Qatar supports the global terrorist organisation Muslim Brotherhood, of which Hamas is a part. Despite the fact that Hamas is composed of Sunnis, its common enemy Israel ensures that Shia Iran gets along well with Hamas. As so often in the Middle East, the enemy of my enemy is my friend. Qatar does increasingly try to play an independent role, as does Turkey, a country that still does not want to see Hamas as a terror group.
The boss of the Palestinians
Also in the background is the health of Mahmoud Abbas, the 87-year-old leader of the PLO. Abbas has been in power for 18 years, with no elections in between. Hamas is keen to become popular in the West Bank too and take over Fatah’s role. The current right-wing Israeli government recently cracked down on Fatah in the West Bank. Netanyahu does not support the two-state solution, something Fatah has long been pushing for. If Hamas takes power from Abbas, such a solution is definitely off the table.
Israeli soldiers have not been active in Gaza on a large scale since 2005. They opted for the ‘Heras’ solution by putting a fence around it, armed in parts with robot-controlled weapons. That fence has cost almost a billion dollars, but again it appears that, in the end, it is the weakest link that matters. Israel now has almost no choice but to destroy Hamas. Its own people demand it, and any moment of weakness will be exploited by Hamas. Hamas does not represent all Palestinians, not even all Palestinians in Gaza.
The last time there were elections in Gaza was in 2006. The average person in Gaza is 18 years old, which means the vast majority of the population did not choose Hamas. Support for Hamas in Gaza has also ebbed away in recent years. The people of Gaza originally chose Hamas because they opposed Fatah, not so much because they are ideologically aligned. For most people in Gaza, Hamas is now as corrupt as Fatah, and Hamas’ rule in Gaza for the past 16 years is not exactly known as a success now.
Israel currently has four evils to choose from.
The first is a deal with Hamas, including a prisoner swap. In 2011, the life of
Israeli (Gilad Shalit) was worth as much as about 1,000 Palestinians. From a humanitarian point of view, this is the best solution in the short term, but impossible for now given what has happened.
The second option is to bombard Gaza from the air. This has been the response to violence from Gaza in recent years and is the first response this time too. The disadvantage is that there are many innocent casualties. In 2014, airstrikes lost the lives of many thousands in Gaza, also because Hamas is all too happy to use its own population as human shields. An additional problem of airstrikes is that at the end of the day, Hamas is only more firmly in the saddle.
The second option is combined with a far-reaching blockade of Gaza. This too has been used more often in recent years. By cutting off Gaza from various facilities from time to time, Israel was able to get things done in Gaza. This blockade has also meant that 80 per cent of the population now depends on humanitarian aid to survive. There is no economy left in Gaza, but despite this, there is no political change yet.
The last option is a ground offensive, which will ultimately be mainly an underground offensive, something Hamas has probably been preparing for years. This option too probably has only losers, although there is a possibility that Hamas will eventually be wiped off the map. With the latter option, Israel will lose the goodwill it needs with its Arab neighbours.
The driving force behind the escalation is Iran. Clearly, the country is facing tougher sanctions from the US. Interestingly, the Americans, together with Qatar, have now frozen $6 billion in Iranian assets. It is also encouraging to see that Saudi Arabia will probably be willing to compensate for oil that Iran can no longer export. This makes this conflict for the global economy significantly different from the 1973 battle when the Saudis came up with a boycott against the US. However, much will depend on the performance of the Israelis during the ground offensive on the Gaza Strip. Meanwhile, Jews in Western Europe in particular are at risk of becoming victims. Jewish houses in Berlin have already been daubed with Stars of David, and Jewish schools remain closed. In several cities, pro-Palestinian protests are now banned, but the genie is once again out of the bottle.
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