To The Moon

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ has closed above $250 at last night (14 Dec) trading. Tesla is making a decisive move from its 50-day moving average, approaching an aggressive early entry, as the EV giant appears to be flashing a buy signal.

Tesla stock gained around 20% in November ahead of its Tesla Cybertruck delivery event and TSLA has continued its advance in December.

Tesla (TSLA) Third Quarter Deliveries and Financials

Tesla's vehicle deliveries in the third quarter of 2023 amounted to over 435,000 units. Quarterly deliveries decreased by around 6.67 percent during the third quarter of 2023, compared with the second quarter of that same year. Between April and June 2023, deliveries crossed the 466,000 unit threshold, a new record for the brand.

Tesla reported worse-than-expected Q financials on 18 Oct, which cause the shares to fall. Market analysts have start questioning Tesla’s near-term strategy.

Will a growth stock like Tesla still able to perform if its earning per share is not going up in 2024. In November, we do see Tesla performing well ahead of the Tesla Cybertruck delivery event and has been steadily advancing since those first 12 vehicles went to customers.

Tesla Targets Record Q4

Tesla has set a target to deliver 1.8 million vehicles in 2023, if we look at the China Insurance registrations for Tesla in Q4, we would be expecting around 119,900 of vehicle deliveries for the fourth quarter. This is more than 7% as compared to the same period in Q3.

The number of China registrations through Q4 is also 8% higher than the same point in Q2 when Tesla delivered a record 156,676 vehicles in China.

Tesla needs to average 12,300 registrations per week for the remaining three weeks in Q4 to break its Q2 China deliveries record.

Tesla sold 82,432 China-made vehicles in November, up 14.3% from 72,115 in October, breaking two straight months of sequential declines in sales. Of those deliveries, 65,504 were in China with the rest exported, representing a 129% increase compared to October and up nearly 5% vs. last year.

Tesla Cybertruck Event

On Nov. 30, Tesla delivered 12 Cybertrucks during an event at its Austin, Texas, factory with pomp and circumstance. Chief Executive Elon Musk outlining key specs for the hotly anticipated vehicle.

"We have a car here that experts said was impossible, that experts said would never be made," Musk told the crowd Thursday at the event.

"I think it's our best product. I think it's the most unique thing on the road, and finally, the future will look like the future," Musk added.

The EV giant is offering three trims of the Cybertruck, with the rear-wheel drive version starting at $60,990 with a 250 mile range. The base model will be available in 2025, according to Tesla's website.

The all-wheel drive version has a starting price of $79,990 with 340 miles of range. Tesla is also offering a top end trim, called the Cyberbeast, starting at $99,990 with a 320 mile range. Both the all-wheel drive version and the Cyberbeast have 2024 deliveries.

Four years ago, Tesla announced the price would start at $39,900. Since then, Musk had repeatedly said he wanted to price the base model under $50,000. Originally, Tesla and Musk stated the tri-motor Cybertruck would have 500 miles of range with the dual-motor model managing 300 miles and the base rear-wheel version getting 250 miles per charge.

The Tesla Cybertruck all-wheel drive option currently qualifies for the full $7,500 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) tax credit, according to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) site.Summary

Tesla (TSLA) Price Forecast - Short Term

Tesla price started in 2023 at $123.18. Today, Tesla traded at $251.05, so the price increased by 104% from the beginning of the year.

The forecasted Tesla price at the end of next week 22 Dec 2023 is $256 - and the year to year change +112%. The rise from today to end of next week : +4%.

Tesla (TSLA) Price Forecast - Long Term

According to the latest long-term forecast, in the first half of 2024, the Tesla price will climb to $282; in the second half, the price would add $9 and close the year at $291, which is +16% to the current price.

Tesla price will hit $350 by the middle of 2025, before closing 2025 near $400.

Summary

As I foresee that Tesla should be able to do well in 2024, with their new cybertruck, there should be market demand. U.S. economy are now closer to 2% inflation, though there is worries of a impending recession.

Tesla should be able to take advantage of lower borrowing cost to roll out more projects. I will be updating these short term and long term price forecast as I see much changes as we navigate the market.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think Tesla would be able to create a WoW effect with its cybertruck halo.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.