To The Moon

Bitcoin (BTC) price hit a weekly timeframe peak of $42,200 on 26 Jan (last Friday), up from the 50-day low of $39,000 recorded on 23 Jan 2024.

In the last 48 hours, Bitcoin investors have moved over 5,000 BTC into long-term storage as the position for a bullish start to February. 

BTC Worth $578M Shifted into Long-term Savings in the Last 48 Hours 

On 11 Jan, Bitcoin suffered bearish price action after the SEC delivered a spot ETF approval verdict. This is due to speculators took advantage of the media euphoria to book profits. Now, the Bitcoin ETFs have traded for three full weeks, and the media hype and “sell-the-news” wave has cooled off.

After fiercely defending the $39,000 support, bullish Bitcoin investors are now making strategic moves to stage a significant price rebound in February. 

Cryptoquant’s exchange supply data monitors real-time changes in the number of BTC coins deposited across trading platforms. The latest readings shows that BTC holders have shifted a significant chunk of BTC off exchanges since the rebound phase began around 25 Jan (Thursday). 

As shown below, a total of 2,101,252.0508 BTC was deposited in crypto exchange-hosted wallets as of 29 Jan (Monday). Interestingly, that figure has dropped rapidly to 2,087,479.937 at time of writing on 31 Jan.

This implies that investors have moved 13,773 BTC into long-term savings within the last 48 hours. 

A decline in exchange supply is bullish for two major reasons. Firstly, it indicates that investors are opting for long-term storage rather than seek out short-term profit opportunities on trading platforms. 

In additional to the positive sentiment, it also means that a significantly lesser number of coins available to be traded on exchanges. Valued at the intraday average price of $42,000 on Jan 31, the 13,773 BTC shifted from exchanges are worth approximately $580 million. 

With such a large deficit in spot market supply, an increase in demand in the coming week could trigger a major Bitcoin price breakout toward $45,000. 

BTC Price Trading Within Parallel Channel

After the BTC price soared beyond $38,000, the BTC price has been trading within a parallel channel  Bitcoin has also trapped the bulls and the bears by displaying a fake breakout and breakdown below the channel. Now that the shorts and longs have been fulfilled, the momentum of the rally has slashed, due to which the pressure on either side has waned to a large extent

Besides, the price continues to remain stuck between the 50 & 100 days MA levels, which are acting as strong resistance and support levels at $39,975 & $42,800, respectively

Hence, moving beyond any of these levels may validate the trend. However, the DMI is flashing bearish signals, with the ADX failing to rise. Hence, the BTC price could chop below $43,000 for some more time before a breakout. 

Possible Of A Significant Resistance Sell-wall at the 20-day SMA At $42,500

Bitcoin price looks set to revisit $45,000 in February as market events show that selling pressure from the post-ETF approval euphoria has cooled and investors have recently shifted $580 million into long-term savings. 

However, the Bollinger Bands signal highlights the key reversal points that could impact Bitcoin price action in the coming week. The technical indicator depicts that the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) price of $42,289 poses a major initial resistance.

But if the bulls can stage a significant breakout above that zone, BTC price could rebound toward $45,000 in February 2024 as predicted. Still, the bears could regain control if they can force a reversal below $39,000. But as highlighted by the lower Bollinger Band, the bulls could regroup at the $39,534 area to prevent further losses.

Time to Look Into COIN, MSTR, MARA

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ is having a bullish crossover recently when MACD cross the signal, that happen when we saw Bitcoin began its rebound at around 25 Jan, last Thursday.

So we might want to pay attention to how Bitcoin would be moving for its bullish rebound, and COIN should be able to benefit from it as well.

$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ has also began its bullish rebound on 25 Jan, when Bitcoin has a nice rebound, we could be seeing Bitcoin staying around the $43k ish range for quite a while. As mentioned in above section, we have seen a large amount of BTC movement into long-term savings.

MicroStrategy has quite a significant amount of BTC in its holdings, so this is one crypto stocks to look out.

$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$ has also show MACD bullish crossover near 25 Jan, this would mean that correlation of MARA to BTC did not reduce, and MARA is funding its operating expenses with selling BTC. BTC price going above $45k would be good for MARA.

Summary

As we can see that there are significant breakout that bulls can stage, but we need to be aware of bears who could be forcing BTC down to below $39,000, then they will regain control.

One way we can look at is checking the Bitcoin reserve chart and we could see how BTC have been moved.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think BTC would be able to stage a bullish rebound and hence benefit these 3 crypto stocks?

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.