Intel (INTC) Earnings. Option Implied Move suggest Weaker Result.
$Intel(INTC)$ is scheduled to report its Q3 2023 earnings on 26 Oct after market close.
EPS consensus estimate is at $0.22 which is 66% decrease from the same period last year. Revenue estimate to be in the range of12.9 B to 13.9 B, which would be a13% decrease from the same period last year.
Revenue Growth is estimated at-13.0%.Gross Margin is estimated at43.0%.
Intel (INTC) Post Earnings Movement
The options market overestimated INTC stocks earnings move 50% of the time in the last 12 quarters.
The predicted move after earnings announcement was ±6.6% on average vs an average of the actual earnings moves of 7.7% (in absolute terms).
This shows you that INTC tended to be more volatile than the options market predicted for the earnings stock price reaction.
Intel (INTC) Earnings Implied Volatility Crush
INTC's last earnings implied volatility (IV30) going into earnings was 44.8. The last time INTC released earnings, the implied volatility dropped to 30.0, resulting in an implied volume crush of 33%. 5 days after earnings, the 30 day IV was 33.3. You can compare how INTC implied volatility changed around earnings for the last 12 quarters.
Average Implied Volatility Crush For INTC Earnings: 26%
Average 30 Day Implied Volatility 1 Day Before Earnings: 41.9
Average INTC 30 Day IV for the Day of Earnings: 30.7
Average 30 Day Implied Volatility 5 Days After Earnings: 31.4
Intel (INTC) Post Earnings Announcement Drift
INTC share price has drifted down -10.5% post earnings announcement. Using the last 12 quarters data, the average drift between earnings announcements is 3.5%. The current drift represents a negative -0.8 standard deviation move.
Current post earnings announcement drift:-10.5%
Historical average post earnings announcement drift:3.5%
Historical post earnings drift standard deviation move:±13.7%
Summary
Based on what market have been expecting Intel, I would think that we might see a less-than-expected earnings, even though there might be demand of chips for Intel.
Revenue from the data center and AI are expected to slip 7.4% to $3.941 billion, while client computing is forecast to drop by 9.2% to $7.39 billion.
Even with all the hype around AI and data center growth, a miss in that one line item could send share lower by itself.
Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think Intel could give us a surprise on its earnings.
@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.
Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.
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good time to enter. will go lower?