To The Moon

U.S. bond yields hit their largest weekly decline of the 2023 last week. At the same time, since November, the 5DMA of the $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$ price has crossed below the 10-, 20-, 30-, and 50-day moving averages. The market is expecting that considering the suspension of interest rate hikes and the decline in U.S. bond yields, the price of the U.S. dollar will also undergo an adjustment, which will be good for the U.S. stock market. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $DJIA(.DJI)$ While Last week's movements were mainly caused by the combination of the Fed's suspension of interest rate hikes, the narrow of U.S. Treasury's quarterly refinancing plan and the weak non-farm payrolls report, which caused the $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$ to fall and U.S. bond yields to fall. (Since 1980, it is observed that the trend of the U.S. dollar index and the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rate has generally been positively correlated.) But the drop appears to have stalled this week. Will U.S. bond yields continue to fall? Has the turning point in the U.S. bond market arrived? When is it appropriate to invest in $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$, etc.? You know, betting on a reversal in the U.S. bond market has been a failed investment strategy for most of 2023, with every U.S. bond rally being accompanied by a more severe sell-off later. Many institutional analysts have expressed relevant views on the bond market and stock market. Chief strategist Michael Wilson of Morgan Stanley said on Monday:"The decline in U.S. Treasury yields has more to do with lower-than-expected bond issuance guidance and weak economic data rather than an optimistic reading that the Fed will cut interest rates early next year, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ 's best week in a year was just a bear market rebound, and the current rise in U.S. stocks lacks technical and fundamental support. “Wilson was named top portfolio strategist in the latest Institutional Investor Survey. Sonal Desai, chief investment officer for fixed income assets at Franklin Templeton, said: "I think the bond market rebound may have been overdone." She analyzed that there is a view that the Treasury Department does want to support markets but it can't because the size of the budget deficit means there are absolutely limits to what the Treasury can do." Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett, known as "Wall Street's most accurate strategist," recently issued a report stating that technical conditions no longer hinder the . $S&P 500(.SPX)$ from rebounding at the end of 2023, but U.S. stocks remain uncertain in the mid- to long-term. For like the money policies. So what will happen to the $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$ and U.S. bond yields? Investors obviously need to pay close attention to relevant statements from Fed officials in the next few trading days. No less than double digits of senior Fed officials will speak this week, and Fed Chairman Powell will make two consecutive appearances this week. First time, Powell will give an opening speech at an event at 08:15 Eastern Time; Second time at 2 p.m. Eastern Time on Thursday, Powell will also deliver a speech at an expert group meeting hosted by the IMF. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool, the interest rate futures market has currently priced the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in May next year at more than 50%. A week ago, this probability was only 37%. As for U.S. stocks trend, the new quarterly earnings season will be a short-term factor that affects the trend of U.S. stocks. Image Analysts expect $S&P 500(.SPX)$ companies to post earnings growth of 5.7% in the third quarter, with more than 81% of the 403 benchmark index companies that have reported profits beating expectations, according to LSEG. This week, the most watched ones being those of $Walt Disney(DIS)$ $Uber(UBER)$ $Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ $Occidental(OXY)$ and $Warner Bros. Discovery(WBD)$.