To The Moon

On the occasion of sprinting for the last quarterly sales, the 2024 sales forecasts of the domestic new car-making companies have been passed to the supply side.

According to reliable sources, $Li Auto(LI)$ 's 2024 sales forecast exceeds 800,000 units, and according to this year's expected sales of 380,000 units, Li's sales will rise by more than 100% next year.

Meanwhile, $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ gave a sales forecast of more than 230,000 units for 2024, while $XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$ 's sales forecast is more than 280,000 units. It's worth noting that none of the above figures includes Nio and Xpeng Auto's sub-brands, Alpine and MONA.

In the fourth quarter of each year, car companies usually send their sales plans for the following year to the supply chain, promoting the latter to make material, capacity, personnel and capital reserves. The unwritten rule of the industry is that car companies usually give high forecasts, and accordingly, the supply chain will make its own judgment based on the competitiveness of the models and the operating results of the car companies. Therefore, the relevant sales forecast data is more of a reference.

From the forecast, 2024 will be a big model year for Li Motor. By the end of next year, Li will have 8 models on sale. For the first pure electric model MEGA, Li has given a sales forecast of over 80,000 units for the whole year, and the sales of four pure electric models are close to 150,000 units.

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The sales of BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Audi in the Chinese market in 2022 are 792,000, 752,000 and 643,000 respectively, and declining year-on-year. If the forecast is accurate, Li is expected to outperform traditional luxury brands in the market next year.

Compared to conservative strategy last year, Li is quite confident about its 2024 sales, due to the continuous climbing sales momentum. Li reached 40,000 sales per month in October this year.

In a strategy meeting held before the National Day, Li said it would sell more than three million vehicles in 2028. This kind of aggressive sales growth forecast is almost unique in the industry.

However, pure electric cars are an area that Li has never ventured into, and pure electric MPVs are an even more under-proven market. The popular MPV models include the Tengiz D9 Dmi, Buick GL8, and the Transaero M8, all of which are plug-in hybrids or fuel-fired models, and there are no purely electric vehicles yet.

Li has also been fast-tracking the construction of its supercharging network to address the range limitation of pure electric vehicles, with 119 of its 5C supercharging stations already in operation. In its first year of entering the pure electric vehicle market, Li Auto seems to continue the momentum of the extended-range market, giving optimistic forecasts.

Compared with Li Auto, the sales forecasts of Xpeng and Nio are starting to gradually disconnect. However, looking back recent monthly sales, both car makers have rebounded quite a bit and are building on that to hit even stronger growth next year.

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Xpeng has given a 2024 sales forecast of more than 280,000 units. As of October, Xpeng has sold a total of 101,000 vehicles, and if it continues its October delivery of 20,000 units, Xpeng is expected to reach 140,000 units for the year. In other words, according to next year's forecast, Xpeng almost reached 100% increase.

In addition to the G3i, P5, P7, G9, G6 five models, Xpeng is expected to have a purely electric MPV model X9 and a large sedan to enter the market for sale next year.

The flagship model of the new MPV X9, which will go on sale at the end of this year, is regarded as the brand's price ceiling by Xpeng. The company had the high expectations for the model and the new car is expected to average monthly sales of more than 2,000 units next year.

Supported by models such as the G6, Xpeng car has been gradually out of the first half of the decline. In October, Xpeng reached 20,000 monthly sales for the first time, the G6 as the main force contributed 8741 units of sales. However, the price zone of 200,000-300,000 is the most intense price war range, so Xpeng still need to continue to fight with Model Y, ZhiJi LS6, ask the new M7 and other brand models rolled to the extreme next year .

Nio's 2024 sales forecast is over 230,000 units, more pragmatic than this year's forecast of 240,000 units. As of October this year, the cumulative sales of Nio were 126,000 units. If we follow the momentum of 16,000 units in October, the annual sales reached 158,000 units. To put that in perspective, 230,000-unit sales forecast is an increase of about 50 percent next year.

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Next year, Nio's sales will be supported by the 8 models on sale, which means that, in the absence of new cars, Nio will need to maintain sales of nearly 20,000 per month.

At the moment, Nio is also adjusting and optimizing internally, such as reducing investment in marginal businesses, setting up a marketing center at the sales level, and reducing costs by developing its own radar chip. Perhaps there is a waste of investment, but Nio also maintains a reserve of technical resources, innovating of the various lines with small steps. Therefore, it’s possible to maintain monthly sales of 20,000 next year.

The competition in new energy vehicle market in 2024 will not be easier than the current status quo. Li Motor’s sales burden is still in the extended range models--- Pure electric MPV can be bought still need to be verified, but its hands are obviously more chips than peers. As for Xpeng and Nio, both of them need to make the business adjustment as soon as possible, hit the maximum effectiveness with limited bullets.

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