Revenue Growth and Sale Structure 2024 of 2024
Revenue growth and sale structure 2024 🧵
Palantir would have been at $12-$14 if we have only 15-20m shares shorted. Fortunately, institutions are squeezing the shorties that overstayed their welcome and clapped retail investors for 2 years+ after DPO. We never asked for "short" or "long", it is part of the game!
This is a sweet opportunity for Long-term investors both retail and institutions to do covered call at the right strike, duration at the right time.
I believe we may pull 30% growth in 2024, many of these "long" institutions are calling nearly 50% growth because of LLM capitalization. We want to be conservative here. The average landing big contracts from Government is around 2-3 years after the initial "free": like NHSuk, various U.S. agencies. I expect Ukraine, Nato members/countries, Quad members/countries to award large contracts at some point in 2024.
Of course, the DeptofDefense is our largest customer.
To give you some different timelines:
-In July 2022, Palantir received a two-year, $99.9 million contract to help the Army Research Laboratory implement data and AI capabilities to support DOD’s combatant commands.
-The software company also secured a $299 million contract extension in September 2022 to continue working with the laboratory on AI and machine learning experimentation and implementation.
-On September 26, 2023, Palantir Receives $250M Army Contract for AI/ML R&D Services!
The trend is 12-36 months for continuous contracts from the DOD, and Palantir is likely to secure most of the "R&D" results after or during these 3 years fixed price research service.
While federalreserve
FFR is this high, and will remain high in 2024 comparing to Covid or pre-Covid era, government revenue will be more stable. We should also expect more impactful revenue contribution from #AIP commercial somewhere in Summer to Winter 2024(12-24 months lag).
I expect management to improve on this over the long-term to reduce this flywheel sale structure down to within 12 months. And substantially reduce the cost to initiate these pilots, AKA better contribution margin, better Cash Flow production, better bottom line.
"Hyper-Scale" will be added later on after "Scale" for big existing clients. These "Hyper-Scale" revenue sources will be hyper profitable, where contribution margin at 70%+. Yea good luck explaining this is consultancy at this kind of margin.
30% growth in 2024 is my call or $2.86B in 2024, which will require Palantir to capture extra $60-$70m per quarter or $240m-280m more in 2024. Many will say even 30% is too optimistic, and you are right to be skeptical since global economy is going to slow significantly in 2024. However, Palantir's business is unique, and its sale structure allows this kind of growth lag to happen. Hence, customer count is the most critical data for Palantir investors!
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
